NICK YOUR ONLY 27 YEARS OLD YOU ARE WHAT US OLDTIMERS CALL A MOVE BETTOR I MEAN A MOVE SUCKER, I HAVE BEEN GAMBLING NOW 25 YEARS .KEEP FOLLOWING YOUR DON BEST SCREEN AND THERE MOVES AND YOU WILL GO BROKE.I BET A TOTAL LAST WEEK MY LOCAL BOY HE HAD THE GAME AT 200 PINNACLE AND WSEX MOVED THE GAME TO 198 SO I DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MOVE OFFSHORE AND PLAY UNDER WASHINGTON AND I CANT REMEMBER THE OTHER TEAM IT WAS SUPERBOWL SUNDAY THE F-CKING GAME WENT OVER 198 OR 200 BY 20 POINTS.I THINK THESE MOVES AND LINE CHASERS ARE SET UP BY THE ODDSMAKERS AND SPORTSBOOKS WHO PAY OFF DON BEST TO REEL IN ALL THE SAPS TO MOVE GAMES SO SUCKERS LIKE NICK DOUGLAS WILL FOLLOW.HOW MANY GUYS IN THIS FORUM ARE MAKING MONEY CHASING LINE MOVES:thefinger GOOD OLD FASHIONED HANDICAPPING IS HOW I HAVE SURVIVED 25 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SO STICK YOUR MOVES AND BUYING HALF POINTS UP YOUR ARSE ITS ALL A GIMMICK AND THE ONLY ONE CASHING IN IS DON BEST AND THE SPORTSBOOKS WHO PAY HIM OFF
(wrong Again Birthday Boy)
- Thread starter beantownjim
- Start date
ANYBODY WHO BETS A FAVORITE ON AN OVERNIGHT LINE SHOULD HAVE THERE HEAD EXAMINED 9 TIMES OUT OF 10 THE LINE WILL COME DOWN THEY INFLATE THE GAME FIGURING 9 OUT OF 10 SUCKERS BET FAVORITES SO MY ADVICE TO ANYBODY WHO PLAYS OVERNIGHTS UNLESS YOUR PLAYING A DOG JUST WAIT IT OUT THE NUMBER WILL USUALLY COME DOWN THIS IS A FACT
Jim,
I agree with that last post 100%. Unfortunately it has absolutely nothing to do with what I have been talking about.
I agree with that last post 100%. Unfortunately it has absolutely nothing to do with what I have been talking about.
Damnit, you posted again before I could reply. Actually, I agree with both of your last 2 posts. I will say that certain favorites get bet up all day but in general you are right about overnight faves. You previous post about steam players is spot on in my opinion.
BEANTOWNJIM IS GOING TO TEACH YOU AMATEURS SOMETHING TONIGHT ITS CALLED THE BEANTOWNJIM THEORY.PLEASE LISTEN FELLAS AND LEARN SOMETHING FROM MY YEARS OF EXPERIENCE.HOW MANY TIMES HAS A TEAM F-CKED YOU LIKE DALLAS DID TO ME LAST NIGHT BY SHOOTING SUCH A DREADFULL % AND YOU GET PISSED AT THE TEAM OR PLAYERS AND THE VERY NEXT NIGHT OR NEXT WEEKEND THAT TEAM ALWAYS COVERS THE NEXT GAME BUT YOU WONT PLAY THAT TEAM BECAUSE THEY SCREWED YOU THE NIGHT BEFORE.MY THEORY IS ALWAYS PLAY THE SAME TEAM YOU LOST ON THE WEEK BEFORE OR THE NIGHT BEFORE I WILL SAY THAT TEAM WINS OR COVERS 85% OF THE TIME THE NEXT GAME BUT MOST PEOPLE WONT PLAY THEM BECAUSE THEY ARE THINKING HOW THEY LOST THE PREVIOUS GAME
I GRIN WHEN I WIN
I COULD BE PISSED OFF AT DALLAS FOR PLAYING SO POORLY LAST NIGHT I HAD THE OVER 200 I KNOW 100 % OF YOU SUCKERS WOULD NEVER BET A TEAM YOU JUST LOST WITH THE PREVIOUS NIGHT OR WEEK I ALWAYS COME BACK WITH THE TEAM I JUST LOST WITH BELIEVE ME BOYS THE WIN PERCENTAGE IS STAGGERING.
IF A BUDDY OF YOUR LOSES A TOUGH GAME THE WEEK BEFORE ALL HE TALKS ABOUT IS HOW HE GOT F-CKED AND THAT HE WILL NEVER PLAY THAT TEAM AGAIN I DO JUST THE OPPOSITE I ALWAYS COME BACK WITH THE TEAM WHO SCREWED ME.
I BET OVER 200 WITH THE MAVS LAST NIGHT FOR 770 SO TONIGHT I AM COMING RIGHT BACK WITH THEM AGAIN UNLIKE 99% OF GAMBLERS WHO WOULD BE DOWN ON THE TEAM THEY LOST WITH I LOOK AT IT AS A FLUKE GAME THEY WILL REBOUND BIG AT HOME TONIGHT(I WILL BET ANYBODY DALLAS WONT SHOOT 5 FOR 26 FROM 3 POINT LAND TONIGHT I GRIN WHEN I WIN.
I JUST BET THE OVER 204 ON THE MAVS AND KNICKS WITH MY LOCAL BOY 880 TO MAKE 800 I WANT TO BE UP GOING INTO TOMORROW NIGHTS ACTION(I LOVE THIS GAME )
I GRIN WHEN I WINI COULD BE PISSED OFF AT DALLAS FOR PLAYING SO POORLY LAST NIGHT I HAD THE OVER 200 I KNOW 100 % OF YOU SUCKERS WOULD NEVER BET A TEAM YOU JUST LOST WITH THE PREVIOUS NIGHT OR WEEK I ALWAYS COME BACK WITH THE TEAM I JUST LOST WITH BELIEVE ME BOYS THE WIN PERCENTAGE IS STAGGERING.
IF A BUDDY OF YOUR LOSES A TOUGH GAME THE WEEK BEFORE ALL HE TALKS ABOUT IS HOW HE GOT F-CKED AND THAT HE WILL NEVER PLAY THAT TEAM AGAIN I DO JUST THE OPPOSITE I ALWAYS COME BACK WITH THE TEAM WHO SCREWED ME.
I BET OVER 200 WITH THE MAVS LAST NIGHT FOR 770 SO TONIGHT I AM COMING RIGHT BACK WITH THEM AGAIN UNLIKE 99% OF GAMBLERS WHO WOULD BE DOWN ON THE TEAM THEY LOST WITH I LOOK AT IT AS A FLUKE GAME THEY WILL REBOUND BIG AT HOME TONIGHT(I WILL BET ANYBODY DALLAS WONT SHOOT 5 FOR 26 FROM 3 POINT LAND TONIGHT
I GRIN WHEN I WIN.I JUST BET THE OVER 204 ON THE MAVS AND KNICKS WITH MY LOCAL BOY 880 TO MAKE 800 I WANT TO BE UP GOING INTO TOMORROW NIGHTS ACTION(I LOVE THIS GAME
)
Nick-
I diasagree with your statement: "yet you guys are calling this a fluke under"
No one called it a fluke! But there are numbers that may be used in someone's handicapping arsenal that fully expects a team to hit their averages when it comes to stats. This may not be your style or one of the checklist items you use when handicapping a game, some use computer simulations, other use systems., some use line moves, blah, blah. Not one of which is technically right or wrong, it depends on what works for you and your handicapping style. I happen to use this information when handicapping and it was one of the reasons I played the game.
Now here is some of that info that I mentioned in my post that failed me in this game although I specifically only mentioned FT's:
IF Dallas or Atlanta hit their averages (These are the averages of Dallas on the road, and Atlanata at home, this game easily covers not only the posted 198 line, but the 198.5 I got, or the 200 BTJ got. (We are not dealing with great defensive teams here, so averages can be expected, and not a reach.
For the year:
Dallas : 3 pt FG% (6-20 31.9%) FT % (18-23 79.5%)
Atlanta: 3 pt FG% (4-12 33.2%) FT % (19-24 76.6%)
I am rarely insulted, but in this case I took I felt it was condescending to the point where I felt I should reply. You seem rather intelligent so you will understand this. You are neither the expert in handicapping, nor the one to be dispensing advice. It would be much different if you came on and dispensed your numerical information as a "did you know" rather than a "This is why" approach. But I may be in the minority in that fact, and I am ok with that.
As for the point you cannot make money if the line moves against you? I guess it all depends on what the individual handicapped it at. It is always important to shop, but I bet into a number whether it moves or not depending on what I see happening. But in your post you made the point: "Forget handicapping and number of shots and shooting percentages and all of that. You can't make money in this business if you consistently bet lines that have moved against you." I don't believe in that, you are a number's guy, where is the supporting data that if a line moves against you, you are on the wrong side?
I wish you well on your next wager, but remember everyone has a different way of handicapping, everyone has a different point of view, embrace it, challenge it if you want but, NEVER put words into my mouth! ( I say this after reviewing the post I was the only one that mentioned to BTJ that it was a good play. So when you mentioned "You Guys" I assumed it as BTJ and myself.)
TSI
I diasagree with your statement: "yet you guys are calling this a fluke under"
No one called it a fluke! But there are numbers that may be used in someone's handicapping arsenal that fully expects a team to hit their averages when it comes to stats. This may not be your style or one of the checklist items you use when handicapping a game, some use computer simulations, other use systems., some use line moves, blah, blah. Not one of which is technically right or wrong, it depends on what works for you and your handicapping style. I happen to use this information when handicapping and it was one of the reasons I played the game.
Now here is some of that info that I mentioned in my post that failed me in this game although I specifically only mentioned FT's:
IF Dallas or Atlanta hit their averages (These are the averages of Dallas on the road, and Atlanata at home, this game easily covers not only the posted 198 line, but the 198.5 I got, or the 200 BTJ got. (We are not dealing with great defensive teams here, so averages can be expected, and not a reach.
For the year:
Dallas : 3 pt FG% (6-20 31.9%) FT % (18-23 79.5%)
Atlanta: 3 pt FG% (4-12 33.2%) FT % (19-24 76.6%)
I am rarely insulted, but in this case I took I felt it was condescending to the point where I felt I should reply. You seem rather intelligent so you will understand this. You are neither the expert in handicapping, nor the one to be dispensing advice. It would be much different if you came on and dispensed your numerical information as a "did you know" rather than a "This is why" approach. But I may be in the minority in that fact, and I am ok with that.
As for the point you cannot make money if the line moves against you? I guess it all depends on what the individual handicapped it at. It is always important to shop, but I bet into a number whether it moves or not depending on what I see happening. But in your post you made the point: "Forget handicapping and number of shots and shooting percentages and all of that. You can't make money in this business if you consistently bet lines that have moved against you." I don't believe in that, you are a number's guy, where is the supporting data that if a line moves against you, you are on the wrong side?
I wish you well on your next wager, but remember everyone has a different way of handicapping, everyone has a different point of view, embrace it, challenge it if you want but, NEVER put words into my mouth! ( I say this after reviewing the post I was the only one that mentioned to BTJ that it was a good play. So when you mentioned "You Guys" I assumed it as BTJ and myself.)
TSI
DOGFACE DONT WASTE YOUR TIME TALKING TO NICKY DOUGLAS YOU CANT CHANGE THESE LINE CHASERS THEY ARE ALL CAUGHT UP IN THE DON BEST SCREEN.NICK IS A HAM AND EGG PLAYER HE DOESNT UNDERSTAND PRESSURE AND HOW MEANINGFULL A GAME LIKE LAST NIGHT IS TO A TRUE PLAYER.HE PROBABLY HAD THE GAME FOR A C-NOTE SO ITS NO SWEAT MY BET LAST NIGHT WAS IMPORTANT ITS HARD TO COME BACK FROM A 770 DOLLAR LOSS FIRST NIGHT OF THE WEEK:shrug: I DONT COME INTO FORUMS TO TELL EVERUBODY HOW SMART I AM LIKE NICK DOUGLAS AND THROW AROUND A LOT OF FANCY NUMBERS I MAKE PLAYS ON PREVIOUS GAMES I HAVE WATCHED AND HOW TEAMS PLAY BOTH HOME AND AWAY.LINE MOVES AND DON BEST SCREENS ARE ACTUALLY KILLING GUYS WHO GET CAUGHT UP IN ALL THIS CRAP NOBODY CAN PREDICT NOT THE ODDSMAKERS OR THE LINE MOVES THAT WALKER,NASH,AND NOWINSKI WOULD GO 1 FOR 16 FROM 3 POINT LAND COMBINED AND TAKE 95 SHOTS AND ONLY SCORE 96 POINTS THIS WAS A FLUKE GAME.I LOK FOR A BIG GAME TONIGHT FROM THE MAVS AND THE NEW LOOK KNICKS WITH MARBURY CAN RUN WITH ANYBODY THESE DAYS
BOYS JUST A REMINDER NEVER BET THE NBA THE LAST GAME BEFORE THE ALLSTAR GAME OR THE FIRST GAME BACK THESE GOD DAM NIGERIANS ARE JUST WAITING TO BOARD A PLANE AND GET HOME AND BANG THERE BROADS AND SMOKE THERE DOPE.NOBODY WANTS TO BE AT THESE GAMES THEY ARE JUST WAITING TO SPEND 5 DAYS AWAY FROM THE GAME THEY DONT GIVE YOU THERE TOP EFFORTS.TRY AND DISPUTE THIS THEORY NICK DOUGLAS IT TOOK ME 20 YEARS TO REALIZE THIS.
dogface,
You are correct that you didn't call the under a fluke but you did say it "should" have gone over. I disagree completely. So what if both teams shot a lower percentage than normal? Did you read my writeup before the game? Both teams were shooting higher than normal percentages in the games leading up to this game so a lower than expected percentage *should* have been expected in this game. It happened to come in for me this time but it might not next time. I took issue with you acting like the over was the right side just because both teams hitting their normal percentages would have sent it over.
You may think I don't know crap when it comes to handicapping, but I do know this: If you think that playing a line that has already moved against you is O.K. long term and if you think that just because a game "would have" covered if a team had shot their normal percentages makes your losing play "the right side", then I know a hell of a lot more about handicapping than you.
You are correct that you didn't call the under a fluke but you did say it "should" have gone over. I disagree completely. So what if both teams shot a lower percentage than normal? Did you read my writeup before the game? Both teams were shooting higher than normal percentages in the games leading up to this game so a lower than expected percentage *should* have been expected in this game. It happened to come in for me this time but it might not next time. I took issue with you acting like the over was the right side just because both teams hitting their normal percentages would have sent it over.
You may think I don't know crap when it comes to handicapping, but I do know this: If you think that playing a line that has already moved against you is O.K. long term and if you think that just because a game "would have" covered if a team had shot their normal percentages makes your losing play "the right side", then I know a hell of a lot more about handicapping than you.
WELL THE GREEK ISNT A DUMMY HE JUST MOVED THE DALLAS AND KNICKS GAME TO 205 NICK DOES THIS MEAN MY OVER IS A LOCK TONIGHT OR IS THIS A PHONY DON BEST MOVE TO F-CK ME AGAIN
Like I said, Jim. I don't know a damn thing about line movement. I just know that I better bet a good line otherwise my value is gone.
Saint,
No, I do not have numbers to back that up. It is correct, though. I read on another site that over time getting the best line makes a 50% handicapper a 53% handicapper and getting the worst line makes a 50% handicapper a 47% handicapper. The person said the research was done by simply betting both sides blindly, hence the 50% number. This is using -110 spreads, of course, not in a moneyline sport. I don't know exactly how accurate or inaccurate that specific information is.
My advice to anyone who doubts this is to simply track your plays. Track your real results and then for each play go on Best Bettor and track what your results would have been had you bet the best line that was available that day. Then come back and tell all of us how much difference it would have made.
Saint,
No, I do not have numbers to back that up. It is correct, though. I read on another site that over time getting the best line makes a 50% handicapper a 53% handicapper and getting the worst line makes a 50% handicapper a 47% handicapper. The person said the research was done by simply betting both sides blindly, hence the 50% number. This is using -110 spreads, of course, not in a moneyline sport. I don't know exactly how accurate or inaccurate that specific information is.
My advice to anyone who doubts this is to simply track your plays. Track your real results and then for each play go on Best Bettor and track what your results would have been had you bet the best line that was available that day. Then come back and tell all of us how much difference it would have made.
Nick Douglas said:
Nick,
Of course this is true. It's more obvious than obvious. You cant always get the "best" line though. That doesnt mean you shouldnt bet the game. You have to bet with the lines you see when you see them. The "best" line for you may be gone forever by the time you capp a game.
My point is (and maybe I am misunderstanding some of what you are saying) that if you see a total of 198 (and that 198 was the best line for you) and your "capping techniques" tell you that over is a good bet, then that line moves to 199 or 200 - you cant claim "the bet is no longer a good bet". No one's capping abilities are that good. No one. Not in basketball where totals are so high and 1-2 points arent as significant as say a 1-2 goal move in hockey. Of course there isnt as much value (again obvious), and a final of 199 screws you, but you and anyone else here or any other forum isnt good enough to cap a game well enough to say over 198 is a good bet, but 200 is a no-go.
don't mean to interrupt but...
Dallas' (Nash I think) turned the ball over with 8 seconds left instead of scoring, which Atlanta most likely would have happily allowed him to do with the score being what it was.
He hits a layup, this whole conversation never takes place. BTJ gets the push or possible win if Dallas fouls. A lot is left to the basketball Gods when betting this game. I think BTJ's bad ju-ju in this whole situation was his downfall, esp spouting off while the game was in progress. Big-time no-no! (how's that for capping)
Also, nobody has brought up the fact of buying points either way. If you love a play so much at 198, whether the line you get is 198 or 200 why not buy down to 195. An astute player that picks his spots as the season goes along, not betting for betting sake, is creating his own "value" when buying points on a game that he feels he has capped extremely well. This philosophy will/may not work for someone who fires out multiple plays weekly, but for someone who sits and as posted above, "loves" an Under, one may show a little more interest in the insurance angle of such a wager.
EX: Loving a game at 198 but not at 200.
Would the passion be higher if one could get a 195/196 line?
Dallas' (Nash I think) turned the ball over with 8 seconds left instead of scoring, which Atlanta most likely would have happily allowed him to do with the score being what it was.
He hits a layup, this whole conversation never takes place. BTJ gets the push or possible win if Dallas fouls. A lot is left to the basketball Gods when betting this game. I think BTJ's bad ju-ju in this whole situation was his downfall, esp spouting off while the game was in progress. Big-time no-no! (how's that for capping)
Also, nobody has brought up the fact of buying points either way. If you love a play so much at 198, whether the line you get is 198 or 200 why not buy down to 195. An astute player that picks his spots as the season goes along, not betting for betting sake, is creating his own "value" when buying points on a game that he feels he has capped extremely well. This philosophy will/may not work for someone who fires out multiple plays weekly, but for someone who sits and as posted above, "loves" an Under, one may show a little more interest in the insurance angle of such a wager.
EX: Loving a game at 198 but not at 200.
Would the passion be higher if one could get a 195/196 line?
Nick-
We seem to be getting a little pompous with the reply. Arrogance is a term I do not use or take lightly, but your reply back to me reeks with arrogance.
First of all:
I understand that you may be using the word "should" against me in a form of sarcasm. But explain to me why it "should" of happened. When you handicap are you playing the law of averages. "Should" the NE Patriots have lost the SB based on that hypothesis, since they won 14 straight prior to the SB. Did you bet Carolina ML based upon that theory or do you pick when and where to use that "should" technique. I mentioned in my post that I use those types of numbers when I am handicapping a game, that's one aspect of how I formulate my numbers. I have a number going into a game before I actually look at the line...if it is a match-up that I like in this case an "over" I play it. A 2-3 point swing does happen sometimes it has helped and has hurt, but not enough to get me to stop playing a game.
As for this:
All I can say is WOW! And then follow it up with a REALLY! First of all, read anywhere were I even mentioned I cared about line movements for or against me... I said:
You should really take a step back when talking like that to me, I find it vulgar, unprofessional, and truly demeaning. First of all, either you are misreading the situation or my posts, or you have a preconceived notion of being attacked and being overly defensive is your mechanism of action. Either way being condescending is not the avenue to go with me.
This is also a little disturbing, Saint asks for information pertaining to your smart ass comment:
And you only have this to say:
Nick- you want to rip me and my knowledge base, yet have nothing to back it with. Man have you degenerated into the "Bush League" of posters with that crap. Your posting and weird contests are slowly losing my respect, your writing skills are excellent, too bad the rest is not on par. That is my personal and honest opinion based on my first and last dealings with you.
We seem to be getting a little pompous with the reply. Arrogance is a term I do not use or take lightly, but your reply back to me reeks with arrogance.
First of all:
I understand that you may be using the word "should" against me in a form of sarcasm. But explain to me why it "should" of happened. When you handicap are you playing the law of averages. "Should" the NE Patriots have lost the SB based on that hypothesis, since they won 14 straight prior to the SB. Did you bet Carolina ML based upon that theory or do you pick when and where to use that "should" technique. I mentioned in my post that I use those types of numbers when I am handicapping a game, that's one aspect of how I formulate my numbers. I have a number going into a game before I actually look at the line...if it is a match-up that I like in this case an "over" I play it. A 2-3 point swing does happen sometimes it has helped and has hurt, but not enough to get me to stop playing a game.
As for this:
All I can say is WOW! And then follow it up with a REALLY! First of all, read anywhere were I even mentioned I cared about line movements for or against me... I said:
You should really take a step back when talking like that to me, I find it vulgar, unprofessional, and truly demeaning. First of all, either you are misreading the situation or my posts, or you have a preconceived notion of being attacked and being overly defensive is your mechanism of action. Either way being condescending is not the avenue to go with me.
This is also a little disturbing, Saint asks for information pertaining to your smart ass comment:
And you only have this to say:
Nick- you want to rip me and my knowledge base, yet have nothing to back it with. Man have you degenerated into the "Bush League" of posters with that crap. Your posting and weird contests are slowly losing my respect, your writing skills are excellent, too bad the rest is not on par. That is my personal and honest opinion based on my first and last dealings with you.
I apologize for being arrogant and condescending. You guys are absolutely right that I do that a lot. I really do value humility and I should work to be more humble. Most everyone approaches handicapping differently and there is no formula to be a great handicapper. There are certain principles of handicapping that I do strongly believe in. Most people have handicapping ideas that are different. Cest la vive.
Oh, come on now, yyz. You met me. Do I seem like the arrogant jerk I sometimes portray myself at on Mad Jack's in real life?
............................................................................IntenseOperator said:
Intense
I hate to say this quite so loud but :
****ING BINGO !
I use this to my advantage under certain conditions and it has been my single biggest positive in winning wagers.
KOD
Originally posted by Nick Douglas
I apologize for being arrogant and condescending. You guys are absolutely right that I do that a lot. I really do value humility and I should work to be more humble. Most everyone approaches handicapping differently and there is no formula to be a great handicapper.
..........................................................................
Nick
The first step in turning around arrogance is recognition that
you do it. Unfortunately some people even when its pointed out to them are unable to humble down.
In the Free Picks sections your protected from too much feedback.
But in the message forums your wide open and believe me
we will set you straight when you talk down to anyone in here.
The main thing with you is you seem to think you got the goods
on what winning is all about. When in reality not only you but most of us arn't there yet.
I know I also have my own issues but then don't we all.
good luck
KOD
I apologize for being arrogant and condescending. You guys are absolutely right that I do that a lot. I really do value humility and I should work to be more humble. Most everyone approaches handicapping differently and there is no formula to be a great handicapper.
..........................................................................
Nick
The first step in turning around arrogance is recognition that
you do it. Unfortunately some people even when its pointed out to them are unable to humble down.
In the Free Picks sections your protected from too much feedback.
But in the message forums your wide open and believe me
we will set you straight when you talk down to anyone in here.
The main thing with you is you seem to think you got the goods
on what winning is all about. When in reality not only you but most of us arn't there yet.
I know I also have my own issues but then don't we all.
good luck
KOD
