I'm eyeballing:
OKC +5.5
TOR -4
UTA -9.5
CHI/BOS O187
Weird. No Unders and 3 sides. Any thoughts fellas?
OKC +5.5
TOR -4
UTA -9.5
CHI/BOS O187
Weird. No Unders and 3 sides. Any thoughts fellas?
NBA FRI 103009 early thoughts - value hunting
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
From PFJ
From PFJ
FROM PFJ
I KNOW I KNOW WAY TOO EARLY BUT I AM LIKING:
CHAR/NYK UNDER
NO/SAC OVER
LAK/DALL OVER
From PFJ
FROM PFJ
I KNOW I KNOW WAY TOO EARLY BUT I AM LIKING:
CHAR/NYK UNDER
NO/SAC OVER
LAK/DALL OVER
- May 9, 2009
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Had my eyes on Toronto too. And Betfair opened it at -3.5, may jump on it fast. Also liking Orlando, Vince going back to Jersey, i sense that he will want to do a good job. Still soon to jump on this one though.
Im looking at:
Atl/Wash Over 203 (Washington I watched vs. Dallas the other night, very impressed with Foye and Arenas, Atlanta had trouble playing defense the other night and I could see these teams pouring in some 3's)
Knicks +2.5 (don't care they played bad the other night, the Bobcats are fucking terrible, the owner should get his refund for expansion fee cause this team couldn't outdraw Duke and Cameron only holds about 9k)
Knicks/Bobcats Under 195, be lucky to see this game hit 180.
Toronto/Memphis Under 195- while the Raptors poured in some points on Clev, memphis can't score.
Toronto -4 Good call Ax, like this one too
Bucks/Sixers Under 195, the Bucks have nothing, zero, notta, no mas. If the sixers can struggle a little and don't put up 120 we should be ok here.
Toronto -4 $300
Knicks +2.5 $200
Everything else $100 action play
Season Record 2-5 (-350)
p.s. HOW BOUT DEM HEELS LAST NIGHT, oh how I wish I would have laid something on +750 ML, but I'll take my 2-0 start in CFB for the week and will add WVU -3 tomorrow.
Atl/Wash Over 203 (Washington I watched vs. Dallas the other night, very impressed with Foye and Arenas, Atlanta had trouble playing defense the other night and I could see these teams pouring in some 3's)
Knicks +2.5 (don't care they played bad the other night, the Bobcats are fucking terrible, the owner should get his refund for expansion fee cause this team couldn't outdraw Duke and Cameron only holds about 9k)
Knicks/Bobcats Under 195, be lucky to see this game hit 180.
Toronto/Memphis Under 195- while the Raptors poured in some points on Clev, memphis can't score.
Toronto -4 Good call Ax, like this one too
Bucks/Sixers Under 195, the Bucks have nothing, zero, notta, no mas. If the sixers can struggle a little and don't put up 120 we should be ok here.
Toronto -4 $300
Knicks +2.5 $200
Everything else $100 action play
Season Record 2-5 (-350)
p.s. HOW BOUT DEM HEELS LAST NIGHT, oh how I wish I would have laid something on +750 ML, but I'll take my 2-0 start in CFB for the week and will add WVU -3 tomorrow.
Hell, it's Friday. I would waste this money going out into town anyway. Why not give it a chance to earn some back? :00hour
Ax, so happy i scratched that itch.. a +330 itch :00hour
Carmelo just as i thought, was too much for them today.
Carmelo just as i thought, was too much for them today.
I'm happy you did too bro. I was trying to think back as I was watching the game who I had that conversation with. Nice call! That was no simple task winning in POR. :00hour
- Mar 18, 2009
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Like the sides - especially the Thunder and Raptors.
OKC a year older and are beginning to reflect the scrappiness of their coach Scott Brooks in character - as much as playing at home served them well last season, they will need to make some noise on the road to raise eyebrows further. Frontline of Kristic, Green, and Durant can cause matchup headaches owing to size and agility (of Green and Durant) - Westbrook shows no immediate signs of a sophomore slump and Sefalosha looks to be a better fit w/ the Thunder than the Bulls. Detroit's debut for the season came against the Grizzlies, who show tantalizing glimpses, but have yet to put it all together (and w/ the additions of Randolph and Iverson, may have inadvertantly regressed due to importing suspect veteran "leadership").
The Toronto -4 a definite - playing well against Cleveland means nothing if you sputter against lowly Memphis; need to pick up wins when confronted w/ lesser competition, not just marquee teams - they all count in the W column.
Chicago/Boston game currently off-the-board at the book I'm using so unsure as to what the issue is.
OKC a year older and are beginning to reflect the scrappiness of their coach Scott Brooks in character - as much as playing at home served them well last season, they will need to make some noise on the road to raise eyebrows further. Frontline of Kristic, Green, and Durant can cause matchup headaches owing to size and agility (of Green and Durant) - Westbrook shows no immediate signs of a sophomore slump and Sefalosha looks to be a better fit w/ the Thunder than the Bulls. Detroit's debut for the season came against the Grizzlies, who show tantalizing glimpses, but have yet to put it all together (and w/ the additions of Randolph and Iverson, may have inadvertantly regressed due to importing suspect veteran "leadership").
The Toronto -4 a definite - playing well against Cleveland means nothing if you sputter against lowly Memphis; need to pick up wins when confronted w/ lesser competition, not just marquee teams - they all count in the W column.
Chicago/Boston game currently off-the-board at the book I'm using so unsure as to what the issue is.
- Mar 18, 2009
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As much as Roy is inching towards lower level "super"-star status, the rest of the Blazers don't really jump out at you - collection of some solid basketball players, but anyone truly heads and shoulders above their peers save for Roy?
They also play a deliberate game that's not necessarily smash-mouth football-style as Riley and Van Gundy employed in New York, but it's very mechanical and tailored on a rigid system - McMillen was a a defensive stud during his time as a player in Seattle, not sure if he's the most creative offensive mind in the game; team sure doesn't execute the most intricate offensive schemes and one could easily retort that if they're effective scoring, who cares? Quite true until you come up against a team that defends your weaknesses well, but your strengths even better owing to the predictability of it all.
- Mar 18, 2009
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great work tonight ax, guys. the unders were the place to be. 5 of 6 so far, though still shooting from the gut.
interested in that bos/chi game. u guys seem to like the over. bos seems to be in mid season form especially with kg n sheed in the mix. chi scored 92 @ home against a tired looking spurs. I think bos has a better D than the spurs right now. Gotta look at that one. like hornets at home ,but the kings as horrible as they are seem to play hornets well. I do like slicers chat on charlotte. knicks are a weak defensive team , but charlotte can't score. charlotte is good at defense, knicks seem to have gotten rid of alot of their speed they had in the past. I like the under. liking raptors and the under and really think cleveland takes it out on minni. wolves looked horrible until the nets folded in the 4th .narrow it down to 2 or 3. i'll sleep on it:shrug:
interested in that bos/chi game. u guys seem to like the over. bos seems to be in mid season form especially with kg n sheed in the mix. chi scored 92 @ home against a tired looking spurs. I think bos has a better D than the spurs right now. Gotta look at that one. like hornets at home ,but the kings as horrible as they are seem to play hornets well. I do like slicers chat on charlotte. knicks are a weak defensive team , but charlotte can't score. charlotte is good at defense, knicks seem to have gotten rid of alot of their speed they had in the past. I like the under. liking raptors and the under and really think cleveland takes it out on minni. wolves looked horrible until the nets folded in the 4th .narrow it down to 2 or 3. i'll sleep on it:shrug:
Great call last night Ax, another winner! The only thing that stuck out to me today was OKC, as well as a couple o/u's, but I gotta check out some more things for those. That OKC line opened at 7 in some places, and is already down below 5! The Pistons home lines always seem to be high because the market sees value with this team, but I really think a young OKC team will come in there and take it down to the wire. 2 possessions is a value IMHO.
You asked for feedback,here is my take on the Toronto/Memphis play....I generally look for home dogs on Friday which Memphis is.+1 for Memphis.
Look to fade a team off a huge upset win(Toronto beat Clev),+2 Memphis.Look to play on a team after an emberassing home loss(Memphis whooped by Detroit)+3 for Memphis....Toronto has been a fade on Fridays for the past couple years and I will continue it this year,for whatever reason they struggle on Fridays....I willl take Memphis outright and see it has dropped already from opening # of 4 to 2.5.Just giving you my thought.
Look to fade a team off a huge upset win(Toronto beat Clev),+2 Memphis.Look to play on a team after an emberassing home loss(Memphis whooped by Detroit)+3 for Memphis....Toronto has been a fade on Fridays for the past couple years and I will continue it this year,for whatever reason they struggle on Fridays....I willl take Memphis outright and see it has dropped already from opening # of 4 to 2.5.Just giving you my thought.
i'll sleep on it:shrug:
Ok, now that you got the sleep, give it to me. I'm going to go round 2 with the capping this afternoon and take into account some overnight moves.
I wonder how Rips's status plays with the numbers. This DET team has been so good for so long. I need to file that away and remember that those teams are long gone. I too was intrigued by the two possessions. I'll try to add more after I recapp some of these games this afternoon.
Ok, I love this BTW and will run the numbers against these theories.
Please clarify a couple of things so I can query the right numbers.
"huge upset wins"? Dogs of 3+ or 6+?
embarrassing home loss? 10+ I assume
Thank you for this. I'll post my findings. Just to be fair, I'll run the queries for the last 3 seasons. As you well know, I love playing trends this early in the season.
