You NEED to read this thread about VALUE (Jord, NBA_kid, everyone)

[dms79]

First, please reference this thread:

http://madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?p=3242065#post3242065

I think we need to discuss getting 'value' with sports picks.

A few months ago, NBA_kid posted a game where the overnight was -140, he got -163, and the best I could get was -170. I posted that "I think Oakland wins, but the value is gone."

A few cappers, including ones I really respect, came back with "if you win you don't pay juice," and other such crap. That is nonsense.

People settle for lines moving from -140 to -170 when they wouldn't settle for +170 to +140. The three biggest elements of winning at sports are, in debateable order:

1) capping
2)line shopping
3a) not settling for shitty lines and 3b) arbing

Let's take a simple example re: value. If we flip a coin and it's heads, you get $2. If it's tails, I get $1. If it's a fair coin, you make 50 cents a toss, long term. Period.

Let's say that I KNOW that the Angels were a 60/40 favorite to beat Oakland tonight. Impossible, or I'd be a millionaire x 1000. If I get a line of -149 or better, I win. If I get a line of -151 or worse, I lose. If I get -150, I'm doing the same thing as playing the odds at craps. I'm purely gambling.

I hope this discussion gets some play. I believe it's very important.

If you don't wanna talk value, you can go with "why is Clint Hurdle such a dumbass that nearly cost me under 7.5 in Cincy?"

 

[dms79]

It's also important to understand the quantitative elements of sports gambling because, like in poker, it prevents tilt. Sometimes in poker or sports, you get your money in as an 80/20 (well, more like 60/40 in sports) and lose. Shit happens.

 

[Theboundbook]

It's also important to understand the quantitative elements of sports gambling because, like in poker, it prevents tilt. Sometimes in poker or sports, you get your money in as an 80/20 (well, more like 60/40 in sports) and lose. Shit happens.

I agree.....

 

[Jord20]

DMS... of course you are right on this. Not even a question. The pending result has no bearing on what your value at the time of the wager.

If you offer me 4-1 on a coin flip, I will make money and that bet has VALUE. Whether I was right or wrong in one instance, has no relevance to the long term results.

 

[Bisket23]

this is true...ill add 2 things


you can't really prove that there is value in one particular game, since you're basing it off a hypothetical "if they played 100 times" type deal, and there is only going to be one result. Obviously if you have a good long-term record, it means you were right more times than not, in there being value on the teams you were on.


Also, there is line value and then there's also situational value. Under "normal" conditions a team could be 60% to win, but what if some factors come into play that drive that up or down?

And yes you have to beat the closing line consistently to even have a chance of winning at this.


Line Value is the Science. Situational Value is the Art.