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gsp

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Folks, this all started because I predicted that the first or last game last night would go over. Someone asked me if that meant that if the first game went over the last game would go under. My reply was, usually. Now Bos went over and GS (SF) went under. That don't mean that I have a crystal ball or something. For the past four and a half years I have charted every game in the NBA by their starting times and if the games start at the same time, the way all pro sports used to do it, alphabetically by the city the team plays in (or state now days). I have noticed that in the past two years there has been an effort to list the games out of sequence but I still list them the old way.

On Tues, all three games went under which meant that the first and last game were alike. Based on last year's chart the chance that they would be alike two nights in a row was less than 10% much less that both would go under again. My prediction that one of those games would go over was as close to a lock as you will ever see in sports and it was based on several years of research. (I did play GS under and would have posted it as a late play if I hadn't been so p----off).

I did go 0-2 on my posted plays which might have been the only thing I said in my orginal post that went wrong. No big deal, I'll have that back pretty quick.

I have never posted anything at Jack's that I couldn't back up 100% and don't intend to. The hide-bound mentality exhibited by a coupled of people shows you why there will always be more losers than winners. It appears that if they can't do it, it can't be done.

There are quite a few other things I have picked up on over the years but as KC pointed out the other day, if I post it on the net it will change. Good luck to all of you.
 

fatback

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GSP, this is going to be a stupid question but do you feel that tonight is a good example so if Orlando/NO goes under or over then Cleveland/ Pheonix will do the opposite? I told you it was going to be a stupid question. Thanks for all your hard work.


Buzzards gotta eat, same as the worms
 

HONUS

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I don't doubt your success with this; I've watched all last year and am intrigued. A couple of questions:

1. why do you think this trend occurs? Is there an underlying rationale that would explain why this happens?
2. you've clearly done research on this. What was the origin of the hypothesis? That is, what would lead you to think of this concept?

thanks,
H
 

kevinmac_99

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yo Fatback the first game of the day has already been concluded and it went OVER so.........PHX/CLE take the UNDA!!!!

KMAC

GSP-Is the game that was played EARLY this morning our time included in the equation? Thx for your input.
 
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gsp

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Thanks for your interest. A couple of questions I can't afford to answer.

The game in Japan is listed as the first game of the day and I will list it that way with an asterick. Keep in mind that it is too early in the season for any patterns to be established. I don't call them trends but maybe I should.

I few years ago a bookie friend of mine asked if I had noticed that the first and second game of the day were going opposite. He was talking about covering the spread on fav/dog. The season was about three qt over but I went back and sure enough he was right. If the fav covered the first game, the dog covered the second. There were only a handful of times that they were both alike. Since they were usually played at the same time, I couldn't figure a way to take advantage of it but it made me start charting every game and looking for patterns. Since they have started screwing with the way they list games, I'm sure other people have picked up on this and it will be harder to pick up on patterns this year.
 

Gatorbait

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just keep posten' the stuff that not many people pay attention to and laugh all the way to the bank. i think gsp is the last guy that should get called out in the manner he did. Sum reason a few think they be better than othas' :)
 

nighthorse

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I didn't mean to disrespect, but I just can't see any logical reason for why that would happen or why it would continue to happen. Maybe there is and I can't see it. Maybe it's just an incredible years long coincedence. I don't know. The only thing I can come up with is that things tend to eventually revert back to 50-50, so if first game goes over the last would have a slightly better chance at under, but it would be nowhere near statistical significance. Maybe the squares see an under in the first game and think everythings going under, thereby dragging the line down. I don't doubt that if you say it happens, it happens. Random thoughts. I'll be keeping an interested eye on it. Sorry if I offended. Good luck to all.
 

gsp

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Not at all nighthorse. I just hope I haven't screwed it up by calling attention to it. Has been a solid money maker for me.
 
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