Writers and Talking Heads Picks

Old School · Jan 22, 2010

:0corn Pete Prisco
CBS Sports

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=left><TD colSpan=5>Sunday, Jan. 24, 2010</TD></TR><TR id=special class=bg4 align=left><TD colSpan=3 align=left>NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts</TD></TR><TR id=rowSpan class=bg2 height=17 vAlign=top align=right><TD width="10%" align=left>

10</TD><TD rowSpan=2 width="90%" align=left>The Jets will come into this game with one thing on their minds: Control the football. They will want to unleash their top-ranked running game on the Colts, keeping Peyton Manning off the field. They will try and limit the passing attempts by Mark Sanchez to keep him from making mistakes. But that's a tough strategy to use against a Colts team that can score. If the Colts can get up 10-0, the Jets will be in trouble. And I think they will. The Jets are a blitz-happy group under coach Rex Ryan, and Manning feasts on teams that blitz him. The Jets have a great cover player in corner Darrelle Revis, and he will likely be matched up on Reggie Wayne, but that won't stop the Colts from attacking him or the rest of the secondary. Manning will take his shots, and hit a few of them. The question then becomes whether the Jets can get theirs. Sanchez has made strides in the playoffs, but asking him to keep up with Manning is dangerous for the Jets. They can't get into a shootout. The other thing to consider here is how well the Colts defense is playing. It shut down a good Baltimore running game last week. Indy is much bigger inside on defense than in year's past. That will help against that Jets running game. Teams that can't pass with consistency have problems against the Colts. Manning will get to his second Super Bowl with three touchdown passes. The Jets' run comes to an end.

:0corn

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27</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR id=special class=bg4 align=left><TD colSpan=3 align=left>Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints</TD></TR><TR id=rowSpan class=bg2 height=17 vAlign=top align=right><TD width="10%" align=left>

27</TD><TD rowSpan=2 width="90%" align=left>This is a game that features two hot quarterbacks, two teams that can run the ball, and defenses that played really well last week. The Saints are really tough at home, which gives them the edge here. The Vikings were all over Tony Romo last week, sacking him six times. But Brees gets the ball out faster. It will be tougher to get to him. If the Vikings can't get to Brees, they have to keep their hands up. At 6-feet tall, Brees sometimes can have a tough time throwing over defensive linemen at times. The Vikings have to force him to check the ball down as well. If Brees can get the deep passing game going, Minnesota will be in big trouble. The Vikings will pound Adrian Peterson to set up Brett Favre taking shots down the field. That will put a lot of pressure on a New Orleans defense that struggled down the stretch, but played well last week in the rout of Arizona. I don't think either defense will play close to the way they played last week. Not with these offenses. Favre and Brees will both have success with shots down the field. That could lead to a score with the winning team in the low 30s. The big edge will come for the home team. The Vikings defense isn't as good away from their dome. Inside this one, Brees will have success. Look for Jeremy Shockey to get two scores in the middle of the field as the Saints get to their first Super Bowl.

:0corn

Harmon Forecast: Conference Championship

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<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=left><TD colSpan=4>Sunday, Jan. 24, 2010</TD></TR><TR id=special class=bg4 align=left><TD colSpan=2 align=left>NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts</TD></TR><TR id=rowSpan class=bg2 height=17 vAlign=top align=right><TD width="10%" align=left>

20</TD><TD rowSpan=2 width="90%" align=left>The Jets and rookie QB Mark Sanchez find themselves one game away from the Super Bowl, but the Colts are a very tall order. A big game from the Jets' defense will be crucial to them staying afloat in this game, but it doesn't necessarily guarantee a win. Colts QB Peyton Manning was intercepted twice (one of which was overturned due to a penalty) and sacked twice by the Ravens last week, but he still put up 246 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Colts' defense will look to suppress Jets RB Shonn Greene like they did to Baltimore's Ray Rice, and then force turnovers by pressuring Sanchez.

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16</TD></TR><TR id=special class=bg4 align=left><TD colSpan=2 align=left>Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints</TD></TR><TR id=rowSpan class=bg2 height=17 vAlign=top align=right><TD width="10%" align=left>

26</TD><TD rowSpan=2 width="90%" align=left>The Saints' defense wasn't particularly great against the pass this season, but they were able to run over Kurt Warner and the Cardinals last week. Against Minnesota, they will be tasked with stopping the Brett Favre-Sidney Rice combo, as Rice accounted for three of Favre's four touchdown passes against the Cowboys last week. Saints QB Drew Brees was in vintage form himself last week, passing for 247 yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings also have a weapon that the Cardinals didn't in RB Adrian Peterson, who put up lackluster numbers against Dallas but largely was not needed, since the Minnesota passing game was so successful.</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 height=17 vAlign=top align=right><TD align=left>

21</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Old School · Jan 22, 2010

:0corn
CBSSports.com's NFL staff picks against the spread

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=left><TD colSpan=8>Conference Championship</TD></TR><TR class=bg4 align=left><TD>Game</TD><TD>Harmon</TD><TD>Prisco</TD><TD>Judge</TD><TD>Urbano</TD><TD>Madden</TD><TD>Richard</TD><TD>vs.
Spread

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 height=17 vAlign=top align=right><TD width="20%" align=left>N.Y. Jets
Indianapolis (-7.5)

</TD><TD width="11%" align=middle>

</TD><TD width="11%" align=middle>

</TD><TD width="10%" align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=bg2 height=17 vAlign=top align=right><TD width="20%" align=left>Minnesota

New Orleans (-3.5)
The experts:
Harmon Forecast

Pete Prisco - CBSSports.com Senior writer

Clark Judge - CBSSports.com Senior writer

Greg Urbano - NBA Producer

Peter Madden - CBSSports.com Managing Editor, Fantasy Sports

Dave Richard - CBSSports.com Senior Fantasy writer

</TD><TD width="11%" align=middle>

</TD><TD width="11%" align=middle>

</TD><TD width="10%" align=middle></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Old School · Jan 22, 2010

:0corn

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 sizset="15" sizcache="0"><TBODY sizset="15" sizcache="0"><TR class=stathead><TD colSpan=11>NFL Expert Picks - Conference Championships</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD></TD><TD align=middle>Allen</TD><TD align=middle>Golic</TD><TD align=middle>Hoge</TD><TD align=middle>Jaworski</TD><TD align=middle>Mortensen</TD><TD align=middle>Schefter</TD><TD align=middle>Schlereth</TD><TD align=middle>Wickersham</TD><TD align=middle>Accuscore</TD><TD align=middle>SportsNation</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow sizset="15" sizcache="0"><TD></TD><TD class=img align=middle>

</TD><TD class=img align=middle>

</TD><TD class=img align=middle sizset="15" sizcache="0">

</TD><TD class=img align=middle sizset="16" sizcache="0">

</TD></TR><TR class="evenrow team-28-11 team-28-20" sizset="17" sizcache="0"><TD sizset="17" sizcache="0">NYJ @ IND
Sun 3:00PM

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts Indianapolis

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts Indianapolis

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts Indianapolis

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts Indianapolis

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts Indianapolis

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Jets New York

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts Indianapolis

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts Indianapolis

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts Indianapolis

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts Indianapolis

</TD></TR><TR class="oddrow team-28-18 team-28-16" sizset="18" sizcache="0"><TD sizset="18" sizcache="0">MIN @ NO
Sun 6:40PM

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Saints New Orleans

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Vikings Minnesota

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Saints New Orleans

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Saints New Orleans

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Saints New Orleans

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Vikings Minnesota

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Saints New Orleans

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Vikings Minnesota

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Saints New Orleans

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Vikings Minnesota

</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=middle>Last Week</TD><TD align=middle>Allen
2-2

</TD><TD align=middle>Golic
1-3

</TD><TD align=middle>Hoge
1-3

</TD><TD align=middle>Jaworski
3-1

</TD><TD align=middle>Mortensen
2-2

</TD><TD align=middle>Schefter
2-2

</TD><TD align=middle>Schlereth
2-2

</TD><TD align=middle>Wickersham
1-3

</TD><TD align=middle>Accuscore
3-1

</TD><TD align=middle>SportsNation
3-1

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=right bgColor=#ffffff font="arial"><TD align=middle>Through Playoff
Week 2

</TD><TD align=middle>Allen
5-3

</TD><TD align=middle>Golic
3-5

</TD><TD align=middle>Hoge
3-5

</TD><TD align=middle>Jaworski
3-5

</TD><TD align=middle>Mortensen
4-4

</TD><TD align=middle>Schefter
3-5

</TD><TD align=middle>Schlereth
4-4

</TD><TD align=middle>Wickersham
3-5

</TD><TD align=middle>Accuscore
4-4

</TD><TD align=middle>SportsNation
3-5

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:0corn

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

ok if I add some :shrug:

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

NEW YORK JETS (11-7) at INDIANAPOLIS (15-2)

VEGAS LINE: INDIANAPOLIS BY 7? -- OVER/UNDER: 40?

Will it come back to haunt them? The remarkable run of the Jets has resulted in their first title game since '98. But it was all made possible when the Colts, who stood at 14-0, with a 15-10 late 3rd quarter lead over NY, decided to pull Manning, along with a crew of starters. Had Indy won that game, not only would it be headed for a possible perfect season, but the Jets would have been eliminated from postseason play. But here they are, with the top "D" in the NFL, along with a punishing running game, led by Greene, who has gone for 135 & 128 yds vs the Bengals & Chargers (6.4 & 5.6 ypr). And that includes a 53-yd TD run vs SanDiego, which is the longest run in Jet playoff history. QB Sanchez, who was a turnover machine in the early going, has kept mistakes to a minimum, & he joins the Ravens' Flacco as the only NFL rookie QBs to win 2 playoff games as starters. And as noted, that "D" is superb, allowing only 9.4 pgg in its last 8 contests. But, can it contain the
exploits of the masterful Manning? He had little overland help last week (1.7 ypr), but consistently frustrated that stellar Raven "D", with crucial 3rd & 4th down pass completions. That win snapped Indy's 3-game losing streak in playoffs following a
bye. The Colts are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meaningful games, scoring at a 28.5 ppg clip in those contests. As usual, their "D" put up less than impressive stats in the regular season (18th overall, 25th vs the run), but you wouldn't know it from that smothering of Baltimore.

The Jets have won & covered their last 5 RGs, but the SU winner is 26-1 ATS in NY games.
We just can't see Indy failing to advance.

INDIANAPOLIS 23 - New York Jets 13

=========================

MINNESOTA (13-4) at NEW ORLEANS (14-3)

VEGAS LINE: NEW ORLEANS BY 4? -- OVER/UNDER: 52?

Positively astonishing. The only way to describe the absolute complete reversal of one Brett Favre's fortunes. From a retired ex-super star, who finished his career a year ago, with a dismal second half showing with the Jets, resulting in an NFLleading 22 interceptions, to a revitalized leader, who not only ranks 2nd best in QB ratings (37 TDs, just 7 INTs), but has taken his new team to the NFC title game. Incredible! Try a playoff career high 4 TDs in the Vikings' rout of Dallas. It also
marked the 6th time he has reached at least 3 TDs in the post-season, with this, his 24th playoff start. Not bad for a 40-yd old has-been. Of course, Minny is more
han Brett. But he was certainly the missing key. The Viking "D" has been a bit overlooked, but it ranks 5th in the NFL, & was superb vs the Cowboys, sacking Romo 6 times, while forcing him into 3 TOs. But repeating that effort vs this Saint
squad is a tall order. After seeming to drift through the 2nd half of its season, New Orleans has returned to its early season status, which saw it reach 45, 48, 48, & 46 pts in 4 of its first 6 games. In their drubbing of Arizona, the Saints scored TDs in 5 of their 6 first half possessions, with Brees (NFL's top-ranked QB: 71%, along
with a Favre matching 37 TD) doing his thing, & Bush emerging as the brilliant force expected, when he was drafted out of USC (16.8 ypr, along with an 83-yd punt return vs the Cards).

First-ever title game in the Superdome, so worth noting that the home team has covered the last 8 games involving the Vikings, by 148? pts ATS.

This one has all the ingredients, but the Saints, at home, the way to go.

NEW ORLEANS 30 - Minnesota 20

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

*Indianapolis over New York Jets by 3

During the last 19 years, 73 percent of the Super Bowl winners had a bye in the first round of the postseason.The Jets are the lone team attempting
to buck that trend this season.The Jets have bucked many things to even get this far needing to win their final two regular-season games. Their
accomplishment in achieving that was somewhat tarnished by both the Colts and Bengals resting starters and not going all-out.The Bengals paid for
their mistake in the wildcard round. The Jets finally earned their national due with a big road upset of San Diego.While we?re not ready to chauffer Rex Ryan on a Super Bowl victory parade, the Jets have covered eight of the past 10 times they?ve been underdogs. They also are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Can their remarkable run continue? It could when you consider that all the pressure really is on Indianapolis.The Jets have been playing on house money and doing remarkably well with it.They are a loose bunch.Any team that ranks No. 1 in defense and in rushing like the Jets d ois a dangerous foe.As great as Peyton Manning is ? and he may very well be the greatest quarterback of all time ? the Colts are just 8-8 in the playoffs during the Manning era. The Jets have the great cover cornerback in Darrelle Revis to keep Reggie Wayne in check. Manning has other weapons, though, primarily tight end Dallas Clark. Indy?s running game leaves much to be desired, however, ranking last averaging less than 81 yards per game. Joseph Addai hasn?t looked good all year. Manning is so talented that he can carry the attack without a ground attack. Ryan isn?t afraid to gamble and blitz. Manning has such poise and quickness in his release that he could exploit single coverage if the Jets do decide to blitz. It?s absolutely imperative for the Jets to keep Manning off the field.The key is that the Jets are built to do just that because they have a bruisingrushing game featuring Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene running behind one of the best offensive lines in the game that features four first-round draft picks.The Jets churned out a league-best 2,756 yards rushing. The Colts are small and not overwhelming on defense. Their defense is more bend-but-not-break. Indianapolis ranked 24th in run defense, although those numbers are a tad bit skewed since the Colts yielded 450 yards on the ground during the last two weeks while resting starters. The Jets can pound this defense. Mark Sanchez hasn?t played like the rookie he is down the stretch. He?s executed New York?s game plan well, has made clutch throws and most important has thrown just one interception in the last four games.The Colts have the edge pass rushers with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to bother Sanchez in obvious passing situations. So things could get ugly if the Jets fall too far behind. But that hasn?t happened so far. Still, it?s nearly impossible to reach the Super Bowl with a one-dimensional offense. Chances are Sanchez will have to make big plays in a tough road setting ? this one being in a loud dome ? for the Jets? amazing streak to continue.The Colts seemed on their way to a victory when they met the Jets in the second-to-last regular-season game, leading 15-10 at home in the third quarter. Colts coach Jim Caldwell then made the controversial decision to pull Manning and other key players.The Jets came back to win 29-15 costing Indianapolis its chance at an undefeated season.

Now the Jets have the opportunity to prove they are indeed for real.There won?t be any help this time for New York.

INDIANAPOLIS 23-20

========================

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

Minnesota over *New Orleans by 3

The NFC playoffs were stacked with good teams this season, but in the end t?s fitting that the two best offenses are still remaining. Both Minnesota and New Orleans are deserving finalists. The Saints scored an NFL-high 64 touchdowns, with the Vikings placing second.There?s plenty of excitement in the New Orleans air as the Saints host their first-ever NFC championship game in their biggest game ever.With that comes pressure, though.Will the Saints wilt? New Orleans has failed to cover seven of the past 10 times when laying a field goal or more. Minnesota was devastating in the Metrodome going 9-0.The Vikings were just 4-4 on the road. But our nod goes to Minnesota.The Vikings and Brett Favre won?t be intimidated on the road.They are used to playing on carpet inside a dome, where they are at their best. Favre had a remarkable 28-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 11 dome games this season. Drew Brees is a great quarterback, too. He has receiving weapons that can match Favre?s with Marques Colston and all-purpose back Reggie Bush, who was at his dynamic best last week.The Vikings, however, have the better talent level with an NFL-best nine players named to the Pro Bowl.The Vikings also have the better pass rush headed by NFC sack-leader Jared Allen, are stronger versus the run and have the better ground attack spearheaded by Adrian Peterson. Minnesota has the steadier place-kicker, too, in reliable veteran Ryan Longwell.The key to the game is putting pressure on each quarterback since both Brees and Favre can pick apart any defense when given time to throw.The Vikings have several outstanding pass rushers, who are made quicker when playing on artificial turf.Will Smith is New Orleans? best pass rusher.That?s about it since defensive end Charles Grant is out.The Saints? linebackers are mediocre at best and their secondary has been vulnerable although it has gotten healthier. Cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter did an excellent job controlling Larry Fitzgerald in the Saints? 45-14 dismantling of the Cardinals at home last Saturday. But these defenders aren?t nearly good enough to contend with Minnesota?s multi-dimensional offense.The Vikings had six players with 40 or more catches, just the second offense to accomplish that feat since 1983. Favre compiled his highest passer rating ever throwing to Sidney Rice, who enjoyed a breakout season into superstar status, Bernard Berrian, tight end Visanthe Shiancoe and all purpose back Percy Harvin along with Chester Taylor out of the backfield. The Vikings? back seven is vulnerable to Brees, especially with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson out and cornerback Antoine Winfield not 100 percent. Unlike the Saints, though, the Vikings? front four is strong against the run and they have excellent pass rushers. Because of that, the Vikings will have the luxury of dropping seven players into coverage restricting Brees? options. The Saints, on the other hand, will have to blitz since their defensive line doesn?t match Minnesota?s. Favre can take advantage of this with his quick release, veteran savvy, running the always-dangerous Peterson on draw plays, hitting Harvin on quick short strikes, or flipping screen passes to Taylor.The Saints may have been the best team when they opened 13-0. They finished the regular-season playing lousy against Dallas and Tampa Bay and then resting their starters at Carolina in Week 17 to finish 13-3.

So are the Saints as bad as they were during the last three weeks of the regular season, or as good as they looked last week.
The answer lies in middle and that won?t be good enough to beat an excellent Minnesota team.

MINNESOTA 27-24.

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

NEW YORK at INDIANAPOLIS

The AFC comes full circle here. Having already dispatched CIN in the Wildcard Rd the Jets have the opportunity to take out the other team that essentially gifted them a playoff spot. IND had a 15-10 lead after the 1st drive of the 2H in the 1st meeting when they pulled Manning and the rest of the starters. At that point IND had 16-7 FD and 254-115 yd edges and the Jets TD came when Brad Smith returned the 2H?s opening KO 106 yds for a TD. However the combo of Jones and Greene had 68 yds (4.5) rushing in the 1H. The Jets #1D sk?d Indy QB Painter on his 2nd series forcing a fumble which they ret?d to take the lead and the run D took over. LW was a story of 2 halves for the Jets as while they were outgained 212-99 in the 1H they allowed just 1 TD as SD missed 2 FG?s. In the 2H the Jets had a 163-132 yd edge and held SD to just 9 yds on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H. IND quieted doubters about how ready they would be after shutting it down for the final 2 games. The Colts #18 defense used their impressive team speed to hold Rice to just 67 yds (5.2). The AFC East and South matched up vs each other TY with the Jets going 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS while IND went 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS. Surprisingly there were no common foes outside of these matchups. The Jets are 7-3 SU and 7 ATS on the road with a 23-18 avg score and are 5-2 SU and ATS as a dog (19-16). IND is 8-1 SU and 4-5 ATS at home with a 23-28 avg score and 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS as a fav (27-18). Manning is 4-1 SU/ATS vs a Rex Ryan defense avg 227 ypg (62%) with a 9-2 ratio.
Rex Ryan took the same formula that got the ?08 Ravens into the playoffs with a rookie HC and QB by relying on their #1 rush attack and #1 D. Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to start and win the first 3 gms of a yr (202 ypg, 59%, 4-2) S/?69. He then avg?d 169 ypg (49%) with a 6-14 ratio in his next 7 starts (1-6 SU/ATS) until Ryan got involved with the ?color code system.? Since then he?s avg 131 ypg (59%) with a 2-4 ratio except for the TB gm (knee sprain) but LW joined BAL?s Flacco as the only rookie QB?s to win 2 Playoff games. The Jets boldly traded for Edwards and he still has a tendency to drop balls (49% catch rate with NYJ). Cotchery is back to being a solid #2 and TE Keller rounds out a decent rec unit. The backbone of the #20 offense is RB?s Greene and Jones who along with SD?s Tomlinson and STL?s Jackson are the only active RB?s with 5 str 1,000 yd seasons. Jones finished 3rd in rushing TY thanks to a formidable OL that has started all 16 together. Greene has been the star of the playoffs leading the league with 263 (6.0). Over the L6 reg season games the D held opposing QB?s to a comb 33.7 passer rating with 1,054 ypg (43%) and a 1-10 ratio. The Jets are the 1st tm to lead the NFL in scoring D, total D and rush offense since the 1986 Bears. The best NFL CB in ?09 has been Revis who leads the NFL with 37 pd and hasn?t all?d an opposing WR to have more than 50 yds TY. The ILB?s are Scott and Harris who didn?t miss a beat with the loss of NT Jenkins in run support. While the Jets are just 18th in sks it?s misleading as they own an 8-17 ratio. Shaun Ellis is a rare active pass rushing DE in a 3-4 (hybrid) and has 6.5 sks. Pouha has done a good job taking over at NT since the loss of Jenkins and NYJ have all?d 93 ypg rush (3.6) since 10/18 (BUF). The Jets ST are an avg group (#14) which isn?t bad as they?ve cycled 7 P?s thru since the draft and aren?t the same with the loss of Washington.
Despite the outcry over the loss of ?a perfect season? the fact is that the Colts have 7 str seasons of 12 or more wins which is a record. Manning has won his 4th MVP which he earned with 5 str come-from-behind wins TY and the Colts are the only team in the NFL with DD wins and playoff berths since realignment. What makes this season standout is the changeover at WR with 2nd yr WR Garcon and rookie Collie taking over for departed Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez who sprained his knee in Wk 1. Despite their inexperience IND finished in the Top 10 (9th) in ttl offense for the 10th time in 11 yrs. The Colts have 5 players in the top 100 for rec?s TY with Wayne and Clark tying for 5th with 100 rec?s. Clark is the 2nd TE in NFL history with 100 rec?s and the Colts offset their #32 run game with Addai in the short pass game (51 rec, 6.6). They have struggled in the short yardage area which is where Brown was supposed to help out but he?s been bothered by a shoulder inj. IND?s 13 sks all?d is the 4th time in 5 years the Colts OL has given up 15 or fewer sks. They didn?t have a 100 yd rusher in any game TY and only broke that number as a team 3x?s TY. Despite finishing 25th vs the run (4.3) the D under DC Coyer is improved allowing 112 ypg (4.1) prior to the Jets/Bills. IND also places much more emphasis on spd and sure tackling than other teams. They allowed an NFL best 27 pass plays of 20 or more yds and gave up a 19-16 ratio (3 TD?s vs BUF) which is a big dropoff from LY?s 6-15 ratio. FS Bethea is the only player in the secondary to start all 16 TY and had an All-Pro season. Brackett remains a steady force in the middle but the team doesn?t place much priority on LB?s. Mathis and Freeney combined for 23 sks despite basically resting for 3 games at the EOY. Once again IND struggled on special teams finishing 31st in our rankings due to some very poor return units (22.2 KR, 5.2 PR).
Only twice in the L/12Y has a team pulled B2B road upsets in the 1st two rounds of the playoffs (NYG ?07 and CAR ?05). The Jets have matched that feat and are now playing away from home for the 5th time in 7 wks. The Jets have the league?s #1 defense and did hold SD to 14 pts but allowed 344 yds LW. The Colts transformed in the post season and the veteran defense held Baltimore to 12 FD?s in their 20-3 win. The Colts have now gone UNDER in 5 of 6 playoff games as Manning makes very few mistakes. The Jets showed again LW that they will continue to run the ball and chew up the clock and keep Sanchez on a short leash. This sets up well for another low scoring game and we?ll use another of our special 3H totals.

Colts/Jets UNDER

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS

This game is the matchup the fans were hoping for late in the year when they were competing for the #1 seed. Both teams easily dispatched their foes LW as they took advantage of key injuries. ARZ was running man to man prior to CB Rodgers-Cromartie injury (knee) then Brees (247 yds 72% 3-0) dismantled an undermanned zone defense. MIN?s defense swarmed the DAL OL after LT Adams (calf strain) left. Then DAL shifted protection to the left so the Vikings went after RT Columbo. Romo was held to 63 yds (56%) with a 0-1 ratio in the 2H & DAL only crossed midfield on their initial drive of the 2H. MIN is 4-4 SU & ATS on the road dropping 4 of their L5 ATS. They are 1-1 SU & ATS as a dog losing to PIT but beating GB by 12. NO is 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home failing to cover 4 of their L5 ATS in regular season. NO is 14-2 SU & 9-7 ATS as a favorite but has only covered 3 times in that role since Nov. There are 6 common foes here (DET, STL, ARZ, CAR, NYG, DAL) with MIN going 5-2 SU & ATS with a 357-312 yd edge (+6 TO?s) & 28-14 avg score. NO went 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS with a 401-355 yd edge (-5 TO?s) and a 32-23 avg score.
In ?08 MIN finished 17th in total off, 25th in pass, 12th in pts and was -6 TO?s. TY behind a 40 yr old QB they finished 5th in total off, 8th in pass, 2nd in pts and were +6 in TO?s. MIN knew they were a veteran QB away from being a serious contender for the Super Bowl. When Favre decided to come out of retirement again they made the highly publicized, but right, move to get him. Favre set a team record with 10 gms of 100+ QBR while personally passing for his most TD?s in a season S/?97, had the fewest int (7) and his best comp % (68.4) in his career. Peterson took some heat for a decline in rushing production (-377 yds from LY) as MIN went from 5th to 12th in rushing. This was partially due to the OL but a MIN also had 110 more pass att?s TY and he more than doubled his rec?s vs LY (21 to 43) which made his overall production +311 yds. Rice benefitted the most out of the addition of Favre with 68 more rec?s and 1,171 more yards than ?08 as he stayed healthy all yr. He tied an NFL Playoff record with 3 TD rec vs DAL. Harvin finished 2nd to NYG?s Nicks in receiving yds by a rookie and was named Off ROY with a 27.5 KR avg and 2 spec tms TD?s. Their OL isn?t as good as its reputation due to a 1st year Ctr and rookie RT but their 34 sks (15th) is more a factor of Favre taking a sk rather than risk a TO. MIN?s #6 D starts and ends with the DL. Allen finished 2nd in sks as the ?Williams Wall? absorbed most of the double tms and allowed him to beat OT?s 1 on 1 for most of the yr. MIN?s biggest inj of the yr was the loss of MLB Henderson (brkn leg) and while rookie Brinkley is good vs the run he is a weak link in coverage. CB Winfield has played most of the 2H of the yr with a foot inj and while they have a 26-11 ratio overall they only given up 209 ypg (65%) with a 9-6 ratio at home. MIN has our #10 special teams thanks to solid return units (#11 PR/KR) but their KR defense can be exploited (22.6).
While leading the #1 offense TY Brees finished 1st in comp % (70.6), QBR (109.6), TD passes (34) and tied Rodgers and Romo for 2nd with 39 pass plays of 25 or more yds. Brees also spreads the ball around (7 players with 35 or more rec?s TY) which diffuses the defense?s ability to lock onto a single player. Colston is the only player who?s had 1,000 yds rec with Brees at the helm but he?s done it 3 of the L4Y. Henderson is the possession WR but the offense really started clicking with a healthy Shockey who opened up the middle of the field. Meachem was GM Loomis? preseason breakout player & he didn?t disappoint as his 16.0 ypc was 9th in the NFL. The Saints best previous finish in rushing was 11th in 2003 and TY they came in 6th. The combo of Thomas, Bell and Bush worked despite injuries as Payton rolls with whichever RB he feels will exploit the opposing team. Combined the trio would be 2nd only to Chris Johnson in rushing TY. NO?s OL is a bit overrated with Brees being sacked 20 times (4th, 1 every 27.2 pass att?s) due to his lightning quick release. MIA and DAL were the only tms with deep and physical secondaries who were able to jam NO?s rec?s and throw off the timing enough for the edge rushers to get to Brees (9 sks). Gregg Williams led the Saints to the #9 D after the 1st 5 wks but inj?s caught up to them and they finished the year 25th all?g 384 ypg and 23 ppg over the final 11 wks. NO has played much of the season without its starting CB?s Greer and Porter with Jenkins having growing pains as a nickel CB. Sharper tied for the NFL lead with 9 int and MLB Vilma proved that he is a cornerstone player here. NO did lose DE Grant (triceps) vs CAR but will have DT Ellis here and with him in the lineup NO only all?d 103 ypg (4.2) rushing. NO has our #30 ST?s due to 4.6 PR avg (31st) and the KR coverage unit giving up 24.5 (29th).
Both teams dominated as each won by 31 points last week. The Vikings of course won as our Playoff GOY and despite some recent road woes we?ll ride them again. The QB?s are the two leaders in pass efficiency and while Favre seems to relish improvising, Brees has only been sacked more than twice in only 2 games. The Vikings DL was relentless against Dallas and have to expect them to be able to get to Brees. While most agree the Saints #1 offense is potent, the Vikings are not far behind with the #5 unit. On the defensive side of the ball Minnesota has the league?s #6 stop unit while the Saints are ranked #25 & have allowed 402 ypg the last 6. You need an experienced QB to win on the road and Minny has one.

Minnesota (+) over NEW ORLEANS

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

NY Jets at Indianapolis -7.5 O/U 40.5

Recommendation: Indianapolis -7.5

Methodical yet deadly, the Colts once again did exactly what they needed to do to win. The offensive numbers were far from gaudy but with Peyton Manning under center, there is no better team when faced with a must score that can deliver the goods with such consistency. Defensively, the bend-but-don?t-break style we discussed last week was in full effect as
Baltimore was held under 100 yards on the ground while Joe Flacco threw two interceptions. Somewhat concerning was Indy?s inability to run the football ? an issue certainly relevant against the Jets ? but they are one of a few teams that can win without balance. Against San Diego, the Jets walked away with a fourth quarter comeback win, keeping within striking distance with a strong run game and forced turnovers. After recording only 11 yards on its first four drives, New York kept plugging away and essentially waited for San Diego to implode (two missed field goals). As for this weekend?s matchup, it is no question worrisome that Indianapolis? style doesn?t always equate to wins by margin. But from a trend perspective, the Colts have covered every game they have won outright in the playoffs with Manning under center (8-0 SU/ATS). The number may seem a tad high but enough factors have us leaning towards the home chalk.

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Game - Minnesota at New Orleans -4 O/U 52.5

Recommendation: New Orleans -4

Home field was in full effect last week as both New Orleans and Minnesota dominated their respective games from start to finish. The Saints
showed no signs of rust after their supposed late season decline, marching up and down the field at will against Arizona. Even more impressive was a defense that for a majority of the season was ?situationally good? ? getting key stops when needed and forcing plenty of turnovers (third in the NFL with 26 INTs). That doesn?t mean we aren?t somewhat concerned as Minnesota has the ability to move the ball a number of ways. The Vikings didn?t have to do much last week as
Dallas essentially handed them the game. Not one Dallas drive tallied more than 30 yards after the first quarter. The key here is how well Minnesota?s secondary stacks up against the league?s most prolific passing outfit. Against Aaron Rogers (twice) and Kurt Warner, the Vikes were cut apart to the tune of 74-of-110, 67% for 311 ypg. While recent trends suggest home field doesn?t mean as much in the NFL, you can?t discredit either of these two squads? turf. New Orleans has been all but unstoppable in front of its home crowd and in this price range, we feel comfortable laying the points with what we feel is the better team.

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

NEW YORK JETS (11-7) at INDIANAPOLIS (15-2)

INDIANAPOLIS 24 - NY Jets 10

As we?ve mentioned countless times in postseasons past, results of regular-season meetings are no foolproof indicator of what will transpire in playoff rematches. And we think we can safely say that at least the dynamics of the Week 16 regular-season meeting between the then 14-0 Colts and Jets at Lucas Oil Stadium won?t be replicated in the AFC title game. Although it is worth noting that Indy was ardly cruising to an easy win in the 3rd Q when HC Jim Caldwell decided to pull several of his starters, including QB Peyton Manning, with a mere 15-10 lead. You know the rest, with Rex Ryan?s defense ruthlessly exposing Manning raw rookie reliever Curtis Painter, forcing key takeways that New York was able to convert into scores (including a fumble return TD by DE Marques Douglas) in an eventual 29-15 win that revived the Jets? flagging playoff hopes and simultaneously put to the
sword the Colts? hopes of an unbeaten regular season.
Now, Indy?s starters have a chance to finish the job they started four weeks ago, but it won?t be easy. Even though the Colt defense did a good job keeping the limited Raven attack in check last week, the Colts? undersized front seven was still susceptible to smashmouth tactics TY when allowing 126 ypg and 4.3 ypc to rank a mere 24th in rush defense, a telling stat considering how some of Indy?s foes mostly abandoned the run when in catchup mode during the regular
season. And the Jets gashed the Colts for 202 YR in that late December meeting behind vet Thomas Jones (105 YR) and emerging Iowa rookie Shonn
Greene (95 YR). But if Indy can indeed succeed in somewhat slowing the Jets? infantry (which continued its pounding ways last week at San Diego when gaining 169 YR), New York?s alternatives with rookie QB Mark Sanchez are limited. As the season progressed, the Jets were not able to expand their playbook (other than integrating some wildcat formations with WR/QB Brad Smith) with Sanchez, who, after self-destructing numerous times en route to tossing 20 picks, has been able to work off of the ground game and has thrown only 18 passes pg in the Jets? 4-game win streak. Although the N.Y. has
spotted both of TY?s playoff foes 7-0 leads, it is not an offense built to flourish in catch-up mode.
Meanwhile, it?s worth noting that Manning has had plenty of experience (and success) dealing with Ryan?s previous Baltimore stop units, and he was en route to another stellar game vs. Ryan?s Jets in the Dec. 27 meeting, having completed 14 of 21passes for 192 yards before being pulled. The combo of excellent protection (Indy allowed an NFL-low 14 sacks) and Manning?s trademark quick release have historically diffused Ryan?s pressure tactics. And despite the Colts? own spotty ground attack that barely registered last week vs. the Ravens, it?s worth noting that Manning was still able to control the pace and flow of the game with his pinpoint passing against another rough stop unit similar in design to the Jets.
Finally, don?t forget the extended results history in the conference championship round, in which almost half (38 of 78) of the games since the
merger have been decided by 14 points or more. Given the Jets? limitations, similar to the Ravens and their then-rookie QB Joe Flacco vs. the Steelers in LY?s AFC title game, the more-competent Colt offense is apt to extend the
margin and gain revenge for that misleading Dec. 27 loss.

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

MINNESOTA (13-4) at NEW ORLEANS (14-3)

Minnesota 26 - NEW ORLEANS 24

First-ever NFC title game in New Orleans. And, with multiple strong edges appearing on both sides, the value appears to be in taking the points.
Both QBs have had superior seasons and have been great leaders for their teams. Both teams have outstanding arrays of receivers. Both teams have speedy, potential game-breakers (Reggie Bush for the Saints; Percy Harvin for the Vikings). Both teams are now healthier in the secondary after dealing with midseason injuries. Both teams have defenses led by well-respected coordinators?Gregg Williams of the Saints and Leslie Frazier (has interviewed seven times for head coaching jobs) of the Vikes. And neither team has a solid
core of players who have been to the promised land of the Super Bowl. One big plus for the Minnesota is that it knocked off arguably the hottest team in the NFC?big and physical Dallas?which had ended the Saints? 13-game, season-opening winning streak and which then won its next three games by a combined 75-14 count. It turns out that HC Brad Childress made the right move nin giving his players nearly a week off after the regular season. The Vikes last week were alert and quick on their feet vs. the Cowboys. Likewise, New Orleans made the right move in holding out its banged-up players in lateseason games to get them ready for postseason. There are few knocks here on Sean Payton?s cleverly-coached Saints,
seeking New Orleans? first Super bowl appearance. But the strengths of the underdog Vikes should not be overlooked. Brett Favre (now 37 TDs vs. only 7 ints. TY) has supplied Minnesota with the postseason confidence and bravado it has lacked. Favre has helped elevate 6-4 WR Sidney Rice (83 recs., 8 TDs in reg. season) into a Pro Bowl talent. TE Visanthe Shiancoe (11 TDC) has developed into a premier red-zone target. Harvin is a contributor as a receiver, runner and returner (8 total TDs). Ryan Longwell is the most reliable kicker on the field. RB Adrian Peterson (1383 YR, 18 TDR) has the potential to dominate any game, and mate Chester Taylor is among the top third-down backs in the league. On defense, Minny?s outstanding pass rusher, DE Jared Allen (14?
sacks) is opposite N.O.?s weak link on the OL, LT Jermon Bushrod.
For sure, the Saints? have myriad strengths of their own?Brees? quick reads, Bush?s multiple abilities, WR Colston, ball-hawking (former Minny) S Sharper,
and possibly TE Shockey (check his knee injury). But not enough to keep us believing that Favre?with all his weapons and experience, in dome conditions (the same dome, by the way, where Favre won his Super Bowl title with G.B.)? doesn?t have an excellent chance to steal a victory.

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

New York Jets @ Indainaplois Colts

After a close Playoff victory, teams have been battle-tested and very competitive in their next Playoff game.

- Play ON a Playoff underdog of 3+ points off a (non-home underdog)
Playoff SU win of less than 7 points allowing less than 28 points in its last game and not seeking revenge for same-season SU losses in the last 2 matchups.

SU: 9-8 (3.2) ATS: 17-0 (11.4)

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

Indianapolis Colts

- Play ON a Playoff favorite of more than 7 points seeking revenge for a SU loss of 3+ points in the last matchup within the last 3 seasons.

SU: 10-0 (20.1) ATS: 10-0 (10.2)

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

Minnesota Vikings

Playoff road teams well-rested off 2 home wins under the conditions described have been very strong and pulled off many upsets.

- Play on a Playoff home favorite SU win in its
last game and a Sunday non-division home favorite SU win before that.

SU: 8-4 (6.3) ATS: 12-0 (10.9)

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

Conference Championship teams have had an edge when not coming in off a win as a big underdog or big favorite and taking on an opponent off a victory as a TD favorite.

- Play ON a Conference Championship team off a Semi-Final SU win (not as a favorite of 7+ points or underdog of 10+ points) scoring less than 4 points and allowing less than 24 points in its last game vs. an opponent off a Semi-Final SU win as a favorite of 7+ points in its last game.

SU: 9-2 (10.6) ATS: 11-0 (16.4)

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

Except for home favorites, Conference Championship teams have been disasters after a big offensive showing in a playoff win.

- Play AGAINST a Conference Championship team (not a home favorite) with a TOTAL of 38+ points off a Semi-Final SU win scoring 34+ points in its last game.

SU: 11-0 (16.4) ATS: 11-0 (11.5)

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

The team with the better defensive effort in its previous playoff win has had the upper hand in Conference Championship games under the conditions outlined.

- Play ON a Conference Championship non-division team off a Semi- Final SU win allowing less than 15 points in its last game vs. an opponent off a Semi-Final SU win allowing 14+ points (not as a 6+ point underdog) in its last game.

SU: 12-3 (11.8) ATS: 15-0 (10.1)

Senor Capper · Jan 22, 2010

New Orleans Saints

Teams that have put up the most points in the Semi-Final round have caught the fancy of the wagering public in recent seasons, which has meant motivated opponents enjoying line value and spread wins.

- Play AGAINST a Conference Championship team off a Semi-Final SU win scoring more points than the other 3 Semi-Final SU winners last week vs. an opponent not seeking same-season revenge for SU losses in the last 2 matchups.

SU: 7-1 (15.3) ATS: 8-0 (15.9)

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