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  1. Smitty

    St. Paddy's Day

    some food for thought... 4 years ago, villanova was a #2 seed, laying 4 in the second round, and lost to uconn. 3 years ago, villanova was a #1 seed, laying 9.5 against nc st in the second round, and lost. last year, villanova was a #1 seed, laying 5 to wisconsin in the second round, and lost...
  2. Smitty

    NC Game

    georgia (ML) 2 units to win 3.2. i don't like georgia as much as i did in the rose bowl, and we all saw what an easy win that was. :) but there are a number of reasons to like georgia tonight. for one thing, i've been very impressed with fromm. i remember his first start at nd. the kid...
  3. Smitty

    Rose Bowl

    georgia (-3) 3 units. love georgia in this game, despite the freshman qb. playing on grass should really help their style of play (unless the rose bowl put down field turf at some point, but that seems heretical). anyway, as a general rule, i always take the good defense against the good...
  4. Smitty

    Monday Bowl Games

    full disclosure... i think i've been profitable on new years day maybe once in the last ten years. Outback Bowl Pass... is what i should do. pretty sure i've been on the wrong side of 26 straight outback bowls. fuck it, let's go for 27. michigan (-8.5) 1 unit. this line is kinda nuts, so...
  5. Smitty

    Saturday Bowl Games

    Taxslayer Bowl miss st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.3. no, i don't love the bulldogs today, especially without fitzgerald. this is just an anti-louisville play. here's a list of all the cardinals' wins this year: purdue north carolina kent st murray st florida st virginia syracuse kentucky sure...
  7. Smitty

    Friday Bowl Games

    full disclosure. i am on one of my patented runs where i can't hit a bet to save my life. i've been on the wrong side for 11 straight bowl games. i mean, that's impressive. so i offer these plays as a PSA. if you do not fade these, you shall lose. Belk Bowl wake (-4) 2 units. i love this...
  8. Smitty

    Saturday 12/23

    Birmingham Bowl Texas Tech (ML) 2 units to win 2.2. no doubt south florida is the better team. but how motivated are they going to be to play a 6-6 texas tech team after losing what was basically their super bowl against UCF? i think the red raiders are going to light up a suspect defense...
  9. Smitty

    December 16 Bowl Games

    i haven't posted any plays this year, but i can't pass up bowl season. although, admittedly, i've had a pretty shitty year on college football. New Orleans Bowl troy (-6.5) 2 units. this old sun belt matchup leads off our bowl season. hands down, the difference here is the defenses. troy...
  10. Smitty

    2nd Half

    atlanta (+4.5) 3 units. this is the true test of belichick's genius. their only chance to win is to bring in garoppolo. i'm guessing he won't do it, and the falcons don't even have to pretend to respect the run game now. they'll be in brady's face every play. i don't think brady has hit a...
  11. Smitty

    Super Bowl

    just a few thoughts on the game. and here's a link to bill barnwell's write-up, which i think is a must-read every year. hard for me to imagine anyone breaking down the game better than this...
  13. Smitty

    Saturday

    houston (-4) 1 unit. hard to love either side here. obviously the raiders' success is due primarily to carr. i wouldn't be shocked if cook turns into an ok qb some day, but it ain't gonna happen today, against this defense that allows the 2nd fewest passing yards in the league. on the other...
  14. Smitty

    Monday Bowl Games

    First, a word to the wise. Fade these plays. i think i've started the new year with a good day of bowl games roughly once in the last 10 years. Outback Bowl iowa (ML) 3 units to win 3.3. most of my bets tend to be against a team more than they are on a team. and i'm betting against florida...
  15. Smitty

    Sunday

    wrapping up a shitty nfl season.... tennessee (-3) 3 units. tom savage. titans should only need 2 safeties to cover this spread. jacksonville (ML) 2 units to win 4. had a feeling the jags would improve without bradley. they're used to having nothing to play for this late in the season...
  16. Smitty

    Saturday Bowl Games

    Citrus Bowl lsu (-3) 2 units. i'm going to start with a really scary question.... is ANYONE on louisville? crap. well, we'll all go down together. this is the time of year i normally can't pick a bowl game correctly to save my life. hopefully i won't give away ALL my profits. anyway, lsu...
  17. Smitty

    Alamo Bowl

    colorado (-3) 3 units. i'll start with my concerns that are keeping this from being an even bigger play. mike macintyre has never coached in a bowl game. colorado may have a "hangover" from the pac 12 championship game. and the game is on turf, which should help ok st's spread offense. all...
  19. Smitty

    Wednesday Bowl Games

    Russell Athletic Bowl wvu (ML) 3 units to win 4.8. purely a gut feeling. IF west virginia's defense comes to play, i love them to shut down kaaya. miami's offense should be a piece of cake after facing big 12 offenses all season.
  20. Smitty

    Monday Bowl Games

    Holiday Bowl minnesota (+8.5) 3 units. minnesota (ML) 1 unit to win 2.8. i'm probably overthinking this one. if not for the suspensions and the threatened boycott, i would have loved wazzou in this game. but all that crap makes it WAY too easy to take the cougars now. i have a strange...
  21. Smitty

    Monday Bowl Games

    St. Petersburg Bowl Over (58) 2 units. Hard to imagine the bulldogs' defense getting fired up for this game. I think they're going to give up a surprising amount of points today. On the other side of the ball, even an uninspired miss st offense should damn near be able to score at will...
  22. Smitty

    Sunday

    miami/buffalo under (42.5) 2 units. old fashioned defensive struggle in this one. tampa bay (ML) 2 units to win 3.2. tampa has been better on the road, and their pass defense has been terrific lately, especially against the saints 2 weeks ago, as they held them to 11 points.
  23. Smitty

    Hawai'i Bowl

    now that i'm an expert on hawai'i, i should nail this one... mtsu (-6.5) 1 unit. shouldn't matter who starts at qb for the blue raiders. hawai'i was 1-5 ATS at home this year. over (73) 3 units. hawai'i played 2 non-conference home games this year. total points in each: 77 vs tennessee...
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