YANKEES/ROYALS Under 9 -105 ? Roger Clemens may not be what he used to be, but he is still 9-3 with a 3.94 ERA on the season. Granted, he is just 2-3 on the road, but interestingly, he is 2-0 in road night games and 0-3 in the day! He has allowed 3 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts, including a fine effort vs. these Royals last Wednesday, when he allowed just 2 runs on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts in 7 innings. In fact, Clemens has dominated Kansas City over the years, as his teams have won his last 7 starts against them. Suppan took the loss in that Wednesday game vs. Clemens, and the Yankees have hit him well the last 2 times he has faced them. However, both of those starts were at Yankee Stadium, and Suppan has been a much better pitcher at home this season. He is 7-2 in this stadium with a good WHIP of 1.29, and his home ERA of 4.28 is nearly a run lower than his overall ERA of 5.11. He had 2 consecutive Quality Starts prior to that start against the Yanks last week, and he will be determined to get some revenge tonight. Surprisingly, the Yankees are only hitting .229 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, so I feel that Suppan will indeed have a much-improved effort. Suppan?s last 3 starts have all gone Under, as have Clemens? last 2 outings.
Yankees/Royals - 8/13/02
- Thread starter Eugene Michaels
- Start date
First let me preface this with you are very solid capper and I respect your picks but in Suppans last 4 starts at home there have been an average of 14 runs scored per game. His last 3 starts he has thrown 118, 124 and 119 pitches respectively. In his last start in KC against the Yankees he lasted just 5.1 innings giving up 5 runs. I really hate to be on the other side of one of your plays but with the Yankees losing two of three to the A's and Boston sliding I relally think they have to turn it up a notch and I look for them to score some serious runs today.
I have the under, and it is the type of game that has gone under about 57% of the time over the past 10 years or so...and now that you can get good ++$ on the under, it is a very strong play. Suppan until this year rarely gave up more than 4 runs a game, which made him great for unders--this year a little off, but not so much at home overall. Recent form of 2-3/3-5 games can be an misused stat--instead, look at Suppan's overall home performance. While 3 of last 4 home games has seen earned runs of 5 or more, that only happened one other time in his last TWENTY. I'd argue that Suppan's last five or so starts are the abberation from the long term trend, in which you can usually count on a max of giving up 3-4 runs in 6-7 inngs.....and even if he is off, clemens is the other side....
MTK
MTK
mack the knife said:
ok now i'm confused, please explain this statement to me...
i have no opinion on this one as i dont play totals w/o knowing umps but i just didnt understand what "this type of game" means...thanks
Okay I went back to all 9 of his home starts the over is 7-2 with an average of 12.09 runs per game with the Royals opposition averaging 6.33 runs a game. The over is 5-3 in Clemens starts on the road. Are you even considering that the KC bullpen will get involved with their 5.75 home ERA, I don't see Suppan going 9 innings but I wish you no bad luck but I really love this over.
Wigs: The way I cap games is to look for historical patterns of team behavior coupled with the particular pitchers of the day. If the teams have been scoring and/or allowing high/low ave/median runs a game based on a rolling number of games (2, 5, 10, etc) in their respective roles (home/away), and the pitchers doing the same (or sometimes the opposite), I look to see if the teams go over or under more than at least 53% of the time over the past number of years. The teams today (nyy/kc) fit a pattern of games that, based on how they played beforehand, tend to go under the total.
RBI: I could answer your objection 2 ways. First, I could point out that part of the reason for the overs of late is that the royals have scored 8, 3, 13, 8 and 8 runs in suppans' last 5 home starts, and then I'd ask if you think they will do that against clemens. Or, I could point out that in the 5 home starts before that, the royals allowed only 3, 1, 3, 3 and 2 runs in suppans' home starts. Do you think the more recent 5 games are more predictive of the future than the earlier ones? Do you know of data that confirms the optimal number of recent games to consider when trying to predict the future games? Is it 2, 5, or 10? My experience tells me that recent performance is not necessarily more meaningful than overall performance, especially when recent performance sharply deviates with long-term performance. It depends. And in this particular case, The team performance points to an under and the pitcher performance does not change that.
Another way to think about this is that I'm trying to win about 55% of these positions--which would mean I could make the most appealing write up about why I like a game evey time I take a position and still be wrong just a little less than half of the time (and still make money). So I'm not gonna kid you that I strongly believe this game goes under. What I can tell you is that I expect this type of game to go under the toal about 57% of the time over the course of a season.
My posting record here so far indicates that I'm not blowing smoke, although I'm doing better in terms of ROI lately than I am over the season as a whole.
mtk
RBI: I could answer your objection 2 ways. First, I could point out that part of the reason for the overs of late is that the royals have scored 8, 3, 13, 8 and 8 runs in suppans' last 5 home starts, and then I'd ask if you think they will do that against clemens. Or, I could point out that in the 5 home starts before that, the royals allowed only 3, 1, 3, 3 and 2 runs in suppans' home starts. Do you think the more recent 5 games are more predictive of the future than the earlier ones? Do you know of data that confirms the optimal number of recent games to consider when trying to predict the future games? Is it 2, 5, or 10? My experience tells me that recent performance is not necessarily more meaningful than overall performance, especially when recent performance sharply deviates with long-term performance. It depends. And in this particular case, The team performance points to an under and the pitcher performance does not change that.
Another way to think about this is that I'm trying to win about 55% of these positions--which would mean I could make the most appealing write up about why I like a game evey time I take a position and still be wrong just a little less than half of the time (and still make money). So I'm not gonna kid you that I strongly believe this game goes under. What I can tell you is that I expect this type of game to go under the toal about 57% of the time over the course of a season.
My posting record here so far indicates that I'm not blowing smoke, although I'm doing better in terms of ROI lately than I am over the season as a whole.
mtk
Well we all have our methods and we can't all agree if we did their would be no gambling. I look for Suppan who has thrown allot of pitches in his last 3 starts to get touched up for about 4-5 runs and Clemens to give up 2-3 then the bullpens to give up a few. I think bullpens are very underestimated especially in totals and KC's is more than capable of giving up a few to a Yankees team that lost 2 of their last 3 against a much better team than the Royals.
Personally, I would have to lean towards the Over. The only thing keeping me off that is Roger Clemens. I expect Clemens to pitch another good game...but you still have to expect him to maybe allow a couple at min.
However, how CAN'T you expect the Yankees to put up some runs today? I guess the one thing that stands out is Suppan's tendency to give up the Home Run ball at an alarming rate this year. He's given up 26 already and now he gets to face a Yankee team that leads the league in this category....could always mean a possibility of "quick" runs. Think Suppan's getting a little tired as well having thrown over 110 pitches in 7 of his last 8 including his last 5 where he has also allowed more hits than innings pitched in each of his last 5 starts.
Good luck which ever way you decide....I'm on the Yanks myself..staying away from this total.
However, how CAN'T you expect the Yankees to put up some runs today? I guess the one thing that stands out is Suppan's tendency to give up the Home Run ball at an alarming rate this year. He's given up 26 already and now he gets to face a Yankee team that leads the league in this category....could always mean a possibility of "quick" runs. Think Suppan's getting a little tired as well having thrown over 110 pitches in 7 of his last 8 including his last 5 where he has also allowed more hits than innings pitched in each of his last 5 starts.
Good luck which ever way you decide....I'm on the Yanks myself..staying away from this total.
GADZOOKS!
GADZOOKS!
RobertBIrish, ndnfan, etc...,
You guys were obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I guess I overestimated Suppan's ability and put too much weight on the fact that his numbers were so much better at home. Oh well, Wednesday is another day.
Congrats to all you winners!
GADZOOKS!
RobertBIrish, ndnfan, etc...,
You guys were obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I guess I overestimated Suppan's ability and put too much weight on the fact that his numbers were so much better at home. Oh well, Wednesday is another day.
Congrats to all you winners!
Eugene Michaels, dude, we all have our times when we're wrong on here.....
i thought the game was gonna be a close one AND low scoring...and i had KC +1.5, they kept it close(by THEIR standards) but to no avail....
keep your chin up and get 'em next time...!!!
good luck to all!
i thought the game was gonna be a close one AND low scoring...and i had KC +1.5, they kept it close(by THEIR standards) but to no avail....
keep your chin up and get 'em next time...!!!
good luck to all!
