ReliaQuest bowl
Kinda nice, almost nobody sitting this one out. Iowa is expecting TJ Hall back. He's their best CB and missed their last 2 games. Vanderbilt is missing the 2nd-biggest piece of their offense. TE Stowers is out. He is Pavia's security blanket.
I'll go through the #s quickly, but it feels like a waste of time. All 4 bowl games today will probably just come down to which team gives a fuck.
Iowa - we all know what the Hawkeyes do. 1st down run, 2nd down run, 3rd down pass. Old school. Only 5 teams had fewer passing yards/game than Iowa, and two of them are service academies. RB Kamari Moulton had a solid, if unspectacular year, averaging 5.0 yards/rush. Backup Jaziun Patterson averaged 5.2. QB Gronowski is their 2nd-leading rusher, and he averages 5.5 yards/carry. Gronowski put up the passing #s you'd expect from an Iowa QB... he completed 63% with 8 TDs and 6 INTs and averaged 6.4 yards/att. Iowa did not have a receiver with more than 22 catches this year. Their leading receiver is, of course, a TE. DJ Vonnahme averaged 13.1 yards/catch. Solid # for a TE, but well short of the 17 yards/catch that Smitty averaged in his college career. Just saying. Smitty > Vonnahme. Alright, before this train goes completely off the rails... Vandy's defense. Very solid against the run, allowing 3.6 yards/rush (28th in the country). They are, however, vulnerable to the pass, giving up 7 yards/att (66th). Luckily for them, they are playing Iowa.
We're also pretty familiar with Vanderbilt's offense. It's Pavia. What a season. He's a better-throwing version of Haynes King. He completed 71% (!), averaged 9.4 yards/att (!), while throwing 27 TDs and 8 INTs. You may have heard that he can run, too. He is their leading rusher by 266 yards. He averaged 6.9 yards/rush. He probably was robbed of the Heisman. It's supposed to go to the best player, not just the QB on the best team. Rumor has it that Pavia is seeking a 17th year of eligibility. He's going to keep playing until they give him that trophy, dammit. RB Sedrick Alexander is no slouch, averaging 5.5 yards/carry. Hey, guess what? Iowa's defense is solid. They allow 3.5 yards/rush (25th in the country) and 5.7 yards/att (8th). An oddity that I noticed... only 6 Hawkeyes recorded a sack this year. And 17 of their 21 sacks came from 3 players (Llewellyn, Hurkett, and Graves).
Iowa has played an SEC team in a bowl game the last 4 years. The first 2 were against UK, so that barely counts. Iowa lost the last 2, giving up 35 and 27 points.
Of course it really comes down to... is Vandy focused on this game? They were in the conversation for the playoffs. And now they're in Tampa, playing the boring ol' Iowa Hawkeyes. Here's the theory I'm going with and, boy, could I be very wrong. I think Pavia is the kind of guy who's going to feed off the hate he received after his stupid comment. I think it's going to be Diego Pavia against the world, and he's going to put this team on his shoulders one last time.
One more thing I noticed. In Iowa's last 3 bowl games, they've scored a TOTAL of 3 points in the second half.
Alright, full disclosure... I'm probably roughly 0-80 on Iowa bowl games.
Vanderbilt (-5.5) 4 units
1H Under (22.5) 2 to win 2.1
Iowa 2H TT Under (9.5) 4 to win 4.2 (probably stupid. it would be smarter to see how the game is playing out. but like i said before... it's only money.)
One more crazy thing I just noticed on DK... and this has me asking what the fuck am I missing... you can get a better price on the 1H under 22.5 than under 21.5. Now, sure, it's very unlikely the half will end on 22 points. But this is still bizarre, right?
Kinda nice, almost nobody sitting this one out. Iowa is expecting TJ Hall back. He's their best CB and missed their last 2 games. Vanderbilt is missing the 2nd-biggest piece of their offense. TE Stowers is out. He is Pavia's security blanket.
I'll go through the #s quickly, but it feels like a waste of time. All 4 bowl games today will probably just come down to which team gives a fuck.
Iowa - we all know what the Hawkeyes do. 1st down run, 2nd down run, 3rd down pass. Old school. Only 5 teams had fewer passing yards/game than Iowa, and two of them are service academies. RB Kamari Moulton had a solid, if unspectacular year, averaging 5.0 yards/rush. Backup Jaziun Patterson averaged 5.2. QB Gronowski is their 2nd-leading rusher, and he averages 5.5 yards/carry. Gronowski put up the passing #s you'd expect from an Iowa QB... he completed 63% with 8 TDs and 6 INTs and averaged 6.4 yards/att. Iowa did not have a receiver with more than 22 catches this year. Their leading receiver is, of course, a TE. DJ Vonnahme averaged 13.1 yards/catch. Solid # for a TE, but well short of the 17 yards/catch that Smitty averaged in his college career. Just saying. Smitty > Vonnahme. Alright, before this train goes completely off the rails... Vandy's defense. Very solid against the run, allowing 3.6 yards/rush (28th in the country). They are, however, vulnerable to the pass, giving up 7 yards/att (66th). Luckily for them, they are playing Iowa.
We're also pretty familiar with Vanderbilt's offense. It's Pavia. What a season. He's a better-throwing version of Haynes King. He completed 71% (!), averaged 9.4 yards/att (!), while throwing 27 TDs and 8 INTs. You may have heard that he can run, too. He is their leading rusher by 266 yards. He averaged 6.9 yards/rush. He probably was robbed of the Heisman. It's supposed to go to the best player, not just the QB on the best team. Rumor has it that Pavia is seeking a 17th year of eligibility. He's going to keep playing until they give him that trophy, dammit. RB Sedrick Alexander is no slouch, averaging 5.5 yards/carry. Hey, guess what? Iowa's defense is solid. They allow 3.5 yards/rush (25th in the country) and 5.7 yards/att (8th). An oddity that I noticed... only 6 Hawkeyes recorded a sack this year. And 17 of their 21 sacks came from 3 players (Llewellyn, Hurkett, and Graves).
Iowa has played an SEC team in a bowl game the last 4 years. The first 2 were against UK, so that barely counts. Iowa lost the last 2, giving up 35 and 27 points.
Of course it really comes down to... is Vandy focused on this game? They were in the conversation for the playoffs. And now they're in Tampa, playing the boring ol' Iowa Hawkeyes. Here's the theory I'm going with and, boy, could I be very wrong. I think Pavia is the kind of guy who's going to feed off the hate he received after his stupid comment. I think it's going to be Diego Pavia against the world, and he's going to put this team on his shoulders one last time.
One more thing I noticed. In Iowa's last 3 bowl games, they've scored a TOTAL of 3 points in the second half.
Alright, full disclosure... I'm probably roughly 0-80 on Iowa bowl games.
Vanderbilt (-5.5) 4 units
1H Under (22.5) 2 to win 2.1
Iowa 2H TT Under (9.5) 4 to win 4.2 (probably stupid. it would be smarter to see how the game is playing out. but like i said before... it's only money.)
One more crazy thing I just noticed on DK... and this has me asking what the fuck am I missing... you can get a better price on the 1H under 22.5 than under 21.5. Now, sure, it's very unlikely the half will end on 22 points. But this is still bizarre, right?
