If an average game card is 50 games....
do you have the discipline to only wager 3 games and call it a day?
do you have the discipline to only wager 3 games and call it a day?
college football handicappers...
- Thread starter buddy
- Start date
Generally no, but I usually like more than three games to begin with. It was easier to just bet a few games when I was in college. Now that I'm out, college football Saturdays are like a temporary escape from the real world, and I tend to get a little more stupid.
I usually try and narrow it to 10 games-sometimes I will bet early morning games and gaames that start before 6:00 pm EST and then depending how I do on those games I will bet games that start after 6:00 pm EST
I'm assuming (for the most part) a battle scarred, veteran handicapper can probably go 3-0 on a 50 game card.
If you approach the card with only 3 games in mind, it "seems" to be fairly easy to do.
If you approach the card, glancing at every matchup trying to determine the probable side for each game, the "3 game focus" gets lost in the onslaught.
If you had to bet only 3 games of a 50 game card, what handicapping criteria would you use to seperate those three from the others?
If you approach the card with only 3 games in mind, it "seems" to be fairly easy to do.
If you approach the card, glancing at every matchup trying to determine the probable side for each game, the "3 game focus" gets lost in the onslaught.
If you had to bet only 3 games of a 50 game card, what handicapping criteria would you use to seperate those three from the others?
Well then....
it might be interesting to know of the five games selected for the Madjacks college football contest, where was the greatest percentage of losses:
Pick 1
Pick 2
Pick 3
Pick 4
Pick 5
worth researching?
You need to think about winning % to win money--we know it takes around 57% to win money including ppaying the vig.
If you bet 3 games you need to win 2=67%--5 games you need to win 3=60%-7 games you need ot win 4=57%--10 games, win 60=60 %--I usually stay with 5 7 or 10 games
If you bet 3 games you need to win 2=67%--5 games you need to win 3=60%-7 games you need ot win 4=57%--10 games, win 60=60 %--I usually stay with 5 7 or 10 games
I am pretty sure I can win money with a W % of 50%....51%
........Grind it out and a nice bankroll going into College hoops...
more later
bear
........Grind it out and a nice bankroll going into College hoops...
more later
bear
...unless you're betting dogs on the ML, you would need to hit a win % of 52.4% to break even with the standard 10% juice.... if you're offshore and paying reduced vig, then the break-even percentage would be lower than 52.4%, but you might as well figure that if you can't hit at 55% or better, you will either lose money or barely break even.... just my 2 cents. 
...and to answer buddy's original question. I try to limit myself to 10 games or less on Saturday...usually I should only bet my top 5 games and leave the rest alone.
...and to answer buddy's original question. I try to limit myself to 10 games or less on Saturday...usually I should only bet my top 5 games and leave the rest alone.
I treat handicapping just like a job. I spend about 6-8 hrs. per day researching all the weeks college and pro footbal games. I scour the internet and subscribe to several publications in order to avail myself of all pertinent information.
On Thurs, I narrow it down to around 10 games that fit my scheme and seem betable. I recheck my lines and on Friday I select 3 games that are "locks" and bet 5 dimes on each game.
I only need to win 2 out of my 3 "locks" to show a profit of $4500. for the week. Some weeks I win all 3. I have never lost all 3.
My season starts in Sept. and runs until Jan. The lines are too tight during the pro playoffs leading up to the Super Bowl, so I have few, if any, bets after New Years.
I make around $100,000 per year with this method. I travel and play golf most of the rest of the year.....
......and if you believe any of this drivel you are living in a fantasy world, just like me!! :mj07:
On Thurs, I narrow it down to around 10 games that fit my scheme and seem betable. I recheck my lines and on Friday I select 3 games that are "locks" and bet 5 dimes on each game.
I only need to win 2 out of my 3 "locks" to show a profit of $4500. for the week. Some weeks I win all 3. I have never lost all 3.
My season starts in Sept. and runs until Jan. The lines are too tight during the pro playoffs leading up to the Super Bowl, so I have few, if any, bets after New Years.
I make around $100,000 per year with this method. I travel and play golf most of the rest of the year.....
......and if you believe any of this drivel you are living in a fantasy world, just like me!! :mj07:
I can limit it to 3 games per time session if I want without much trouble, but who only wants to bet 3 a day.
How about 3 at 1100, 3 at 1200, 3 at 1300, etc.
How about 3 at 1100, 3 at 1200, 3 at 1300, etc.
I am usually between 15-25 plays on a Saturday. This system is not for most, however I used to narrow down my selections, and found I was giving away too many winners. This seems to be especially helpful come late into the season, bowl season, and non conference schedule. Obviously you need a substantial bankroll, but I have been at this over 25 years. Crap Im gettin old! LOL.
Fwiw, I used to do this also hawkeye. But I was to undisciplined, and would usually give back winnings later in the day. Why, I'm not sure, but overall I did. So now I make all my picks on Friday night, maybe tweak one or two on Saturday, and in they all go for the day.
Hope this helps you Buddy........
Franky
hawkeye said:
Fwiw, I used to do this also hawkeye. But I was to undisciplined, and would usually give back winnings later in the day. Why, I'm not sure, but overall I did. So now I make all my picks on Friday night, maybe tweak one or two on Saturday, and in they all go for the day.
Hope this helps you Buddy........
Franky
Recently; like the last 4 years, there seems to be a Big Ten early game that is a freebie to wet your thirst for the day.
Not freebie but the line holds and with the Big Ten People on this site usually cashes in.
I look at the 2 or 3 early starts on sat. and usually can find the right side of one by reading around etc.
If i had the patience to stop there... :mj14:
Not freebie but the line holds and with the Big Ten People on this site usually cashes in.
I look at the 2 or 3 early starts on sat. and usually can find the right side of one by reading around etc.
If i had the patience to stop there... :mj14:
No.........but I woildn't call it lack of discipline. Usually too many nice games to pick. And, too much action to pass up, foots season is short and only on Saturdays, one has to eat while it is on the table...........alot of games on the tube , even late games, so I usually "enjoy" wagering on & watching the late game, even if it turms out to be only for "lunch" or "Pizza money".
Hell.....i go into a season thinking that I will pick a lot better than 50%..........BUT.....I reiterate that I can turn a profit at 50 to 51%....and thats with a 10% vig........(if I'm careful and don't have a negative streak of consecitive losses that kills my bankroll before I can get back to 50%) If that happens (and it has) Then I quit till hoops.....
Taoist.........I think you are referring to a straight unit bet each time without raising or lowering $ based on win%
Now paying the reduced vig only enhances my prospects for a great season! Hope to hit maybe 54/55% ........If yes ........good season... if 50% pretty much a push ......probably a small profit.
My highest bet will be 2.5 units (rarely) and lowest is .6 units (rarely)........Most bets 1unit 1.2 units 1.4units.........9/10 unit, 8/10unit etc.
Good topic Buddy.......We'll be talking
bear
Taoist.........I think you are referring to a straight unit bet each time without raising or lowering $ based on win%
Now paying the reduced vig only enhances my prospects for a great season! Hope to hit maybe 54/55% ........If yes ........good season... if 50% pretty much a push ......probably a small profit.
My highest bet will be 2.5 units (rarely) and lowest is .6 units (rarely)........Most bets 1unit 1.2 units 1.4units.........9/10 unit, 8/10unit etc.
Good topic Buddy.......We'll be talking
bear
i usually bet 4 games every sat druing coll foots season. i play $100/600 3 team parlay and alos $550 on the strongest play of the day.
