college plays for week #11....

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AR182

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hey dave....so it looks like you are back together...good to see..good luck...

adding....

nc st+4 (120).....

this ncst team hasn't thrown in the towel to their season & is playing pretty well, as witnessed by their 3 point loss to maryland before their bye. their young qb, russell wilson has given them life on offense & i wouldn't be surprised if they beat duke su...

duke on the other hand is coming off an ot loss....

since the inception of overtime, home favorites coming off an ot loss are 25-44-2 ats (36%).......& ot losers are 18-36-2 ats (33%) as conference home favorites in their next game, including 8-22 ats (26%) off a su/ats loss.


good luck
 
H

hawkeye

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GL AR-TCU total looks good--Redsfann--I am worried about Pst's speed. Whats the weahter going to be like in Iowa City Sat?
 
A

AR182

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thanks hawk...glad that you agree with the tcu under...

adding....

army+11....

this is an interesting matchup between an option running attack of army & a wide open passing attack of rice...imo it is easier to prepare for what rice does than the option attack of army.....rice beat utep last week & is now bowl eligible......even though army lost last week to air force, they still out gained them by a 250-174 margin....& as a matter of fact army has held their last 4 opponents to season low yardage, while rice has allowed 4 foes to gain their most yardage in a game....the rice defense allows an average of 170 yds. on the ground & 5 ypc...while army allows about 60% completeion %.....

rice is 1-7 ats in their last 8 non-conference home games

army has a large military presence in texas & usually perform well in texas....they have won 7 in a row ats in the state including almost upsetting tex. a & m & upsetting baylor.....

think army will try to shorten the game...& should be able to cover the number...


good luck
 
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tulah

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AR182 said:
hey dave....so it looks like you are back together...good to see..good luck...

adding....

nc st+4 (120).....

this ncst team hasn't thrown in the towel to their season & is playing pretty well, as witnessed by their 3 point loss to maryland before their bye. their young qb, russell wilson has given them life on offense & i wouldn't be surprised if they beat duke su...

duke on the other hand is coming off an ot loss....

since the inception of overtime, home favorites coming off an ot loss are 25-44-2 ats (36%).......& ot losers are 18-36-2 ats (33%) as conference home favorites in their next game, including 8-22 ats (26%) off a su/ats loss.


good luck
Click to expand...

Awesome stats .

Your threads are must reads.

I'm on N.C St so I'm gratefull you post great info.:toast:

GL
 
S

sooners25

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hawkeye said:
GL AR-TCU total looks good--Redsfann--I am worried about Pst's speed. Whats the weahter going to be like in Iowa City Sat?
Click to expand...

It could very much favor Iowa this weekend due to the fact of Greene and Co.

High of 41'... Light rain and snow throughout the day. The reason it will favor Iowa is Iowa City has severe wind advisory... 22 mph winds on avg with gusts way over that.

Good luck!
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys...appreciate the comments...


adding....

purdue +10 (120)......

this is more of a play against michigan state than a play on purdue...

believe it or not purdue & mich st are not that different statistically...msu is ranked # 40 offensively, while purdue is ranked #49....& defensively msu is ranked #56, while purdue is ranked #72...but msu is ranked #22 in the polls & purdue has been a big disappointment this year.....

both teams are coming off last minute victories last week...

i am not too impressed with msu eventhough they are 8-2 on the year.....msu as a team rushes the ball for 3.6 ypc...but allow 4.4 ypc on defense...their qb is completing under 50% of his passes & their receivers have a season long case of the drops this year (they dropped at least 7 passes last week)......in addition javon ringer, their do-everything back, who leads the nation in carries with 321 is starting to physically break down..he has missed practices with hamstring & shoulder (which will be operated on during the offseason) problems & a case of the flu..

pudue on the other hand runs for 4.9 ypc on the road, while allowing 4.1 ypc on defense on the road....they have had inconsistency at the qb position this year, & with their starter painter listed as day to day with a separated shoulder, they had to start a freshman last week & he played pretty well..

this is msu's 11th game in a row without a bye & have penn st up next so they may take purdue lightly...while purdue finally showed some inspiration last week for their retiring coach tiller & still have a very slight chance of making a bowl game if they win their final 3 games...

play against - a home team (msu) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.......32-8.........80%


good luck
 
A

AR182

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the writeup for....

arkansas +11....

this play is pretty simple...how can so. carolina, who averages 22.3 ppg be laying 10-12 points to a team that is on the upswing...a team that is 4-0 ats in their last 4 games.....

ark. has one of the youngest teams in the sec with freshmen and sophmores playing on both sides of the ball.....except at qb ( senior casey dick) & running back (leading rusher in the sec, junior michael smith),who averages nearly 130 yards per game and has 7 rushing tds & 2 receiving tds....they have the 29th ranked passing offense in the nation which is pretty good considering they played against some very good defenses..... bama (#4), fla (#16), kentucky (#26), auburn (#27), miss (#56) & texas, (before playing okla, missouri, ok st, & tex tech) which at the time was ranked in the top 20...

so. carolina has done it this year with their defense, which is in the top 10 & allow 271 ypg in sec play...on offense so. car. hasn't done much..they average about 100 yds. per game running the ball & at 3 ypc & they average about 220 yds. per game through the air....last week their starting qb hurt his knee (is expected to start) & their experienced 2nd string qb finished up....they also lost one of their starting offensive linemen for the season.....

every one of so. car. sec games have been 7 point games except against tenn., who packed it in for the year.....ark. is 2-2 su in their last 4 games....they had 3 pt win, 1 pt loss, 2 pt loss, & 7 pt win vs. tulsa...on the season ark. has played a tougher schedule than so. car....

with spurrier having a big game next week vs. fla, i think there is a possiblity of so. car. over looking ark & i can't see so. car. winning this game by double digits....an upset wouldn't surprise me either....

play against - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (so.carolina) - poor rushing team (100-140 ry/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 ry/game), after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.

the ats record over the last 10 seasons is......35-14......71%


good luck
 
Trizzle

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I'm here in the land of the Cocks and fully understand your reasoning. SC has a great D but absolutely no running game. It is a no play for me but SC should not be a double digit fav over anyone. GL
 
A

AR182

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thanks trizzle.....


adding.....

under 52(130) utah st / boise......

boise has been following the same formula all season....they jump out to a big lead..& then take the air out of the ball by slowing down the game....there is no need to run up the score & get style points for bcs busters because the main objective of these teams is to just remain unbeaten...

boise is able to play this way because of an outstanding defense that is allowing 9.5 points a game...& in wac play this year they have allowed just 26 points through 4 games. they are a perfect 3-0 to the under at home this season, while utah st. has been under in their last 5 games this season including being under 3 of 4 road games......

i don't see why boise should alter the way they have been playing.....& this game should not exceed by much their season average of 40 total points scored per game, especially since the utah st. qb is more of a running threat than a passing threat....


good luck
 
A

AR182

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adding...

under 52 osu / ucla...

both teams are having qb problems either by injuries or poor play so backups may be playing in this game...in addition osu's offense is built for turf surfaces & it shows because when oregon state plays on grass they average only 23 points per game as compared to 33 ppg for the season...& in the last 3 games their defense has given up an average of 17 ppg....ucla averages about 23 ppg on offense at home & the defense allows about 22 ppg at home.....

ucla is 7-0 under in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.

ucla is 10-2 under in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.



good luck
 
A

AR182

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there is a guy that i know at another forum who plays one game per week & hasn't lost yet this year...so he has a 10-0 record....his play for this week is rice....so out of respect for his capping ability & not wanting to go against a streak like that i decided to buy my army pick back by playing rice...so now the play looks like this....

army +11
rice-9 (140)

sorry if this causes a problem for anybody who followed me on this play..i just don't like to buck streaks...& who knows i may hit a middle on this game...it has happened a few times this year...


good luck
 
Smitty

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al/redsfann... for me, this pains me to say it (and i won't mind being wrong), but this is pretty much an anti-penn state play for me. they have already had a season that has to be above and beyond anything they could have dreamt of when the season started. and now they've had 2 weeks to listen to everybody (except joepa, i'm sure) tell them just how great they are. and, as good as things have gone so far, this is not a great football team. they are playing very solid on both sides of the ball, but they are not great. i'm not even convinced they are one of the 10 best teams in the country, much less one of the 2 or 3 best.
 
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