NBA SAT 032109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[LookKaPyPy]

Hey man...gotta tell you first that I love this thread (even from the other forum), you got some real nice insights. Not to worry, I'm no stalker either, I've been here for a while (stealing Teemo & co NFL picks for personal gain :mj06: ), just never bothered to join, because, honestly, there wasn't threads like these where you could discuss stuff without getting into homer arguments and extortion tactics.

I figured Cats line would be around 200 and I thought it might be good idea to hop on the under as I've seen Pacers play lately and they're just so anemic on the offense. True, most of it was without Granger but even with him in and against "bad D and alot of run" Mavs team they couldn't score alot. Seemed so sloppy and settling for way too many jumpers, there wasn't any real gritt in the team, they were slow and lacking the energy. Not just latest game, was same against Blazers as well and even before that. Now b2b game, away, against a playoff chasing team lead by Larry Brown, while arguing among eachother...they shouldn't be able to get out of 80s tonight.
Wallace is a stud and there is just really good defensive effort from the guys. I consider Bell to be one of the top man-to-man defenders - but they are also doing well offensivley against poor-D teams and Pacers is one such team. I wouldn't consider it strange to see Cats go over centurion mark yet again...and hence am leaning more on the side than total (actually played the side already ), as they can drop 110.


I figured Suns will get 231, but one I was off was Celtics game, as I had it at 184. With big daddy KG back on the court, everybody gotta step up on the D, there is no slacking around, gotta work your feet. You know that he's gonna make them play that way.
B2b, how much will he play might be the issue, but Grizz aren't really lighting the board, and haven't been whole season, 93ppg last 5, and they score 1p more home than away. Can they break 80 here ? What am I missing...why was it so off...

BOL everyone

 

[RevBen2006]

guys two thing are obvious here. Theres alot of respect for ax and it wouldtake forever to go threw this thread. Is there a pick in here? thanks

 

[uwmattyk13]

guys two thing are obvious here. Theres alot of respect for ax and it wouldtake forever to go threw this thread. Is there a pick in here? thanks

Are you saying you don't want to read through and LEARN anything?

 

[uwmattyk13]

AX take another look at that test site, You'll see how easy it is to customize

 

[eeeerock]

IMHO...OK rolls by DD in this game...

Michigan pretty much relys on the 3,Oklahoma will bother the 3 point shot from them,however the difference in this game will be rebounding.Oklahoma will own the glass and control the paint.....Agree Oklahoma wins by DD.Should be a physical game as most Big Ten contests were,big advantage to Okie.Only way Mich hangs around is if they shoot great from 3.

 

[axp59]

Hey man...gotta tell you first that I love this thread (even from the other forum), you got some real nice insights. Not to worry, I'm no stalker either, I've been here for a while (stealing Teemo & co NFL picks for personal gain :mj06: ), just never bothered to join, because, honestly, there wasn't threads like these where you could discuss stuff without getting into homer arguments and extortion tactics.

I figured Cats line would be around 200 and I thought it might be good idea to hop on the under as I've seen Pacers play lately and they're just so anemic on the offense. True, most of it was without Granger but even with him in and against "bad D and alot of run" Mavs team they couldn't score alot. Seemed so sloppy and settling for way too many jumpers, there wasn't any real gritt in the team, they were slow and lacking the energy. Not just latest game, was same against Blazers as well and even before that. Now b2b game, away, against a playoff chasing team lead by Larry Brown, while arguing among eachother...they shouldn't be able to get out of 80s tonight.
Wallace is a stud and there is just really good defensive effort from the guys. I consider Bell to be one of the top man-to-man defenders - but they are also doing well offensivley against poor-D teams and Pacers is one such team. I wouldn't consider it strange to see Cats go over centurion mark yet again...and hence am leaning more on the side than total (actually played the side already ), as they can drop 110.


I figured Suns will get 231, but one I was off was Celtics game, as I had it at 184. With big daddy KG back on the court, everybody gotta step up on the D, there is no slacking around, gotta work your feet. You know that he's gonna make them play that way.
B2b, how much will he play might be the issue, but Grizz aren't really lighting the board, and haven't been whole season, 93ppg last 5, and they score 1p more home than away. Can they break 80 here ? What am I missing...why was it so off...

BOL everyone

Man how the hell lucky are we to get another insightful poster on this thread. This write up is money. I'm going to let the others soak this in without much commentary from me but you baited me with my homer C's so I'm obligated to reply.
Yes, I see MEM breaking 80 here but barely. First, it's going to take just a few games for even the a pro like KG to get his NBA legs back. Yes his presence alone will change the dynamics in this team but once your legs starts feeling hollow in 4Q, it's a struggle to D up like you want to. Second, the Celtics team D has changed while KG was out. Muscle memory does take a little time to correct even when it's already familiar with the movement. They changed their defensive scheme while KG was out and now has to revert back to the old. This too will take a little time.

Know this. I hope I am VERY wrong and MEM scores 70 because I'm going to be on the under in this one. I just want to be a realistic homer.

GL and glad to have you.

 

[axp59]

guys two thing are obvious here. Theres alot of respect for ax and it wouldtake forever to go threw this thread. Is there a pick in here? thanks

LOL, the tread title reads (NO PICKS INSIDE) but if you dig around...they are everywhere from the many cappers in here. GL...Go back about 3 pages and you'll find some good ones.

 

[axp59]

AX take another look at that test site, You'll see how easy it is to customize

ok pal but getting close to game time with less than 2 hours to go. This is usually my busiest time of the day with board watching and last minute research. Will do as soon as I have a chance but probably later tonight. did you get my PM? Thanks man.

 

[Goalie31]

How did your test go last nite Ax..GL..To All

 

[axp59]

Michigan pretty much relys on the 3,Oklahoma will bother the 3 point shot from them,however the difference in this game will be rebounding.Oklahoma will own the glass and control the paint.....Agree Oklahoma wins by DD.Should be a physical game as most Big Ten contests were,big advantage to Okie.Only way Mich hangs around is if they shoot great from 3.

Great point...I guess that's the same reason why my lean is on the under...thanks

 

[axp59]

How did your test go last nite Ax..GL..To All

Thanks for asking bro. I passed...i was psyched and came on this thread and you could tell because I was freakin wired. Thanks bro and GL tonight

 

[uwmattyk13]

ok pal but getting close to game time with less than 2 hours to go. This is usually my busiest time of the day with board watching and last minute research. Will do as soon as I have a chance but probably later tonight. did you get my PM? Thanks man.

No problem, take your time, yea I pm'd you back with that info

 

[jim844]

hey revben i believe the point of ax's threads are more to promote discussion and bounce ideas/theories off other people who can offer valuable insights and perhaps a viewpoint that others may have overlooked.
i personally have learned a great deal from reading thru everyone's posts and getting a sense as to how to properly cap games
while i haven't developed a mathematical system/program like some of the more advanced cappers i have learned to look for certain things in matchups/trends/spreads/stats etc.. all thanks to threads like this one
sorry if this sounds sanctimonious or condescending but i don't think it'd take more then 10 mins of ur time to skim thru the posts, atleast to look for picks or even to read thru some of the discussion that was brought up
you may discover you don't agree with the pick and want to fade it and you may be right

anyways enough of my ranting

ax: i was curious what other sports do you bet/cap? I recall at the old site you said MLB was your main sport and you just do nba on the side while waiting for MLB?
Do you do any others?

 

[Slicer]

WOW, hey guys, I've been feeling a little sick these past 2 days so in/out of the discussion just chiming in where I can.

Hell I slept through 1st H of the Memphis game and just woke up looks like everyone is getting some cash back into their pockets this morning.

Let's keep it rolling and good karma around the forums tonight.

Ax> COVER BLOWN?? F*%&, hope the rifraff stay out but I doubt it now, email me if any plans change and we have to set up shop elsewhere, or maybe mods here will crackdown on the bashers and keep them out or kurby them off LOL had to use the emoticon there.

Let's get some winners folks! Looks like the Ville got it done, next up UNC/Wash/OK.

 

[Woodson]

Fellas,

Looks like you have fit in nicely. Best of luck to you and your plays!

Ax,

Do you do this for baseball? I'd definitely be interested in joining in the discussion.

B

 

[PickNPop]

TURK JUST WENT TOUT

I saw his avatar in his post and was like "WTF he's banned?" and then saw the second post and was like

Hope everyone is doing well, gonna catch up on the rest of the thread right now.

 

[Woodson]

Ax> COVER BLOWN?? F*%&, hope the rifraff stay out but I doubt it now, email me if any plans change and we have to set up shop elsewhere, or maybe mods here will crackdown on the bashers and keep them out or kurby them off LOL had to use the emoticon there.

There is value add to the forum with your daily threads. There is no way bashing will be an issue here. If it is feel free to contact the admins. Like what you guys are doing and hope you guys stay.

:toast:

 

[Goalie31]

Congrats.Been successful day so far.Looks like A&M may let me down but only sprinkled a small amount on that bet and played over pretty heavy had a good feeling when points dropped before tipoff and hAd a feeling A&M defense could not stop UConn from putting up large number.I was just hoping A&M would put up more points and cover +12 bought two points.Tailing you on the Washington and Knicks under..GL.To All

 

[axp59]

No problem, take your time, yea I pm'd you back with that info

HOLY COW you did some work there. OH MY...

I just took a quick peek but will check it out more tonight!!!

Thanks so much!

 

[JCWhy]

Looks like I'm the only one here on Michigan. :mj08: