MISC WEEK 13 WRITE-UPS

[Senor Capper]

This one is a good read.....


unless your JACK :00x12


The Ravens? Sunday night win over the Big Ben-less Steelers comes with a price, and the bill collector is stationed in Green Bay this week.
Aside from Baltimore?s 1-4 SU and ATS record after the Steelers when facing winning teams, they face the ?Mike Tomlin? factor head-on in
this fray. That?s because teams are 9-16 SU and 6-19 ATS in games after facing Tomlin?s troops, including 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS for AFC North
teams. Amazingly, like Houston, the Packers are 7-1 in their last eight games in The Stats, with the only loss by four yards to the Vikings. The
Cheeseheads are also 9-1 ATS in December home games with a .500 or greater record when off back-to-back wins. The clincher comes from our
database as it tells us to:

Play On any Monday night non-division homedog or favorite of five or less points off a road win. That?s because these teams are 20-7 SU and ATS, including 13-2 SU and ATS if they are off a win of more than seven points.

You know what to do in this Cheese fondue special. :142smilie

GREEN BAY over Baltimore by 14

 

[MadJack]

This one is a good read.....


unless your JACK :00x12


The Ravens? Sunday night win over the Big Ben-less Steelers comes with a price, and the bill collector is stationed in Green Bay this week.
Aside from Baltimore?s 1-4 SU and ATS record after the Steelers when facing winning teams, they face the ?Mike Tomlin? factor head-on in
this fray. That?s because teams are 9-16 SU and 6-19 ATS in games after facing Tomlin?s troops, including 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS for AFC North
teams. Amazingly, like Houston, the Packers are 7-1 in their last eight games in The Stats, with the only loss by four yards to the Vikings. The
Cheeseheads are also 9-1 ATS in December home games with a .500 or greater record when off back-to-back wins. The clincher comes from our
database as it tells us to:

Play On any Monday night non-division homedog or favorite of five or less points off a road win. That?s because these teams are 20-7 SU and ATS, including 13-2 SU and ATS if they are off a win of more than seven points.

You know what to do in this Cheese fondue special. :142smilie

GREEN BAY over Baltimore by 14

:nono: :nono:

 

[Senor Capper]

:ban:


:box2: :box2: :box2: :box2:


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GREEN BAY - 3 over Baltimore

Monday Night- Green Bay has won 3 straight and now controls an NFC Wild Card at 7-4. Baltimore's OT win over Pittsburgh last week got the Ravens to 6-5 and in contention for an AFC Wild Card, making this a game with significant Playoff implications. Baltimore has struggled on offense over the past month, failing to top 20 points in any of their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in 5 of their first 7. The Packers have done a better job of protecting QB Rodgers the past two weeks, allowing just 3 sacks after giving up 41 in their first 9 games. Green Bay has the NFL's top ranked defense, allowing just 282 yards per game while also having the # 6 offense. The Packers also lead the league by having lost just 10 turnovers all season and the defense is # 2 in takeaways. Baltimore struggled more than expected last week in their physical OT win over Pittsburgh. And this season teams are just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 ATS after playing the Steelers with 5 of the losses by double digits.

Green Bay wins 27-17.

 

[Senor Capper]

SEATTLE Pick 'em over San Francisco -

Seattle is in a favorable situation, returning home following a 3 game road trip, capped by a satisfying win over lowly St Louis. It was the Seahawks' first road win of the season. They are 3-2 at home and seek to avenge a 23-10 week two loss at San Francisco. The 49ers have won just oncen 5 road games and that came in week one at Arizona.
They were competitive in 3 of the losses but were unable to hold second half leads. The 49ers have faint Wild Card hopes at 5-6 but a Seattle win would have the teams tied with 5-7 records. When healthy Seattle has the much better offense and the 'Hawks are as healthy now as they've been most of the season. These teams are quite similar in many statistical categories. Neither team has been able to rush the ball well on offense. Both teams are pretty average defensively. Seattle does have a solid QB edge with Hasselbeck vs Smith and that should be the difference between two evenly matched teams. Seattle wins 27-20.

 

[Senor Capper]

CINCINNATI - 13 over Detroit -

The Bengals are closing in on a Divisional title but only one of their 8 wins has been by more than 10 points. Conversely, 7 of Detroit's 9 losses have been by at least a dozen points so something must give. Cincinnati has held their last 7 foes to under 100 yards rushing and will face a rookie QB in Detroit's Stafford. The Lions are - 7 in turnover margin over their last 4 games and barely showed up in their Turkey Day home loss to Green Bay.
Cincinnati's been winning with defense. The turnaround began last season. Despite starting 0-8they did not quit and ended the season with 3straight wins. Although they came against a trio of weak teams, Cincy allowed just 19 total points, a sign that pointed to potential improvement in 2009. Now Cincinnati's allowed the fewest points in the NFL through 11 games. After last week's dull effort vs. Cleveland, expect a much better showing from the offense.
Cincinnati wins handily,
27-6.

 

[Senor Capper]

CHICAGO - 9 over St Louis -

The 1-10 Rams failed to take advantage of a very favorable situation last week when they fell at home to Seattle, a team that had been badly outplayed in losing all 5 of their previous road games. Following a Bye and 3 straight home games the Rams now take to the road for the first time in over a month. Chicago's season is rapidly deteriorating and at 4-7 their Playoff hopes are all but gone following a 3-1 start. QB Cutler has failed to live up to billing and the running game has been a bust. The Rams are now being led by backup QB Boller who had an undistinguished career in Baltimore. The Bears have played a tough schedule and against teams similar to the Rams they routed Detroit and Cleveland by a combined 78-30. Although the Rams' lone win came on the road in Detroit and they were competitive in losses at both Washington and Jacksonville, St Louis was shut out in losses at Seattle and San Francisco, teams bpretty much on a par with the Bears. It may not be pretty but it should be a convincing win.
Chicago wins 27-13.

 

[Senor Capper]

SAN DIEGO at CLEVELAND


The Chargers have won 6 straight by a 31-14 margin, are getting healthier (added Jon Runyan LW for RT) & playing with urgency for the #2 seed in the AFC. CLE has been held to under 200 yds in 8 games & lost NT Rogers (leg) for the year vs CIN. They could be without 6 def starters from 4 Wks ago. PP calls for SD to dominate here (359-255) vs a depleted CLE team that is ready for the season to end.

CHARGERS 31 BROWNS 12

 

[Senor Capper]

SF at Seattle


Neither of these two teams are anything more than average. At times each can show flashes, but the consistency to perform is not there. However in this game we do expect a couple of things to work in our favor. First is the simple notion of home field advantage. Seattle has suffered through significant injuries the past two seasons, so the overall strength of this home field has been masked. Last season they lost five straight as the team and were decimated with injury loss. Yet in reality this is one of the more difficult stadiums for visiting teams. Outside of that stretch the Seahawks are 45-16 straight up at home since 2002. This season they have outscored the opposition 123-72 on their home field. After a stretch of three consecutive road games we expect Seattle to be primed and ready for a solid effort. Secondly while San Francisco is off a win, they continue to fail to live up to the expectations created by their 3-1 start. Dropping four straight on the road the running game has been decidedly mediocre and overall the offense has struggled to find a rhythm.

The line is short and we?ll back Seattle at home.

 

[Senor Capper]

Tennessee over *Indianapolis by 11

There will be some attention on this matchup as Indianapolis goes for its 21st straight regular-season victory,which would tie New England?s record. But this game really doesn?t count for much as far as 2009 goes for the Colts. Indianapolis already has sewn up the AFC South Division, while holding a bulging three-game lead for home-field throughout the playoffs.The win streak is nice, but the Colts are more concerned about being in the best shape to win the Super Bowl. Credit goes to the Colts for winning each week, but these victories haven?t been masterpieces. No, we?re not being picky either.The Colts have won the past five times by a combined 18 points.They trailed in the final quarter during each of these wins.The Colts have multiple injuries on defense. Star pass rusher Dwight Freeney (check status) didn?t play last Sunday. The secondary is minus Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders, cornerback Marlin Jackson and cornerback Kelvin Hayden (check status). Tennessee opened 0-6. A quarterback switch to Vince Young has paved the way for the Titans to turn their season around. They?ve won five in a row. Chris Johnson has emerged as the best running back in football. He?s on pace to rush for 2,024 yards. He?s averaged better than 125 yards rushing in six straight games, only the third back to accomplish that feat.Young is playing his best, too.The Titans have won nine in a row with Young starting.Young has greatly improved his accuracy and decision-making. He?s burned defenses keying on Johnson. The Titans have revenge from a 31-9 loss to the Colts in Week 5 when their secondary was banged-up. Expect Jeff Fisher to be treating this game as Tennessee?s Super Bowl. :toast:

TENNESSEE 31-20.

 

[Senor Capper]

Philadelphia over *Atlanta by 15

Philadelphia over *Atlanta by 15 Michael Vick makes his return to Atlanta.That?s just one of many subplots, which finds Atlanta in a vulnerable state. The Falcons have won 12 of 13 times at the Georgia Dome since Mike Smith came on the scene as head coach.They are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS at home this season. But they are in trouble here. Philadelphia travels well.The Eagles have covered 15 of their last 21 road contests. The Eagles could be down a couple of weapons if Brian Westbrook (check status) and big-play receiver and returner DeSean Jackson (check status) are out.The Falcons,however, are in far worse shape physically.They lost their quarterback, Matt Ryan, to a toe injury early in last week?s narrow win against Tampa Bay. Chris Redman is a decent backup, but he?s far from being in Donovan McNabb?s class. Look for McNabb to go after the Falcons? chronic weakness at left corner.McNabb has been sacked 24 times, already one more than last year.The Falcons, though, don?t general much pass rush. John Abraham is their best pass rusher and he?s having a disappointing season. The Falcons probably rushed star running back Michael Turner back into the lineup too soon after he missed just one game with a high ankle sprain. He re-injured the ankle last week. The Falcons? offensive line also took a hit losing several linemen. Not helping matters is the erratic placekicking of Jason Elam.He?s missed five field goals in the last
five weeks. It?s become a huge problem area for the Falcons. Even before All of these key injuries, the Falcons weren?t playing well having lost four
of their past six games.Their only wins during this entire span were against Washington and Tampa Bay, teams with a combined record of 4-18.

PHILADELPHIA 31-16.

 

[Senor Capper]

@Indianapolis (-7) over Tennessee



Why is this line so low? The Colts are 11-0 and Peyton Manning is drinking from the fountain of youth. The Colts have now won 20 regular season games in a row dating back to the middle of the 2008 season. Indy is outscoring their opponents by nearly 11 points per game. The Titans have been outscored by 5.5 points per game. Add in 3 points for home field advantage and Indy could be favored by 19.5 points. No, I don't believe the Colts should win this game by 20 points. Obviously the Titans are a lot better than we thought they were 6 weeks ago. The switch to Vince Young at quarterback has produced a more conservative - at least until last Sunday - and effective offense that relies on star RB Chris Johnson (1396 yards at 6.4 ypr) and safe passes that aren't likely to get picked off. Young has thrown just 2 interceptions in 132 attempts. The Titans' defense, meanwhile, was horrible in the games that top CB Cortland Finnegan missed, but the secondary has been strong since Finnegan's return in week 8, which coincides with the current win streak. Perhaps most appropriate for this game, I have a negative 40-74 ATS system that applies to Tennessee; it plays against non-elite teams on an extended winning streak. On the statistical side I have a 173-113 ATS matchup indicator on Indy. This system is 9-7 in 2009 and 60% out of sample. The Colts are also favored by a 62-28 ATS scheduling situation involving home teams coming off a multiple game road trip. Under Tony Dungy the Colts would begin to coast near the end of the season. Maybe first year HC Jim Caldwell will take the foot off the gas pedal just a bit now that Indy has clinched the AFC North title and own a 3 game lead over Cincinnati and San Diego in the race for home field advantage thru the conference playoffs. But Caldwell said all the right things in the Monday presser. It looks like Indy willhave CB Kelvin Hayden back after four games missed with a knee problem. And since 2003 the Colts are 42-23 ATS when installed as a dog or a fave up to -10 before game 13. I'd like to see DE Dwight Freeney back too, but this line is low enough for me even if he is not. Lay the points.

Colts by 14

 

[LT21]

Senor- You have Indy on one play winning by 14 and you have Tenn on another play winning by 11? What gives?

 

[baby johnson]

Senor- You have Indy on one play winning by 14 and you have Tenn on another play winning by 11? What gives?

the write ups are NOT senor's pl;ay my friend

:00hour :00hour :mj07: :mj07:

 

[Senor Capper]

:director: not my write-ups :nono:


LOL