32 Teams - 1 Trophy

lostinamerica

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Yesterday was my first winning week in college ball in about six weeks, which means I should probably tread lightly and play with my head on a swivel this week in the NFL.
San Francisco(Un20')(+100) vs. Washington (1*)
- - There is value in this play as I have little doubt it would play out more than 5 out of 10 times in this spot, and the bell curve for blowing past this number also points to value.
GL
^ ^ ^ Playing out just the way I had it capped ^ ^ ^ 6-0 and Skins with the ball near the 40 yard line with 1:30 left in half, and remembering to "play with my head on a swivel", I was sooo ready to play San Francisco(Ov10) (or so) for the second half for a nice middle opportunity . . . and what happens?; Washington fumbles and gives up a TD one play later, it's 13-0. :facepalm: Now I'm stuck with hoping the original bet comes through, but that seems really unlikely . . . And I was ready to unload on Dallas(-6')(2h), but remembering to "play with my head on a swivel", with Seattle a stronger second half team and Dallas not so much, I decided not to up the ante from my original wager, even though I really, really, really wanted to do it.


On to the late games, and I've sort of come around to liking Pittsburgh, but will stay closer to home than that.

Green Bay(-5') over San Diego (1 Biscuit)
- - The Packers remain the hunters and not the hunted.


GL
 

lostinamerica

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NFL YTD: 27-16 (+10.91*)
NCAA YTD: 26-41 (-20.01*)

Miami(-4) over Washington (1*)
- - The home team really has a bounce in their step, IMO. They will probably be hard pressed to have legs for three games, but this second game seems tailor made to fit.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Tampa Bay(+4) over Houston (1*)
- - In the early games, gets the nod over Indy(+3), St Louis(+3), Denv/KC(Ov42'), Buffalo(+6)(no longer available), Pitt/Cinci(Un40'), or doing nothing more.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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NFL YTD: 29-20 (+8.45*)

New York Jets(-6)(-103) over Denver (1*)
- - Peter King @ si.com: "When Tebow took over as quarterback four games ago in Miami, offensive coordinator Mike McCoy tailored a few things to him, but the Broncos basically ran their regular offense, the one Kyle Orton used to go 1-4. They lucked out in that win at Miami, then tried their luck against Detroit, with McCoy calling 46 pass plays and 30 runs in the 45-10 loss to the Lions. "We got shellacked,'' Fox told me. "We were so one-dimensional, and we were banging our heads against the wall. I remember back in '06 in Carolina, we had a bunch of injuries, we were losing and we had to go play a really good Atlanta team. We basically invented the Wildcat for Chris Weinke that week and went into Atlanta and won the game. So here, we just figured let's try to do what Tim's comfortable with. It's just coaching. Doesn't matter if you coach JV, high school, college or the pros -- when you've got different kids, you need to do different things. Figure what your players can do, and adjust to them . . . So in the last couple of weeks, practices have been different for the Broncos. "Lot of dive options, pitches, play action, trying to get Eddie Royal the ball wide,'' Fox said. "Practicing what Tim does well, and oh yeah, I'd say that part [of the gameplan the last two weeks] has grown . . . In Oakland eight days ago, the Broncos ran it 39 times (for 299 yards) and called 22 passes; Denver won 38-24. In Kansas City Sunday, the ratio was out of control: 55 runs, eight passes...and that was after losing the top two backs, Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno, to injury, and running a third-stringer, Lance Ball, 30 times. The offense is not necessarily designed to get Tebow running; of their 94 runs in the last two weeks, Tebow's had only 22. The offense uses Tebow the same as at Florida, as an option pilot. As Tebow said after the game Sunday, he doesn't care how often he throws or passes or hands off -- his job is to survey the defense and make a judgment how to attack as the play, millisecond by millisecond, develops." . . . Any worries I have about how this game plays out do not involve whether the motivated Jets defense is going to be undisciplined or unprepared for the Den-veer (presenting Tebow and his charges with far more speed bumps than the other way around), but are pinned to whether the Jets find ways put some points on the board (expecting no more than 20 or 23 will be needed), despite the short week with travel.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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At first blush and at second blush I liked this week's card . . . I need to trust my stuff and like the card.
That's quoting the start of my NCAA post from yesterday . . . went 4-4 on posted plays, and then never got around to posting Cal(+17) with a write-up as one of my best plays, because I got too busy following my wagers in The Presidents Cup, and the later stages of the tough loss by Vandy . . . Also disappointed that I left off Penn State and Michigan State as two of my strong leans, and while I'm at it, pulling the trigger on the Jets rather than the under on Thursday . . . Anyway, at first blush and at second blush I liked this week's card . . . I need to trust my stuff and like the card.

Buffalo(+3) over Miami (1*)
- -

Cincinnati(+7)(-120) over Baltimore (1*)
- -

Seattle(+3) over St. Louis (1*)
- - The visitor is the team that comes into this divisional game with a real bounce in their step, emotion in their tank, and players and units showing definite progress, IMO, so I'll grab the points and expect to cash my ticket at 3:00.

Cleveland(-1)(-120) over Jacksonville (1*)
- - Oh boy . . . lets just say the odds are it will not be pretty(-750), and leave it at that.

New York Giants(-6) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - Last week's SF vs. NYG game was the best played 60 minute football game I've seen all year, manifesting the obvious preparation that went into it, and I come away from that game seeing value taking the loser of that game back at home against a division rival and whatever squad Andy Reid is riding under his saddle right now.

Atlanta(-6) over Tennessee (1*)
- - Atlanta is a rebound team that now needs to respond for their coach's confidence in them, with the rush defense, offensive balance and dome field advantage to match up well . . . But, I think the line is about right, and that's always scary.

Leans right now to Chicago, Green Bay, Arizona :scared , Oakland (scratch that), Dallas and Detroit.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Green Bay(-14)(-105) over Tampa Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - I've looked it over, read about it, applied the handicapping angles, and I'm not concluding the value lays with taking Tampa Bay to get after Green Bay in this one, or taking Green Bay to be shown by Tampa Bay to have had Thanksgiving Day or something wrong on their minds and in their locker room.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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NFL YTD: 34-29 (+3.57*)
NCAA YTD: 35-48 (-18.79*)

11:55 . . .

San Francisco(-14) over St. Louis (1*)
- -

Chicago(-9) over Kansas City (1*)
- -

Cincinnati(+7) over Pittsburgh (1*)
- -

Tennessee/Buffalo(Ov43) (1*)
- -

GL
 

lostinamerica

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New York Jets(-10') over Kansas City (1*)
- - Whatever charms KC possessed last week will be in short supply.

Green Bay(-11) over Oakland (1Biscuit)
- - "No excuses." . . . . Dom Capers flashes a strong hand.

Arizona(+3') over San Francisco (1*)
- - Arizona will move the chains and be a live divisional dog in this one, very, very unlike the smack down they took in Candlestick.

Tennessee(+3') over New Orleans (1*)
- - Not really feeling it, but the capping takes me there.

San Diego(-7) over Buffalo (1*)
- - The difference between these teams last week extends itself this week.

Miami(-3) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - A play too far :facepalm: , or just right.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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NFL YTD: 41-34 (+5.07*)
NCAA YTD: 35-48 (-18.79*)

Seattle(-9') over St.Louis (1*)
- - http://www.stltoday.com/sports/football/professional/seahawks-outplaying-the-rams/article_95b548c1-0a56-59c0-9b47-aea32fc4189a.html
- - "It seems like an eternity since Seattle's last game, a 31-14 victory over Philadelphia on Dec. 1. The Seahawks will go 11 days between games, almost as if they had a second bye built into their schedule . . . "We've made it like a bye week, try to take advantage of the break so we can get fresh, get healthier," Carroll said. "It's come at a good time, this late in the year, but we've got to take advantage of it." . . . The Seahawks are the second well-rested opponent in succession to face the Rams. The 49ers had 10 days to prepare for their 26-0 victory over the Rams on Sunday, following a loss on Thanksgiving to the Baltimore Ravens.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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06madjackavatar.jpg
:toast:


Green Bay(-12) over Kansas City (1 Biscuit)
- - Since about Weeks 9 and 10, the public and private purpose in the Green Bay locker room has been the #1 seed, and today it's on the table. Now the Packers also have to show themselves what they can do with Jennings on the sideline . . . From a capper on another site: "Kansas City fired their head coach this week. The trends say when a head coach is terminated, that week after, teams are 5-13 ATS, and 0-6 as home dogs. GB falls under the trend, road favorites by 13 1/2 or more are 16-11. Although their best WR Jennings is out due to injury, the Packers have enough talent at that position, to compensate for his loss . . . Although GB's defense can be suspect at time, my experience with teams with poor offenses, struggle and don't score a multitude of points off a bad defenses, and if they do, they are usually outscored. Such is the case in this game, and besides, GB is outstanding on capitalizing on their opponents mistakes, and turnovers" . . . I see plenty of Chief's games here in my Midwest market, and I've definitely seen they were playing hard for their former coach Haley, so I don't see the big changes in that area to unleash against the champs with Romeo Crennel and Kyle Orton this week . . . I don't find the elements that make this a good spot to side with trends of 0-6, 5-13 and 11-16.

Arizona(-6) over Cleveland (1*)
- - I'm a fan at some significant level of any team where Mike Holmgren lands. In that vein, my #1 piece of knowledge I've known about Cleveland since the start of the season is this: whatever talent they have, they are thin on depth almost everywhere. Now worn down by a stretch of divisional games and on the road in Week #15, the Brownies may get a shot of energy at QB (or they might not), but it will not be enough with HC Whisenhunt having his Cardinals believing they are making some noise down the stretch.

New York Jets(+3)(-125) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - A team with grit that can matchup is not the right recipe for the 2011 Eagles, or Michael Vick in 2010 or 2011. The game might go either way, but the wrong team is favored.

New England(-7)(-120) over Denver (1*)
- - I bet against Denver as one of my 3 top plays of the season when they played Detroit, and the only time I was "Teebowed" since was against the Jets . . . Denver is not built to be on the verge of running the table since the time of creation, and Denver sure stands out as the wrong side for a big game this week.

Detroit(-2') over Oakland (1*)
- - I've had Detroit as an NFC playoff team since Week #1, and even when they were playing like crap and I had to admit they were not as strong as I thought they would be, I always continued to believe they would be in the playoff mix even with a loss in Week #17 at Green Bay. I wish Oakland wasn't coming home off two embarrassing efforts, but this is really like a road playoff game for the long hapless Lions, and Detroit will be in this game for 60 minutes, and should find a way to celebrate the win.

Buffalo(Pk) over Miami (1*)
- - I cap more bounce with the desperate home team.
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20111218/SPORTS03/112180350/Buffalo-Bills-Miami-Dolphins?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Bills


GL
 
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