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  1. Smitty

    Sunday

    indy (ML) 2 units to win 2.5. this game is a toss-up, so gotta take the dog. really, any time the jets are favored, the dog is a good play. buf/hou under (40.5) 3 units. in buffalo's 3 road games, they are averaging 197 yards/game. and that includes the 292 they inexplicably put up on...
  2. Smitty

    Saturday

    northwestern (-3.5) 2 units. obviously this line is insane. but unless all 22 starters were at the bar until 4:00 AM, northwestern should win this game comfortably. sure, they are off a big win, but it's definitely not a sandwich game, as they have rutgers next. neb/nw over (59) 5 units...
  3. Smitty

    RIP John Gagliardi

    college football lost a great man today. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gagliardi if you truly love college football, do yourself a favor and read this book...
  4. Smitty

    Sunday

    trying to take it easy today after a big day yesterday. jacksonville (ML) 3 units to win 4.2. this is the first good pass defense that mahomes has seen. the first four are ranked 18th or worse. jacksonville is #3. detroit (-1) 2 units. under (49.5) 2 units. this is a huge early-season game...
  5. Smitty

    Saturday

    ecu (+10) 2 units ecu (ML) 1 unit to win 2.9. this is a good matchup for ecu. temple is struggling in the passing game. russo is completing 47% of his passes and has thrown 1 TD and 5 INTs. they rely on the ground game. ecu is 9th in the country, allowing 94.8 yards/game. northwestern...
  7. Smitty

    Sunday

    cin/atl over (51.5) 3 units. first team to 30 wins! chicago (-2.5) 2 units. i'm assuming fitzpatrick is starting. he should be good for 3 or 4 turnovers before he gets pulled. apparently he almost got pulled last week for ryan griffin (a 5th year guy out of tulane. and, yes, i had to look...
  8. Smitty

    Saturday

    Virginia (ML) 2 units to win 3.7. nc st is 3-0, but those wins are over james madison, georgia st, and marshall. virginia dominated a bad louisville team last week and i really like their chance of getting a win in raleigh today. virginia's ground game has been great so far and i think the...
  9. Smitty

    Sunday

    atlanta (-1.5) 2 units. i don't understand all the love for NO. the saints lost at home to the bucs and should have lost to the browns. minnesota (-16.5) 2 units. yeah, laying this many points in the nfl is foolish. but i'm going to keep betting against buffalo until they give me a reason...
  10. Smitty

    Saturday

    running late. just the noon games for now. iowa st (-19.5) 2 units. this line baffles me. akron is coming off a win at northwestern. iowa st opened with losses against iowa and oklahoma and they have tcu next week (followed by 2 more ranked conference opponents). hard to believe they'll be...
  11. Smitty

    Sunday

    ah, week two in the nfl. the best week to make money because everybody overreacts to week one. i keep saying that, one of these years, i'm going to get my ass handed to me on week two. probably this year, because i'm finally increasing my plays this week. pittsburgh (-4) 4 units. the...
  13. Smitty

    Saturday

    syracuse (ML) 2 units to win 2.8. syr/fsu over (69.5) 3 units. gotta believe syracuse has had this one circled since last year. dungey missed most of the first half after breaking his foot, and yet he still threw for 278 yards and ran for another 109 in a 3-point loss. the noles struggled...
  14. Smitty

    Sunday

    here we go... Houston (+6.5) 2 units Houston (ML) 1 unit to win 2.2. it's time for the pats to come back down to earth. jj watt will "accidentally" eat the pretty dog on his 4th sack. Cincinnati (Pk) 2 units. the colts are awful, and it's hard to believe luck will have much impact just yet...
  15. Smitty

    St. Paddy's Day

    some food for thought... 4 years ago, villanova was a #2 seed, laying 4 in the second round, and lost to uconn. 3 years ago, villanova was a #1 seed, laying 9.5 against nc st in the second round, and lost. last year, villanova was a #1 seed, laying 5 to wisconsin in the second round, and lost...
  16. Smitty

    NC Game

    georgia (ML) 2 units to win 3.2. i don't like georgia as much as i did in the rose bowl, and we all saw what an easy win that was. :) but there are a number of reasons to like georgia tonight. for one thing, i've been very impressed with fromm. i remember his first start at nd. the kid...
  17. Smitty

    Rose Bowl

    georgia (-3) 3 units. love georgia in this game, despite the freshman qb. playing on grass should really help their style of play (unless the rose bowl put down field turf at some point, but that seems heretical). anyway, as a general rule, i always take the good defense against the good...
  19. Smitty

    Monday Bowl Games

    full disclosure... i think i've been profitable on new years day maybe once in the last ten years. Outback Bowl Pass... is what i should do. pretty sure i've been on the wrong side of 26 straight outback bowls. fuck it, let's go for 27. michigan (-8.5) 1 unit. this line is kinda nuts, so...
  20. Smitty

    Saturday Bowl Games

    Taxslayer Bowl miss st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.3. no, i don't love the bulldogs today, especially without fitzgerald. this is just an anti-louisville play. here's a list of all the cardinals' wins this year: purdue north carolina kent st murray st florida st virginia syracuse kentucky sure...
  21. Smitty

    Friday Bowl Games

    full disclosure. i am on one of my patented runs where i can't hit a bet to save my life. i've been on the wrong side for 11 straight bowl games. i mean, that's impressive. so i offer these plays as a PSA. if you do not fade these, you shall lose. Belk Bowl wake (-4) 2 units. i love this...
  22. Smitty

    Saturday 12/23

    Birmingham Bowl Texas Tech (ML) 2 units to win 2.2. no doubt south florida is the better team. but how motivated are they going to be to play a 6-6 texas tech team after losing what was basically their super bowl against UCF? i think the red raiders are going to light up a suspect defense...
  23. Smitty

    December 16 Bowl Games

    i haven't posted any plays this year, but i can't pass up bowl season. although, admittedly, i've had a pretty shitty year on college football. New Orleans Bowl troy (-6.5) 2 units. this old sun belt matchup leads off our bowl season. hands down, the difference here is the defenses. troy...
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