Plan Ahead Now – Betting the MLB Playoffs

Betting the MLB playoffs? Plan ahead now.

Key Points

– There are several things to consider when betting on the MLB playoffs.

– Bettors should go into the MLB postseason with a plan.

If you are a seasoned baseball bettor (or even if you aren’t), betting the MLB playoffs requires a bit of a different strategy than that of the regular season. It’s not as simple as trying to find a road moneyline underdog playing a division opponent or looking at wind speed and hitter-friendly ballparks. 

Betting the postseason requires a new plan specific to the best-of-seven series that will take place in the playoffs. Bettors don’t necessarily have to throw out any trends identified during the long regular season, but there are some new dynamics that must be taken into account.

Teams will shift from a five-man starting pitching rotation to a four-man rotation. This will impact both the starters as well as the bullpen. The relievers will pick up a starter that can be used in long relief situations. 

Teams with multiple pitchers with low ERAs typically do better in the postseason. Bettors can look at pitchers’ season performances and ERA to get an idea of how they will fare in the playoffs. There may also be data if a pitcher faced a team during the regular season. Bettors can then look at pitcher-batter matchups.

MLB teams that can go deep in their starting rotation as well as their bullpen are teams to watch when betting the postseason.

After a 162-game regular season, teams that do well earn home field advantage during the playoffs. Is it really that big of a deal though?

The betting public will almost always back a popular team – the New York Yankees, for example – when they play at home. The same is true in the postseason. Recreational bettors love home teams. 

In reality, having home field advantage in the MLB playoffs doesn’t provide that much of an advantage. Home teams win roughly 53.9 percent of their home games during the regular season. In the postseason, that number goes up to 55.9 percent. That’s not that much of a jump. Does playing at home help? Sure, but don’t overestimate its value when making a betting decision.

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Another factor that can play a role in betting the MLB playoffs is rest. Since 2005, having two days between games has not made much of a difference. In 507 such games, the split is 254-253. 

Three days between games hasn’t really been that big of a boost either. Over the same time period, Teams with three days rest are 85-82.

Teams with four and five days rest have done a little better. Combined, they are 80-66. Keep in mind though that these are likely situations where a team finished a series and then had to wait to play in a Game 1 of the next series. The Game 1 pitcher is usually a team’s ace.

In a small sample size – 5-6 in 11 games – teams getting more than five days rest between games actually do worse. All in all, rest is not everything it’s cracked up to be when it comes to the postseason in MLB. 

As mentioned earlier, the betting public loves popular teams, home teams, and teams with better records. Oddsmakers at sportsbooks know this and shade lines toward those sides.

This is exactly why one MLB playoff betting strategy should include looking to be against the public. Consider the following.

Since 2005, if an MLB bettor simply wagered on every playoff team that received less than 50 percent of the moneyline tickets that bettor would have had some success. A $100 bet on every such occurrence would have resulted in a profit of $6,575.

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Since 2005, there have been more than 450 playoff games in MLB. As one might expect, only six games separate the Over and the Under. The O/U record for all playoff games since 2005 is 218-224-27. The Under has a slight advantage at 50.7 percent.

Over the past three seasons, the Under has enjoyed a 54.6 percent win rate, which is something to note. However, one of the keys when it comes to MLB playoff totals involves low totals.

Remember, playoff pitching features a lot of matchups between some of the elite pitchers in MLB. As a result, there are some pretty low totals in the postseason. One thing bettors should look for are playoff games with totals of 7.5 and less. 

These are games where betting the Over has returned strong profits since 2005. In these games, the Over is 132-114-13 for a winning percentage of 53.7 percent. Betting $100 on all of these games would have returned $1,376. 

Don’t forget about momentum. Some teams just get hot at the right time. Seven wild card teams have won the World Series. Washington was the most recent to do so in 2019. The Nationals had some strong pitching with Max Scherzer and played well at the right time. Sometimes, betting with that momentum pays off.

Don’t forget about the run line when betting the MLB playoffs. There are plenty of one-run games in the postseason when you have the better teams in each league playing one another. That puts some value on a playoff underdog. 

It also puts some value on road favorites. A MLB road favorite wins by two or more runs 44 percent of the time. That’s something worth noting for the MLB playoff bettors. 

The bottom line is this. Consistent pitching, staying healthy, offensive production, and getting hot at the right time are all key factors to consider when placing wagers on the MLB playoffs.