Week 5 Plays and Predicted Scores

Agent 0659

Agent 0659

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San Diego at Denver:

Den -1
42

A home loss to Kansas City? Losing at New England was one thing, but San Diego is now in big trouble at 1-3 and heading to Denver as small road dogs. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS on the season and played well last week against Indy.

Oddsmakers currently have the Broncos listed as 1-point favorites versus the Chargers, while the game's total is sitting at 42.

The Chargers lost to Kansas City as 12.5-point favorite in Week 4. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (38.5).

Philip Rivers completed 21-of-42 passes for 211 yards with two interceptions, while LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 132 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries.

The Broncos lost to Indianapolis 38-20 as a 10-point underdog in Week 4. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (46.5).

Jay Cutler completed 13-of-21 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Denver and Travis Henry rushed for 131 yards on 26 carries.

Current streak:
San Diego has lost 3 straight games.
Denver has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
San Diego: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
Denver: 2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS

San Diego most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the division are 6-4

Denver most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games on the road
San Diego is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Diego's last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego's last 10 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego
Denver is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home

INJURIES
SAN DIEGO
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Eric Parker WR Out Week 4 (toe)
Matt Wilhelm LB Out Week 4 (calf)
Luis Castillo DE Probable Week 4 (foot)
Vincent Jackson WR Probable Week 4 (back)
DENVER
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Rod Smith WR P-U-P List (hip)
Kenny Peterson DE Out Until October 7 (suspension)
Hamza Abdullah S Out Week 4 (hip)
Stephen Alexander TE Out Week 4 (calf)
Mike Bell RB Out Week 4 (concussion)
Ben Hamilton G Out Week 4 (concussion)
Ryan Harris T Out Week 4 (back)
John Lynch S Out Week 4 (groin)
Javon Walker WR Out Week 4 (knee)
Jay Cutler QB Probable Week 4 (ankle)
Domonique Foxworth CB Probable Week 4 (ankle)
Paul Smith RB Probable Week 4 (neck)

The Broncos' 2-2 start is their worst (through four games) in seven seasons. In allowing 181.0 rushing yards per game, the Broncos rank next to last in run defense. The new defensive scheme evidently still has some kinks to iron out. The Chargers led the Chiefs by 10 points going into the second half. That'd be a good time to rely on LaDainian Tomlinson, right? Well, LT had just six carries after halftime as the Chargers lost their third straight. Will Norv Turner make it to December?

Denver -1 $33/30
Over 45 $33/30

Den 28
SD 20
 
Agent 0659

Agent 0659

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Here's a game you don't want to miss!

Here's a game you don't want to miss!

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Baltimore at San Fransisco:

Bal -3.5
35.5

Baltimore has yet to cover a spread and has been erratic. San Francisco has been just plain bad at times. What gives Sunday when the Ravens - coming off an embarrassing loss to the Browns - go west to visit the 49ers, who were also squashed by Seattle?

Oddsmakers currently have the Ravens listed as 3-point favorites versus the 49ers, while the game's total is sitting at 36.

The Ravens lost to Cleveland 27-13 as a 4-point favorite in Week 4. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (40).

Steve McNair completed 34-of-53 passes for 307 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Baltimore and Willis McGahee rushed for 104 yards on 14 carries.

The 49ers lost to Seattle 23-3 as a 1.5-point underdog in Week 4. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (40.5).

Trent Dilfer completed 12-of-33 passes for 128 yards with two interceptions for San Francisco after replacing an injured Alex Smith, while Frank Gore rushed for 79 yards on 16 carries.

Current streak:
San Francisco has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Baltimore: 2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS
San Francisco: 2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS

Baltimore most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3

San Francisco most recently:
When playing in October are 2-8
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
San Francisco is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games at home

INJURIES
BALTIMORE
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Dan Cody LB P-U-P List (knee)
Mike Smith LB P-U-P List (shoulder)
Jonathan Ogden T Out Week 4 (toe)
Trevor Pryce DT Out Week 4 (wrist)
Samari Rolle CB Out Week 4 (illness)
Mark Clayton WR Questionable Week 4 (calf)
Daniel Wilcox TE Questionable Week 4 (ankle)
Demetrius Williams WR Questionable Week 4 (heel)
Justin Green RB Probable Week 4 (thigh)
Todd Heap TE Probable Week 4 (calf)
Ray Lewis LB Probable Week 4 (ankle)
Derrick Mason WR Probable Week 4 (back)
Steve McNair QB Probable Week 4 (groin)
Ed Reed S Probable Week 4 (wrist)
Gary Stills LB Probable Week 4 (knee)
Todd Heap TE Left Game Week 4 (hamstring)
SAN FRANCISCO
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Tarell Brown CB Out Week 4 (hamstring)
Vernon Davis TE Out Week 4 (knee)
Jason Hill WR Out Week 4 (hamstring)
Jonas Jennings T Probable Week 4 (calf)
Mark Roman S Probable Week 4 (elbow)
Alex Smith QB Left Game Week 4 (shoulder)

The Ravens aren't looking like one of those potentially elite teams many experts expected them to be. Sunday's loss to Cleveland can best be described as humbling. "This is a pretty low point for us," TE Todd Heap told the Baltimore Sun. With QB Alex Smith sidelined with a shoulder injury, veteran Trent Dilfer moves into the starting role. He'll be taking over an offense that ranks last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards. Coordinator Jim Hostler is feeling the heat.

SF +3.5 $33/30
Over 35 $33/30:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:


SF 21
Bal 20
 
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Agent 0659

Agent 0659

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Chicago at Green Bay:

GB -3
40.5

Hands up everyone who predicted the Packers would be 4-0 and the Bears 1-3 in this spot in the schedule - that's what we thought. Green Bay and Brett Favre are still struggling for some oddsmaker respect though, as they are favored at home by just three.

Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total is sitting at 41?.

The Bears lost to Detroit 37-27 as a 2.5-point favorite in Week 4. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (46).

Brian Griese completed 34-of-52 passes for 286 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions for Chicago, while Bernard Berrian caught eight passes for 99 yards.

The Packers defeated Minnesota 23-16 as a 1-point favorite in Week 4. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (38).

Brett Favre threw for 344 yards with a pair of TD passes for Green Bay, while Greg Jennings and James Jones each caught a touchdown passes in the win.

Current streak:
Chicago has lost 2 straight games.
Green Bay has won 4 straight games.

Team records:
Chicago: 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS
Green Bay: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS

Chicago most recently:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 7-3

Green Bay most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Chicago is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Chicago's last 20 games
Chicago is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 13 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Chicago

INJURIES
CHICAGO
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Obafemi Ayanbadejo FB Out Until October 7 (suspension)
Adam Archuleta S Out Week 4 (hand)
Lance Briggs LB Out Week 4 (hamstring)
Charles Tillman CB Out Week 4 (ankle)
Nathan Vasher CB Out Week 4 (groin)
Ruben Brown G Questionable Week 4 (ankle)
Tommie Harris DT Questionable Week 4 (knee)
Fred Miller T Questionable Week 4 (knee)
Adewale Ogunleye DE Probable Week 4 (hip)
Adrian Peterson RB Probable Week 4 (calf)
Brian Urlacher LB Probable Week 4 (back)
Darwin Walker DT Probable Week 4 (knee)
Kevin Payne DB Left Game Week 4 (arm)
John Tait T Left Game Week 4 (ankle)
GREEN BAY
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Desmond Bishop LB Out Week 4 (shoulder)
Justin Harrell DT Out Week 4 (knee)
Brandon Jackson RB Out Week 4 (shin)
Mike Montgomery DE Out Week 4 (knee)
Daniel Muir DT Out Week 4 (ribs)
Chad Clifton T Probable Week 4 (knee)
Donald Driver WR Probable Week 4 (toe)
Brett Favre QB Probable Week 4 (right finger)
Bubba Franks TE Probable Week 4 (knee)
Al Harris CB Probable Week 4 (back)
Cullen Jenkins DE Probable Week 4 (ribs)
Greg Jennings WR Probable Week 4 (hamstring)
Vernand Morency RB Probable Week 4 (knee)
Scott Wells C Probable Week 4 (hamstring)
Corey Williams DT Probable Week 4 (knee)
Charles Woodson CB Probable Week 4 (foot)
Nick Collins DB Left Game Week 4 (knee)
Al Harris DB Left Game Week 4 (hand)

Expect Brett Favre to slow down this month. Of his record 422 TDs, 87 have come in October -- the lowest total of any of the four primary regular-season months. How do the other months stack up? 1. September (117), 2. November (108) and 3. December (102). Perhaps the most stunning development Sunday was the NFL-record 34 points the Bears allowed the Lions in the fourth quarter. We were gonna ask Mike Ditka about it when we saw him in the ESPN parking lot Monday, but he was already in his Ditka-sized SUV.

GB -2.5 (buy) $40/30

GB 31
Chi 10
 
A

amich1

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interesting bye week info, have you tracked this recently to see if the trend holds? the #'s posted in the link are 6 yrs. old

thx
 
A

amich1

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those bye week #'s are seriously misleading b/c it's old data,

Over the last five years, reg season teams with more than 13 days rest are 80-67-2 ATS
Favs 49-30 ATS
Road Favs are 15-6...

I can break it down further if you want

Ex HF from -3 to -6.5 are 19-10 ATS and 9-19-1 O/U avg score 21.9 to 15.5, avg total 37.4.

This would be Washington -3.5
 
Agent 0659

Agent 0659

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amich1 said:
those bye week #'s are seriously misleading b/c it's old data,

Over the last five years, reg season teams with more than 13 days rest are 80-67-2 ATS
Favs 49-30 ATS
Road Favs are 15-6...

I can break it down further if you want

Ex HF from -3 to -6.5 are 19-10 ATS and 9-19-1 O/U avg score 21.9 to 15.5, avg total 37.4.

This would be Washington -3.5
Click to expand...

Nice! :00hour :00hour :00hour
 
Woodson

Woodson

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Agent 0659 said:
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis:

Ind -10.5
46

The Colts are developing an air of invincibility after their Week 4 bucking of the Broncos. Can they buck the Bucs this week at home? Tampa is a surprising 3-1 and has allowed just 24 points in the past three games.

Oddsmakers currently have the Colts listed as 11-point favorites versus the Buccaneers, while the game's total is sitting at 46?.

The Buccaneers defeated Carolina 20-7 as a 3-point underdog in Week 4. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (39).

Jeff Garcia threw for 176 yards and ran in for a touchdown for Tampa Bay, while Earnest Graham rushed for 48 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.

The Colts defeated Denver 38-20 as a 10-point favorite in Week 4. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (46.5).

Peyton Manning threw for 193 yards with three touchdown passes and also ran in for score for Indianapolis, while Joseph Addai rushed for 136 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries.

Current streak:
Tampa Bay has won 3 straight games.
Indianapolis has won 4 straight games.

Team records:
Tampa Bay: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Indianapolis: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS

Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 4-6

Indianapolis most recently:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

INJURIES
TAMPA BAY
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Torrie Cox CB Out Until October 7 (suspension)
Brian Kelly CB Out Week 4 (groin)
Patrick Chukwurah DE Questionable Week 4 (knee)
Ike Hilliard WR Questionable Week 4 (ankle)
Greg Spires DE Questionable Week 4 (ankle)
Luke Petitgout T Left Game Week 4 (knee)
Carnell Williams RB Left Game Week 4 (knee)
INDIANAPOLIS
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Jeff Charleston DE Out Week 4 (knee)
Roy Hall WR Out Week 4 (shoulder)
Clint Session LB Out Week 4 (hamstring)
Dallas Clark TE Questionable Week 4 (quadricep)
Marlin Jackson CB Questionable Week 4 (quadricep)
Joseph Addai RB Left Game Week 4 (shoulder)
Rob Morris LB Left Game Week 4 (leg)
Bob Sanders S Left Game Week 4 (ribs)

The Colts could be facing some severe injury problems Sunday against Tampa Bay. WR Marvin Harrison, RB Joseph Addai, S Bob Sanders, TE Ben Utecht and LB Rob Morris are all banged up. Fortunately for Indy, the Bucs have injury problems of their own. The Bucs are 3-1, but can they overcome the season-ending injuries to RB Cadillac Williams and OT Luke Petitgout? Losing the veteran Petitgout might be the more damaging blow. Second-year pro Donald Penn takes over the LT role.


PASS

This looks like a good spot for Tampa, and they are worthy of a play. But I don't go against my boys so GL if you do!


Ind 24
TB 22
Click to expand...

Tampa outright,

Did you get your crystal yet?
 
S

Skanoochies

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Hi Agent, just wondering why some teams show 11 byes between `95 and `05 and others show 10, 9, 8, etc. Don`t all teams have byes every year? What am I missing here?:shrug:

Thanks in advance.
 
Senor Capper

Senor Capper

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I'll take a hit of whatever your passing around...

I'll take a hit of whatever your passing around...

Redskins win by DD.

Otherwise it appears you were sober picking the rest :142smilie :mj07: :142smilie

'cept for maybe KC & Indy ;)
 
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MadJack

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Agent 0659 said:
:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Baltimore at San Fransisco:

Bal -3.5
35.5

Baltimore has yet to cover a spread and has been erratic. San Francisco has been just plain bad at times. What gives Sunday when the Ravens - coming off an embarrassing loss to the Browns - go west to visit the 49ers, who were also squashed by Seattle?

Oddsmakers currently have the Ravens listed as 3-point favorites versus the 49ers, while the game's total is sitting at 36.

The Ravens lost to Cleveland 27-13 as a 4-point favorite in Week 4. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (40).

Steve McNair completed 34-of-53 passes for 307 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Baltimore and Willis McGahee rushed for 104 yards on 14 carries.

The 49ers lost to Seattle 23-3 as a 1.5-point underdog in Week 4. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (40.5).

Trent Dilfer completed 12-of-33 passes for 128 yards with two interceptions for San Francisco after replacing an injured Alex Smith, while Frank Gore rushed for 79 yards on 16 carries.

Current streak:
San Francisco has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Baltimore: 2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS
San Francisco: 2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS

Baltimore most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3

San Francisco most recently:
When playing in October are 2-8
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
San Francisco is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games at home

INJURIES
BALTIMORE
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Dan Cody LB P-U-P List (knee)
Mike Smith LB P-U-P List (shoulder)
Jonathan Ogden T Out Week 4 (toe)
Trevor Pryce DT Out Week 4 (wrist)
Samari Rolle CB Out Week 4 (illness)
Mark Clayton WR Questionable Week 4 (calf)
Daniel Wilcox TE Questionable Week 4 (ankle)
Demetrius Williams WR Questionable Week 4 (heel)
Justin Green RB Probable Week 4 (thigh)
Todd Heap TE Probable Week 4 (calf)
Ray Lewis LB Probable Week 4 (ankle)
Derrick Mason WR Probable Week 4 (back)
Steve McNair QB Probable Week 4 (groin)
Ed Reed S Probable Week 4 (wrist)
Gary Stills LB Probable Week 4 (knee)
Todd Heap TE Left Game Week 4 (hamstring)
SAN FRANCISCO
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Tarell Brown CB Out Week 4 (hamstring)
Vernon Davis TE Out Week 4 (knee)
Jason Hill WR Out Week 4 (hamstring)
Jonas Jennings T Probable Week 4 (calf)
Mark Roman S Probable Week 4 (elbow)
Alex Smith QB Left Game Week 4 (shoulder)

The Ravens aren't looking like one of those potentially elite teams many experts expected them to be. Sunday's loss to Cleveland can best be described as humbling. "This is a pretty low point for us," TE Todd Heap told the Baltimore Sun. With QB Alex Smith sidelined with a shoulder injury, veteran Trent Dilfer moves into the starting role. He'll be taking over an offense that ranks last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards. Coordinator Jim Hostler is feeling the heat.

SF +3.5 $33/30
Over 35 $33/30:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:


SF 21
Bal 20
Click to expand...
lewispeyton.jpg
 
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