Don Best shows this game opening at -6 and it is currently at -4 across the board. I'm following the squares (what else is new?) and taking Toledo + in this matchup.
In light of my handicapping (aka guesswork), this is more of a play against WRIGHT than a play on Toledo.
I think the hidden statistics in this matchup lie in the ATS margins of cover in WRIGHT'S last three games.
In their most recent game, WRIGHT +8 got the loss/cover @ Ball State, 59-66. They covered by a point.
In their previous game, they were a -5 point Home Fav v Morehead State and got the win/cover, 80-74. Again, they covered by a point.
Three games ago, they were a -2' point Home Fav v Mia, O and got the win/cover, 51-48. By the slimmest of margins, they covered by a half point.
I like my chances with a Toledo team (which just won/covered as a Home Fav by an ATS margin of +6) against a WRIGHT STATE team which has been playing it a little too close to the ATS vest for my liking.
In light of my handicapping (aka guesswork), this is more of a play against WRIGHT than a play on Toledo.
I think the hidden statistics in this matchup lie in the ATS margins of cover in WRIGHT'S last three games.
In their most recent game, WRIGHT +8 got the loss/cover @ Ball State, 59-66. They covered by a point.
In their previous game, they were a -5 point Home Fav v Morehead State and got the win/cover, 80-74. Again, they covered by a point.
Three games ago, they were a -2' point Home Fav v Mia, O and got the win/cover, 51-48. By the slimmest of margins, they covered by a half point.
I like my chances with a Toledo team (which just won/covered as a Home Fav by an ATS margin of +6) against a WRIGHT STATE team which has been playing it a little too close to the ATS vest for my liking.
