ut-chattanooga
wake forest
deacs had a world of trouble against the southern conference two years ago in tampa when east tennessee state took them to the wire before losing 76-73. would like to think prosser and company will have learned their lesson, but im not real sure. wake has really been lame in the first round of the dance under skip. won 79-78 over #13 seed vcu last year, won 76-73 over #15 seed etsu in '03, and won 83-74 over #10 seed pepperdine in '02. still think deacs win it all, but dont like the way they go through the motions in the first round. wouldnt be a huge surprise to see utc keep this one around 10 or 12.
creighton
west virginia
talk about a matchup of two teams that shoot way, way too many 3s. west virginia has attempted 1716 field goals this year. 795 of 'em have been from behind the arc (46.3%). creighton has attempted 1770 field goals this year, and 687 of 'em have been from behind the arc (38.8%). just for some perspective, a normal % is somewhere around 28%-34%. wvu has attempted more 3s than free throws this year -- 795 against just 517. creighton's split is 687 against 647. to some, this might be pointless esoterica. but i think this game is impossible to cap for the reasons above. neither team gets the ball inside. neither team draws fouls and gets to the line consistently. and both teams run hot and cold from behind the arc. creighton is a little more balanced, but thats just relatively speaking because they are awfully perimeter-oriented themselves. this is truly a coinflip game where it will come down to who is knocking down their 3s. both teams played outstanding basketball in their respective conference tourneys. gut feeling says creighton will win this one.
uw-milwaukee
alabama
love this draw for the panthers and fully expect them to win outright. not gonna try to twist the numbers and make alabama out to be a terrible team -- theyre not. but i just dont think the average fan realizes how good uwm is. they completely outclassed everyone in the horizon league this season but their narrow escape against detroit in the conference championship game is (unfortunately) what sticks in a lot of minds. thats fine with me. that struggle was expected because perry watson's teams are always tough mf'ers and never an easy out in the horizon tourney. this much i know -- uwm is friggin good. and theyre every bit as good as alabama on a neutral floor. they are one of the few midmajors that can match the size, athleticism, and shooting of the power conferences. bama's earnest shelton has knocked down 40% of his 3s and 89 overall. milwaukee can match that with ed mccants at 37% and 94 overall. panthers take care of the ball well, and they can compete on the glass. they could be playing this game on any neutral court and id be comfortable backing milwaukee. but here's something that i think should not be overlooked: a lot of these venues are foreign to both teams before tipoff. but milwaukee is very familiar with this arena, as they play here every season against cleveland state and were just here a few weeks ago. uwm should be familiar with the backdrop, the lighting, the tightness of the rims, and all that kind of stuff. will that be the deciding factor in the game? of course not. but at this time of year, every advantage helps, especially when it can level the playing field for the underdog. the panthers have a comfort level in the city and its very likely that the casual fan will be pulling for the horizon league team since the game is being played in a horizon league arena. this one is my strongest play of the first round.
pennsylvania
boston college
tough game to figure here. not in a hurry to go against a quaker team that has won 16 of its last 17. but almost get the feeling that boston college is gonna be one of those teams playing with a chip on its shoulder. eagles did stumble down the stretch (although id be more inclined to just say they regressed to where they should have been throughout the year) but they are still a solid team that can string together some wins. penn isnt a particularly great shooting team and i think the boston college zone will bother them. not going anywhere near this one, but think the eagles will take care of business here and not let the dog hang around long enough to think it can win.
working on the rest. will post more later.
but played milwaukee very big. and have futures all over the place on wake forest at various prices from 7/1 to 10/1 from before the year started and at various stages of the season.
wake forest
deacs had a world of trouble against the southern conference two years ago in tampa when east tennessee state took them to the wire before losing 76-73. would like to think prosser and company will have learned their lesson, but im not real sure. wake has really been lame in the first round of the dance under skip. won 79-78 over #13 seed vcu last year, won 76-73 over #15 seed etsu in '03, and won 83-74 over #10 seed pepperdine in '02. still think deacs win it all, but dont like the way they go through the motions in the first round. wouldnt be a huge surprise to see utc keep this one around 10 or 12.
creighton
west virginia
talk about a matchup of two teams that shoot way, way too many 3s. west virginia has attempted 1716 field goals this year. 795 of 'em have been from behind the arc (46.3%). creighton has attempted 1770 field goals this year, and 687 of 'em have been from behind the arc (38.8%). just for some perspective, a normal % is somewhere around 28%-34%. wvu has attempted more 3s than free throws this year -- 795 against just 517. creighton's split is 687 against 647. to some, this might be pointless esoterica. but i think this game is impossible to cap for the reasons above. neither team gets the ball inside. neither team draws fouls and gets to the line consistently. and both teams run hot and cold from behind the arc. creighton is a little more balanced, but thats just relatively speaking because they are awfully perimeter-oriented themselves. this is truly a coinflip game where it will come down to who is knocking down their 3s. both teams played outstanding basketball in their respective conference tourneys. gut feeling says creighton will win this one.
uw-milwaukee
alabama
love this draw for the panthers and fully expect them to win outright. not gonna try to twist the numbers and make alabama out to be a terrible team -- theyre not. but i just dont think the average fan realizes how good uwm is. they completely outclassed everyone in the horizon league this season but their narrow escape against detroit in the conference championship game is (unfortunately) what sticks in a lot of minds. thats fine with me. that struggle was expected because perry watson's teams are always tough mf'ers and never an easy out in the horizon tourney. this much i know -- uwm is friggin good. and theyre every bit as good as alabama on a neutral floor. they are one of the few midmajors that can match the size, athleticism, and shooting of the power conferences. bama's earnest shelton has knocked down 40% of his 3s and 89 overall. milwaukee can match that with ed mccants at 37% and 94 overall. panthers take care of the ball well, and they can compete on the glass. they could be playing this game on any neutral court and id be comfortable backing milwaukee. but here's something that i think should not be overlooked: a lot of these venues are foreign to both teams before tipoff. but milwaukee is very familiar with this arena, as they play here every season against cleveland state and were just here a few weeks ago. uwm should be familiar with the backdrop, the lighting, the tightness of the rims, and all that kind of stuff. will that be the deciding factor in the game? of course not. but at this time of year, every advantage helps, especially when it can level the playing field for the underdog. the panthers have a comfort level in the city and its very likely that the casual fan will be pulling for the horizon league team since the game is being played in a horizon league arena. this one is my strongest play of the first round.
pennsylvania
boston college
tough game to figure here. not in a hurry to go against a quaker team that has won 16 of its last 17. but almost get the feeling that boston college is gonna be one of those teams playing with a chip on its shoulder. eagles did stumble down the stretch (although id be more inclined to just say they regressed to where they should have been throughout the year) but they are still a solid team that can string together some wins. penn isnt a particularly great shooting team and i think the boston college zone will bother them. not going anywhere near this one, but think the eagles will take care of business here and not let the dog hang around long enough to think it can win.
working on the rest. will post more later.
but played milwaukee very big. and have futures all over the place on wake forest at various prices from 7/1 to 10/1 from before the year started and at various stages of the season.
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