(wrong Again Birthday Boy)

[beantownjim]

I AM ONE DUMB ARSE LISTEN TO WHAT I ENDED UP DOING MAN I FEEL LIKE JUMPING OFF THE TOBIN BRIDGE AND DOING A SWAN DIVE WITH A DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY OF 3.5.I TOOK DALLAS - 6 1/2 550 TO MAKE 500 THEN I WENT AND BET A 300 DOLLAR PARLAY DALLAS AND THE OVER I KNEW I WAS SUNK WHEN MY BOY SAYS JIM YOU NEVER PLAY PARLAYS I COULD TELL BY THE SOUND OF HIS VOICE I WAS ON THE WRONG SIDE IN HIS OPINION.SO NOW INSTEAD OF MAKING A NICKLE I AM STILL DOWN 570 GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.MY LOCAL GUY IS GETTING LINES FROM S.O.S. SPORTSBOOK HE TOLD ME ONE NIGHT WHEN WE WERE HAVING A COLD DRINK TOGETHER S.O.S. IS A SHARP BOOK HE GETS ALL THE CHANGES RIGHT AWAY,BEFORE COMPUTERS AND ALL THESE DON BEST LINE SERVICES I USED TO GET NEWSPAPER LINES WICH COULD AT TIMES BE 3 POINTS DIFFERENT THOSE DAYS ARE GONE.COMPUTERS ARE THE BEST THING THAT EVER HAPPENED AND THE WORST THE LOCAL BOYS HAVE GONE HIGH TECH

ANYBODY NEED A COMPUTER CASCADE SPORTSBOOK IS HAVING A GOING OUT OF BUSINESS SALE IN THE STREETS OF COSTA RICA

 

[THE KOD]

I AM ONE DUMB ARSE LISTEN TO WHAT I ENDED UP DOING MAN I FEEL LIKE JUMPING OFF THE TOBIN BRIDGE AND DOING A SWAN DIVE

.....................................................................

beantown

Wish I was closer to you, I would give you a ride.

Well first you failed to play the birthday boys play.

Then you chase and fall into another over trap.

You degenerate gambling slippy dick .

My only play of the night was North Carolina +4.

If you did end up jumping I might would have to follow you and try a triple axle with a twist.

KOD

 

[maverick2112]

If you think that playing a line that has already moved against you is O.K. long term and if you think that just because a game "would have" covered if a team had shot their normal percentages makes your losing play "the right side", then I know a hell of a lot more about handicapping than you.

Nick.........I play lots of games that I like even if the line may move against me 1/2 to 1 point. If I like a game and the team I like is favored by 6 so what if it move to 6.5 because services and the public likes it also. Why should I even give a damn if I like the team to win by 10. Its still a play for me.


The key to getting the best numbers is really a fallacy to me because a lot of times getting the best numbers has to do with when a person actually places the bet........Anyone who has ever gambled has had this happened to him numerous times.......you like team a -5 points knowing it is a good line so you put the wager in only to check back an hour later to see it moved to -4.5.........so see unless you know for sure which way a line is going to move then you dont really know for sure when to place your wager and get the best possible line. I just dont think it is possible to get the best possible line on every game over the course of the year .

If what you say really worked in the real world then all one whould have to do is get the early lines every day then place wagers against all the line moves and get the extra "value" on every wager and win day after day and month after month. If you have every tried this you know this kind of formula never works.

Dont get me wrong.....I agree with being a smart shopper but I believe you can get really bogged down with the lines moves, numbers,ROI etc etc...........instead of just trying to handicap the teams and what their expected performance is.

 

[maverick2112]

This whole discussion reminds me of a friend of mine who sends 2 dimes offshore all the time....... then loses a game by 1/2 a point.............then proceeds to lose all of it by going 3-7 or 2-8..........then he says " I would have won If I would'nt of gotten screwed on the line."

I then say......maybe if you concentrated more on picking winners and money mgmt than crying about a 1/2 point here and there then maybe you would be a little more successful.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Mav, you do make one good point. It doesn't really matter so much where you play but when you play it. At any given time books have have discrepancies in number of probably 1/2 point, maybe 1 point at most. If you have 3 outs or 7 outs or 27 outs, you probably are not saving any more than that.

But if you have only 2 outs and you know *when* to play it to get the best number, that's where your value is. You can frequently find 2 or more points in value by placing your bets at the right time, even if you only have 1 or 2 books funded.

Look, here is sometime I did and I would suggest all of you who are skeptical of what I say about line value try this as well. Track your plays that are bet 1.5 or more points off the best available line for that game. Meaning from open to close, if that game was available at least 1.5 points better than where you bet it, track the result. I think you will be surprised at your results.

 

[yyz]

Nick,

You are always going to win and lose games by a half point. You are saying don't bet a game if you don't have the best number. You are basing that on the potential for that game to land between the number you bet, and the number you could have had. We are saying, if your numbers show that your line is still better than the current line, we still have value.

This would be a little like playing the market, and you find a stock you love. It is at $6 a share, and you think it will hit $14. Before you can buy it, it jumps to $8 a share. Now, you certainly don't have it at $6 anymore, but if you still think you can make money, shouldn't you get in? I know this is a bit apples and oranges, but it's hard to make the point.

You want to say, "Track your plays that are bet 1.5 or more points off the best available line for that game. Meaning from open to close, if that game was available at least 1.5 points better than where you bet it, track the result. I think you will be surprised at your results."

I want you, in turn, to do some checking.


Take all the games you passed on, due to line inflation of 1.5 or more, and see if you would have won!

I think you might be surprised.

 

[dogface]

I for one will accept the apology.

A simple suggestion and do with it what you want...

You bring out some interesting observations, and thoughts, just relay them to the forum and see what the group thinks. I am not saying we will change your way of thinking or change the concept of your post but it will be deliberated, and that is what adds value ot the forum. When sharing information take the "I" out of it, and you will get a better respoinse, and I would assume better information back.

Just my 2 cents, and GL on your next wager!


TSI

 

[Nick Douglas]

yyz,

You gotta read more carefully, buddy. I didn't start passing on bad lines until a couple of months ago. What prompted me to do that was going back, looking at games where I bet a bad line and finding that those wagers were losers on aggregate. Now, I can imagine a wiseacre like yourself is thinking, "Well, most of your wagers are losers, so what's the difference?", but I do have an overall profit of a couple of dimes over the last several years. There was a large difference between the results of bets on good lines compared to bets on bad lines.

I already tracked mine before making the switch in playing style. Why don't you take a little time and track yours for a couple of months?

 

[yyz]

......but will you track the wagers you pass, and see how much money you are costing yourself? That is the question.

Like I said, everyone loses bets by a point or a half point. What about when you have the best line, and still lose by a point, or half point?

We all have stories about "money lost" due to getting the short end of a line. I fully understand that you are saying, "If you didn't bet into that line, you wouldn't have lost."

I say, it ballances out, and even goes in your favor, to keep making the wagers, if you believe you have the best line. What you are doing, in essence, is talking about a "middle". A bad middle, of a half point, to a point and a half. Will games land in this zone? Absolutely! My contention remains, far more will land on either side of that number frame, either costing you a winning bet that you refused to make, or losing a bet that would have lost even if you had gotten the "best number".

So, my question again is one of this:

Are you willing to "save money" by not betting a moved line, at the cost of giving up many more winners by accepting that line?


This of course is all reliant on you being able to handicap. If you continue to dwell in the .500 range, then you are dead on in your assessment.

 

[Nick Douglas]

yyz,

I didn't worry about getting a "good line" until a few months ago. Before then, if I thought the line still had "value", I bet it. Therefore, my charting of my results vs. bad lines is essentially the same thing as what you are suggesting.

I really do understand what you are trying to say. You are saying if you are a good enough handicapper, then a game that is a 57% winner at over 198 is still a 53% winner at over 200 and therefore is a money maker long term. In theory, that is true. First of all, nobody has numbers that sharp. Secondly, 2 points in the NBA is a hell of a lot. I would argue that even a 57% winner would see their percentage drop below break-even if they bet lines that are 2 points off.

Here is another point that should have been made earlier. Books have virtually unlimited resources while players do not. If a player makes an error by betting too many games, they go broke. If they make an error by betting too few games, they lose some opportunity cost but they keep their accounts funded and can come back with more winners the next day. The point there is to err on the side of caution. Part of that is not betting bad lines.

 

[maverick2112]

but will you track the wagers you pass, and see how much money you are costing yourself? That is the question.

Nick...........Thats the point I was also trying to make........if you're going to go back and look at the games you would have won by getting that extra 1/2 or 1 point then you also have to add in the games you would have won but did'nt play...........thats really like losing a bet when you have a winner and dont put it in.

For instance last night I liked Missouri against CU ......I got the line at -7 when I could have gotten it earlier at -5.5.............I still played it and won for 2 units.............if I would have worried about line value I would have lost 2 units only because the public jumped on the same game I did only they got their wagers in earlier than me.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Great, mav. You are +2 units so far tracking those wagers. Keep tracking them.