(wrong Again Birthday Boy)

[beantownjim]

NICK YOU GOT THE WIN BUT DONT MAKE YOURSELF SOUND LIKE AN IDIOT.DID I HEAR YOU SAY THERE IS NO WAY THIS GAME SHOULD HAVE BEEN 200 POINTS.HOW LONG HAVE YOU BEEN WATCHING BASKETBALL TAKE A GUESS HOW MANY SHOT ATTEMPTS DALLAS HAD LAST NIGHT LIKE I SAID IF DALLAS SHOOTS EVEN CLOSE TO THERE NORMAL PERCENTAGE THIS GAME IS IN THE 220'S (BY THE WAY NICKY BOY DALLAS WAS 40 FOR 95) THATS 95 SHOTS NICK TELL ME THE LAST TIME A TEAM ALMOST SHOT 100 SHOTS IN A GAME AND COULDNT SCORE 100 POINTS ITS UNHEARD OF.NOBODY CAN PREDICT DIRT,ANTWON,AND STEVE NASH GOING 2 FOR 18 FROM 3 POINT LAND BUT IT HAPPENED AND THEY STILL ALMOST GOT 100 POINTS THIS WAS A SHOOT OUT FROM THE START DALLAS JUST WASNT ON END OF STORY.

(YOU GUYS CAN WATCH THE N.B.A. FOR THE NEXT MONTH AND YOU WONT SEE A TEAM ATTEMPT 95 SHOTS IN A GAME ITS UNHEARD OF THIS GAME SHOULD HAVE GONE WAY OVER)

 

[beantownjim]

ONE LAST THING WHAT HAPPENED TO ANTWON JAMISON 20 MINUTES 2 FOR 4 FROM THE FIELD FOR 4 POINTS.THIS GUY HAS TO GET AT LEAST 10 SHOT ATTEMPTS EVEN IN THE DALLAS OFFENSE HE IS A SCORING MACHINE MAYBE HE WAS HURT OR IN THE DOG HOUSE HIGH ON DOPE.WHAT THE F-CK SOMETIMES THESE GOD DAM NIGERIANS WANT TO PLAY AND OTHER NIGHTS THEY JUST POUT AND SIT ON THE BENCH LIKE I KEEP SAYING THE N.B.A. IS NOTHING BUT OVERPAYED (JANITORS) SOMETHING TELLS ME ANTWON JAMISON WOULDNT BE LECTURING AT HARVARD IF HE WASNT DRIBBLING A BASKETBALL JUST MY OPINION:weed: SMOKE UP ANOTHER ONE ANTWON AND WHY YOU ARE AT IT COULD YOU PLEASE TAKE OUT THE TRASH ON THE 6TH FLOOR YOU OVERPAYED JANITOR THANKS FOR THE EFFORT LAST NIGHT:thefinger

ALWAYS SLEEP WITH YOUR HANDS ABOVE THE COVERS THIS WAY YOU WONT BE TEMPTED TO TOUCH YOUR WEINER

 

[beantownjim]

JESUS CHRIST ITS 4.45 IN THE MORNING AND I AM SITTING IN MADJACKS WITH DOGS THAT BARK JUST THE 2 OF US NOW I KNOW MY LIFE HAS HIT ROCK BOTTOM I HAVE TO GO GET SOME COFFEE I HAD A TOUGH NIGHT SLEEPING

DOGS THAT BARK WHILE I HAVE YOU IN THE FORUM ALONE AND NOBODY ELSE IS AROUND BE HONEST (DO YOU SLEEP WITH YOUR HANDS ABOVE OR BELOW THE COVERS) I GOT A DIME ON BELOW THE COVERS NOW RUN ALONG AND GO PLAY WITH YOURSELF I FEEL LIKE BEING ALONE THIS MORNING:thefinger

JESUS SAVES,AND ESPOSITO SCORES ON THE REBOUND

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Beantown, you are a huge pu$$y. And a retard to boot.

Out.

 

[yyz]

This is another typical example of "I won, so I handicapped the game correctly", versus, "I lost, so I got screwed".

Neither one of you "handicapped" this game worth a shit, IMO.

If you find "value" in a game at 198, and think it is "gone" at 200, then you shouldn't be betting on the game.


Face it...........Nick's coin came through, Beannie's didn't. Tomorrow's another flip, errr day......

 

[beantownjim]

YYZ HOW DO YOU FIGURE WHAT'S THE CHANCES OF A TEAM LIKE DALLAS ATTEMPTING 95 SHOTS AND NOT SCORING 100 POINTS GET REAL THIS GAME WAS A DEAD OVER AND I KNEW IT.I HAVE BEEN PLAYING OVER IN A LOT OF ATLANTA GAMES THEY CAN SCORE ON SOME NIGHTS I KNEW THEY WOULD GET POINTS I JUST DIDNT THINK DALLAS WOULDNT.ATLANTA AT HOME ISNT A BAD OVER PLAY IF THE TEAM THEY ARE PLAYING IS POOR ON DEFENSE.I DONT CARE WHAT ANYBODY SAYS 99 TIMES OUT OF 100 IF DALLAS ATTEMPTS 95 SHOTS THEY WILL SCORE OVER 100 POINTS OF COURSE I HAD THEM THAT 1 % TIME.LIKE I KEEP SAYING NOBODY CAN PREDICT 5 FOR 26 FROM 3 POINT LAND BUT I KNEW GOING INTO THIS GAME BOTH TEAMS WOULD RUN AND GUN SO I DONT JUST BET ON THE BLIND.LOOK AT THE BOX SCORES AROUND THE LEAGUE AND LET ME KNOW THE NEXT TIME YOU SEE A TEAM ATTEMPT 95 SHOTS IN A GAME EVEN SACRAMENTO ONLY AVERAGES AROUND 90.MAN WHAT A WAY TO START THE WEEK,ALSO CHECK THIS STAT WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME YOU SAW THE MAVS SCORE 21 AND 20 POINTS IN THE 2ND AND 3RD QUARTERS LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT AGAINST A WEAK ATLANTA DEFENSE ITS JUST UN HEARD OF.

YYZ ITS A HUGE SWING I ALWAYS LIKE STARTING THE WEEK WITH A WINNER SO I CAN PLAY WITH THE LOCAL BOYS MONEY NOW I AM FORCED TO CHASE :moon:

 

[beantownjim]

KNICKS VS. DALLAS TONIGHT ALWAYS COME BACK WITH THE TEAM WHO F-CKED YOU THE NIGHT BEFORE BET ALL YOU WANT ON THE OVER 204 1/2 IN THIS GAME.IF DALLAS ATTEMPTS 95 SHOTS TONIGHT THEY WILL SCORE 215 POINTS NO WAY ARE THEY GOING TO SHOOT 5 FOR 26 AT HOME FROM 3 POINT LAND.THE KNICKS ARE AN UP TEMPO TEAM NOW SO I THINK THIS NUMBER IS JUST WHERE IT SHOULD BE.I JUST HOPE WE GET A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE (JANITOR) ANTWON JAMISON HE HAS TO TAKE MORE THAN 4 SHOTS AND SCORE MORE THAN 4 POINTS.

BOYS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A GOOD OLD TEXAS SHOOT OUT TONIGHT I LOVE,I LOVE THE OVER 204 1/2 DALLAS AND THE KNICKS.ENJOY THE MONEY BOYS AND REMEMBER I WORK FOR YOU NOT THE BOOKIES I GRIN WHEN I WIN

I WILL NEVER FORGET THE GREAT CASCADE ROBBERY OF 2003 THE DAY LENNY AND CASCADE SPORTSBOOK STOLE 660 DOLLARS FROM ME THEN CALLED ME A SUCKER:thefinger THANK GOD THEY ARE OUT OF BUSINESS AND CAN NO LONGER STEAL FROM HARD WORKING CUSTOMERS LIKE MYSELF

 

[ocelot]

Great thread!

 

[freelancc]

JESUS CHRIST ITS 4.45 IN THE MORNING AND I AM SITTING IN MADJACKS WITH DOGS THAT BARK JUST THE 2 OF US NOW I KNOW MY LIFE HAS HIT ROCK BOTTOM

:lol:

 

[KotysDad]

If you find "value" in a game at 198, and think it is "gone" at 200, then you shouldn't be betting on the game.

Great point. I hear this alot. I want to know what algorithms people use who say this. That has to be one finely-tuned method to be able to eliminate a pick at 200 and love it at 198. No one is that good.

 

[Trossi3389]

:grouphug: cant we all just get along... i myself had dallas and the over... had a feeling if dallas doesnt come in it was gonna be a under game... that atl/por trade must of put a fire under atlanta's ass......

 

[IntenseOperator]

BTJ=CHASING BIG-TIME NOW:nono: :nono: :nono:

 

[Nick Douglas]

You guys are missing my point completely. You should not be betting a game unless you have the best number or a number that was extremely close (1/2 point off or less) to the best number. Forget handicapping and number of shots and shooting percentages and all of that. You can't make money in this business if you consistently bet lines that have moved against you.

I will try to give a quantitative explanation. Books charge an extra 10% in vigorish for 1/2 point and 20% for a full point. But let's even say that the "real" value of 1 full point is only an extra 10%. Paying -120 increases the book's ROI on a 50% bettor from 4.5% to 8.3%.

Beating 8.3% ROI and making money on top of that is virtually impossible. Even the famed Computer Group, arguable the most successful and famous betting syndicate in history, reportedly only hit about 58% of their wagers. 58% at -110 gave them nearly an 11% ROI but 58% at -120 reduces the ROI to about 6%. That means they would lose nearly half their profit if lines are off by just one point using the 10 cent number.

When you start betting lines that are 1.5, 2 or even more points off the best available number, you are losing so much long term value that it becomes almost impossible to overcome. Why do you think sharp books welcome steam players? These players can kill a book like VIP that is slow to move their numbers but against a book like CRIS that stays sharp that lost 1/2 or 1 point on every bet turns a winning gambler into a losing one.

It's easy to say that, "if your bet at 198 is no longer a bet at 200, then you shouldn't be betting it in the first place," but that logic is dead wrong. Talk to real handicappers that legitimately make money betting on sports and you will find that line value is of the utmost importance.

 

[yyz]

It's easy to say that, "if your bet at 198 is no longer a bet at 200, then you shouldn't be betting it in the first place," but that logic is dead wrong. Talk to real handicappers that legitimately make money betting on sports and you will find that line value is of the utmost importance.

Another psuedo-slam at the "less-than-you" crowd?

Listen closely to this from a "non-real handicapper":


"You aint, either!"

I know that might come as a shock to you, emperor.....but you aint wearin' no clothes!

First off, your theoretical ROI is hogwash. It would be true if you actually bought the number at those prices, but since you still get the bet at -110, how does that equation hold up? If the number was 200 and moved to 202, I am not laying any extra to take 202, right? It's still -110, so I am still only bucking 54% winners to make some bacon. I can only guess that you are somehow factoring in the would be losses that add up between that 2 point differential over time?

I have stood fast to this, and will not waver:

If you believe, through your handicapping methods, that the line on a game should be 202, and the total is posted at 192, you have a perceived 10 point "range of value". If that line jumps up to 194, am I to no longer bet it, because the value has declined, in your oppinion? I still see an 8 point under-value in the game! So, when the game ends at 218, should I take solice in the fact that "I didn't bet, because I didn't have good value anymore"?

Perhaps I just misunderstand you, since we can't "chat this out"?

You wrote:


"When you start betting lines that are 1.5, 2 or even more points off the best available number, you are losing so much long term value that it becomes almost impossible to overcome."


Are you saying there is a 200 out there, and the person bets into a 202? If that's the case, I can see a little more of your reasoning. Otherwise, I don't get the logic, based on the information you have provided.

 

[Blackman]

Nick - I might be off but that explanation does not seem to take into consideration that the 198 and the 200 are both at -110. I agree that the %'s are near impossible to overcome when you are making plays in the -120 and -130 range, but since both numbers are at -110 I do not think that it hurts that much.

While I of course agree that you'll lose some plays over the long haul when you do not have the best number that was available, those odds are not nearly as overwhelming as the increased vig.

Hope this makes sense - all I'm trying to say that is if you have a total at 200 -110 and you could have had it at 198 -110 the %'s say that you'll either win or lose with both numbers, the odds of it hitting 199 exactly are negligible.

But when you are comparing 200 -110 to 198 -135, that is a % you can not overcome.

 

[djv]

I see last night there were the normal moves in college 1/2 points if you came in late that screwd you. How many times have some you guys felt that move from 3 to 3.5 in FB take you out.
As for totals in the NBA. If one has a schedule thats says. I play it this way when there number is 8 differant then mind. Be it under or over. If it works. Stay with it. But no way can I split hairs with 2 or 3 points. Hey I guess everyone has there own way. I like the 8 point differance. 8 also keeps me from haveing way to many games to play.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Points have value. That is what you guys are missing here. That is why books sell half points for 10 cents of vig. ov 200 -110 and ov 198 -130 have comparable value. Here is why using 1 "unit" as a standard wager:

Lands at 201 or higher = +0.14 unit difference for ov 200

Lands at 197 or lower = +0.14 unit difference for ov 200

Lands at 198 or 200 = -0.77 unit difference for ov 200

Lands at 199 = -1.77 unit difference for ov 200

We all wll agree that linemakers are relatively sharp and that in general the line is made a number at or close to where the total will land a majority of the time. Since the numbers 198, 199 and 200 are probably the 3 most likely numbers for a total to hit you can look at those unit differences and see how ov 200 -110 might actually have LESS long term value than ov 198 -130. Comparable value is probably more like the number Blackman gave, ov 198 -135.

 

[Blackman]

Fair enough - I see your point now. I did not think about the fact that 198, 199, and 200 are the three numbers most likely to hit statistically. My theory had them based on all being equal, which obviously is not the case.

 

[gman2]

nick:

its amazing that you will provide empirical data which supports your post (as it pertains to line value on totals)

yet you are still stubborn enough to insist that its not imperative to play at a dime-line baseball over the course of a 162 gm season.


(note: i agree with everything you posted within this thread. and your numbers dont lie. but they also dont lie that over the course of a 162 gm season, a non-dime line book -- olympic, carib, et al --absolutely rapes their customers in the ass rawdog with no condom)

 

[Nick Douglas]

gman,

I've always said I play dime line baseball but I also play at CRIS, which deals 20 cents on sides. I don't want to rehash this again but everything I've written about value is consistent. You play the best line. Restricting yourself to books that deal 10 cent sides always has been and always will be short-sighted.