ncaa bowl plays (christmas day and beyond)........

[gman2]

updated as of 1/1/04
----------------------------------------------
4 unit...........0-1 [-4.4 units]
3 unit...........2-1 [+2.7 units]
2 unit...........20-12 [+15.8 units]
1 unit...........42-33 [+12.7 units]
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ytd...............64-47 [+26.8 units]
----------------------------------------------

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12/18/03 gmac bowl 7:30pm EST
1 unit....miami 1h (-7) (-120) over louisville
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12/22/03 tangerine bowl 5:30pm EST
PASS
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12/23/03 fort worth bowl 7:30pm EST
3 units....tcu (+10.5) over boise state
add: 1 unit tcu 2h (+6.5) (+100) over bsu
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12/24/03 las vegas bowl 7:30pm EST
1 unit....new mexico (+125) over osu
--------------------------------------------------------
12/25/03 hawaii bowl 8:00pm EST
1 unit....hawaii/houston over 76
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12/26/03 motor city bowl 5:00pm EST
1 unit....bgsu/nwstrn under 55 (+105 @pinn)
add: 1 unit...bgsu (-4) (-112) 2h over nwstrn
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12/26/03 insight.com bowl 8:30pm EST
PASS
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12/27/03 continental tire bowl 11:00am EST
PASS
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12/29/03 alamo bowl 9:00pm EST
1 unit....nebraska/michigan state under 49
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12/30/03 houston bowl 4:30pm EST
PASS
add: 1 unit...2h navy (+3) (+100) over tech
----------------------------------------------------------
12/30/03 holiday bowl 8:00pm EST
1 unit....texas/washington state over 58.5
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12/30/03 silicon valley bowl 10:30pm EST
1 unit....fresno (+3) over ucla
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12/31/03 music city bowl12:00pm EST
1 unit....auburn (-3) over wisconsin
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12/31/03 sun bowl 2:00pm EST
1 unit.....oregon moneyline (+165) over minny
1 unit.....oregon/minnesota over 60.5
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12/31/03 liberty bowl 3:30pm EST
2 units....utah (-2) over southern miss
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12/31/03 independence bowl 7:30pm EST
PASS
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12/31/03 san francisco bowl 10:30pm EST
1 unit.....colorado state (pk) over bstn college
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1/1/04 outback bowl 11:00am EST
PASS
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1/1/04 gator bowl 12:30pm EST
2 units......west virginia (+4) over maryland
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1/1/04 capital one bowl 1:00pm EST
PASS
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1/1/04 rose bowl 5:00pm EST
2 units.....michigan (+7) over southern cal
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1/1/04 orange bowl 8:30pm EST
PASS
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1/2/04 cotton bowl 2:00pm EST
PASS
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1/2/04 peach bowl 4:30pm EST
1 unit.....clemson (+5) over tennessee
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1/2/04 fiesta bowl 8:30pm EST
1 unit.....ohio state (+7) over kansas state
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1/3/04 humanitarian bowl 12:00noon EST
1 unit....georgia tech under 46.5
add: 2h 1/2 unit....georgia tech under 21.5
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1/4/04 sugar bowl 8:00pm EST
4 units.....ncaa bowl game of year...oklahoma (-6.5)
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[gman2]

hawaii/houston over 76......normally, my first look is "under or pass" in football but in this particular game, i cant see it any other way than over. yeah, im well aware that a 40-35 game is a losing bet and thats mind-boggling, but i think this number is where it needs to be. any total in the mid-70s is there for a reason. earlier this season, texas tech totals just couldnt be set high enough. the cougars/rainbows/raiders are just anomalies. they defy normal capping logic. these coaches are really stubborn about making their pass offenses work to perfection and they eschew running the ball. makes for a long, drawn out game. and on defense, its almost like they take the mentality of "the sooner we let you score, the sooner our offense can get back on the field". its gonna take a lot of points, but this one could approach 90 pts imo. bowls have been all overs to this point. maybe this is the one where you see an offensive clunker. but i dont think its gonna happen. briles gets a national stage to put his system on display. jones is more than happy to play that game. also, very rare that a total in the mid 70s keeps climbing. i think its climbing for a reason. the unders will definitely start to come in at some point, but i dont think its gonna be here.

 

[Square Gambler]

GL G, after tonite I'm hoping The DOGS and UNDERS start comin in. Very rough start to my 2003 Bowl season

 

[Nole]

Bring it on up gman, it's a winner!!

In honor of my buddy MJB:

:spotting: :jump: :spotting:

Get that chubb on!!

nole

 

[RexBudler]

nice call G MAN overtime was a nice way to finish the night .....good job buddy

 

[gman2]

northwestern/bgsu under 55.....im applying all kinds of capping techniques on this one. some of this play is based on numbers, while some of it is straight up gut feeling. as far as the numbers go, bowling green is one of those teams that is almost unbeatable at home and able to run up all kinds of offensive numbers, but away from the doyt theyre a little more average. they played six games away from home this year and not one game surpassed this vegas total of 55 points (those 6 away games had totals of 53,41,53,53,43,and 55) -- so they were all in the ballpark of this motor city bowl total, but none of them surpassed that number. of course some of those away gms were against stiff foes, but northwestern isnt an absolute pushover. i just dont buy that this number is "way off". bowling green has always been a juggernaut at home and not quite as explosive away from home. i think the wildcats are going to try and slow the pace of this game down. they run the spread offense, but its not a basketball-on-grass spread offense. theyre happy to run a lot of draws and qb keepers off it. not a real "quick strike" team, even though they spread it out. and i dont think bowling green is gonna dominate this gm like some think (even though id love to see another convincing win by a mac team). nwestern could beat bowling green at their own game. bgsu defense not used to seeing some of these sets cats will run. wildcats a little unconventional when it comes to 4th down. theyve left points on the board multiple times this year (going for it on 4th down instead of trying to take 3 with a field goal. that swings field position and eats up clock if unsuccessful) also, i know games are mutually exclusive and whats happened in past yrs doesnt have a direct impact on the game -- but this bowl has a weird history of having expected shootouts turn into low scoring affairs. last year was high scoring (bc/toledo) but prior to that gm, toledo/cincy was 21-16 in a game expected to be high scoring. marshall 25-14 over cincy the year before. marshall 21-3 over byu before that. with the recent yrs being played at ford field, maybe its just the atmosphere being different? cant put my finger on it. but i think bowling green wins this one about 27-20.

also, for side players, i think its worth noting this one has crossed under a key number since it opened (bowling green from -8 to -6).
makes you think a little. falcons are a heavy consensus choice. i dont use 'public choice' because thats not apropos. theres a lot of sharp reasons to play bowling green here; however, i just think the line move across a very key # is going the opposite way of the consensus.

 

[gman2]

also - woizee:
figured id just leave my response to your question in this thread instead of bringing up the old one. anyway- as far as minnesota/ oregon goes, i have a slight lean to oregon actually. ducks have been a good dog in bowl games recently (dog vs texas a few yrs ago, dog vs colorado a few yrs ago). they finished the season in very strong fashion. they didnt just back into a bowl game. minnesota is such an impossible team to figure out. they had their moments this year as well. their game vs michigan was a microcosm of their season. great first half, then got absolutely dominated in the 2nd half. gophers run the ball extremely well. thats gonna be a definite edge for them vs the ducks. but oregon should be able to move the ball up and down the field on that gopher defense as well. i would never talk someone out of a minnesota play if they feel strongly about the gophers. personally, im on oregon for a unit. not one of my strongest bowl plays by any means, but like oregon and belotti and a bowl dog with momentum.

 

[kneifl]

Good job thus far

Good job thus far

on your bowl selections....

I took both of the dogs today b/c I see them having more value than the faves today. What do ya think????

NW + 7

Cal + 3

kneifl

 

[gman2]

kneifl:

id have a slight lean to both dogs today, with neither being too strong.

with northwestern.....i think the 1st qtr is gonna be vital for them. sounds obvious, but its especially true with bowling green. if you let them jump on you, theyll blow you out. if you survive their first few drives, then you can grind them out. cats capable of running the ball on bgsu imo. if cats hang close out of the gate, i can see them possibly winning the game

with cal....i went back and forth, back and forth with this game. i ultimately decided to pass. this game is 100% about motivation. theres really no way on paper that vtech isnt better than a field goal favorite. but the way beamer's teams have just folded down the stretch the last few yrs, it makes you wonder. cal is such a weird team. theyre garbage some gms, and then explosive in some others. it seems they played the big boys close and then they were lame vs mediocre foes. if tech is motivated, then its hard to think they dont win by 7-10 pts. from what ive read, even beamer doesnt know what to expect out of his team. truly a toss-up. im considering waiting till half on that one. kinda see how tech comes out and go from there.

gl man

btw- your signature line is tops on the site. that shoromeo quote is a true classic

 

[kneifl]

Gman

Gman

Thanks for the imput and good luck on your plays tonight.
I think I am going with the dogs tonight - woof, woof....

kneifl

 

[gman2]

bowling green 2h (-4) (-112)...ill bite on bowling green in the 2h. northwestern seems to play "not to lose". i know theyre running the ball pretty well, but this game kind of reminds me of bowling green/toledo. same kind of spot. falcons have moved the ball pretty well. harris needs to quit being retarded and not force the ball. falcons could be in a lot worse shape right now. they pissed away some chances. i think bowling green wins this game by 3 or 4 points. basanez/harris is no contest. if bowling green can make northwestern pass, they have a big advantage there imo.
(also, the -4 is really juiced now -upwards of -130 - got it early right when the gm went to halftime. i think theres actually a big difference between 4/4.5 here. bgsu could win by 1 with the numbers that are on the scoreboard right now)

 

[gman2]

was in the ballpark with the projected total. worth noting that another strong rushing dog cashed in. new mexico was a clunker, but northwestern and tcu were definitely two strong rushing dogs that were very game in their respective bowl outings. very rare that you rush for that many yards and dont win the game straight up. nwestern definitely controlled the line of scrimmage when they had the ball. navy and west virginia would both be worth looks imo coming up. personally, dont think i can back navy but wvu looks really solid

 

[genosays]

Nice call(s) on the BG/NW game .... you definitely saved me some money as was ready to throw down on the over before reading your post .... looking forward to a big day tomorrow (college hoops, NFL, etc.) Good luck and continued success to you!!

 

[BigNick]

GMan

Have to let you know that you are fast becoming one of my favorite cappers on the sight, whether I agree or disagree with your posts (75/25%) I can expect solid analysis! Keep up the good work.

I have to say I was on the other side of today's BG/NW total(though I did cut my play down to 2 units after your input). I must say that it was much easier to lose, when you are watching the game with three winning tickets in your hand. Today was Santa Anita's opening day....Hit pick 3, Trifecta, and Exacta.

Question of the Day - Virginia/Pitt

Right off the bat I like the Over55 - Strong play 4 units.

I have to think that Pitt has not been able to stop the run all year and will be sure to allow several TD's to Virginia's solid ground game. This also makes me think that they will be going to the air early and often to keep up! High scoring like tonights VT/CAL game...35-31 or more! Also leaning to a small play on Virginia.

What do you think?

 

[kneifl]

Nice calls

Nice calls

on the BG ga,e Gman...

Had a pretty good day myself with the doggies today...

Tomorrow I'm backing the eagles at 6.5 pts early...big bet...

We'll see what happens...gl

kneifl

 

[AR182]

gman,

good job so far!!

keep up the good work.

 

[gman2]

bignick:

thanks for the good words. your post hits home if for no other reason than because what you said is definitely what im looking to do --- im NOT always going to be right. im NOT one to beat my chest and draw unnecessary attention. all im really concerned about is gathering/discussing solid information/angles on all these games, whether they be hoops, football, or whatever.

as far as the virginia game goes, i gotta be honest. my lean is to the under. but its a slight lean. i think the early start time could throw these guys out of whack a little bit. virginia is a weird team. theyre willing to follow the lead of their opposition. theyll shoot it out if need be. but theyll grind it out too if thats what their opponent wants to do. very slight lean to the under. youre right though, panthers rush D is extremely suspect (miami, nd, wvu torched them). overs have been coming in at an absurd clip. not sure if i can buck that here. might wait till halftime to see how 1h goes. gl if you go over the total. certainly some solid reasons to go over the number

 

[BigNick]

Gman

Thanks for the response...After further review feel very solid about the play.

Virginia -2.5 2units
Over 55 - 2 Units

I could be misyaken but the Continetal Bowl was played at the same time last year and Virginia took that one, feel they will have experience on their side. Also feel that the strength of schedule factor plays into this one. The one like opponent Va Tech is of no help since they both had strong Victories, slight edge to Virginia ( in state rivalry). The last piece is the letdown, I think pittsburg had bigger hopes. Like I said earlier see a 35 - 31 game.

 

[gman2]

nebraska/michigan state under 49 (1 unit play)
will write this game up monday morning when i get a chance

 

[Kdogg21]

Good luck Gman!!!