From Longshots to Super Bowl Contenders: How the NFL’s Final Four Defied Preseason Expectations

Mike Macdonald walked into the Virginia Mason Athletic Center last January knowing the truth: nobody believed. The 36-year-old defensive coordinator was being handed the keys to a Seahawks team that had just shipped out both Geno Smith and DK Metcalf after missing the playoffs. Sean McVay wasn’t in much better shape out in Los Angeles, while the Broncos’ rebuild was starting to yield fruit but not yet seriously ready to mount a Super Bowl run. The New England Patriots? Forget about it. 

Fast forward to Championship Sunday, and the entire league’s been flipped on its head. The Chiefs went 6-11, their ten-year postseason streak obliterated in stunning fashion after starting 0-2 and never recovering. Baltimore, installed alongside Buffalo and Philly as co-favorites, collapsed under Lamar Jackson’s season-long injury woes and their now-legendary inability to hold fourth-quarter leads. All the other big names have also fallen by the wayside, some earlier than others. 

Then there were four. Four huge outsiders in the preseason are suddenly competing for a spot at Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara. But just how big of underdogs were they before a ball was kicked this season? Let’s take a look. 

Nobody outside the Pacific Northwest gave them a prayer. You don’t trade away your franchise quarterback and top receiver in the same offseason and suddenly become a juggernaut. Except Mike Macdonald didn’t get the memo. 

The Seahawks signed Sam Darnold to a three-year, $100.5 million deal that raised more eyebrows than endorsements, but John Schneider’s gamble paid off in ways that redefined the franchise. Seattle rattled off a franchise-record 14 wins during the regular season, grabbed the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and captured its first division title since 2020. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the star of the show on offense, racking up a league-leading 1,793 receiving yards and proving that the former stars were no longer required. Darnold built on last season’s rebirth in Minnesota, but it’s the suffocating defense that has brought the Seahawks this far. They held nine teams to 16 points or fewer throughout the campaign, including that 41-6 dismantling of San Francisco in the wildcard round of the playoffs. 

In preseason, online betting sites made the Seahawks a mighty +6000 outsider, level with the likes of Arizona and Dallas. Now, popular upstart betting site Lucky Rebel Sportsbook makes them the +150 favorite. Talk about upsetting the odds. 

The dynasty was over, right? Sean McVay’s window had closed after the 2021 title, Cooper Kupp couldn’t stay healthy, and the Rams were destined to fade into mediocrity as their aging core declined. Except the Super Bowl-winning coach doesn’t do mediocrity. Los Angeles retooled on the fly, signing Davante Adams to a two-year deal after Kupp’s injury-plagued stretch made his departure inevitable. They added Poona Ford to stop the run after allowing 100-plus rushing yards in 15 games last season, including both playoff matchups. Coleman Shelton returned to provide depth on the offensive line.

The Rams headed into the season as a +2000 shot to win the Lombardi, not an afterthought, but by no means a frontrunner. All year long, their odds shortened, only for an overtime loss to Seattle in Week 16 to cost them the division and plummet them down to the NFC’s fifth seed. What followed was pure playoff survival. 

They escaped Carolina 34-31 in the wild card round, then outlasted Chicago 20-17 in overtime on the road. Back-to-back nail-biters that showcased exactly what makes this team dangerous—they don’t panic. Matthew Stafford’s seen it all, Aaron Donald’s anchoring a defense built to disrupt timing offenses, and McVay’s calling plays like a man who knows this might be his last shot with this core. If they get past the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game, it will be hard to bet against them in Santa Clara. 

New England at +8000 felt right back in September. The Brady-Belichick era was dead and buried, and the Patriots were supposed to be wandering the wilderness for years searching for an identity. Then Mike Vrabel showed up, Drake Maye delivered an MVP-caliber season, and suddenly the AFC ran through Foxborough once again. The Pats secured their first AFC East title since 2019 and their first division crown without Brady or Belichick since 1997. Read that again: 1997. 

Vrabel’s men have simply got better and better as the season has progressed. They were 1-2 after three weeks, and the playoffs seemed like a million miles away. However, a week five upset on the road against the AFC East’s new head honcho, Buffalo, changed everything. The Patriots would go on a tear, ending the campaign 14-3, with Maye’s scintillating sophomore season growth leading him to the brink of a stunning MVP award as well as the Lombardi. +350 odds say the most successful team in history reboots its dynasty days with victory at Super Bowl LX. 

Sean Payton’s third season was supposed to validate the rebuild. Bo Nix’s sophomore campaign was supposed to erase the doubts from his rocky rookie year. And it worked—spectacularly. 

Denver posted a franchise-best 14-3 regular season record, matching their 2015 Super Bowl-winning total and enough to claim the top seed in the AFC. They ripped off an 11-game winning streak that showcased elite defense and Nix’s maturation into a legitimate franchise quarterback. He tied for the second-most wins by a quarterback through two seasons with 22, trailing only Russell Wilson’s 24.

Nix torched Green Bay with four touchdowns in their playoff-clinching victory, becoming the first Broncos quarterback since Peyton Manning to lead consecutive playoff berths. Then came the divisional round against Buffalo—a 33-30 overtime thriller that had Denver one game from the Super Bowl. Except Nix fractured his ankle in overtime, and suddenly the Broncos’ championship dreams crashed into reality. Jarrett Stidham’s now starting the AFC Championship game, and Denver’s Super Bowl odds plummeted from +250 to +1200. Still, they’re shorter than the +2500 they were in preseason.