You guys that play nothing but dogs.....how?

Penguinfan

Penguinfan

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Nothing is easy when handicapping games, but I'm really having a hard time figuring out how you guys that play nothing but dogs do it.

I've really been trying to look at games from the angle of trying to find a reason to play the dog and if I can't find any reason to then I take a look at the chalk. Two early games today are a good example. I just can't justify taking CWS or MIL.

Sure, either could win their game and, like I said, nothing is easy, but I can't find a good reason to play either one of them, but can find several good reasons to play the favs. I guess that is what the line makers want and I know they make a ton off people playing the chalk all the time, but man, I wish I knew how you guys find those dogs.
 
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docwth

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Penguinfan said:
Nothing is easy when handicapping games, but I'm really having a hard time figuring out how you guys that play nothing but dogs do it.

I've really been trying to look at games from the angle of trying to find a reason to play the dog and if I can't find any reason to then I take a look at the chalk. Two early games today are a good example. I just can't justify taking CWS or MIL.

Sure, either could win their game and, like I said, nothing is easy, but I can't find a good reason to play either one of them, but can find several good reasons to play the favs. I guess that is what the line makers want and I know they make a ton off people playing the chalk all the time, but man, I wish I knew how you guys find those dogs.
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ASK JACK, HE PLAYS THEM ALL THE TIME.:shrug::shrug:
 
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pel7

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When I do take a dog I usually do so because of reverse line movement with vast majority on fav.
Even then I take the +1.5
 
STEEL CITY SELECTIONS

STEEL CITY SELECTIONS

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Penguinfan said:
Nothing is easy when handicapping games, but I'm really having a hard time figuring out how you guys that play nothing but dogs do it.

I've really been trying to look at games from the angle of trying to find a reason to play the dog and if I can't find any reason to then I take a look at the chalk. Two early games today are a good example. I just can't justify taking CWS or MIL.

Sure, either could win their game and, like I said, nothing is easy, but I can't find a good reason to play either one of them, but can find several good reasons to play the favs. I guess that is what the line makers want and I know they make a ton off people playing the chalk all the time, but man, I wish I knew how you guys find those dogs.
Click to expand...

When i used to play dogs.....i feel that base ball more than any other sport momentum is the key.

good or bad.

so, i would only play dogs off a win,

i want my dog to have scored atleast 5 or more runs in previous game.


or won with less hits that other team, in other words got maximum value out of their hits....

example....road team won 4-3 but had 5 hits and won, losing home team had 10 hits and lost.

or also a dog off a big comeback win in the last 3 innings........

i want my dog to be a winning team.....bad teams find ways to lose....stay away.


also look to play against favs. that are struggling to score......scored 3 or less in previous game, but had alot of hits/walks atleast 10+......in other words.....struggling, lacking clutch hitting......



of course these situations are always same series, no day off....


but, i play 95% favs, because i do better that way.

i used to always be a dog player, but had some decent seasons.....but never great.


most are under this mis-perception that playing dogs is more manly or you more of an accepted way to play..."like big-deal" you posted a big fav....


i actually think it takes more balls to play favs and win...when you play a dog and lose, most are like ....oh well it was a dog, so it was expected to lose anyway.....

i play when i have an advantage....it just happens for me, favs. are where i have the most success....

im sure there a many out there making money playing dogs "madjack for one".....i just feel like its much harder and you have to have a bankroll because you obviously will lose more often that not.....


gluck to you, hope some of that helps.....
steel.
 
hammer1

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Penguinfan said:
Nothing is easy when handicapping games, but I'm really having a hard time figuring out how you guys that play nothing but dogs do it.

I've really been trying to look at games from the angle of trying to find a reason to play the dog and if I can't find any reason to then I take a look at the chalk. Two early games today are a good example. I just can't justify taking CWS or MIL.

Sure, either could win their game and, like I said, nothing is easy, but I can't find a good reason to play either one of them, but can find several good reasons to play the favs. I guess that is what the line makers want and I know they make a ton off people playing the chalk all the time, but man, I wish I knew how you guys find those dogs.
Click to expand...


As have said many times i will play illlogical line moves. Moves ag star/stud pitchers. Like Arieta yesterday 225 down to 195. Even though he pitched a stellar game for 7 innings Cubs bullpen blew the game. That is why i always wait till less than 30 min to game time to play. How do you cap cubs bullpen giving up 5 runs. If kershaw goes from -3.60 to -2.80 some one knows something... It ain't me as a rule. I have been privy to info sometimes over the years. Like Orel Hershiser dropping whopping 80 cents. Reason: Mom died that day. he gave up 6 runs in the 1st inning during a Cy Young season. I read lines more than cap. These days ev knows everything about everything. The $$$ knows something we don't !!! "Money Talks... Bullshit Walks " Years watching Lottery players at the Stardust gave me an eduction that is no longer available..
 
Terryray

Terryray

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some good advice this thread fellows!

some good advice this thread fellows!

almost always can find some reason to take any dog!

April is the best month for dogs. Everyone is still feeling out how teams and pitchers are, most lines are set on reputation and pre season prediction. So anything new and unpredictable here will bring in the dogs. Also many rotten teams play harder in April, before the realization sets in they have little to play for.

And dogs vs a divisional foe are always worth a second look.

and higher totals automatically means more unpredictability and volatility, so dogs also worth a second look here too.

White Sox are off a win (only 4 of their 28 wins this season weren't in bunches of two or more), they have a better road record than the Mets do a home record. Mets aren't swinging the bats too well of late, many 1 run wins and CWS have many one run losses....deGrom had a 4.64 ERA in the 4 starts before his last, Gonzalez has allowed only 5 er and zero walks in his last two starts....Could be a very tight game, like many Mets games, but I am on Mets.

Zach Davies could pitch a gem, and Garcia give up 4. But that is rather unlikely...Milk has more wins last 10 than STL, but those wins are vs Atl and Cinci.. Not as many reasons for taking Milk as CWS...so ya look for value. If Milk was in the +220 range, I'd take them...
 
BuddyWright

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Penguinfan said:
Nothing is easy when handicapping games, but I'm really having a hard time figuring out how you guys that play nothing but dogs do it.

I've really been trying to look at games from the angle of trying to find a reason to play the dog and if I can't find any reason to then I take a look at the chalk. Two early games today are a good example. I just can't justify taking CWS or MIL.

Sure, either could win their game and, like I said, nothing is easy, but I can't find a good reason to play either one of them, but can find several good reasons to play the favs. I guess that is what the line makers want and I know they make a ton off people playing the chalk all the time, but man, I wish I knew how you guys find those dogs.
Click to expand...


It doesn't take a mental genius to figure out if you bet dogs you don't have to win as many times to stay ahead as betting favs.
I personally believe in the philosophy if you bet on the winners dogs or favs you will be ok.
 
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