something for you guys to work on - AFC Playoffs

[MadJack]

i have a futures bet, ravens to win the AFC $300 to win $7800.

what's the best way to play this bet with hedges?

i can take JAX sunday +650 for $? just in case the worse thing happens and to protect my investment.

then, most likely the ravens will play the NYJ/MIA/NE in round 1 on the road as a small fave or small dog.

then, probably play the titans as a small dog.

then, most likely play the colts or steelers for the crown.

how would you play this?

i'm thinking a small $100 to win $650 on JAX.

then the same small bet on the 1st round to cover my $300.

then i'm not sure what to do.

maybe just let the whole thing ride.

all opinions appreciated.

TIA

GO RAVENS! :00hour :mj06:

 

[JustFootball]

First thought

First thought

Hi Jack, Merry Christmas to you and all MJ'ers!

My very first reaction is to save yourself $50 on the Jax game by just covering your initial bet. If I thought the Jags really had a chance at M&T Sunday, I might do the $100 to possibly make a nice profit as well. But my gut tells me Ravens nail this. Only $50, but hey, every little bit....

bol. :toast:

 

[Old School]

9 stern test for your Ravens this season..

If any club is ready this one is..

At home.."D" will carry the day..

Let it ride til the road trip..

Then insure a profit..

HAPPY HOLIDAYS..

 

[Lee]

Totally agree. Balt is my survivor this week to win my pool. I think they crush Jax. Jax is a mess!!

 

[jr11]

Can't see them losing to Jax boss. The Jags Superbowl was their last game on national TV versus Indy. Hang tight.

jr11

 

[Mr. Mel]

For only $300, let it ride. No way the Jags win that game.

 

[Hooks]

Can't see them losing to Jax boss. The Jags Superbowl was their last game on national TV versus Indy. Hang tight.

jr11

:iagree:

 

[DerrickTulips]

Can't see them losing to Jax boss. The Jags Superbowl was their last game on national TV versus Indy. Hang tight.

jr11

You obviously havent watched the last 2 weeks.. anything can happen.

Jack I would let it ride then wait until next week and see the no options.

 

[jr11]

You obviously havent watched the last 2 weeks.. anything can happen.

Jack I would let it ride then wait until next week and see the no options.

You are right, I haven't watched football all year. Not sure what I was thinking. I just thought a Raven from the air would be able to hurt a Jaguar. I plan to tune in for my first game this weekend, and just set up the NFL Sunday ticket to watch this game specifically.

 

[rusty]

Id sit this week out.
Then if Balt. plays AFC East winner next id play in these senerios .If NYJ win division id bet 300.00 to break even on Balt.

2nd depending on Mia or NE id be more cautious on what id stake either way.Tough to say what would happen both teams.

Ill get back with my opinion after this weekend.

 

[FirstnGoal]

I don't see the Ravens losing this week at home but :nono: for a super-smalll $50 you can protect your investment. :yup

Remember on any given day :scared anything can happen in this league.

Happy Holidays!

 

[IX_Bender]

Don't hedge future bets until the postseason.

Thats rule # 143.

If your team was bet on before the season starts and doesnt even make the playoffs, then chalk it up as a loss. You would possibly have to hedge five games at this point, ask yourself what would really be left?

 

[tball]

You would possibly have to hedge five games at this point, ask yourself what would really be left?

5 games? he just said the AFC, not the super bowl right? even with the Jax game that only adds to four, no?


do you really wanna collect on a ML bet against you're beloved ravens??? i mean, i understand the idea of hedging, though wouldnt you rather put forth all your karmic energy in wholeheartedly showing unflailing support for your birds in the playoff quest this year and RISK the 300?

if no, then i would $300 ML opponent 1st game,

ravens win there =$650 Ml 2nd opp (ravens dog?)

ravens win there =$1050 ML play opp for AFC

this way you would lose 2000 or so but win 7800 plus orig 3 for total of 6100(7800+300=8100-2000=61). if ravens fall short, your opp-o ML lets you come close to wiining back original 300(prolly less depending on MLs) depends on your faith, and what you're looking to collect. GL

 

[el JB]

MATE ...Mully has his GOY on 'em

MATE ...Mully has his GOY on 'em

and i am using them in 2 parlays for a total 1k
so i think you have yourself a good bet
LET IT RIDE

 

[hedgehog]

I would play 100 on Jax ml then see what the line is for next week. then play according to protect your bet

 

[baby johnson]

30 on ml

 

[bej0101]

bet at least the 300..+650...to get started and protect some winnings..i think jax has a good chance of winning here..:toast:

 

[MadJack]

thanks guys. was hoping for something i might have overlooked.

i pretty much decided to let the whole thing ride until maybe the last game for the AFC.

they should win today and can get in with NE or MIA loss anyway.

next week they will probably be a fave vs the jets or mia.

the following week they would meet ten and should handle them as well. :SIB

for the championship it should be the colts or pit. the only team i'm concerened about is the colts because we can't beat that no huddle playin manning.

:toast:

 

[jr11]

for the championship it should be the colts or pit. the only team i'm concerened about is the colts because we can't beat that no huddle playin manning.

:toast:

Um, 0-2!

 

[MadJack]

Um, 0-2!

yeah, you're worried about them too :sadwave: