Took Michigan HUGE and here is why....

[Scott4USC]

First I must thank Master Capper and his thread because without him I never would have had the opportunity to bet UM -3. I looked at his thread and he had the lines posted (which i had not seen yet) and I saw Michigan -3.5 and loved it. Then I scrolled down further and MC said he was "thinking" about taking Michigan for his biggest bet of the year so now I felt even better taking Michigan because I respect his handicapping. I immediately went to Pinnacle and they had Michigan -3.5 -105 and I bought 1/2pt and pounded it twice for $1000 each time. I got -124 and -134 on both wagers for $1000 each. Within minutes after my wager the line went to -4.5 and now is -5.5 but I still will post my analysis as why Michigan will cover my spread -3 and the current spread -5.5. UM would be a good tease play as well.

*This game is important for both teams but more so for Michigan. The game will not only give UM the opportunity to share the Big Ten title or win it outright but also send them into a BCS bowl game. OSU would like to be the spoiler but as you will see, I do not think they have the personnel to hang with UM.

*Michigan somewhat has underachieved on defense this year(had huge expectations on D) but they are solid. They struggled the last 2 weeks but that was against 2 spread offenses and OSU does not run a spread offense. Michigan defense often gives up the big play but OSU only has one big play-maker and he is a good one in GINN. Stop him, stop the big plays. Simple as that. I fully expect the Michigan defense to play with intensity in this game, something they have lacked in other games.

*Lets take a look at the other side of the ball for OSU. OSU on offense is struggling at 3 key positions. OL, QB, and RB. That is not a good sign for OSU especially in a big game against a team that is more talented and playing better than you. I always look at the OL units and OSU OL is not very good. There is a decent chance Michigan will be able to get pressure only rushing 4 lineman. HUGE advantage for Miichigan defense and should create turnovers. OSU QB is not very good and makes poor decisions.

OSU has the worst 3rd down conversion rate and fewest first downs in the Big Ten. Michigan defense just needs to play smart and not give up the big play. OSU relies on other teams turning it over and getting the big play. Take a look at some of the OSU's wins this year and that will prove my point. BIG PLAYS. OSU needs special teams TD's, INT's, Fumbles, and big plays from GINN. If Michigan gets pressure from their 4 lineman, they can afford to play back and keep everything in front of them. OSU CANNOT, I repeat, CANNOT march down the field and score TD's.

*Lets take a look at the Michigan offense. Starting a freshman QB and Running back scares me somewhat but both have played well this year. They have road experience playing AT ND, and if Michigan were playing AT ND this weekend it would have a different result.

The Michigan offense will not be facing a typical OSU defense. This will not even be the best defense UM has faced. OSU is solid at LB but are weak on the DL AND have secondary issues. Michigan should be effective running and passing the ball in this game. UM has an awesome RB (Hart) and WR (Edwards). In this game, UM 2nd and 3rd WR's will have an advantage over OSU's 2md and 3rd DB's. Avant and Breaston are solid and OSU has beat up in the secondary AND must find way to stop Edwards. That is where Michigan will have success in the passing game.

*OSU has an edge in special teams with Nugent kicking and Ginn returning kicks. I think Michigan will be ok stopping Ginn and I don't mind giving up FG's to OSU. TD's is what you can't give up because OSU does not have the offense to stay with Michigan in this game.

Michigan needs to play smart ball and they should win. I see a potential blowout if Carr has his team ready and UM executes well.

Good luck to everyone on rivalry weekend! Glad there is not a USC game so I can sit back and watch all the great rivalries all day. I also like Wisconsin over Iowa and will post my analysis on that game as well. Took Wisy +3 and ML.

30187334-1
1 4:57pm
14-Nov-04 10:00am
20-Nov-04 Football
Spread Michigan (-3) vs Ohio State for Game -124 1,240.00 1,000.00

30187590-1
2 5:01pm
14-Nov-04 10:00am
20-Nov-04 Football
Spread Michigan (-3) vs Ohio State for Game -134 1,340.00 1,000.00

 

[CWood97]

Wow, thats a lot of action and a lot of juice!

I sincerely hope everyone in the forum on UM cashes in, but I am not nearly as optimistic. I see it 28-26ish UM in a game that could go either way.

From a post I made in another thread:

Lloyd Carr as a Road Fav (ATS):

9-19-1 overall
off SU and ATS win 2-10-1
off back to back wins 5-14-1
when opponent more than .500 2-9

Also, UM has not been favored at Ohio Stadium since 1992, but they were favored for the '86, '88, '90 and '92 matchups going 3-0-1 SU but only 1-2-1 ATS.

 

[maverick2112]

Scott........I will ride your hot streak............You have pegged the BoSox in Jan.....Bush in Nov....Looking good on USC to win NC........now Michigan on Sat..........My question now is .........Whos gonna win the super bowl??????????

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Great post. My head says you are right. Michigan should win this easily. Rivalry games really get interesting if close in the 4th quarter. Hope you are right. gl.

 

[Scott4USC]

maverick2112 glad you jumped on board but wish you got -3 like me. This really is my first huge wager of the CFB season. Last year I had about 7 and I nailed 5 of them. This play should come through or else I pissed away all Bush winnings. :cursin: I do not have any current NFL future wagers going. I would take Eagles to win Superbowl if they had a better run stopping D-Line. Prob. Patriots will win it again "if" they get healthy.

DoMyDermBest you are right this play makes sense and that is why I bet it huge. A turnover here, runback there, and OSU could hang with Ohio St. But if things play normal, I should be holding a winning ticket. I think the line opened -3.5 so low because it is a rivalry game and both programs have a strong following and well respected. Plus it is @OSU. Michigan playing AT ND and AT Purdue will help these young players playing at OSU for first time. Shouldn't be a problem. Plus these young players are damn good players.

Here are the top 5 Big 10 "player" Stat rankings.

QB Rating
UM #3

Rushing Yards
UM #1

Receiving Yards
UM #1
OSU #5

Passing Yards
UM #4

Top 5 Big Ten "team" leader rankings

Scoring
UM #1

Rushing Yards
UM #5

Passing Yards
UM #4

Most Penalties
OSU #5
UM #9 (good thing)

Most 1st Downs
UM #4
OSU #11

After looking at my analysis in my original post and looking how both teams/players stack up against the Big 10, I gotta love I am only giving -3 -129 vig on Michigan to beat OSU. I will not be too disappointed if I lose this play because I have so many things pointing in my favor when handicapping this game that I did the right thing. I have won more times than I have lost when I have this much going for me in my handicapping.

I have yet to see a strong write-up supporting Ohio St. covering or winning this game. You mostly will read OSU can win because it is a rivalry. OSU can win if they force turnovers or get big runbacks from Ginn. Hell, UM can blow them out if they get all those too. I handicap the game if things play out normal which is the greater % of what will happen. Nobody here has had a write-up explaining the ins & outs as to why OSU can/will win this game. Nobody explained how OSU will stop UM or how OSU will suddenly improve. Nobody explained what changes or ways OSU can attack and be successful against UM. No playermatchups have been handicapped favoring OSU. That makes me feel even more confident about this wager. If I could get UM -3 -129 again, I prob. would add another $1000 to my wager. So lets see if the line keeps going up or if it comes down.

Good luck to all UM backers!

 

[gman2]

talent-wise, both teams are even. thats is not the issue with ohio state. if anything, this is one of their most talented teams under tressel. so michigan doesnt 'outclass' osu. but um certainly is more efficient on offense. if nothing else, at least osu now has smith in the shotgun and is trying to let him make plays with his athleticism. when the ball DOES get into the hands of holmes or ginn, then good things happen. i wouldnt think about betting osu with zwick under center. but with smith, the playcalling seems to be a lot more aggressive. ive always felt michigan was a top-5 caliber team this year. but the line is much higher than it should be.

 

[Chenker]

Scott- 2 questions....

Why would you bet 2 dimes on a game unless your bankroll is 75-100 K? Even the best cappers lose 45% of the time.

Why would you buy a half a point if you are so confident on this game and lay -129 etc. You would have to win close to 60% of the time just to break even if you are laying that kind of juice.

I know you have done pretty well recently but these types of plays will kill you in the long run.

 

[vyrus858]

Who cares what his bank roll is..He stated that hes letting his bush winnings ride on this one, so it's not like he'll be taking that big of a hit...He feels very confident about a play so hes taking it

 

[gardenweasel]

ohio st,imo,has been utterly lucky to win several games this year...talent-wise,they may be stacked...they certainly haven`t played like it,imo...they`ve been outgained in every big 10 game except indiana......

and if not for ginn,they`d have probably have at least 2 more losses..of course,they have ginn..lol

that said,these rivalry games are impossible to handicap.....and throw in the fact that 2 of michigan`s stars are freshmen...

although i have to say that after ginn,alex smith and the young oklahoma running back,braylon edwards is the best collegiate player i`ve seen this year......

these rivalry games are tough....i agree that michigan makes sense....that`s what scares me...

 

[CWood97]

talent-wise, both teams are even. thats is not the issue with ohio state. if anything, this is one of their most talented teams under tressel. so michigan doesnt 'outclass' osu.

Can't agree with you here, Gman.

Henne better than Smith/Zwick
Hart way better than Pittman
Michigan OL way better than OSU OL
Massquoi/Ecker about the same as Hamby
Michigan receivers the best in the nation

Michigan DL slightly better than OSU DL
OSU LB better than UM LB's
Michigan DB's better than OSU DB's

OSU K way better than UM's K
Breaston (now healthy) just as dangerous as Ginn on returns.

Man by man, UM outclasses OSU just about everwhere this year. Unfortunately for my boys, talent doesn't always win out. Especially on the road in the Big Ten.

 

[Scott4USC]

I agree with CWood97 and disagree with G-Man. Michigan has better athletes and are playing better as a team. Simply put, UM is executing better than OSU. CWood97 laid it out perfectly.

Chenker

Why would you bet 2 dimes on a game unless your bankroll is 75-100 K? Even the best cappers lose 45% of the time.

I know I don't use money management and part of the reason is because it doesn't work for me. I do not pick 5-10 games a week and hit 60%. I pick 5-10 games a year and nail 8 of them. Thats basically what I did last year only losing 1 game that I bet over $1000 ($1500 on ASU over Iowa). I did it 2 years ago and nailed most of my big plays and I nailed 3 ACCOUNT BETS 2 years ago and that is where I increased my bankroll substantially. If I lose on Michigan on Sat. my account will not be wiped out or even hurt too bad. I also have great USC futures wagers that total 5k to win 17k. (when you add up all the USC futures I made) So I can hedge that right now if I wanted too and take huge profit but I choose not too. I am greedy and shows how confident I am that USC can/will beat AU or OU. But I still may hedge if my opinion changes.

Basically I wager $10-$50 on games throughout the season and bump it up to $100-$1000's when I really like something. This year I have made ZERO $1000 wagers on CFB because I have not found anything I loved. I am patient.

Why would you buy a half a point if you are so confident on this game and lay -129 etc. You would have to win close to 60% of the time just to break even if you are laying that kind of juice.

That is an easy answer. For $124 more I can get Michigan -3 and for $234 more I can get -3. As you know, 3 is a key number and I always buy it down 1/2 or even 1pt to get -3 or -2.5 and if I am on underdog to +3 or +3.5. It is worth it to me. I do not want to lose $2,200 if UM wins by 3 when I could have just risked 100-200 more. Remember, I do not wager this amount often so it is not a numbers game. My regular wagers are $10-$50 a game (but i buy pts too at that size wager as well).

I know you have done pretty well recently but these types of plays will kill you in the long run.

I trust my handicapping ability and it has again been a great year. I have had 2 huge gambling seasons in a row and this will by my 3rd. 4 years ago I won $1000 and put it all on USC against Utah in Las Vegas and lost. So if you think about it, I profited 3 straight years and this will be my 4th if you take out my USC/Las Vegas bowl loss. 5 years ago I lost $400 for the year, 6 years ago lost about $500 for year, and 7 years ago won $800 for the year. Not too bad using this style of betting and I been gambling for 7 years now. I never chase big losses either. Last 2 years been unbelievable profits. If UM wins this Sat. I will have won 12k this year (9k of that was won on Red Sox and Bush not CFB) and still have my 5k to win 17k on USC to win NC. All posted here at madjacks and I usually just post my big plays at MJ's.

If you think about it, people USUALLY win their big plays. Its when you lose people chase and lose more. Or people get greedy and will not accept one HUGE day on a winner and try and bet bigger to increase their profits.

I miss your NHL picks last year Chenker. You were by far one of the best NHL cappers I have seen. Good luck handicapping!

 

[gman2]

cwood:

ohio state isnt hurting at the skill positions. like you said, its their offensive line that kills them. michigan holds a significant edge on the lines imo. as we know, thats where games can be won and lost. but if, for the sake of the argument, you dont worry about the lines and you just look at the skill and talent on the outside, i dont see a whole lot of difference, and im anything but an osu fan. but that edge in the trenches is why michigan is a top 10 team and osu is a fringe top 25 team.

 

[Scott4USC]

I agreed with gardenweasel's post and he shares my same feelings. Here is where I expanded on gardenweasel's post and more reasons why I took UM over OSU.

Michigan has out gained 8 of their 10 opponents in total yards.
OSU has out gained 3 of their 10 opponents in total yards.

Michigan has out rushed 8 of their 10 opponents
OSU has out rushed 4 of their 10 opponents

Michigan has out passed 4 of their 10 opponents
OSU has out passed 2 of their 10 opponents

In every game OSU has been out gained in total yards, it has been by an average of 119 yards
In every game UM has been out gained in total yards, it has been by an average of 28 yards

Both teams this year have played similar SOS with an edge to OSU with a stronger schedule.

Lets see how both teams have been playing in their last 3 games. Michigan played 3 tougher opponents in their last 3 games has scored an average of 27 ppg (not counting MSU OT pts) vs OSU scoring an average of 23ppg. The big difference is NOT the 4ppg but of that 23ppg for OSU how many of those pts were from special teams plays, turnovers, and big plays?

OSU does not have the offense to hang with UM. OSU needs UM to make mistakes of give up big plays. Are you going to wager on OSU getting those big plays or would you rather wager on UM not giving up those big plays? Even if OSU gets the big plays, can they still win or cover?

Here is something else people have not been mentioning. Ohio St. played Michigan St. after their BIG OT loss against in state rival Michigan. Lucky OSU. Ohio St. also played Purdue when Purdue clearly was on a downward spiral. Michigan BEAT Purdue @ Purdue when Purdue was ranked #12 in the country. Lucky OSU.

OSU has been decent in their last 3 games but it is VERY deceptive. Deceptive in that they caught teams at the right time and have gotten BIG plays or TURNOVERS to hang in against the opponent or even beat the opponent. Very deceptive.

If Carr has his team prepared and Michigan executes their gameplan against an inferior opponent Michigan will win comfortably. Do not give OSU the turnovers or the big plays that OSU so heavily relies on. Take advantage of the weak DL and banged up secondary of OSU. Take advantage of the OSU weak OL by rushing only 4 and keeping everyone back forcing OSU to march down the field. Very easy gameplan for UM to execute and Michigan has the talent/athletes to get the job done. OSU should NOT win this game.

 

[gardenweasel]

and double up on that m.f.`er ginn...........that guy`s given me nightmares this year....


ginn and don king getting into my pocket for half a C-note for "THE NIGHT OF THE MEDIOCRE HEAVYWEIGHTS"....

don king...cornered the market in the heavyweight division....and actually got several members of the world champion boston red sox to adopt his hairstyle....

quite a year for D.K......only in america...

 

[Dizzayton]

Scott, you are mostly right, it is hard to do a write up saying why OSU will definitely win, that's why they are 5.5 dogs. I disagree that OSU caught Purdue at a great time, considering Purdue was more than overdue for a big win.

The one thing that you are leaving out of your capping is 105,000 wild, drunk fans which a OSU win would make their lives better. It is tough to factor that into the stats or this and that. Bottomline, Michigan is not THAT good, you are talking them up like they are USC or something. OSU will have a gameplan and they will be the ones who execute. Smith will scramble around and cause problems, ginn is lightning waiting to strike and Nugent is Mr. Automatic. OSU D is not bad, and Mich Frosh could turn the ball over.

Your basically saying that if the game is played "normal" then Mich will cover, and you are right. But football and other sports are not "normal". There is guaranteed to be turnovers, there is guaranteed to be big plays, maybe freak plays, there is guaranteed to possibly be a run back or a blocked kick. And in my mind I will put money on the ball bouncing OSU's way on the home turf, you ask why? Because it usually does.

 

[CWood97]

cwood:

ohio state isnt hurting at the skill positions. like you said, its their offensive line that kills them. michigan holds a significant edge on the lines imo. as we know, thats where games can be won and lost. but if, for the sake of the argument, you dont worry about the lines and you just look at the skill and talent on the outside, i dont see a whole lot of difference, and im anything but an osu fan. but that edge in the trenches is why michigan is a top 10 team and osu is a fringe top 25 team.

I respect your opinion GMan, but still have to disagree. Michigan's talent at QB, RB, WR and DB is far better than OSU's.

I want to make it clear to everyone in this thread though, I don't think UM is the play here. There is far too much history to suggest UM will not play their best on the road (see Oregon/Iowa/USC last year and ND this year), and therefore will "find a way" to keep this game close.

GLto everyone on Michigan though!

 

[gman2]

cwood:

i can respect your stance. you know your stuff and theres no need to waver from your opinion. we just disagree. no biggie.

i think dizzayton makes a good point.
sure, if everything goes according to plan and the game features a lot of 'normal plays', michigan is going to win. theyre the better team, and thats why theyre favored on the road here.

but special teams and big plays and turnovers are not always 'flukes'. guys say you cant handicap them. and to a point theyre right. you cant cap a 100-yd INT run back for a touchdown.

but you know going into this game that ohio state is just one of those teams that finds ways to come up with special teams plays that keep them in games or otherwise alter the expected outcome.

can you cap osu recovering a michigan fumble on the michigan 25, having a -3 yard drive, and then nugent hitting a 55 yd field goal? probably not. but its happened enough that it doesnt surprise me any more.

can you cap ginn running in circles to take one 50 yards to the house? no. but when you have the kind of sick talent and speed he has, its always possible.

scott's right -- if the game doesnt have a lot of big plays, michigan wins and covers.

dizzayton is right too -- the odds of osu doing something to keep themselves in the game are pretty high too, given what weve seen from them the last 2 or 3 yrs

also, and im sure the guys from michigan and ohio who have seen this rivalry over the years would agree:

this rivalry always features huge plays from the studs. whether it be desmond howard, tim biakabatuka, eddie george, charles woodson ---- whoever. thats why this is a game that is LIKELY to feature some game-changing plays, its not unlikely that someone like ginn could be the one to do it for osu, or edwards for michigan

 

[Irish]

Just my humble opinion
Why is Smith be given credit as a great scrambler? against Iowa - 7yards / Penn St -26 yards / Mich st for 34 yards. He did have a big day running against Purdue and Indiana, not great defenses IMO. He will be able to scramble for some gains but Smith (about 150 yards total yards rushing) is not the player I think Michigan has to game plan around. As someone already on Michigan I would love to see him scramble.... look what happened to Stanton!

Just throwing this out... Smith has 150 rushing this season and Stanton from MSU has 555 yards. Stanton rushed for 80 against Mich in one half but would have more than likely rushed for 100 plus yards, do you think Smith is half the runner stanton is?

Personally I don't think Tressel would want him running around because that means plays are breaking down or coverage it too good.

GL
Irish

 

[Scott4USC]

Dizzayton

Scott, you are mostly right, it is hard to do a write up saying why OSU will definitely win, that's why they are 5.5 dogs. I disagree that OSU caught Purdue at a great time, considering Purdue was more than overdue for a big win.

If you can't come up for reasons/matchups as to why OSU will win, why the hell would you bet on OSU?

When Michigan played Purdue, Purdue was on cloud 9. When OSU played Purdue, they were on a downward spiral. You can't dispute that.

The one thing that you are leaving out of your capping is 105,000 wild, drunk fans which a OSU win would make their lives better. It is tough to factor that into the stats or this and that. Bottom line, Michigan is not THAT good, you are talking them up like they are USC or something.

YES, I am talking up Michigan because OSU is clearly an inferior opponent. If USC, OU, or AU were playing UM, they would be an inferior opponent to those 3 teams and I would pound them all against UM if I got -3.

I broke it all down and explained why. That doesn't mean OSU can't cover or win but I think it is a low probability.

As for the fans. UM played in front of 92,000 ND fans and played @Purdie as well. In rivalry games, aren't there fans from both teams? I Know most will be OSU but there has gotta be some UM fans there?

OSU will have a gameplan and they will be the ones who execute. Smith will scramble around and cause problems, ginn is lightning waiting to strike and Nugent is Mr. Automatic. OSU D is not bad, and Mich Frosh could turn the ball over.

Only thing you said that is true is Nugent being automatic and Ginn being great. Everything else has not happened this year so why should it happen this Saturday? I am willing to bet OSU doesn't execute just like they haven't all year.

Your basically saying that if the game is played "normal" then Mich will cover, and you are right. But football and other sports are not "normal". There is guaranteed to be turnovers, there is guaranteed to be big plays, maybe freak plays, there is guaranteed to possibly be a run back or a blocked kick. And in my mind I will put money on the ball bouncing OSU's way on the home turf, you ask why? Because it usually does.

No, you are wrong, there is no guarantee to be turnovers or big plays. Teams can prevent that. Take USC for example against the #1 ranked offense CAL. USC played back and did NOT let CAL complete a pass longer than 15 yards. Made CAL march the whole field and gave up everything underneath. Despite Cal QB having a perfect day, CAL only scored 17pts. So how many pts you think OSU can score? I am "hoping" UM has the same defensive gameplan especially if they can get pressure on the QB with just their front 4. That does wonders for a defense. OSU cannot march down the field with that offense they have. They can't do it and I am banking on the UM coaches realizing that. If I can realize that, they should too.

You might be right and all those things happen and OSU wins or covers. If so, I lose and can accept it. However, I still think UM can win/cover despite the ball bouncing OSU's way. OSU is an inferior team against UM. NO WAY UM should lose this game sat.

 

[taoist]

NO WAY UM should lose this game sat.

...famous last words.