Pre-season College Football thread

[taoist]

The only problem with Memphis, from a handicapping POV, is that they aren't going to surprise anyone, including the oddsmakers. In fact, the preseason publicity might backfire on them. We'll get a really good idea how talented they actually are after they play Ole Miss. If they can hang with the Rebels in Oxford, then they'll probably have a really good year. Still, they could be overpriced more often than not, at least in the beginning.

I can't agree...at least not wholeheartedly. Memphis won't surprise the oddsmakers because as a smart man once told me, the guy that makes the lines knows more about the game than almost everyone...and memphis won't surprise the hardcore college football handicappers, like some of the guys in this forum...but I think that Joe Q. Public will not be aware of their potential because Memphis has never gotten any respect in the football arena, so I don't see them being too overpriced...that is unless they give Ole Miss a beating in which case they will definitely be overpriced for the Conf USA schedule.

...you are absolutely correct that this opening game will set the pace for the rest of the season. I've already sold my Tennessee tickets for week 1 so that I can go down to the Grove to root on my Tigers.

...if you see that o/u come out, please post it b/c if it's in the range of 45 or less, I think I'll be on the over. Good luck this year and keep posting that good info, brother.

 

[flapjack]

Odds to win Orange Bowl:

USC, I feel should win it all, but at 3-1, it is not worth taking them at this point. So instead, I'm loading up on underdog picks:

I like BIG:
Miami 10-1
FSU 10-1.

Medium
KSU 35-1.
WVU 40-1

Small:
Auburn 35-1
Ohio St 27.5-1

All of these teams schedules set up very nicely for a run. Miami and FSU get their big game out of the way by 9/6 and don't have a conf champ game to trip them up. Plus, the game is in FL which should give them the extra home field advantage. Big 12 N is weak this year, KSU gets OU at home, no Texas. WVU's schedule is a cakewalk and no conf champ game. I think they'd get taken apart in the OB, but at 40-1, I'd take my chance on a talented, well coached team winning one big game.



And, just cause the odds are so damn high and the last team that lost a son of Archie went on to win it all with Tee Martin at the helm:

Ole Miss 150-1


Granted, these are all long shots, but I believe the way the schedules set up and the talent levels that one of the 2 FL schools will be playing there and at 10-1, I'm laying big $'s on both.

 

[NY Reb]

flapjack, I like the FSU bet a lot. I think they have a great shot to win it all this season. We'll know real quick, with Miami coming up. I like FSU big over Miami this year.

Has anyone had experience with BetRoyal? I am fascinated by their lines. Do they pay promptly?

 

[bamachuck23]

Reb,

Just wanted to say hello and good luck this season! You helped a young guy out ALOT last year. Hope all is well and GL this year.

--Chuck

 

[NY Reb]

Thanks for the kind words, Chuck. Hope you have a profitable year. Take care.

 

[bamachuck23]

Reb,

How do you see the SEC West ending up this year? Obviously, LSU is tough, but I don't know if they will do it again. I must say, I am glad that no one is talking about Bama this year. We have a WEAK schedule for the first time in years. Will there be a surprise team coming out of the West this year? Would love your 2 cents...

--Chuck

 

[NY Reb]

Chuck, I think Bama has excellent talent and questionable depth. They can play with anyone in the country, and yet I don't know how consistent they're going to be. Faiigue and/or injuries could be a factor. I think a lot will be learned about both teams when Bama hosts Ole Miss on Sept 11. Whoever wins this game might be that unpredicted sleeper in the SEC West.

I am really excited about the FSU-Miami game. What a great way to start the season! It should be a super game, a rocking and socking type of game. Yes, I'm still leaning towards FSU. Just think that something special might happen to this team this year.

That USC/VT game is fascinating. I know that USC is capable of blowing away anyone, but they are going from coast to coast to play what will basically be a home game for VT. VT has a senior QB who will keep them competitive, and they still have lots of talent who when motivated can be very good. What was it they beat Miami last year...31-6 or something? They are capable of such things, and I think they will be very motivated. Then again, they could get blown away. A very interesting game to me.

The next Thursday we have A&M-Utah and Northwestern-TCU. Why is Utah favored 9 points over A&M? Can someone answer this? Have the Utahs of the world caught up with the Big 12 already? If I were an A&M coach or player, I'd feel that my manhood was insulted. I am looking to see how these two teams actually compare to each other on the playing field.

Northwestern is a tempting play, getting 8 whole points against a C-USA/Mountain West team. They are a senior laden squad with some talent. Yet are they really as athletic as these TCU guys? TCU definitely has more playmakers. You know, this could be one of those games where the 'public' sees a great upset in the making, only to find their boys from the Midwest thrashed by a strong TCU program that wasn't being respected enough. These guys are strong! They got a lineman who benches 635! Ouch!

There are several fascinating games for the following Saturday: How about Central Florida-Wisconsin. I love games like this. Central Florida is one of those half-unknown, mystery-like teams that no one knows much about, but when they go to places like Wisconsin they like to win. Interesting matchup in my eyes.

Michigan St-Rutgers. Here's a good one. Let's see, MSU is a 9-point favorite? Going into a Rutgers that has recruited and been coached well, and who would just love to make a statement. This is their chance? Will MSU be overconfident? Better not be. They almost lost to this team last year at home.

Oregon State-LSU. I love this game. Oregon St and all those points against a conservative LSU team starting out with a brand new quarterback. I'm not looking for any upset here, LSU is strong, but this game could be much closer than anyone (other than Oregon St) expects.

Tulane-Miss St. I guess this is the 'Croom Bowl.' That man has sure gotten some recognition, and he probably deserves it. He is a man of great integrity, which is just what was needed for a teetering, faltering program. MSU has surprising good talent. Seriously, I am a recruiting nut, and I know who they've got to work with. Main weakness will be QB and WRs, so the passing game might be wobbly. Anyone with any ideas about this game? MSU has the better talent and probably the better coach, but is the system still too new, is Omarr Conner, a great talent-to-be, ready for his first snap as a college QB? These are questions to be answered, but I don't have the answers.

Notre Dame-BYU. This game is so boring to me I can't even think of anything interesting to say about it. I guess there are people out there really into these teams, I just don't happen to be among them. Nothing personal to anyone, I'm just more of a Southeast and East Coast kind of guy. Any enlightenment on this game from anyone who knows these teams would be extremely welcome.

Let me hear from some of you guys; this thread is moving too slowly.

More later.

 

[pt1gard]

houston - rice

houston - rice

the ye ole sucker line of -2.5 but i sure liked HOU's offense and young QB .. dont know squat about Rice this year, havent got a mag even yet -- any thoughts?

gl gregg

 

[NY Reb]

I know what you mean, pt1gard. Houston does seem like the more attractive team, although I haven't really looked at this game at all. One point is that Houston is 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS since 1987. Favorite is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 games of this series. Rice only 2-5-1 ATS in home openers since '96. A lot of stats supporting the Cougars if you believe in trends. Then again, Rice has 15 starters back and they can score. Best bet on this one might be the over, just depends on how high they put the number.

 

[baltimore buc]

Ahh nice to be back. As Andy Williams once said "It's the most wonderful time of the year..."

Also nice to see all the babbling about USC SOS has quieted down. :clap: Everytime I would stumble back here this past winter it was the same old stuff.

Ok - what are people's thoughts on A&M-Utah. Last year it takes a failed 2-point conversion by A&M that gives the young Utah team the victoty in College Station. Last year, Utah was good to me, but the way I am seeing it this year is Utah is looking like last year's Auburn? I don't know about all of you, but everything I have read this summer is that Utah could "run the table" or "be a possible BCS team", which very well could be. My off shore has the game at A&M +9.5. I have to think that all this pre-season hype on Utah and the first game of the season could keep A&M in the game. Franchione is in his 2nd year and has always gotten better wherever he has been. A&M is looking (to me anyway) as a nice play for Weekend #1.

Always appreciate the input from all the cappers on this board. This is a great forum. Nothing better than listening to Chris, Kirk, and Lee on the tube, reading this forum, and sipping a Great One (black) from Dunkin Donuts on a crisp Sat. morning.

GLTA this year

 

[NY Reb]

Baltimore Buc, I agree with you totally. I've been eying this game from the beginning. This line is challenging A&M's balls. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if A&M won the game outright. And you're right about Franchione. Anyone who can lead New Mexico to an undefeated season has got to be good.

 

[NY Reb]

Thoughts of the day.

I was wondering how some of you feel about yourselves as gamblers. I think I'm going to write a book about gambling someday. Not the stats and systems and that kind of stuff, but the human side -- the personal experience of the gambler.

I don't like the idea of gambling being a 'problem' or a 'disease.' OK, when you're losing money consistently, then it's definitely a problem. If you see you can't win at it consistently, then give it up, don't ruin your life trying to be what you're not.

And I have little sympathy for these guys who gamble away the mortgage or junior's college funds. When it reaches that point, it's definitely a disease, and you need help. Avoid denial at all costs.

When it comes to guys who enjoy the sports and gamble for the fun of the action and hoping to pick up a few dollars on the side, well, I feel absolutely fine about that. Gambling in itself is a sport. In some places, England and Australia for example, you just go place your bets and no one things anything of it. In America there's a certain morality associated with gambling, and I don't buy it.

I like to think of gambling as a profitable hobby and vocation. For some, it's an honorable profession. Years ago I was giving a weekend workshop in Miami on elevated lifestyles, and one guy stood up to ask a question. I asked him what he did for a living, and he replied that he was a professional gambler.

Suddenly the room was energized with attention and respect. Everyone was immediately interested in him. Over the weekend, he was one of the more popular people in the workshop, and people kept moving to talk with him during breaks. It was right before the Super Bowl, so we asked him who to take in the Super Bowl, and he said, 'Take the under.' This wasn't very interesting to some people, some thought he was saying to take the underdog, but I placed a nice wager on the under. Turned out to be one of the most boring, and low-scoring, Super Bowls I've ever seen.

So, an honorable profession.

Hell, with the fun of being so absorbed in the games, gambling can be enjoyable just to break even. To gamble and not lose is a wonderful thing. To gamble and make money is bliss.

I certainly would never advise or encourage anyone to gamble. We all know that most people lose in the long run. But since we're actually here doing it, then lets do what we're doing with respect and honor. And lets bring home some money to the lady of the house now and then

Anyway, avoid losing money. If it happens too often, or if we can't properly budget and lose inappropriate sums, then drop it before it ruins your life.

If we can enjoy it and make money on the side, then it's one of the most enjoyable hobbies there is. I enjoy sharing it, and all our thoughts on this or any other subject, with you guys on this site.

Take care for now.

 

[flapjack]

Week one games

Week one games

First of all, keep up the great work Reb, really enjoyed the picks last year. Here are a few games I'm looking at for the first week: Would love to hear what you guys think. I going by older info, so if anyone has updates from Fall, would be much appreciated:

PSU -15
PSU had a horrible year last year, but will be at home, should be improved in all phases of the game and Mills - even though he's been up and down, does give them major experience behind center. And, where the games are won and lost, on the lines, they have all 4 back on the D and 3 back on the O on top of all the talent they have amassed on both lines. Scott is healthy again at TB and going up against a D that gave up 4.7 yds/carry last year (Wisc and Marsh both rushed for over 7yds/carry, 300+ yards last year!!!). Expect that very talented and very big PSU line to be blowing massive holes for Scott to run through. Everyone is down on Jo Pa and PSU, but they are only 1 year removed from 9-3 and I would expect them to control and dominate.

Akron, despite the hype around Frye, has all the ingredience for a bad opening day: 1) New Coach, 2) Few returners - 5 on O, 6 on D, 3) On the road in a very hostile environ, 4) Against a team from a stronger conf with veteran players out to prove something. PSU knows well the trouble MAC teams can cause, I don't think they will be taking Akron lightly.

Only Q is Rice and Chisley - are they playing?

BYU +4
Talk about looking ahead and past. ND moved this game up just so they would have a game under their belt for Michigan. Yikes. I don't think ND is anywhere near talented enough to travel into Provo and play BYU as a tune up game. If they are looking past, they are in trouble. BYU was devistated by injuries last year and should be much improved. Despite Utah's success in the MWC, BYU is still the most talented team in the MWC and will be healthy.

On O for ND, Quinn will be improved, but the TB position will be down this year as Grant is no Jones by any stretch. The line will be improved and one of the better in the country. On D for ND: The D line took some hits and will not be as dominant. Is Tuck 100%, anyone? Their pass D was suspect last year and with the loss of Duff, Earl and Bible. Don't see them improving here either. On O for BYU, the QB's are healthy and talented, they just need to produce. And, with the speed and talent they have at WR - Hale, Watkins, Coats, Wilkerson and the vulnerabilities of the ND secondary, they will have their opportunities. On D, despite the fact they only return 3 starters, that is deceptive as they return alot of experience and talent. Their D line should be strong anchored by Poppinga (1st team MWC). LB is a Q as they have alot of talent such as Bills, and Walkenhorst who started 8 ly, but not alot of experience. I like their DB's as Francisco returns at FS (1st team MWC) and they get Heany back after starting 2 years ago before injury last year. As far as special teams, Payne is back as K/P for BYU and has earned MWC honors at both positions. Fitzpatrick was solid last year for ND doing both as well. Duff is gone as a big time threat for ND. Slight advantage to BYU as Payne has 50+ FG range & 45+ Punt range and the loss of Duff will hurt.

Last year ND won this game 33-14 in South Bend late in the year. ND was +3 on TO's and out gained BYU 360-303. TO's where the story of the game and both teams where very down at this point in the season. But, BYU was a really different team than the one that started the year. Expect this BYU team to be much more like the one that started by beating up G Tech, outgaining (359 yds vs 306 yds) USC in a loss in LA and winning at New Mex. They could bearly field a team by the end of the year.

Any thoughts?

 

[bamachuck23]

Augur???

Augur???

Hey NYReb,

As you might have noticed I just made my way back to MadJacks recently. I'm not into baseball, so I've been gone since NCAA basketball ended back in April. I just wanted to see if you have talked to Mr. Augur lately. I hope all is well with him. He is a great capper and, along with yourself, helped me out a ton last year. If you talk to him, please give him my best and I look forward to his posts this year.

 

[NY Reb]

Guys, I was going to post this on Thursday when I usually post my college football thread, but this line is dropping like an express elevator.

I list my plays as I played them, not as the current line. So here's what I did:

7* USC/VT under 54

5* Teaser: VT +25, under 61.
I can't see how this game would exceed either o these numbers.

Man, I just think the defenses are going to be predominant on both sides in this game. I don't see a whole lot of scoring. And I can't imagine USC winning by over 25.

Anyway, these plays still have value, but if you want them don't wait until later. This line will go down, not up.

If you're not familiar with my plays, a 5* is a regular play, a 7* is something special, and a 10* is a GOW type play. I usually have 1-3 15* GOY type plays during the season, but we won't worry about anything like that right now.

Later.

 

[NY Reb]

Bamachuck, I have indeed heard from Augur -- he was telling me about a contest he has entered and is excited about. He did not mention whether he was or wasn't posting here this season, but I certainly encouraged him to. That man can really cap!

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on the plays this weekend and for the season buddy!


toy

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

BYU +4
Is Tuck 100%, anyone?

I've read that he is at 100%, but an ACL injury to an end who uses an outside move to get to the QB can be devastating. The DLine will be more productive and much deeper this year than 2003 and their front seven will be a strength for a change.

If Ty does have them focused on this game and doesn't hold back the playbook, I think they'll control both lines (and dominate on the OLine) and should win easily, however if BYU's Berry is able to make quick reads he could have success because Crowton's offense is something that is very difficult to prepare for. And then the control of the DLine will be irrelevant. I still give ND the edge, but it won't be easy by any stretch.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Defensive coordinator's comments from ND's official site

On the progress of Justin Tuck's recovery from knee surgery...

Baer: "I think he is really starting to play like the old Justin. He is still not where he needs to be. Anytime you come off that kind of injury, there is a concern when you start banging around with linemen. These last few days I have seen flashes of the old Justin and he is on the right track. I am excited about him."

Not exactly a ringing endorsement that you would expect if he was 100%

 

[NY Reb]

Thanks, Toy. Hope you enjoy a great season as well