Finding Value Betting the Super Bowl

Here’s how to find value betting the Super Bowl.

Key Points

– Finding value betting the Super Bowl takes time and research.

– It can be difficult finding value betting the Super Bowl because of all the media coverage.

Sports betting, in general, is all about finding value. When the potential reward for a bet exceeds the risk involved in that wager, you have value. If you continue to make your sports betting decisions in this manner over time, you will turn a nice profit. 

Unfortunately, it’s frequently much simpler to find value in games with less media coverage and less betting attention than a game like the Super Bowl. It is by far the most widely bet-on event in the U.S. and, as a result, is about the worst place to be looking for value. 

That doesn’t mean you can’t look for it, though. It simply means that you have to dig a little deeper and look very carefully for it. 

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Sportsbooks both love and fear the Super Bowl when the public is strongly behind one team. Books have the potential to generate enormous sums of money, but they also run the risk of suffering significant losses if they have an unanticipated bad day. 

When money swarms to one team and that team covers the spread, that is when sportsbooks are most at risk. Sportsbooks take every precaution to prevent it from happening because they are terrified of what could happen. 

That means the books will take every possible measure to balance the action right away. The point spread may open higher than it otherwise might if one team is expected to be significantly more popular than the other. If the action remains unbalanced, oddsmakers will take aggressive action. Predicting these football line moves is the key to finding value betting the Super Bowl.

Smart bettors that spot this type of activity can deduce that the favored team is favored by too much. This presents an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the underdog. The key is getting in at the right time. 

Now, you can’t bet blindly on the underdog. Remember, the favorite is favored for a reason and they still have a good chance of covering the spread. However, if the line were adjusted, the underdog would have a harder time covering. 

When you find a situation like this, you can find value betting the Super Bowl. The public loves favorites, but smart bettors often like a big underdog in games of this magnitude.

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The mad craze of NFL player props started with the Super Bowl back when William “Refrigerator” Perry was given odds on whether or not he would score a touchdown (he did!).

Now, there are numerous Super Bowl player props available and smart bettors will sort through them to find value. Many of them are a complete waste of time. The coin toss, for example, is a 50/50 proposition but pays out less than even money.

Bets like those on the length of the national anthem and what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach offer zero value and should be avoided by bettors looking to make money. 

Player props are appealing to bettors for a few reasons. One is that they are easy to understand. When betting the Super Bowl, player props are tied to statistics. Will Player A go Over or Under a certain number of passing yards? It’s an easy bet to understand.

The other reason Super Bowl player props are appealing is that sportsbooks will spend less time monitoring many of the prop markets. Sportsbooks are more concerned with the markets where they stand to lose the most money. Typically, that is on the game’s point spread and game total.

Not all Super Bowl player props are worthy of betting on. Smart football handicappers have a good chance of identifying those that offer value. With the sheer number of available prop bets, NFL bettors are likely to find at least one bet that could make their entire Super Bowl.

It might not work every year, but a parlay bet on the Super Bowl can offer tremendous value. It’s a creative betting strategy that can jumpstart your results. The trick is to do the research to find circumstances that are tied together. For instance, one team is favored by 3.5 points and the game total is 46.5.

The favorite has a great passing game and you know that one of the more common final scores in the NFL is 28-24. If the favorite won by that score, they would cover the spread and the Over would cash. The two bets could be played separately, each most likely at -110. A bettor could also play them as a parlay at odds of +260. 

Because of the likelihood of both bets paying out, a $100 bettor could profit $260 on the parlay. That’s value.