Pre-season College Football thread

[NY Reb]

Last year we had an interesting and informative thread in the last couple of weeks leading up to the opening of college football season, and I don't see why we can't do it again this year.

Anything you would like to discuss, ask, edify, or contribute in any way -- like which winners we should be on early in the year -- will fit very nicely in this thread. Anything involving the upcoming college football season is appropriate.

One topic I'd like to bring up immediately is that of the first games being offered on TV this year. What can we say about USC and VT? Olympic has USC as a 16.5 point favorite. Will they cover that? Or are they overvalued simply because they are USC? I'm kinda leaning towards VT in this one. USC has to travel across the country. VT will feel right at home, and they are no slouches. Look what they did to Miami last year.

Other games of interest: should Utah be favored by 9 over A&M? That seems like a lot for a mid-major over a BSC conference team.

LSU is listed as 17 over Oregon St. Can this line be exploited? Again, I'm taking a long look at the underdog. What do you think?

Any thoughts on ND and BYU?

Miss St and Tulane? No spreads for these two yet.

Miss St might be a team of value this season. I closely follow recruiting in the SEC, and MSU has some amazingly good talent. Several of their starters were seriously wanted by other SEC schools. They have 5 Parade All-Americans (6 before RB Nick Turner got himself kicked off the team.) He's replaced by another Parade AA, Jerious Norwood. State's QB is a true sophomore who played his freshman season as a WR, which might seem like a real challege for him. Yet he was the Mississippi POY coming out of high school and is a terrific athlete. There is talent on both lines -- the OL has lost some weight over the summer, going from 340 to 360 to 310-315. They are meaner, leaner, and much quicker. LBs and the secondary are better than anyone might think. Not only that, Croom has them fired up and believing in themselves. So keep an eye on this team this season -- they could surprise.

An interesting early game for me is Ole Miss and Memphis. Memphis is currently about a 4 point underdog I believe. They've gotten a lot of hype this summer, which often leads to disappointment -- see Auburn last year. Ole Miss will not fall apart because Eli Manning is gone. New QB Michael Spurlock is an amazing athlete and one of the two fastest guys on the team. He can take off and run like few QBs can. Both lines will be improved this season, and the RBs will surprise. The Rebels are intently focused on Memphis. They will not overlook them this year. What do you think?

Please feel free to join in however you like. I hope to hear from many. I will moderate the thread, as I do all my threads, and I think we can cover a lot of interesting stuff in the days ahead.

Also, I'd like to hear from anyone who especially follows my plays. I've heard that some people do this, but I'd like to know who you are.

Okay, enough for now to start this off. I'm looking forward to comments from other posters.

Best of luck to everyone this upcoming season. I'm planning, of course, on making it my best ever. Last season I hit about 56% overall in college, and about 70% of my 10* specials. I'm looking forward to the challenge of topping those numbers. Only disappointment was a poor showing during the bowl season, but that was an aberration, as I've long been good with the bowls, and I predict a comeback there.

OK, guys, looking to hear from you.

 

[Superbear]

I am looking at these dogs.Especialy the Bearcats.The main thing I look for in "sleeper" teams is the amount of seniors among the returning starters.Take a look at the Cincinnati Bear Cats.9 returning starters on offense and every one of them is a senior including Gino Guidugli the quaterback.11 seniors on defense and 7 of them are returning starters.If you include the punter and kicker this team has 18 returning starters and 18 seniors.



New Mexico State at
Arkansas has 1 guy back on offense


Cincinnati at
Ohio State


Akron at
Penn State


Michigan State
Rutgers home dog and a cover machine


Miami (OH) have lots of returning starters
Michigan


Fresno State might win this one outright
Washington

UNLV have alot of guys back on defense
Tennessee

 

[Scott4USC]

One topic I'd like to bring up immediately is that of the first games being offered on TV this year. What can we say about USC and VT? Olympic has USC as a 16.5 point favorite. Will they cover that? Or are they overvalued simply because they are USC? I'm kinda leaning towards VT in this one. USC has to travel across the country. VT will feel right at home, and they are no slouches.

I think USC might be overvalued. USC success this season is placed soley on the OL. If the OL gels then USC wins the NC. Otherwise USC could lose 1-2 games early and maybe 1 game late in season. USC lost players to graduation and then lost players throughout the off season. These are the players USC lost in the off-season who were counted on returning! USC lost Mike Williams (#1 WR), Winston Justice (#1 OL), Hancock (#1 FB), Byrd (#1 TE), Guenther (#3 TE). Why is USC unanimous favorites to win the title after losing all these players who were expected to star at their positions?

USC is very inexperienced on the OL. However, USC is extremely talented on the OL. So it is to be determined how coaches get this OL prepared for V-Tech. In practices so far, they have been doing a decent job run blocking but having some trouble pass blocking. I expect USC to POUND the ball especially with all the stud RB's on this team. The OL will average 330 pounds and all have mobility.

USC weakness on defense will be the DB's. I would consider the USC DB's to be experienced but average. NO LOCKDOWN CORNERS.

Nobody will be able to run against USC. That I can guarantee. The DL and LB's are awesome and have plenty of depth. 3-deep!

So you must ask yourself this. Will V-Tech be able to have a passing attack? If so, then take V-Tech + the points. I would look into their practice reports and see how Randall is doing. I do not think V-Tech has anybody electric on offense. I also recall Randall not being the best passing QB but he does have some mobility (not Vick type mobility).

As of right now, I think USC wins 31-10 (but plenty of more practices to be played). I have been extremely impressed with the practices and how intense the team is. I think USC may struggle on offense in the 1h, but USC will break away in the 2nd half. Taking V-Tech in the 1h and the UNDER in the 1h might be your best bet. USC also might go conservative and pound the ball early, especially since USC is going to have their best defense since Carroll took over. Expect a defensive type performance like you saw in the Rose Bowl but with better linebacking play.

A side note: V-Tech excels on special teams play, and USC has the #1 punter in the nation. The USC punter kicks the living crap out of the ball but he is a tad slow on getting the ball off. Plus USC uses the worst punting formation so I fear a punt block in this game. A punt block could determine if USC covers the spread or not. Maybe someone can find a prop play on punt blocks.

Another side note: This will be the first time Norm Chow will not be teaching his offense to a QB. Leinart knows the offense and expect USC not to be on an offensive learning curve like they have been the last 3 years.

Last side note: I would wait until the NCAA rules on Williams. If Williams returns I will expect the offense to be at full swing against V-Tech. If Williams is not allowed back or suspended, then it will take 2 quarters for the USC offense to click. With Williams USC scores over 30pts without Williams USC scores over 20pts. It does not necessarily mean Williams himself will score 2 TD's but he will create problems all over the field. He will allow other players to go one on one and some of these players cannot be guarded one on one. For example, Reggie Bush!

Superbear

GREAT INFO ON Cincy. I def. will be capping every game this year for Cincy with the info you presented. I love taking an experienced team who the public is not aware of. If you see a great spot of Cincy this year please post it with analysis. I really would appreciate it.

 

[Cie]

LSU is listed as 17 over Oregon St.

LSU is favored by 20.5 over Oreg St at my book.

I would not lay 3 TDs because until last season LSU struggled for years in the early going when laying a big number. Then again, if LSU D is as strong as I think it will be this one could easily wind up a blowout.

FYI, a close friend of mine, who works in the LSU Ath Dept, has informed me that they have received at least a dozen letters and emails from zealous Beaver fans claiming that the Tigers are not as good as their record and performance last year would indicate. These letters have already been used by Coach Nick in an effort to reinforce the fact to his players that it is difficult to win a Nat'l Title, but much more difficult to remain on top.

 

[c20916]

NY Reb, I always look at your posts to see who your playing, and hope that we aren't on opposite sides. I do play most of your 10* though, unless I am on the other side then it's a no play for me.

I use the predicited score v the vegas line as one of my tools, I know DJ Chad usually posts that, if he doesn't do it this season I will see if I get time to post it every week.

Superbear, Northwestern has all 5 offensive linemen back and they have the QB returning who worked out hard in the offseason to improve his poor play from last year, he is looking to get a fast start. I am going to look for some value with them possibly early on.

 

[professor]

10*

10*

NY Reb,

I always follow your ten star picks and they have been great the past few seasons. I think that taking Ole Miss -4 is a great bet vs. Memphis. Nobody realizes how special the Rebels D will be this year, and our offense will still put up plenty of points, justin a diferent style than the Eli era.

I also think VaTech is a good bet getting the points. That is a game to wait and bet at gametime as the line will surely go up with the public betting on the Trojans. Also, I haven't seen a line yet, but I would take Toledo plus the points at Minnesota(unless the line is less than 7).

 

[Devil Dog]

Undervalued

Undervalued

Cincinnati+19 @ Ohio St. Mark Dantonio has injected new life into the Bearcats as this was an underachieving group last year. Offseason voluntary workouts started @ 0600 am and almost all the players showed up for every session. This team will contend for the Conference USA title. Without going into more detail for now, I have Ohio st winning by 7. "Fly-in-the-ointment" Ohio' State's X-Factor. I seen these guys @ the spring game and they have a good blend of talent. Having said that I don't believe that the Buckeyes would want to blowout their old DC as the last time they saw Dantonio they dedicated the Fiesta Bowl game to him.
Northwestern+7 @ TCU. This may be Randy Walker's best Big Ten Teams. Last year most of the players on the team weren't even shaving. Northwestern's O-line should roll over TCU. Details
later; Wildcats win this outright.
Enough for now.
Best Wishes
Devil Dog

 

[Superbear]

Olympic has Northwestern +8.5 right now

 

[NY Reb]

Superbear, thanks for the info on Cincinnati. I'll be watching them.

Scott, nice to see you contributing to my pre-season thread again this year. You certainly have a lot of insight on USC. Think they'll repeat?

Cie, thanks for your post. I'm really considering going with Oregon St in that game. Can't see LSU blowing them away. Of course, they could always keep them from scoring, I suppose.

c20916, Professor, and Devil Dog, thanks for your contribution. You guys are really making me look at the Cincinnati and Northwestern games.

Anyone with any insight or perspective on the FSU-Miami game? That's one I'm really looking forward to.

 

[Superbear]

Northwestern O line;

LT Trai Essex 6-4 320 Sr.

LG Ikechuku Ndukwe 6-4 320 Sr.

C Trevor Rese 6-2 280 So.

RG Matt Ulrich 6-2 310 Sr.

RT Zach Strief 6-7 335 Jr.

the other returning starters on O are the QB,a WR and a RB,..SO thats 8 on O

AND 10 RETURNING STARTERS ON DEFENSE

and a returning punter and kicker who are both seniors

that makes 20 returning starters on a team thats a +8.5 underdog to a TCU team that has 5 starters back on defense (only one of them is a D lineman,2 are linebackers , 1 corner, and 1 FS)

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks NY Reb for nice words.

Scott, nice to see you contributing to my pre-season thread again this year. You certainly have a lot of insight on USC. Think they'll repeat?

Yes I do think USC will repeat. However, USC will go as far as their OL takes them. Good news is the OL is very talented and deep. Bad news is the unit for the most part is inexperienced. I expect USC to be somewhat vulnerable in their first 3-4 games. I think this USC team will very similar to the USC teams you saw the last 2 years. Only difference is USC will start this season as a good/very good team and finish it as a dominant team. I also expect the defense to be very good this year and no team will have success running the ball against USC!

So if USC is somehow still undefeated by game 6, then USC will repeat! USC schedule is not too difficult either. Scary thing is will USC be tested all year? USC could enter the title game without being tested against an ELITE TEAM so that could be a huge question mark. We shall find out if USC can even get to the title game.

I agree with you in taking Oregon St. over LSU!

Anyway with any insight or perspective on the FSU-Miami game? That's one I'm really looking forward to.

I like FSU in this matchup. Not sure if I am going to make it a big play or not. I think RIX is going to have a breakout year. Remember Carson Palmer for USC did not have his breakout year until he was a senior. Granted Rix does not have the talent as Palmer but I think he will have a very good senior year.

FSU has a great OL and very talented running backs. This alone will make it easier for Rix to have success and Rix is a mobile veteran QB. Watch out for RB BOOKER. He is a stud!

FSU returns 9 starters on offense to Miami's 4 on defense. FSU lost a good amount at LB...but they actually could be even better this year at that spot. Very talented LB corps.

I also am not sold on Berlin as a QB. He has shown me nothing. I also have my doubts on Coker as a head coach. This will be the first year Miami plays with Coker's players. Coker did not have a typical Miami season last year and do you remember how many 1st round draft picks Miami had?

In this game you might be getting a more hungry team (FSU), better coached team (FSU), better QB play (FSU) better OL (FSU), and better running back play (FSU).

FSU should win this game!

*I don't understand why they would play this rivalry for the 1st game of the year. I think it is unfair for both teams and the better team might not win this game. The more veteran team could and I think FSU is the more veteran team! That said, I am excited as hell to watch this game! So that could be my answer as to why it is being played so early!

 

[NY Reb]

The Noles didn't like Berlin as a Gator, and they don't like him any more as a Hurricane.

 

[NY Reb]

Memphis at Ole Miss.

I understand that a good case can be made for going with Memphis here. They have their strongest team in years, and have collected some real talent who are being well coached. However, they are not better than Ole Miss. The Rebels are at home and have a strong revenge motive. When team members have been asked this summer what game are they most looking forward to, without hesitation or exception they answered, "Memphis."

About Spurlock: Ole Miss had a QB before Eli by the name of Romaro Miller. He was an athletic sort, good arm, ran well, and was a 3-year starter, his senior year being Eli's freshman year. Well, Spurlock is a lot better than Miller, and would have been starting as a soph last year if Eli were not on campus.

Michael has been patient, understanding that it was Eli's team, but now as a junior he's ready to roll. He has a stronger arm than Manning! Eli would win in the consistency and accuracy categories, but he can't throw it as far as Spurlock can. Spurlock is also a dangerous runner, a 4.4 type who will shake up defenses once he turns up field. He can score on any play, one way or another. This will be an extremely dangerous offense who will get their points against anyone they play. Winprine might be a more polished QB in the season opener, but I'll bet Spurlock raises some eyebrows.

I follow SEC recruiting very closely, and I'd say the Rebels have the best OL in the SEC. Buckles and Johnson at guards are 4-year starters. Junior RT Tre Stallings was a high-school All American, like Buckles, and will be starting for the 3rd year. Junior center Chris Spencer, 6-4, 315, is the best of the bunch, incredibly strong, and will be picked high in the draft either this year or next. Junior LT Harris is the only 1st-year starter, yet, with the perfect tools to protect the QB, he is also a pro prospect.

The Ole Miss defense is the best it's been in over a decade -- especially the DL and secondary. There will be new starters at linebackers, but there are 2 seasoned 5th-year seniors, as well as super-talent among the youth. (Keep super soph Patrick Willis and freshman (MS POY) Gary Pack in mind. DT McKinley Boykin is as talented and as strong as any in the SEC. He throws OLs around. Remember his name.

WRs are fast, talented, and deep. Cutcliff coached teams will always have talented QBs, WRs, and OLs. Junior RB Vashon Pearson, explosive and fast, will be the best Ole Miss has had since Deuce. In other words, this team is loaded, and severely under-valued.

Cutcliffe seems to be buying into Bobby Bowden's theory regarding QB recruiting: get a QB every year, but get that GREAT QB every OTHER year. This way, you have a well-prepared junior to take over every two years. FSU has done this for years, except for the notable exception of Chris Rix, after a few strange things regarding QBs happened in Tallahassee. But that's another story. Anyway, Spurlock is coming in as a 4-year junior, and when he leaves super-recruit Robert Lane will be in the same position. They've got a good thing going at Ole Miss.

Ole Miss will be undervalued in their first few games. Public perception is placing too much importance on the departure of Manning. Eli was one of college football's greatest QBs, and will be star for the Giants for years, but his departure did not leave the cupboard bare. Cutcliffe has built a real program in Oxford, and there won't be any weak Rebel teams in the next few years at least. Keep an eye on them this year, especially the first few games. At this point I like them big over Memphis.

 

[Scott4USC]

Nice write-up NY REB! You sold me on Mississippi!

I like how Ole Miss is strong on the DL and OL. I am a believer that games are won in the trenches.

 

[Devil Dog]

Superbear

Superbear

Your information on the Wildcats is correct. This seems like a solid bet as of now. I expect the line will drop. Reg bet.
Best Wishes
Devil Dog

 

[Devil Dog]

NY REB

NY REB

After reading your post on "Ole Miss".....Great insight. The potential trouble with Miss. is not their offense but their defense as they return only 1 in the Def-front 7. My preseason power ratings have Mississippi winning by 1. Mississippi has very strong technical factors on its side ; big class jump for Memphis. Memphis will do well in conference USA but then again this is not conference USA; add in the Rebels home game and difference in playing surface, not to mention the emotional factor, the Tigers may start the season 0-1. Pass for now.
Best Wishes
Devil Dog

 

[NY Reb]

After reading your post on "Ole Miss".....Great insight. The potential trouble with Miss. is not their offense but their defense as they return only 1 in the Def-front 7.

This is true, but the replacements are bigger, stronger, faster, and more talented.

 

[NY Reb]

Scott, I agree with your take on FSU. I predict that they will beat Miami, win the ACC, and compete for the NC. And yes, this is the year that Rix breaks out. He'll be a high draft pick next year. His skills match any QB in college football. If he gains consistency, look out!

 

[taoist]

NY Reb,

Although I disagree with the Ole Miss pick, you do make a good argument...and I may be slightly biased.... I think that you're absolutely right about the public putting too much emphasis on Eli's departure.... OTOH, Memphis has all 11 back on Offense and should put up some points in this one.... Might look at the Over if the line is right, as this should be a shoot-out in the Grove.

...it's almost college football time again. Seems like August is the longest month of the year, don't it??? LOL

...always look forward to reading your threads.

...good luck this season.

 

[NY Reb]

Taoist, the over in that game is probably a good idea. We'll keep an eye on that.

Since I have long specialized in the SEC, ACC, C-USA, and Big East, the shakeups of the latter three conferences have been very fascinating for me. When teams shift conferences, a whole bunch of dynamics are shifted as well.

The ACC got stronger while the Big East got weaker and C-USA will fall a little next year. I like the idea of Central Florida and Marshall joining C-USA. That will bring on some interesting new matchups. Otherwise, we'd have no idea how either of them might match up against Southern Miss or Memphis, for example.

Memphis was scary last year and will have a real football team this year. Albert Means at 6-4 and 330 will be a DT worth watching. Most by now know of DeAngelo Williams at RB. I remember a heated recruiting battle between Memphis and Ole Miss for this exceptional talent, and Memphis won this one. Danny Wimprine will be a senior at QB, and should look very good in most of his games. The only problem with Memphis, from a handicapping POV, is that they aren't going to surprise anyone, including the oddsmakers. In fact, the preseason publicity might backfire on them. We'll get a really good idea how talented they actually are after they play Ole Miss. If they can hang with the Rebels in Oxford, then they'll probably have a really good year. Still, they could be overpriced more often than not, at least in the beginning.

Southern Miss might be down a little this season, at least in the beginning of the year. They don't have a lot of big-play offensive threats, and I don't see them as being as solid defensively either. I might be wrong -- wouldn't be the first time -- but they are a little light in both lines. Mississippi is not a logical state to host 3 D-1 football programs, and USM gets the worst of it when it comes to recruiting. They've maintained a masterful program under the circumstances.

It might take even longer to figure out Auburn and Alabama. Bama has a strange combination of highly recruited players and little depth. Injuries, or the lack of them, could determine how the season goes. And who knows what's happening with Auburn? If they don't have a dominating rushing game this season, then who can be depended on for anything? We'll see how dominant their defense can be -- and that will tell a large part of the story.

More later. Comments are more than welcome -- anything about college football.