ncaa football: december bowl games .........

[gman2]

ohio state buckeyes

went back and forth and have decided to take a shot on ohio state. three main reasons why the bucks get my money:

* imo, at the beginning of the season, zwick was set up to fail. the offense was super conservative, the line was inexperienced, and ginn was inexplicably standing on the sidelines. theres no reason this kid shouldnt succeed now that osu has two explosive weapons on the outside with ginn and holmes. will ohio state give zwick the same freedom and wide-open playcalling they afforded troy smith? i cant say for sure. but theyd be stupid not to. zwick is no stiff. the kid came into the program with lots of hype for a reason. its up to him to make some plays now.

* fundamentally, its tough to lay points with a team (oklahoma state) that allows almost 400 yards of total offense a game. buckeyes should be able to score on this poke defense. okie state allows almost 60 yards more offense per game than ohio state.

* an underdog with solid special teams is always worth a look. an underdog with exceptional special teams is REALLY worth a look. nugent is damn near automatic and ginn....well, no need to go there. this game could turn on special teams.

tressel has proven time and again he can coach through adversity and get his players prepared. ohio state is riding some momentum now, and although im pretty much an anti-ohio state guy, its tough to ignore their last two bowl efforts in the dog role (vs kansas state last year and miami the year before)

 

[fla]

Yep, starting to think that way on OSU as well. Good luck.

This OSU whould be from Ohio. lol. :clap:

 

[gardenweasel]

took `em...liked `em big originally....but,those running backs are way bad.....and the qb is unproven....



still,i`ll take the 4......hopefully they can slow down morency.....

g.l.

 

[spang]

Agree that its the Bucks or nothing here, Ginn and Nugent are enough of a reason to support Ohio State tonight.

 

[gman2]

boston college eagles

two good bowl teams going at it. bc and carolina have both won 5 straight bowl games (although carolina had taken a bowl lengthy sabbatical). i know its a pseudo- home game for carolina, but unless 40,000 tar heel fans are going to be on the field playing defense, i dont think its going to matter a whole lot to boston college. eagles are far more physical and just a far better team on both lines of scrimmage; the carolina defense is absolutely porous. carolina has the ability to score and the athleticism of durant will test the eagles defense but im making an almost obligatory play on o'brien and the eagles. boston college should make a statement against their new acc foe. hawaii got away with having the nations worst defense because chang and the boys are just unstoppable on the island. carolinas 9th-worst division 1 defense should get shredded.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Gman, not that it necessarily is meaningful (se other post), that is a BC team that lost to Syracuse - no got ROUTED by Syracuse at HOME, and wouldnt be in a bowl if they didnt play in a pathetic league., and a Carolina team that beat Miami, Wake (who beat BC). routed the same Ga Tech team that just routed Cuse, played VTech within 3 points.

All that said how is BC "obligatory?"

 

[gman2]

sun:

points well taken. the obligatory was in reference to how ive backed bc in bowls the last few years and have had good success. weird thing is that i think i bet AGAINST boston college three times this year. never once bet ON them. but im more than willing to back em on thursday. obrien seems to be like tressel -- very conservative coach whose team has some inexplicable losses or very poor showing during the regular season, but then put forth great efforts in december. btw- you can talk about losing to syracuse or whatever. but bc DID beat ball state. gl tomorrow.

 

[lenniethelock]

with peterson back this will be a very diferent team that lost to the cuse.lets just hope he dosent pull a graddowski on us.the game that sticks in my mind is how they man handled wvu,and wvu kinda reminds me of this tar heel team.think we got the right side. gl

 

[Bill]

Gotta follow G. You have been on so far.

GL

 

[gman2]

northern illinois huskies

niu has waited a long time for this one, and now they finally get their chance to make a name for the program. huskies havent been bowling in 21 years, although they had pretty strong resumes the last two seasons (8-4 in 2002 and 10-2 last year) but were snubbed both times.

in a nutshell, this one comes down to northern's offense against troy's defense. both units are outstanding (niu #13 in total offense, troy #17 in total defense). but the huskies have so much more firepower its not funny. a great defense can only get you so far. if your offense is pedestrian (and troy's is -- averaging just 283 yards a game), it puts a lot of pressure on the D. troy's defense is damn good, but i cant see it holding up for 60:00 against a very physical and powerful northern offense, especially the running game.

troy is very proficient in the turnover department (leading the nation in INTS). haldi has protected the ball well for northern this year (just 4 INTs vs. 15 TDs) so thats encouraging for niu.

ostensibly, troy matched missouri and lsu blow for blow earlier this year. but in a 24-20 win, lsu outgained troy 386 to 150 in total offense, and 22 to 9 in first downs. missouri numbers were 336-293 (in favor of mizzou) and 21-14. trojans are GREAT at taking the ball away and forcing turnovers. that is how they stay in games. but if niu just takes care of the football, i do not see troy generating anywhere near enough offense to win.

if the vegas total is relatively accurate, this will be a low scoring game. both kickers are very good, so no edge there to either team. but if this game is swung on special teams, it could very well be in the direction of northern illinois. the huskies have one of the premier return men in the nation (dan sheldon). he's led the nation in punt return yardage in the past, and this year he is averaging 17 yards a punt return and taken one to the house.

its no secret that this one is hardly a marquee matchup, given its location and time slot. but northern illinois has waited quite awhile to get their chance in a bowl game. they started the season 1-2 (losing at maryland and at iowa state) but finished the season winning 7 of 8 (the only loss coming to toledo in a game in which garrett wolfe didnt play).

huskies are definitely the most physical of the mac bowl teams this year, and their offense is predicated on wolfe and the running game setting the tone. while bowling green, toledo, and miami spread it out, niu is pretty much lines up and drives you off the ball. they do, however, have guys on the outside that are capable of making big plays through the air.

as far as the line goes, i cant make any sense of the line swing from pick to troy now -1.5 or -2. im sure many consider it to be a sharp move and will thus back the trojans here.

im trusting my stuff.

ive had strong mac plays throughout the last month where the line has been puzzling (toledo vs. bg, toledo vs. miami, bowling green vs. memphis) and ive got no reason to get cold feet just because of a puzzling line move. only mac play ive lost in 4 weeks has been toledo in the motor city bowl (which was probably a little forced given the gradkowski situation)

bottom line: if northern illinois is good enough and hungry enough, theyll win. if theyre not, then ill give all the credit in the world to troy state for shutting down an niu team that had a lot more firepower and balance. line move means little to me, because mac lines have been strange all season (and frequently wrong).

weather looks like its gonna be shitty/rainy. that shouldnt bother than niu ground game. hell, they rang up 59 points and 652 yards of total offense in a downpour of rain at western michigan earlier this season. i know wmu defense was lame, but watching that game, the rain didnt remotely bother niu. these mac teams play in bullshit weather all season, so its really nothing new.

the last month or so of mac football has been great to me. hoping niu can put the icing on the cake. show me something huskies. youve waited a long time for this.

 

[straightbutta]

Gman, when it comes to the MAC, your the man so I hope you don't mind if I tag along. GL

 

[gman2]

texas rech raiders

actually thought about buying this one back, but decided to stick with it. holiday bowl has been a great bowl for underdogs in recent years. this bowl hasnt had a team win by 10+ points in seven years. my main concern is how texas tech's defense will hold up against a west coast team thats actually physical and runs the ball well. ultimately, though, im confident enough in cumbie to match rodgers score for score. leach has really had tech prepared for their last two bowls (winning 38-14 last year and and 55-15 the yr before that). even if cal DOES come to play and isnt moping, they will still have a tough time covering this number. hoping for some more holiday bowl dog magic.

northern illinois huskies

niu has waited a long time for this one, and now they finally get their chance to make a name for the program. huskies havent been bowling in 21 years, although they had pretty strong resumes the last two seasons (8-4 in 2002 and 10-2 last year) but were snubbed both times.

in a nutshell, this one comes down to northern's offense against troy's defense. both units are outstanding (niu #13 in total offense, troy #17 in total defense). but the huskies have so much more firepower its not funny. a great defense can only get you so far. if your offense is pedestrian (and troy's is -- averaging just 283 yards a game), it puts a lot of pressure on the D. troy's defense is damn good, but i cant see it holding up for 60:00 against a very physical and powerful northern offense, especially the running game.

troy is very proficient in the turnover department (leading the nation in INTS). haldi has protected the ball well for northern this year (just 4 INTs vs. 15 TDs) so thats encouraging for niu.

ostensibly, troy matched missouri and lsu blow for blow earlier this year. but in a 24-20 win, lsu outgained troy 386 to 150 in total offense, and 22 to 9 in first downs. missouri numbers were 336-293 (in favor of mizzou) and 21-14. trojans are GREAT at taking the ball away and forcing turnovers. that is how they stay in games. but if niu just takes care of the football, i do not see troy generating anywhere near enough offense to win.

if the vegas total is relatively accurate, this will be a low scoring game. both kickers are very good, so no edge there to either team. but if this game is swung on special teams, it could very well be in the direction of northern illinois. the huskies have one of the premier return men in the nation (dan sheldon). he's led the nation in punt return yardage in the past, and this year he is averaging 17 yards a punt return and taken one to the house.

its no secret that this one is hardly a marquee matchup, given its location and time slot. but northern illinois has waited quite awhile to get their chance in a bowl game. they started the season 1-2 (losing at maryland and at iowa state) but finished the season winning 7 of 8 (the only loss coming to toledo in a game in which garrett wolfe didnt play).

huskies are definitely the most physical of the mac bowl teams this year, and their offense is predicated on wolfe and the running game setting the tone. while bowling green, toledo, and miami spread it out, niu is pretty much lines up and drives you off the ball. they do, however, have guys on the outside that are capable of making big plays through the air.

as far as the line goes, i cant make any sense of the line swing from pick to troy now -1.5 or -2. im sure many consider it to be a sharp move and will thus back the trojans here.

im trusting my stuff.

ive had strong mac plays throughout the last month where the line has been puzzling (toledo vs. bg, toledo vs. miami, bowling green vs. memphis) and ive got no reason to get cold feet just because of a puzzling line move. only mac play ive lost in 4 weeks has been toledo in the motor city bowl (which was probably a little forced given the gradkowski situation)

bottom line: if northern illinois is good enough and hungry enough, theyll win. if theyre not, then ill give all the credit in the world to troy state for shutting down an niu team that had a lot more firepower and balance. line move means little to me, because mac lines have been strange all season (and frequently wrong).

weather looks like its gonna be shitty/rainy. that shouldnt bother than niu ground game. hell, they rang up 59 points and 652 yards of total offense in a downpour of rain at western michigan earlier this season. i know wmu defense was lame, but watching that game, the rain didnt remotely bother niu. these mac teams play in bullshit weather all season, so its really nothing new.

the last month or so of mac football has been great to me. hoping niu can put the icing on the cake. show me something huskies. youve waited a long time for this.

boston college eagles

two good bowl teams going at it. bc and carolina have both won 5 straight bowl games (although carolina had taken a bowl lengthy sabbatical). i know its a pseudo- home game for carolina, but unless 40,000 tar heel fans are going to be on the field playing defense, i dont think its going to matter a whole lot to boston college. eagles are far more physical and just a far better team on both lines of scrimmage; the carolina defense is absolutely porous. carolina has the ability to score and the athleticism of durant will test the eagles defense but im making an almost obligatory play on o'brien and the eagles. boston college should make a statement against their new acc foe. hawaii got away with having the nations worst defense because chang and the boys are just unstoppable on the island. carolinas 9th-worst division 1 defense should get shredded.

 

[Blackman]

Good luck today buddy -- on the Eagles and the Huskies as well. Thanks for the write ups.

 

[gman2]

garrett wolfe (-48.5) rushing yards over dewitt betterson

i know the troy state run defense is stout, but wolfe is a stud and im convinced that northerns offensive line will be able to open up holes for him tonight. he's rushed for a mind-boggling 605 yards his last two games and has been held below 142 yards just once in since getting the full-time starting reps. i know spotting someone almost 50 yards looks insane, but wolfe is capable of a 200 yd game, and assuming i capped the game right, troy will be playing from behind and passing a little more while northern will be griding out a win in the 4th quarter with the running game.

 

[Bill]

G, how does the Troy offense match up against the NIU Defense? Is this where the game may swing if you have an excellent offense of NIU against and excellent Troy D.

Thanks for sharingy our knowledge.

Bill

 

[gman2]

bill:

northerns defense is certainly their weak area. its a middle of the road mac defense. its not terrible, but its not going to elicit memories of the '85 bears for illinois residents. that said, troy's offense is really pedestrian, so niu shouldnt have to worry about getting torched for a ton of big plays. also like that fact that niu has a senior quarterback going against a freshman quarterback for the trojans. both teams are getting their first taste of a bowl, but huskies have played in a lot more big games, especially haldi. if troy is gonna win, their offense is going to have to come out with some big plays to take some pressure off their defense. hope that helps. enjoy the game

 

[Bill]

Thank you. It solidifies the play.

Bill

 

[tulah]

I'm with you on the Huskies but I'll be playing the ML as well

IMO huskies should be favored here ...not Troy


BTW
Toledo really stuck it to me ....I'm still bitter about that 1

 

[Rcxslam]

hey Gman2...appreciate your write-ups...keep up the good work, was leaning towards NIU myslef, now you've just persuaded me...one question though...do you know if West is playing? and if so, how healthy you think he is?

 

[lineguy]

Gman like your stuff man.

Love the VIEWS and REPLYS your getting brother

Gman I have a Question for you on the Northern Illinois/Troy State game.

Is Northern Illinois a good away team and if so are they capable of forcing turnovers against a very conservative Troy State offense.

Also Gman does this line movement of Northern Illinois -2 to +3 concern you at all in this game?

THANKS G<MAN