ncaa football: december bowl games .........

[gman2]

loophole:

football is always a game of "ifs". i know where youre coming from, but gradkowski is just too tough a player not to start and finish this one. the kid who is backing him up (council) is capable of making plays. good athlete, but inexperienced. so the offense would probably be vanilla. but thats worst case. gradkowski should go thr distance w/out a problem

today's articles:

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=SPORTS

 

[halfbuck34]

gman,
thanks for validating my post on the uconn defense from my thread...they let Rutgers put up 35(?) pts in the last game.
what are your thoughts on the total, i'm really liking the over.
Uconn will put pts on the board, with the Rockets scoring 2-3 TD's more!

 

[gman2]

halfbuck:

im a little hesitant on the over because im not sure how wide-open toledo's offense is going to be out of the gate. they might try to establish run to avoid having gradkowski throw it a ton early.

in the mac championship game, toledo took the opening kickoff and toledo went 74 yards in 9 plays for a touchdown.

the first 8 plays were run.
the 9th was the playaction pass to odom for the TD.

amstutz might try to copy that script and establish the run early.

that being said, toledo is a balanced team by nature and they are a quick-strike offense, so even if gradkowski doesnt throw 35-38 times today, it could still go over the total.

as you can tell, i can see the total going both ways. uconn's defense isnt as good as the numbers indicate, and both teams can score. but i cant pull the trigger on such a high over......but i can see it going over, lol.

 

[halfbuck34]

thanks gman, appreciate the feedback.
Go Rockets!

 

[Henri]

I liked Uconn for the game all week. After reading your info about Toledo often starting slow and pouring it on second half I decided to play uconn as a 1st half play only. Thank you for your insight and the Fresno Pick. You and a few others on the forum are very knowledgable and take a professional approach at making money via sports gambling. I'll be rooting for toledo in the second half for you. field goal already in the 1st 4 minutes???

 

[gman2]

thanks henri. appreciate posts like you just made. it makes the time invested worth it. not trying to sound overly altruistic, but really like helping out in some way when guys win.

notre dame irish (+4.5) and moneyline
i hate notre dame more than most things in this world. unfortunately, derek andersen is one of those that i hate more. the kid is a damn interception machine and theres no way i rush to lay points with him here. theyre the epitome of mediocrity in the pac10: definitely better than the scrub teams, but got smashed by any team thats halfway decent. theres nothing great that i can say about notre dame other than they shouldnt be an underdog to oregon state on a neutral field. andersen will find a way to fu.ck it up. this one also loosely classifies as a revenger as well, as notre dame was embarrassed by this school in front of the nation a couple years ago. trust me, im not capping that angle as part of any reason why i like the irish. but still think theres a little element of pride involved.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Agree on ND. Worse, I have a bad feeling that program is about to take an upswing.

 

[gjn23]

love the irish as a program.....love the beavers to roll them tomorrow

no wr and no d-line for nd....plus osu is usually money in bowl game.....and yes i do agree that anderson sucks....think the beaers roll.

 

[west coast guru]

g-man nice call on fresno state made a lot of cash

 

[xusnhtus]

very nice call on Fresno st.
I thought u would take Miami,Ohio 1st.

 

[gman2]

xusnhtus:

miami is certainly the better team but i cant trust em tonight after all the stuff that has taken place off the field with them in the last few weeks. with their head coach leaving for indiana and larkin's status (or at least his effectiveness) being up in the air after going through what he did in early december (stabbing), there are just too many question marks surrounding this team. better team (miami) might not win this one.


pretty good michael larkin article that sheds some light on the stabbing:

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041228/SPT01/412280372/1063/SPT

another article about both coaches:

http://www.cincypost.com/2004/12/28/mufoot12-28-2004.html

 

[gman2]

miami redhawks over 50 (-105)

found a favorable number to work with, so taking a shot on the over. not a big play by any stretch, but i think its the way to go here. isu's defense should be a good test for miami's passing game, but i think miami's receivers will present a tough challenge to their secondary (even if larkin isnt 100% or doesnt go). miami's defense hasnt played particularly well down the stretch, allowing charlie frye to pass for 436 yards in the season finale with a lot at stake and then followed that up by allowing toledo to run up 437 yards of offense in the mac championship game. also hoping hoeppner opens it up a little in his final game as miami head coach. im not sure he wants to be remembered by a 17-13 independence bowl or anything like that. im not sure who wins this game, but im pretty confident the score approaches 60.

some more miami stuff:

(betts and hoeppner teleconference):

http://muredhawks.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/121604aab.html

 

[xusnhtus]

tks for insight G had already played small parlay on Miami with ND & UTEP. but will leave it at that. time to hit total now!
gL tonite keeps fingers crossed for a MAC win, starting to hear people say MAC is not worthy.

 

[bombercoops]

Was leaning this way also gman. I think I'm going to have a little shot at it myself. Gl tonight!

 

[gman2]

ryne robinson (-0.5 catches) (-150) over todd blythe

this prop is a little juiced at -150, but it should have no problem cashing. with the status and/or effectiveness of micheal larkin up in the air, betts is going to look to his leading receiver even more. robinson has a knack for stepping up in big games and making big plays. i know blythe is the big play receiver for isu (at 22 yds a catch) but hes only got 36 grabs on the year. just think the circumstances are set up for robinson to have a 7 or 8 catch game.

 

[fatback]

Gman, if you don't mind, I wanted to get your take on the N Illinois game since you know these MAC teams well. I'm confused as to why this game is pickem when the stats show N Ill as so much more dominant. N Ill averages 90 yds more passing/game and almost 80 yds more rushing/game. Add to that they average 35 pts scoring while giving up 25 pts/ game compared to Troy scoring 24 and giving up 15. To me this seems like the easiest bowl game but why is it only a pickem? Any help would be appreciated because I would like to unload on this game. Troy has had some good wins but has also lost to some terrible teams


Thanks and good luck

 

[vyrus858]

Great call on the Ryne Robinson stat...you said 7 or 8 and it was 7...your balls lol

 

[gman2]

fatback:

no problem. ill get back to you later tonight with more on that game. i will tell you, however, that i completely agree with what you said. the line only being pick is a little scary. nonetheless, im going to trust my capping because ive won far more than ive lost with these mac games recently and northern illinois should control the line of scrimmage.

 

[fatback]

Thanks

 

[bombercoops]

Thought the MAC teams may have won the last two respective bowl games (toledo & miami), but maybe we can have a little more success with Nth Ill. They have the ability to run over troy st. IMO and hopefully they are still pissed by not making it to the MAC champ game and come out fired up and ready to play. Looking forward to your write up gman.