AR182 said:
kosar,
we don't know that.
you can think it, but nobody knows for sure how an invasion against iran would work.......from what i have heard & read there are many iranians who are fed up with the mullahs...maybe an invasion would have energized those people to take arms....we don't know.
Al,
We've been waiting for the 'people' to overthrow the leaders of Iran, Libya, Cuba etc....since the beginning of time. It just doesn't happen. We also expected the people to do the trick in 1991 in Iraq. In 1991, we hung thousands of Shiites who got slaughtered out to dry by pumping them up and then leaving. People tend to remember that.
Iran has 3x the population as Iraq and something like 4 or 5x the land. They have, at the least, a competent military. The population there hates us more than just about any country, as their countrys state religion is Islamic fundamentalism and we are the 'infidels.'
We cannot control a very small country right now with 160,000 troops fighting against a rag tag bunch of insurgents.
The more recent things i've read about the Iranian youth is that they have become indifferent. Yes, they long for an end of the mullahs but have resigned themselves to what it is because their concerns are marginalized. Invasion or not, there will not be an uprising there. And it's damn sure not something we should count on in any sort of war plans against them.
An invasion/occupation along the lines of our invasion of Iraq would fail miserably.
Surgical strikes and/or bombing is maybe one possible option. The problem is that we have no idea exactly where their large reactors are. Also, they are underground.
Also, there are some airspace/refueling issues due to the range of our jets and where they would be coming from.
Also, you can count on even more hell breaking loose in Iraq 2 seconds after the first strike. At the least, they would bomb the shit out of Iraq and possibly send their military over there to join the fun.
We would have to handle this with no help from anybody, because Bush had the 'who cares what the world thinks' attitude in 2003.
In fact, Russia would certainly help Iran behind the scenes.
Our military is stretched to it's limit as it is right now. Really, beyond it's limits with them extending ETS', extending tours over there, using massive amounts of reservists, etc. A full-blown invasion of Iran would be insane at this time.