NBA FRI 103009 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

Home Dogs on FRI

Home Dogs on FRI

team and season>2005 and day=Friday and site=home and line>0

Last 3 seasons: Friday home dogs. I didn't distinguish how much of a home dog so if the game tipped with the home team getting a single point, they are dogs.

crap, let me change browsers. it's not posting correctly

 

[axp59]

Dogs of 6+.

thank you sir. BRB

 

[LookKaPyPy]

I'd beware of this Pistons team (homer warning). They haven't found their style and identity yet and in such cases (especially with new coach) teams will turn to old ways that have been proven to work before. In this case it's the leadership of Rip and the good ol' defense. As the season progresses I expect Pistons to open up and play more to the offensive talent they have (which is also lacking on the D), but this soon I think they still have the discipline and focus on the play without the ball.
Add to that scoring/assissting abilities of all the guards and there is a solid chance Pistons get away with this one late in the game.

On the other hand, if Rip is unable to play, the lack of his leadership will probably affect the team play alot. Without him everything falls on the Stuckey (the coach is no guru-like Phil Jackson) and he's too young for it atm.

 

[eeeerock]

Yeah if they are + anything they are a dog,even if it is only 1.

 

[JBrilman]

Had Toronto pegged yesterday at -4 it is a definite play for me.

Also like Bos/Chi Under 187

 

[CUBBOY69]

feels good to have a winning night

feels good to have a winning night

played u200 in port/den game ....had u 43.5 in cfb game and tailed ax on bulls under...thanks for that one was leaning over in that one ..hope to keep it going....gl guys lets find a couple winners tonight..:0corn

 

[axp59]

Home dogs on FRI last 3 seasons

Home dogs on FRI last 3 seasons

season>2005 and day=Friday and site=home and line>0

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 191pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=255 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 71pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3474" width=95><COL style="WIDTH: 72pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3510" width=96><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=64>SU:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=95>83-147 (-3.0)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 72pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=96></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>ATS:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">108-113-9 (1.3)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">avg line: 4.4</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>O/U:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">106-122-2 (0.9)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">avg total: 197.9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

team= Grizzlies and season>2005 and day=Friday and site=home and line>0

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 191pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=255 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 71pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3474" width=95><COL style="WIDTH: 72pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3510" width=96><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=64>SU:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=95>6-8 (-4.2)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 72pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=96></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>ATS:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">7-7-0 (0.6)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">avg line: 4.8</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>O/U:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">3-11-0 (-5.8)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">avg total: 202.9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[axp59]

Also like Bos/Chi Under 187

WHATTTTTT????

 

[Bennymac17]

O/187 kind of scares me. Still working on a solid reason to back my fear...

 

[axp59]

L3: upset winners (dogs of 6 or more) the previous game

L3: upset winners (dogs of 6 or more) the previous game

two actually qualify here for today

TOR and WAS were both 6+ dogs the previous game and won outright. For the next game these teams are:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 191pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=255 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 71pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3474" width=95><COL style="WIDTH: 72pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3510" width=96><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=64>SU:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=95>137-217 (-3.4)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 72pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=96></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>ATS:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">169-177-8 (-0.4)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">avg line: 3.0</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>O/U:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">173-173-8 (-0.2)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">avg total: 198.6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[axp59]

O/187 kind of scares me. Still working on a solid reason to back my fear...

You know I'm th last guy touting an over on anything. Something about the Bulls and the feeling I'm getting about the C's having to prove something because of last year. Run with the Bulls I say and this thing goes over. Thoughts?

 

[Bennymac17]

Taken from another site...

When ANY NBA Team played as a 9.5 to 12 Road Underdog - playing on Friday - After a non division game - Coming off a 1 ATS win - Coming off 1 under

O/U:- 3-14-0

When BOSTON team played as a -9.5 to -12.0 Home Favorite - playing on Friday - After a non division game - Scored 90 or more points FOR in their last game

O/U:- 6-8-1

When BOSTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 3 years - Scored 90 or more points FOR in their last game - Coming off a 20 or more point win

O/U:- 5-9-1

While these numbers aren't too convincing at all, I still think we might be in for a defensive game tonight. The celtics should dominate the bulls down low, and I really can't see the Bulls throwing up more then 85. What do you guys think?

 

[Bennymac17]

Oh I would never think that at all. I love the conversation in this thread. While I could be way off base (and probably am) I think these two teams may put a little fight on the defensive side.

 

[axp59]

L3: after embarrassing home loss of 10 or more

L3: after embarrassing home loss of 10 or more

season>2005 and p:site=home and p:L and p:margin<=-10

Memphis and Dallas qualify tonight. After such an event the teams are:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 191pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=255 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 71pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3474" width=95><COL style="WIDTH: 72pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3510" width=96><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=64>SU:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=95>254-362 (-2.5)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 72pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=96></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>ATS:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">305-301-10 (0.0)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">avg line: 2.6</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>O/U:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">308-298-10 (1.4)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">avg total: 197.7</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[eeeerock]

Thanks for that follow up info/your findings.

 

[axp59]

While I could be way off base (and probably am)

Sir, you are not. Thank you for your insight.

 

[axp59]

Thanks for that follow up info/your findings.

Not a problem brother. I love this stuff. Thank you for pointing those out. If you have a trend you are interested in, please let me know and I will run them for you given I have time away from my own capping of course.

 

[CUBBOY69]

ax

ax

im looking at another over in the knicks/cats game its sitting at 194.5 right now i think the cats are going to get caught up in running with the knicks and we all know the knicks dont like defense...what do you think ???

 

[CUBBOY69]

STILL UNABLE TO LOG IN UNDER MY OLD ACCT

STILL UNABLE TO LOG IN UNDER MY OLD ACCT

ANYONE KNOW WHY THIS WOULD BE HAD TO OPEN A NEW ONE WAS CUBBOY..NOW IM CUBBOY69

 

[axp59]

While these numbers aren't too convincing at all, I still think we might be in for a defensive game tonight. The celtics should dominate the bulls down low, and I really can't see the Bulls throwing up more then 85. What do you guys think?

To follow up my other comment. I too think the Bulls feel they have something to prove, that last year's success in the Post-season against the C's was no fluke. These guys are going to come out like gangbusters. :box2:

Don't you guys love the NBA. Here we are trying to make an honest living off a sport that's FIXED. :thefinger that's for the commish.