2017 Season Thread

TLankford

Donkey
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Nov 24, 2005
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thanks for the weekly thoughts T always like to read and like that you get things out there early in the week

not disagreeing with your play but I will say that I think you are off when you talk about LSU's season being done and Orgeron being a lame duck - I believe that LSU is very excited for the rest of the year and a 9-3 season with a good bowl will be a great accomplishment imo - tons of injuries and lack of depth with a lot of freshmen playing so from here a lot of it is gravy and I think the team is set up to play their best from here on out to close it out in strong fashion - also like I mentioned in the past Orgeron is just getting started and I think the book on his LSU coaching career is long from being written - we will be able to tell a lot about things after we see how they finish the season and in his 1st recruiting cycle

again none of this has any bearing imo regarding the play but in reality LSU still has a lot to play for this year and I also think that it's a real possibility that Orgeron is around for a while and plays a part in considerable success for LSU - maybe it's just the Miles factor (as in many including myself are joyous that he is gone) but I truly believe that this program is on an upward trajectory for the 1st time in a long long time


gl with your plays


LA Burns

You may be right about Coach O having some years left, but the LSU fans I know / interact with on some CFB boards say he's at least starting next year with a bit of a short leash. Not really "in the hot seat" just he probably needs to win out to not start off next year under the microscope. Probably could help with that total actually. I think Guice and Williams should have a couple of great performances vs. a Defense that can't really stop a leaky faucet in the run game. And LSU has been prone to giving up some passing yards vs. teams with good WR corps. Appreciate the input as always :0008

Plays in so far:

I absolutely hate when people do this... and It's the biggest jinx in the history of sportsbetting but fuck it. It's the most confident I've been in a game this year...

Game of the year: Auburn - Georgia Under 47
Both teams play really really good bend-don't-break defense. Both very good at stopping the run. Both Offenses philosophy is to run first and setup play action. As mentioned before, there was only 1 offensive TD scored in last year's meeting and both teams are as good or better on defense this year, with the offenses not showing the same improvement. I could see this being a Field Goal fest with 1-2 TDs max scored by each team. I honestly wouldn't guarantee either team sees the endzone though.

LSU - Arkansas Over 55
Line is higher than I had hoped. Honestly thought it would be in the mid 40s. I think LSU should get theirs due to Run game vs. Bad run D. Hoping Arkyslaw can put up a good 17-20 points.

South Carolina -5.5 over UF
Line has dropped a couple points and I'm okay with it. Florida is a disaster. USCe isn't quite at that point yet.

Alabama -13 over MSU
Not scared by the line dropping just more confused. I haven't seen any numbers on % of tickets in vegas on different bets but off the cuff I'd say at least 65% of the bets AND money have to be on Bama. it's just a national perception thing and has been for most of Sabans run of dominance. So the line dropping 1.5 points below a key number is odd. Just gotta throw that out sometimes and say what do you think the result is gonna be... I don't see any way MSU keeps this one close.
 

TLankford

Donkey
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Nov 24, 2005
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Not a huge fan of teases and I know "they all look good" but THIS ONE actually does look pretty fucking good:

10pt Teaser / 4 games - Ties Reduce (due to the payouts going down with ties, if somehow this play goes 2-0-2 and pays out -220 for only winning 2 games and tying two - I'm calling it a push instead of a Win. If one play ties and 3 win - payout is still -115 so it will still go in the W column)

Bama -3 / TCU +17 / Wisconsin -2 / Texas A&M -8

Bama has been discussed why I like them
TCU that's a lot of points for a pretty good squad
Wisconsin - let down game for Iowa and they historically play better at home so this being at UW I like
A&M isn't as bad as their record looks and it's New Mexico. Sumlin better hope they win more convincingly than 8 points
 

TLankford

Donkey
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Nov 24, 2005
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Took a week off after having a rough one 1-4

Did win a lot of money on Auburn 1H +3 2H +5 and +210 moneyline last weekend but honestly being an auburn fan and posting "I"m loading up on my team in a rivalry game" holds as much water as a bottle cap so didn't write up a homer paragraph on the game.

YTD 28-23

Probably the only play for this weekend is a moneyline parlay
Pays 2/1

Auburn -135
Clemson -360
OU -275


:0008
 

TLankford

Donkey
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Nov 24, 2005
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Once 5D gets futures back up for the national title after Saturday (assuming Auburn wins) I'll probably be putting a decent chunk on Auburn. Kind of along the lines of betting on who is the hottest team going into the playoffs in pro sports. Auburn has been playing pretty flawless since the 2H of the LSU game
 
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