Took Michigan HUGE and here is why....
- Thread starter Scott4USC
- Start date
Taximike said:
Yeah, in the end it came down to USC and OSU. He really liked the weather in LA, but in the end it was a football decision.
kosar said:
omg, put this one down as one of the funniest one-liners in MJs history. im legitimately laughing here. classic post kosar
OUCH! :scared
I did not think for one second OSU would blow out Michigan. I was tempted into putting an additional $1000 teaser with Michigan and Wiscy but changed my mind. Thank God! Would have lost both BADLY! :scared
Good game by OSU and Ginn has become one of my favorite players in college football. Great athlete and that poster was right, it came down to USC and OSU and he chose OSU. Carroll wanted him BADLY and now we all know why. The guy is a STUD! I think his father played a big role in his decision and early playing time at OSU. (plus closer to home) If he did come to USC he be starting right now for the #1 team in the country but at the time of his recruitment he would not have started or even played at USC. Major injuries for USC and players not allowed back would have bumped Ginn into starting role.
Back to the game. I really liked wox11 line...
That sums it up. Did Carr do such a great coaching job that Michigan really is not that good or talented? Everyone knows they had multiple close games this season but they showed great improvement as the season progressed. Or is Carr not a great coach? I really don't know because I am not a die hard UM or OSU fan.
My handicapping was solid as could be. One thing was wrong and one poster pointed it out. gman2 said he felt OSU was as talented as Michigan. He was right and I was wrong. I did not think OSU was talented outside of Ginn and their LB corps. However, OSU QB Troy Smith played great and he has not done that all year. Those are the breaks. So since I clearly was wrong on my "talent" evaluation, my handicapping this game fell threw and ended up in a loss. The talent difference was a major criteria/groundwork for my reasonings for UM winning the game. Big and costly error on my part but that is the reason I did not bet 50% or 100% of my account on the bet. I did not know both teams inside and out. I lost around 20% of my balance so I was not hurt TOO MUCH but def. a BIG dent into my account. Good news is I have patience and discipline to not try and get it back right away and do something stupid. Guess I made a great decision going to the Clipper game and taking advantage of those free box seats instead of watching my $$$ go down the drain.
Maybe my biggest mistake when capping this game (other than talent difference) is not factoring how crappy the Big 10 conference is. I def. will be betting against the Big 10 in bowl games. Hopefully we get some speed teams playing against them.
Also ended up losing small w/Wisconsin (another play I really liked and posted) and won another small play on Oregon St. (which I really liked). Thought about putting half my losses on OSU but that woulda been dumb but woulda ended up good! When I lose big I stop betting big for the day and when I win big I push it a little. For example if UM covered I prob. woulda put $500 on Wiscy and if I won that $1000 on Oregon St. etc.
Every week I make a list of my top 5-15 plays that I really like. This week I had 9 on that list and looking at it now, I ended up only winning 2 from that list. 2-7 is pretty bad. NOT A LUCKY WEEKEND FOR ME! Gotta remember that next year during rivalry weekend!
If I played them all, would won with Oregon St. and Miami Ohio, but would have lost with Michigan, Wiscy, Kansas St., BYU, Michigan St. New Mexico, & South Florida. :cursin:
GOOD NEWS is this Michigan game/team could make me money in bowl season. I will def. DUMP my whole account on CAL MONEY LINE vs Michigan. Last time I dumped my account was on USC vs Michigan last years Rose Bowl. Hopefully I get -200 or less. If CAL is -7 or higher, I might be screwed. Not gonna lay -300.
Once again, congrats to all Ohio St. backers and the team! Tressel had his team prepared and they played well. This was not the same OSU team we have seen all year. Maybe Tressel understands beating UM means more than winning games during the season. Therefore opens and executes things differently for this game. I dunno, but I did not think his team had any business winning this game and he proved me WRONG!
I do regret not putting $1000 on Ohio St. at +5.5 for a nice middle. Guess I got too greedy and wanting to make 2k on UM. Will I make the same mistake and be too greedy with my USC futures NC wagers of 5k to win 17k?
Oh yeah, I don't believe in jinxes but I sure made a solid case into starting believing in it. :142lmao:
Hope everyone had profitable weekend. Should be interesting to see who is ranked #2 in the country on Monday. Of the 2, I am hoping for Auburn. I think USC would have an easier time beating AU vs OU. Both would be great and hard fought games and USC vs OU prob. be the biggest money maker.
I did not think for one second OSU would blow out Michigan. I was tempted into putting an additional $1000 teaser with Michigan and Wiscy but changed my mind. Thank God! Would have lost both BADLY! :scared
Good game by OSU and Ginn has become one of my favorite players in college football. Great athlete and that poster was right, it came down to USC and OSU and he chose OSU. Carroll wanted him BADLY and now we all know why. The guy is a STUD! I think his father played a big role in his decision and early playing time at OSU. (plus closer to home) If he did come to USC he be starting right now for the #1 team in the country but at the time of his recruitment he would not have started or even played at USC. Major injuries for USC and players not allowed back would have bumped Ginn into starting role.
Back to the game. I really liked wox11 line...
That sums it up. Did Carr do such a great coaching job that Michigan really is not that good or talented? Everyone knows they had multiple close games this season but they showed great improvement as the season progressed. Or is Carr not a great coach? I really don't know because I am not a die hard UM or OSU fan.
My handicapping was solid as could be. One thing was wrong and one poster pointed it out. gman2 said he felt OSU was as talented as Michigan. He was right and I was wrong. I did not think OSU was talented outside of Ginn and their LB corps. However, OSU QB Troy Smith played great and he has not done that all year. Those are the breaks. So since I clearly was wrong on my "talent" evaluation, my handicapping this game fell threw and ended up in a loss. The talent difference was a major criteria/groundwork for my reasonings for UM winning the game. Big and costly error on my part but that is the reason I did not bet 50% or 100% of my account on the bet. I did not know both teams inside and out. I lost around 20% of my balance so I was not hurt TOO MUCH but def. a BIG dent into my account. Good news is I have patience and discipline to not try and get it back right away and do something stupid. Guess I made a great decision going to the Clipper game and taking advantage of those free box seats instead of watching my $$$ go down the drain.
Maybe my biggest mistake when capping this game (other than talent difference) is not factoring how crappy the Big 10 conference is. I def. will be betting against the Big 10 in bowl games. Hopefully we get some speed teams playing against them.
Also ended up losing small w/Wisconsin (another play I really liked and posted) and won another small play on Oregon St. (which I really liked). Thought about putting half my losses on OSU but that woulda been dumb but woulda ended up good! When I lose big I stop betting big for the day and when I win big I push it a little. For example if UM covered I prob. woulda put $500 on Wiscy and if I won that $1000 on Oregon St. etc.
Every week I make a list of my top 5-15 plays that I really like. This week I had 9 on that list and looking at it now, I ended up only winning 2 from that list. 2-7 is pretty bad. NOT A LUCKY WEEKEND FOR ME! Gotta remember that next year during rivalry weekend!
If I played them all, would won with Oregon St. and Miami Ohio, but would have lost with Michigan, Wiscy, Kansas St., BYU, Michigan St. New Mexico, & South Florida. :cursin:
GOOD NEWS is this Michigan game/team could make me money in bowl season. I will def. DUMP my whole account on CAL MONEY LINE vs Michigan. Last time I dumped my account was on USC vs Michigan last years Rose Bowl. Hopefully I get -200 or less. If CAL is -7 or higher, I might be screwed. Not gonna lay -300.
Once again, congrats to all Ohio St. backers and the team! Tressel had his team prepared and they played well. This was not the same OSU team we have seen all year. Maybe Tressel understands beating UM means more than winning games during the season. Therefore opens and executes things differently for this game. I dunno, but I did not think his team had any business winning this game and he proved me WRONG!
I do regret not putting $1000 on Ohio St. at +5.5 for a nice middle. Guess I got too greedy and wanting to make 2k on UM. Will I make the same mistake and be too greedy with my USC futures NC wagers of 5k to win 17k?
Oh yeah, I don't believe in jinxes but I sure made a solid case into starting believing in it. :142lmao:
Hope everyone had profitable weekend. Should be interesting to see who is ranked #2 in the country on Monday. Of the 2, I am hoping for Auburn. I think USC would have an easier time beating AU vs OU. Both would be great and hard fought games and USC vs OU prob. be the biggest money maker.
scott:
youre a class act. you dont owe anyone an apology, but nonetheless, a classy move on your part.
a few odds and ends:
1) obviously troy smith played out of his mind, and i certainly didnt expect him to play THAT well. but you could kinda sense a game like that coming because of how athletic he is. needless to say, he gives osu a completely different look than when zwick is in there. glenville high school is just feeding all kinds of talent into the big 10 right now. smith, pierre woods, ginn.
2) ginn would be on the field for any team in the country. you cant keep talent like that on the sideline. hed be on the field for usc. on the field for miami. and on the field for osu. hes a special talent.
3) you hit the nail on the head about tressel (what you know now would have helped before the game, but at least you can now apply toward future osu/um games): he GETS the rivalry. he understands how big it is and it means everything to him. hell, the first thing he spoke about in his press conference after accepting the osu job was about how they would be prepared to beat michigan. cooper always got great talent into the program but didnt quite understand the importance of this game. this puts tressel at 3-1 against michigan in his 4 yrs down in columbus. now that this week is over, i get to go back to my ohio state apathy, but have always liked tressel and gotta give him his due
4) one team i think is going to be a dangerous bowl team: purdue. they had a tough time stopping the snowball that had coming down on em the last month, but once they get a month off to prepare, theyre gonna be a solid bowl bet. but i agree with the rest of the big 10: not expecting too much if anything out of them.
5) im really surprised you didnt at least cash the wisconsin bet. ohio state cleared the way for wisky to get the rose bowl berth. badgers got the help they needed.... and then came up lame. that was a more puzzling result than the osu game. i know you had more on michigan, but you should have at least made some back on wisky. what a lame effort there.
youre a class act. you dont owe anyone an apology, but nonetheless, a classy move on your part.
a few odds and ends:
1) obviously troy smith played out of his mind, and i certainly didnt expect him to play THAT well. but you could kinda sense a game like that coming because of how athletic he is. needless to say, he gives osu a completely different look than when zwick is in there. glenville high school is just feeding all kinds of talent into the big 10 right now. smith, pierre woods, ginn.
2) ginn would be on the field for any team in the country. you cant keep talent like that on the sideline. hed be on the field for usc. on the field for miami. and on the field for osu. hes a special talent.
3) you hit the nail on the head about tressel (what you know now would have helped before the game, but at least you can now apply toward future osu/um games): he GETS the rivalry. he understands how big it is and it means everything to him. hell, the first thing he spoke about in his press conference after accepting the osu job was about how they would be prepared to beat michigan. cooper always got great talent into the program but didnt quite understand the importance of this game. this puts tressel at 3-1 against michigan in his 4 yrs down in columbus. now that this week is over, i get to go back to my ohio state apathy, but have always liked tressel and gotta give him his due
4) one team i think is going to be a dangerous bowl team: purdue. they had a tough time stopping the snowball that had coming down on em the last month, but once they get a month off to prepare, theyre gonna be a solid bowl bet. but i agree with the rest of the big 10: not expecting too much if anything out of them.
5) im really surprised you didnt at least cash the wisconsin bet. ohio state cleared the way for wisky to get the rose bowl berth. badgers got the help they needed.... and then came up lame. that was a more puzzling result than the osu game. i know you had more on michigan, but you should have at least made some back on wisky. what a lame effort there.
i suspect i will lose my a$$ on cal as well. i liked o st. today, and i really like cal in the rose bowl. it si like a gift - much like last year. i hope i am not trusting cal too much.
One cannot claim that their handicapping was solid when their team loses by 16 points and never leads after the mid second quarter.Everybody loses games like this,but I fear you will not be handicapping too long unless you realize that moneymanagement works for everyone.Say what you will,lack of this discipline hurt you unnecessarily today.If you'd have played all your games for the same amount,you'd have been a lot better off.I somehow doubt you'll listen though,I've seen this movie before.
Scott: I totally agree with one thing you said.....the Big 10 sucks. I tried to tell everyone this week that I was betting LARGE on the Buckeyes not because I had this false idea that were were a good team that just hasnt played well all year, but I was betting that Michigan (a vastly overrated team) couldnt come into Ohio State and win a HUGE game on the road. Although, I believe I may have been incorrect because Michigan didnt lose the game, Ohio State beat them (which surprised me) No way could anyone justify that Michigan should be favored by more than a field goal in this game. I pointed out how Michigan struggled in every road game they played, even against the patsies.
Bottom line, you are right, Cal is a sweet team and I will be curious to see a line for this game.....I feel it is going to be a field goal. I will take CAL to the bank!!
Good luck to ya
Bottom line, you are right, Cal is a sweet team and I will be curious to see a line for this game.....I feel it is going to be a field goal. I will take CAL to the bank!!
Good luck to ya
Thanks Tease, you guided me to see the light, Buckeyes played their asses off. We did well yesterday.
THanks for the nice words gman2. I think you might be right with Purdue. With Orton back they may be dangerous and they played Georgia tough in last years bowl game. As for Ginn, imagine if he was on this USC team. How would you like to try and stop Ginn and Bush? WOW! One can only imagine. Wish he was a Trojan! OSU got a great one. Or imagine this. What if the NCAA let Williams back, USC be unstoppable. Then what if if Williams, Bush, AND Ginn were all on the same team? IT was very close to happening. :scared
edludes
I don't bet BIG every weekend. In fact, this was my first bet over 1k this whole year because I frankly have not seen any "GREAT" bets to warrant that. Last year I posted something like 6 or 8 of my BIG plays and I won 5 or 6 of them. I USUALLY WIN MY BIG PLAYS but I know I can't win every big play. This will be 3 straight years I profited so this works for me. If USC wins the NC this year and I don't hedge, I will have won around 30k in sports betting! I believe in betting "few" games and betting big. So I just sit back and wait for my calling. Michigan came calling and LOST! Right now CAL is on my radar against Michigan. Maybe I will get a calling for next weeks games.
Yes my handicapping was solid. For starters, all the data I provided was fact. So you can't really dispute that. But the foundation was Michigan being more talented than OSU at all position except LB and special teams AND Ginn. gman2 disagreed with me and he was proven correct. Michigans first 2 drives looked great and was exactly what I expected. OSU DB's could not cover the UM WR's and the offense looked good. And the OSU TD was from a BIG PLAY something UM has given up all year and which I stated. After that (and my post) everything went to $hit but I was not able to watch the 2h closely and parts of the 2nd q. Basically, if Michigan was more talented across the board, I would have won by bet with ease. Unfortunately, OSU is on par or maybe even more talented. Can't win them all. Doesn't mean my handicapping wasn't solid.
That is why over 50% of my HUGE bets are on USC. A team I know inside and out and a team I know what I am getting. I have only lost 1 HUGE bet out of maybe 6 on USC and that was 3 years ago.
I was disappointed with the UM defense, clearly not that great of a defense. But I knew that coming in because they gave up 900yards in their last 2 games but against spread offenses. OSU QB played his game of the year and you can't really cap that. He made some amazing/key throws. Take those away and take away some momentum from OSU and maybe UM makes the game close. WHo knows but hats off to the OSU QB. He stepped up. Ginn played outstanding but you expected great play from him. Just was not UM day and they were somewhat overrated. But one thing is for sure. As The Big Tease stated, UM didn't lose the game, OSU won the game.
All in all, take a look at my handicapping posts and majority of what I said was true EXCEPT for UM being more talented. Most of everything I said was backed up on seasonal production. MY opinion of UM being more talented was clearly wrong. Also did not pay enough attention to the Big 10 being crappy. A lesson I learned. Watch out for betting HUGE on a rivalry game in a bad conference. Watch out for coaches that dedicate a season to one specific game (tressel). I did not put enough emphasis into that and some posters warned me.
IF USC opens at -10 or less I will most likely be betting HUGE on them against ND.
edludes
I don't bet BIG every weekend. In fact, this was my first bet over 1k this whole year because I frankly have not seen any "GREAT" bets to warrant that. Last year I posted something like 6 or 8 of my BIG plays and I won 5 or 6 of them. I USUALLY WIN MY BIG PLAYS but I know I can't win every big play. This will be 3 straight years I profited so this works for me. If USC wins the NC this year and I don't hedge, I will have won around 30k in sports betting! I believe in betting "few" games and betting big. So I just sit back and wait for my calling. Michigan came calling and LOST! Right now CAL is on my radar against Michigan. Maybe I will get a calling for next weeks games.
Yes my handicapping was solid. For starters, all the data I provided was fact. So you can't really dispute that. But the foundation was Michigan being more talented than OSU at all position except LB and special teams AND Ginn. gman2 disagreed with me and he was proven correct. Michigans first 2 drives looked great and was exactly what I expected. OSU DB's could not cover the UM WR's and the offense looked good. And the OSU TD was from a BIG PLAY something UM has given up all year and which I stated. After that (and my post) everything went to $hit but I was not able to watch the 2h closely and parts of the 2nd q. Basically, if Michigan was more talented across the board, I would have won by bet with ease. Unfortunately, OSU is on par or maybe even more talented. Can't win them all. Doesn't mean my handicapping wasn't solid.
That is why over 50% of my HUGE bets are on USC. A team I know inside and out and a team I know what I am getting. I have only lost 1 HUGE bet out of maybe 6 on USC and that was 3 years ago.
I was disappointed with the UM defense, clearly not that great of a defense. But I knew that coming in because they gave up 900yards in their last 2 games but against spread offenses. OSU QB played his game of the year and you can't really cap that. He made some amazing/key throws. Take those away and take away some momentum from OSU and maybe UM makes the game close. WHo knows but hats off to the OSU QB. He stepped up. Ginn played outstanding but you expected great play from him. Just was not UM day and they were somewhat overrated. But one thing is for sure. As The Big Tease stated, UM didn't lose the game, OSU won the game.
All in all, take a look at my handicapping posts and majority of what I said was true EXCEPT for UM being more talented. Most of everything I said was backed up on seasonal production. MY opinion of UM being more talented was clearly wrong. Also did not pay enough attention to the Big 10 being crappy. A lesson I learned. Watch out for betting HUGE on a rivalry game in a bad conference. Watch out for coaches that dedicate a season to one specific game (tressel). I did not put enough emphasis into that and some posters warned me.
IF USC opens at -10 or less I will most likely be betting HUGE on them against ND.
Be careful betting against the Big 10 in the bowl games. It has been an off year, but the teams that they'll be playing against will be watching the same film and will have a hard time getting up for the contest. They play in the scrum as well as anyone and it's a different look than other conferences are used to
Second, this is the first year that Tressel beat Michigan. They've won on the scoreboard 3 out of the 4, but not on the field (sidenote to kosar - it's just my opinion - nothing more - please don't make fun of me). THAT was my main reason for taking Michigan. I thought that Tressell would try to ugly up the game like he did for the previous 3 years, but it didn't happen. Hats off to Tressel and the Bucks.
Third, The ND-USC games been posted at -17 to -20 all year. What makes you think it will be less than 10?
Second, this is the first year that Tressel beat Michigan. They've won on the scoreboard 3 out of the 4, but not on the field (sidenote to kosar - it's just my opinion - nothing more - please don't make fun of me). THAT was my main reason for taking Michigan. I thought that Tressell would try to ugly up the game like he did for the previous 3 years, but it didn't happen. Hats off to Tressel and the Bucks.
Third, The ND-USC games been posted at -17 to -20 all year. What makes you think it will be less than 10?
BobbyBlueChip
Looks like USC is -22. I did not see any lines posted on USC vs ND so I was "praying" for USC -10.
Looks like USC is -22. I did not see any lines posted on USC vs ND so I was "praying" for USC -10.
Scott, a word of advice going forward, never play UM as a road fav. They have laid some serious eggs over the years at ND, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Michigan State and now Ohio State. You are a stand up guy for coming back and posting in the thread. Good luck this week.
BobbyBlueChip said:
Chips,
What are you talking about? 3 years ago they went into Michigan and dominated the first half, taking a big lead, and then hung on to win. OSU was a big underdog with inferior talent. I think Tressell had something to do with that.
2 years ago they held a very good Michigan offense to 9 points. It might not have been pretty, but it was Tressell-ball, just like all 14 of their wins that year, except for maybe the NC game.
Yes, it's fair to say that it's Tressell 3, Michigan 1.
