Year Long Picks
- Thread starter TLankford
- Start date
Don't ever mind being on the opposite side of the majority Joe. Like that the line is climbing throughout the day. up to 60.5 at my site
GL
GL
Well... initial lean on last night's game was Clemson, and between posting that lean and making the play somehow I decided to give WF credit for having competent coaching staff and offense. Hindsight, should have just taken Clemsons Team Total over 35 since I was almost dead on with my prediction of how many they would score. Bad judgement there, oh well.
Team Total for Texas A&M came out and it's a pretty good number, gonna go ahead and make it a play:
Texas A&M TT Over 34
Did a pretty long-winded write-up in ibo888's thread about this game, here: http://madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=496717
I think ATM is good for 40+ in this game. I can't recall ever seeing Sumlin take his foot off the gas, a la Dabo Sweeny, so hopefully if Auburn can't keep the game competitive, ATM doesn't sit on the ball. Wildcard in this game is AU's offense, so I'm taking them out of the equation. I guess they could still factor in to the bet with a turnover or two leading to easy points for ATM. Actually expect this out of our offense these days.
Team Total for Texas A&M came out and it's a pretty good number, gonna go ahead and make it a play:
Texas A&M TT Over 34
Did a pretty long-winded write-up in ibo888's thread about this game, here: http://madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=496717
I think ATM is good for 40+ in this game. I can't recall ever seeing Sumlin take his foot off the gas, a la Dabo Sweeny, so hopefully if Auburn can't keep the game competitive, ATM doesn't sit on the ball. Wildcard in this game is AU's offense, so I'm taking them out of the equation. I guess they could still factor in to the bet with a turnover or two leading to easy points for ATM. Actually expect this out of our offense these days.
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Locked up another game for tomorrow:
Ole Miss +6.5 Outright Winnah
Rebels are easily the most improved team from 2011 and thanks to Auburn, Arkansas is only the 2nd most regressed team from last year, speaking just of the SEC. The only favorable matchup for the fighting John L. Smiths is Wilson vs. OM secondary. And it will probably lead to a decent number of yards. They just don't have the running game to compliment it and that is main reason they struggle in the redzone. The only game I can recall where OM secondary actually got torched by an opposing QB is against Texas. Part of that has to be credited to UT's running game dominating and forcing OM to crowd the box and put their DBs on an island. That won't be the case tomorrow as Arkansas really hasn't run the ball on anybody besides Auburn and UK, who are the two worst teams in the SEC.
I think OM's front 7 should have success getting to Wilson, just like everyone else they've played. Arkansas's OL is no picnic and not having a running game to keep the defense honest allows teams to tee off. I think they'll only have to hold Arky under 30 to come away with a SU win tomorrow. Arkansas's defense is pretty terrible. They don't matchup well against spread Os or teams that can pass in general, i.e.- ULM 400+ py / ATM 500 py. Even Rutgers racked up yards through the air, which is not their strength (400py). Worst performance in my orange and blue glasses, is that they let Keihl Frazier go 9 for 14 for 120 in 1 half, which is probably the best 30 minutes of footballs stats he's ever put up. Then Moseley comes in for 30 minutes and goes 13 for 21 / 165 yards which is more yards than he's gotten in either of his past two full games. I think OM can probably put up close to 40 in this game. Which should be enough for the win, and more than enough to cover
Ole Miss +6.5 Outright Winnah
Rebels are easily the most improved team from 2011 and thanks to Auburn, Arkansas is only the 2nd most regressed team from last year, speaking just of the SEC. The only favorable matchup for the fighting John L. Smiths is Wilson vs. OM secondary. And it will probably lead to a decent number of yards. They just don't have the running game to compliment it and that is main reason they struggle in the redzone. The only game I can recall where OM secondary actually got torched by an opposing QB is against Texas. Part of that has to be credited to UT's running game dominating and forcing OM to crowd the box and put their DBs on an island. That won't be the case tomorrow as Arkansas really hasn't run the ball on anybody besides Auburn and UK, who are the two worst teams in the SEC.
I think OM's front 7 should have success getting to Wilson, just like everyone else they've played. Arkansas's OL is no picnic and not having a running game to keep the defense honest allows teams to tee off. I think they'll only have to hold Arky under 30 to come away with a SU win tomorrow. Arkansas's defense is pretty terrible. They don't matchup well against spread Os or teams that can pass in general, i.e.- ULM 400+ py / ATM 500 py. Even Rutgers racked up yards through the air, which is not their strength (400py). Worst performance in my orange and blue glasses, is that they let Keihl Frazier go 9 for 14 for 120 in 1 half, which is probably the best 30 minutes of footballs stats he's ever put up. Then Moseley comes in for 30 minutes and goes 13 for 21 / 165 yards which is more yards than he's gotten in either of his past two full games. I think OM can probably put up close to 40 in this game. Which should be enough for the win, and more than enough to cover
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A write up from another to support your play!
This should come as a surprise to no one, but I am just puzzled. Ole Miss is not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. They have beat every team they are supposed to beat and have won the game against a strong A&M team. On top of that, their offense has put up the most points on Bama than anyone and their defense has stepped up. Chizik threw the kitchen sink at Ole Miss and couldn?t walk away with the W. I don?t know if the rest of the public or the books are still living off last years team, but it is a world of difference.
There is exactly one reason why I can see Arky being favored here: Tyler Wilson vs. Ole Miss Secondary. TW is a very good QB on a not so very good team. Everyone assumes because Ole Miss secondary got torched early in the year (when starters were out) that they are not up to snuff. Tyler Wilson will struggle here, and here is why.
Even in the past two games Arky has played against the SEC doormats, they really haven?t gotten much going on the ground. This allows Ole Miss to be more aggressive on the defensive front. They can play over the top and shadow Cobi, the one huge threat. On top of that, Ole Miss is 33rd in INT, 8th in TFL, 21st in sacks, and 21st in turnovers caused.
I do think TW gets it going a bit, but Arky is terrible in the RedZone, terrible on 3rd down, only completing 55% of passes and can?t run. If Ole Miss can score, which I believe they will, I think they walk away with a win here at Arky. Arky?s D is not good. Look at the last team that Arky played that runs a similar offense to Ole Miss?it was A&M and Arky got smacked.
One thing sinks Ole Miss here, and thats Bo turning it over. Did I mention according to my ranking system, Hugh Freeze is twice as good of a coach as JL? Freeze has let one win get away, I don?t see him letting 2. My numbers have Ole Miss by about 10 here, and I adjust that down to around 7 for playing on the road (game technically isn?t at Arky, on a neutral field). I keep saying this, but maybe after this one, Ole Miss gets some love
GL!! thanks for posting
I like those rankings for Ole Miss INT/TFL/Sacks/Turnovers. And he's definitely got a point Freeze >>>>> John lol Smith.
Finally got 1H lines out for tomorrow.
Oregon line 1 point better than I thought it would be at 30. Hopefully Chip kelley pays attention to the BCS standings and doesn't assume people ahead of him are gonna lose. Style points are required for that shit schedule. Oregon is a machine when starters are in. No reason for them to come out before halftime. Gonna take my chances with that being the case tomorrow
Oregon 1H -30
Oregon line 1 point better than I thought it would be at 30. Hopefully Chip kelley pays attention to the BCS standings and doesn't assume people ahead of him are gonna lose. Style points are required for that shit schedule. Oregon is a machine when starters are in. No reason for them to come out before halftime. Gonna take my chances with that being the case tomorrow
Oregon 1H -30
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2-0 day so far. 2-1 this week
Have these two posted from earlier in the week:
ATM TT O34
LTech O77
Looking at the card may add one or two more
Have these two posted from earlier in the week:
ATM TT O34
LTech O77
Looking at the card may add one or two more
opcorn2
Buying back the LaTech/NMST Over 77 with Under 78 and eating the juice there.
Changing it to:
LaTech -29.5
Just a lot more confident in LT putting up a ton of points and don't want to have to rely on NMST to put up any of their own. I think they should... but I don't want to get burned like I did in the Clemson-Wake Over game on Thursday
Changing it to:
LaTech -29.5
Just a lot more confident in LT putting up a ton of points and don't want to have to rely on NMST to put up any of their own. I think they should... but I don't want to get burned like I did in the Clemson-Wake Over game on Thursday
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unfortunately for the Tigers, that TAM TT hit midway in the 2Q. Embarrassing. But at least I got paid for watching that. Turned it off after they hit 35.
3-0 today with the 3 game tease and LT remaining. LT moving the ball and stalling out in the RZ. Not looking too good but you never know. Their FG kicker is GD horrible.
Vandy up 41-0 and Mich keeping it close so far. need the Sooners to win that game. Although I'm not sure WTF that penalty was on the rushing TD. Fix?
3-0 today with the 3 game tease and LT remaining. LT moving the ball and stalling out in the RZ. Not looking too good but you never know. Their FG kicker is GD horrible.
Vandy up 41-0 and Mich keeping it close so far. need the Sooners to win that game. Although I'm not sure WTF that penalty was on the rushing TD. Fix?
3-2 on the week
19-10 on the year
disappointing game with LT getting stuffed on the goalline twice and their kicker hopefully studies really hard because his future is not bright. left about 24 points on the field. oh well
New lines out and Vegas continues to leave me scratching my head. How in the hell do they think Auburn can beat ANYONE by 3TDs?
Initial leans:
Louisville -14
Indiana -1
Bama -10
But mostly just NMST +22
19-10 on the year
disappointing game with LT getting stuffed on the goalline twice and their kicker hopefully studies really hard because his future is not bright. left about 24 points on the field. oh well
New lines out and Vegas continues to leave me scratching my head. How in the hell do they think Auburn can beat ANYONE by 3TDs?
Initial leans:
Louisville -14
Indiana -1
Bama -10
But mostly just NMST +22
Jonathan Wallace named starter for Saturday vs. NMST. Actually think AU may score some points with him at QB. only guy we have that's not scared shitless
Could be looking at actually taking AU in this one
Could be looking at actually taking AU in this one
First play of the week locked in. Liked it before I heard that Keenan Allen is out for 2-3 weeks.
Washington +4.5 over Cal
Line was a little fishy when it opened. Cal coming off a couple of losses. Washington off a big home win and not the greatest road team. Still see this game playing out a lot like the Stanford/Cal game. Stanford and Washington have very similar philosophies. Run the ball to setup the pass and play good defense. Cal doesn't matchup well vs. a team that plays this way with any success. I think Washington's run game will be able to sustain drives if they can somewhat limit the penalties (at least 8 holding calls last week). Their defense is pretty good vs. the run. And pass defense is really only susceptible to big plays or efficient pass games, which Cal does not have with Maynard at QB, especially not with Allen out. Looking at a low scoring outright Win for Washington in my opinion: 20 - 13 Huskies
will have more by tomorrow. not a lot of time for capping this week yet.
Washington +4.5 over Cal
Line was a little fishy when it opened. Cal coming off a couple of losses. Washington off a big home win and not the greatest road team. Still see this game playing out a lot like the Stanford/Cal game. Stanford and Washington have very similar philosophies. Run the ball to setup the pass and play good defense. Cal doesn't matchup well vs. a team that plays this way with any success. I think Washington's run game will be able to sustain drives if they can somewhat limit the penalties (at least 8 holding calls last week). Their defense is pretty good vs. the run. And pass defense is really only susceptible to big plays or efficient pass games, which Cal does not have with Maynard at QB, especially not with Allen out. Looking at a low scoring outright Win for Washington in my opinion: 20 - 13 Huskies
will have more by tomorrow. not a lot of time for capping this week yet.
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Locked in three more on the card today. Still debating on Indiana and Miss State. Staying away from Bama sides.
Bama/LSU Under 41.5 -124
Bought a whole point here just to have 41 on my side. This is really just betting on Bama's D vs. LSU's O. I understand Bama is going to score because good offenses have been able to move the ball against LSU this year. I don't think they'll be able to beat the number by themselves or go over 30. I don't see LSU getting into DDs. Last two meetings they've put up 9 total. I am not buying everyone saying "LSU will score because Les knows he has to open up the playbook" blah blah blah. Same people didn't watch the NCG last year. And don't watch LSU games in general. Les has a style of football and playcalling and he sticks to it week in and week out. Pound the ball. Setup play action. Play defense. I'm just hoping Metten doesn't turn it over too much and set up easy scores. Minimize the "honey badger plays" we see tomorrow.
Florida -16.5 b .5
Every upper-tier SEC team that's played Mizzou has beaten them by 3+ TDs. UGA and Bama did it at Mizzou. They are flying all the way down to the swamp to accept all the anger UF has to dish as a result of their 6 TO game last week. Gillislee should have a solid day on the ground and Driskel will be facing the easiest defense he's seen since September. UF D is rock solid.
7Pt Tease: Arkansas -2 / Oregon -3 Push = Win via 5D
Just think both these teams win their games tomorrow. Arkansas probably won't be up for the game, but they should be able to out-talent their way to a W here. Tulsa 7-0 and almost a DD dog at a 2-5 Arkansas. Speaks volumes about SOS. Oregon is just better than USC. I think USC will be the first team to really put up some points on that offense, but USC's defense is soft as a terry cloth.
Bama/LSU Under 41.5 -124
Bought a whole point here just to have 41 on my side. This is really just betting on Bama's D vs. LSU's O. I understand Bama is going to score because good offenses have been able to move the ball against LSU this year. I don't think they'll be able to beat the number by themselves or go over 30. I don't see LSU getting into DDs. Last two meetings they've put up 9 total. I am not buying everyone saying "LSU will score because Les knows he has to open up the playbook" blah blah blah. Same people didn't watch the NCG last year. And don't watch LSU games in general. Les has a style of football and playcalling and he sticks to it week in and week out. Pound the ball. Setup play action. Play defense. I'm just hoping Metten doesn't turn it over too much and set up easy scores. Minimize the "honey badger plays" we see tomorrow.
Florida -16.5 b .5
Every upper-tier SEC team that's played Mizzou has beaten them by 3+ TDs. UGA and Bama did it at Mizzou. They are flying all the way down to the swamp to accept all the anger UF has to dish as a result of their 6 TO game last week. Gillislee should have a solid day on the ground and Driskel will be facing the easiest defense he's seen since September. UF D is rock solid.
7Pt Tease: Arkansas -2 / Oregon -3 Push = Win via 5D
Just think both these teams win their games tomorrow. Arkansas probably won't be up for the game, but they should be able to out-talent their way to a W here. Tulsa 7-0 and almost a DD dog at a 2-5 Arkansas. Speaks volumes about SOS. Oregon is just better than USC. I think USC will be the first team to really put up some points on that offense, but USC's defense is soft as a terry cloth.
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Nice call on Wash last nite.... U was about only one I saw on them but if your gonna predict a score at least get it right!!!! U missed it by 1 point!!!! Come on what's the problem?? Hahaha 20-10 is pretty good and selective card every week!!! Very solid stuff!!!
I'm gonna steal your teaser and add a team to it and see what u think?
3 tm 10 pt
Ark +1
Oregon +1
Bama +1
I know u said u staying away from the side in Bama but I can't see them losing to LSU and that offense... QB hasn't played good and Bama defense best in the country.... I know LSU has best home field advantage in the country but this Bama team is like a robot just like their coach... Nothing rattles them.... I've got Bama winning 20-7
3 tm 10 pt
Ark +1
Oregon +1
Bama +1
I know u said u staying away from the side in Bama but I can't see them losing to LSU and that offense... QB hasn't played good and Bama defense best in the country.... I know LSU has best home field advantage in the country but this Bama team is like a robot just like their coach... Nothing rattles them.... I've got Bama winning 20-7
I think Bama wins the game. I just don't know by how much. That all depends on what kinda noise death valley can make.
still have yet to hear a valid reason why LSU keeps it close other than their field. 100 yards of grass does not put on a jersey and play football. At some point the Xs and Os come into play and decide the game
