college plays for week #11....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
Helluva season so far Al. Keep up the great work my friend! :toast:
At first glance I'm with ya on the Razorbacks. Since their three blowouts to Alabama, Texas and Florida they have been very competitive and have covered the last 4 games, winning two straight up as underdogs. I really thought after losing in the last minute at Kentucky and then losing at home to Houston Nutt and Ole Miss that they would pack it in.
I haven't done any research yet but I'm pretty sure that I'll be playing right along side with ya.
At first glance I'm with ya on the Razorbacks. Since their three blowouts to Alabama, Texas and Florida they have been very competitive and have covered the last 4 games, winning two straight up as underdogs. I really thought after losing in the last minute at Kentucky and then losing at home to Houston Nutt and Ole Miss that they would pack it in.
I haven't done any research yet but I'm pretty sure that I'll be playing right along side with ya.
thanks guys...
so. carolina has fla up after this game, so there is a possiblity that they may be looking past ark...
i wonder if kramer has this as a sandwhich game for so. carolina ?
so. carolina has fla up after this game, so there is a possiblity that they may be looking past ark...
i wonder if kramer has this as a sandwhich game for so. carolina ?
AR,
Good luck this week. Keep it going! I like the play because I think Ark is a tough out lately but I am gonna pass because this is a good spot for SC to lay one on them. Ark off a big emotional 4th down stop and ranked win, going into SC where they just beat up Tenn but DD points is nove in the SEC.
Cheers
Irish
Good luck this week. Keep it going! I like the play because I think Ark is a tough out lately but I am gonna pass because this is a good spot for SC to lay one on them. Ark off a big emotional 4th down stop and ranked win, going into SC where they just beat up Tenn but DD points is nove in the SEC.
Cheers
Irish
thanks irish...
adding....
under 43(120) tcu / utah.....
wanted to post this because the line is going down..started at 44.5...now 42.5....
i will have a writeup later in the week...
good luck
adding....
under 43(120) tcu / utah.....
wanted to post this because the line is going down..started at 44.5...now 42.5....
i will have a writeup later in the week...
good luck
GL Ar. I like both of them . I like TCU also. That defense will keep this score down bigtime.
BA
BA
al, i have some terrible news regarding that arkansas play. i LOVE arkansas this week. so tread carefully.
thanks guys...
under 43(120) tcu / utah.....
tcu is ranked #2 in the nation in total defense.....they allow only 214 ypg......they only allow 175 passing ypg & is ranked 5th in pass efficiency def.....they only allow 38 rushing ypg......they are ranked #1 in sacks & #4 in tackles for a loss..they have also held 7 of their 10 opponents to 7 pts. or less...on offense they rank 29th in the nation in total offense.....they rush for over 200 ypg but have a below average passing attack.
the defense is also the strength of utah's team....they rank 7th in total defense allowing 266 ypg......they are ranked #8 in the nation in rush defense allowing just 89 ypg.....they allow 176 ypg passing & rank 24th in pass defense.....they allow 17 ppg on defense......on offense utah is ranked 32nd ranked in total offense.....they rank 30th in the nation in rushing offense by averaging 185 ypg....they throw for 220 ypg & like tcu, they average 36 ppg on offense.
these two teams have averaged 39 ppg in their last 5 meetings & 4 of those 5 have gone under....& last year they combined for 512 total yards of offense.
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (utah) - an excellent offensive team (>=34 ppg) against an excellent defensive team (<=16 PPG), in conference games.
over the last 5 seasons the ats record is......33-11.......75%
the average total posted in these games was......45.9
the average score in these games was....team 21.1, opponent 20.1.....total points scored.....41.2
in the last 2 times these 2 teams played, tcu turned the ball over 7 times & lost both times...so i look for tcu to play more conservatively & let their dominating defense win it for them....& since utah has an advantage in the kicking game, i look for them to play field position....as a result i don't see this game going over 40 points......
good luck
under 43(120) tcu / utah.....
tcu is ranked #2 in the nation in total defense.....they allow only 214 ypg......they only allow 175 passing ypg & is ranked 5th in pass efficiency def.....they only allow 38 rushing ypg......they are ranked #1 in sacks & #4 in tackles for a loss..they have also held 7 of their 10 opponents to 7 pts. or less...on offense they rank 29th in the nation in total offense.....they rush for over 200 ypg but have a below average passing attack.
the defense is also the strength of utah's team....they rank 7th in total defense allowing 266 ypg......they are ranked #8 in the nation in rush defense allowing just 89 ypg.....they allow 176 ypg passing & rank 24th in pass defense.....they allow 17 ppg on defense......on offense utah is ranked 32nd ranked in total offense.....they rank 30th in the nation in rushing offense by averaging 185 ypg....they throw for 220 ypg & like tcu, they average 36 ppg on offense.
these two teams have averaged 39 ppg in their last 5 meetings & 4 of those 5 have gone under....& last year they combined for 512 total yards of offense.
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (utah) - an excellent offensive team (>=34 ppg) against an excellent defensive team (<=16 PPG), in conference games.
over the last 5 seasons the ats record is......33-11.......75%
the average total posted in these games was......45.9
the average score in these games was....team 21.1, opponent 20.1.....total points scored.....41.2
in the last 2 times these 2 teams played, tcu turned the ball over 7 times & lost both times...so i look for tcu to play more conservatively & let their dominating defense win it for them....& since utah has an advantage in the kicking game, i look for them to play field position....as a result i don't see this game going over 40 points......
good luck
al, i have a terrible, terrible feeling iowa may spring the upset. that line looks low... just begging for psu money. i may just be overly nervous, since psu appears to have clear sailing to an unbeaten season... but that line scares me. only 5 points more than they were laying at osu? i'll have to take the 7 and may take the hawkeyes on the money line. oddly enough, i'll still root for the nittany lions. if i'm wrong and drop a buck or two but psu wins this game... well, i'll be ok with that.
adding...
louisville +7(120)...
louey is fresh off of being upset by syracuse, while pitt. is off a 4ot win over nd....although louey allowed syracuse to run for 200 yds last wek, their rush defense has been pretty good....pitt's biggest home win this year was by 11 points as a 13 point favorite to a mac opponent....
pitt, under wanny is 2-7 ats as ahome favorite of less than 10 points...
pitt. is 1-8 ats in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.....
pitt. is 0-6 ats in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
play against any team who upsets nd in its previous game if they are pick or favored vs. a sub .666 opponent...since 1980 the ats record is...15-1 (94%)....play against pitt..
play on - road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (louisville) - in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit favorite.
since 1992 the ats record is.....41-11........78.8%
good luck
louisville +7(120)...
louey is fresh off of being upset by syracuse, while pitt. is off a 4ot win over nd....although louey allowed syracuse to run for 200 yds last wek, their rush defense has been pretty good....pitt's biggest home win this year was by 11 points as a 13 point favorite to a mac opponent....
pitt, under wanny is 2-7 ats as ahome favorite of less than 10 points...
pitt. is 1-8 ats in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.....
pitt. is 0-6 ats in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
play against any team who upsets nd in its previous game if they are pick or favored vs. a sub .666 opponent...since 1980 the ats record is...15-1 (94%)....play against pitt..
play on - road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (louisville) - in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit favorite.
since 1992 the ats record is.....41-11........78.8%
good luck
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smitty...
i haven't decided on whether i am playing this game or not because there are many trends against psu..but don't think iowa is multi dimensional enough to beat a team as good as psu...
FWIW, I grabbed a bunch of Iowa +7.5 and I'll touch up the ML a bit as soon as one is posted. Not because Iowa is all that good, but from what I've seen of Penn State there is no way I'd lay more than 3 points in this game. Could PSU blow them out? Not likely. Could they shut Iowa out? If Stanzi plays as poorly as he did at Illinois last week, yes. Hoping for a much improved effort from Stanzi and a solid game from Greene on the ground to control the clock and keep Iowa in this one.
Damb, Al, UNBELIEVABLE
keep it going, bro. and say hi to the lovely Suzanne, Hooks and Broncobabe 