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Bullshit. NOBODY takes that chance on their own 28 yard line WITH THE LEAD!
I don't care if Manning was sucking oxygen outta Johnny Unitas' dick, and having Don Shulla call the plays into him!
I'll promise you that Manning has failed in the "2:00 Drill" more than he has succeeded.
I'm also willing to bet that NFL coaches who are leading the game and try to complete a pass on 4th down inside their own 30 yard line are 0-1.
- Mar 19, 2006
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http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html
Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount
Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount
- Jan 21, 2007
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So if colts would have drove down the field and scored anyways why did NE decide to play defense down at the goal line on back to back runs? They could have let colts run it in on first down and got the ball back down 1 with over a minute left. The egomaniac should have known that. It was all about his ego and being the only coach in the history of the game going for it up sixat his own 29. It backfired and now his feelings are hurt.
Meh...who cares, game is over and Patriots are still the better team. Not like homefield is going to matter if they meet up in the playoffs.
I get tired of hearing all these explinations on why the call was good or why it was bad.
It was a stupid fucking call, no explination needed as to why it was.
I get tired of hearing all these explinations on why the call was good or why it was bad.
It was a stupid fucking call, no explination needed as to why it was.
I do have one question for all you morons who keep bringing up Peyton Manning and his greatness....
If he's so fucking great, and you're willing to go for it in that situation, then why not just go for it on 4th down everytime? Fuck, it was on the 28 yard line, not midfield, fuck, it doesn't even matter. The explinations I keep hearing about Manning this, Manning that beg me to ask that very question. Why ever punt it if you wouldn't punt it in that situation?
If he's so fucking great, and you're willing to go for it in that situation, then why not just go for it on 4th down everytime? Fuck, it was on the 28 yard line, not midfield, fuck, it doesn't even matter. The explinations I keep hearing about Manning this, Manning that beg me to ask that very question. Why ever punt it if you wouldn't punt it in that situation?
The other explanation is that u had the best quarterback in the world going for the win needing only two yards which he got i might ad but a shitty spot screwed him out of it. What people like you fail to realize Bucks is that this was the best two quarterbacks in the world and not one of these shitbags quarterbacks littered all over the NFL. You are right it is a bad call when it is Mcnab you want to go 70 yards. The toughest part of a drive at the end of the game is the last 30 yards and Manning went right thru them like nothing. Just like he usually does before the half and at the end of the games when braindead coachwes leave him a minute or two. Let me say it a little more slowly. You punt to Orton. You try to end the game with Manning.
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- Mar 2, 2006
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Geez spongy why do you have to bring Orton into this? Couldn't you use 30 other analogies? I actually think it was the right call, you would think one of the best offenses in the league could get two yards. But then again, you would think that one of the best offenses in the league would have some sort of running game and on 3rd and 2 or whatever it was would run the ball, or 4th and 2, or at least pass it to one of their better receivers instead of Faulk, eh? But I am no head coach, and of course I'm sure Bellisuck knew what he was doing.
Anyway, it was still a glorious moment for those of us who love to hate on the Patriots, sorry fans. It's just every once in a while, it's nice to see the Hoodie grimacing behind his stoic non-expressive facade.
Welker was WIDE-OPEN across the middle too, BTW....
I also must note, JUGGLE or NOT, that spot was terrible. He had that ball right at or even SLIGHTLY before the 30...how the referee could see that, and the booth didn't review is beyond my belief.
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I also must note, JUGGLE or NOT, that spot was terrible. He had that ball right at or even SLIGHTLY before the 30...how the referee could see that, and the booth didn't review is beyond my belief.
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i said Mcnab earlier :mj07: I could name about 25 quarterbacks i would have punted to. I had Indy on the money line and when i saw Billy going for it i wasn't to happy.kurby I wanted Manning to get the ball back with a punt and play right into Mannings hands. Same thing when Manning was driving. I didn't want him to score quick and give the ball back to Brady. As Herm Edwards would say "YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME" "YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME" Solid coach Herm was.
here's an excellent piece on it.
here's an excellent piece on it.
and don't forget how easy it is to criticize someone after the fact. He has to take intangibles into account, in addition to the fact that it's just a percentage play---randomness is a fact of this life and lotta folks don't seem to wanna accept this fact.
When It Comes To Fourth Down, Belichick Is Anything But Conventional
Tue, 11/17/2009 - 1:31am
By Christopher Price
Bill Belichick is receiving a lot of criticism from Monday morning quarterbacks, but he has some backing in the academic world.
When Bill Belichick was deciding whether or not to go for it on fourth down in the fourth quarter of Sunday night?s 35-34 loss to the Colts, there were several reference points for him to consider, including field position, the state of the Patriots defense and the overall ability of Peyton Manning.
And what David Romer might do in this situation.
Early in his career with the Patriots, Belichick acknowledged that when it came to his overall decision-making on whether or not to go for it on fourth down, he was able to draw some information from a paper written by Romer, an economics professor at Cal-Berkeley. Entitled ?It?s Fourth Down and What Does The Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic-Programming Analysis of Football Strategy,? the 33-page paper (link to it here, warning pdf file) studied a number of NFL box scores over several years ? as well as mathematical, statistical and economic factors ? in trying to find out when it made sense to go for it on fourth down, and when to either kick a field goal or punt it away.
Romer found that teams punted far more than they had to. His analysis included several salient points, including some that Belichick may have had in mind when he went for it on fourth-and-2 at the New England 28 late in Sunday?s game:
? Even on its own 10-yard line, a team within three yards of a first down is marginally better off, on average, going for it.
? At midfield, on average, there is an argument for going for a first down on any fourth down within five yards of a first down.
While many around the league openly scoffed at the paper ? including former Giants coach Jim Fassel and ex-Steelers coach Bill Cowher (Fassel snarkily told ESPN.com, ?What does the professor coach? Maybe he needs a few more classes to teach. Too much free time.?) ? Belichick confessed to having read and studied Romer?s work, and had been able to put it into practice on several occasions.
?I think I understand some of the points that were made in there, and I think he has some valid points,? the coach said during training camp in 2002. ?There?s sometimes an emotional aspect, and momentum, if you will to those decisions, but I?m not sure how to calculate that.
?I understand the points that he?s made. I don?t understand all the mathematical equations [of] how he got to those points, but I think that some of those are legitimate points and you just have to evaluate the situation to your team, the team you?re playing,? he added. ?I see where a lot of that?s coming from.?
(The Patriots have turned to the academic world on several occasions. A few years ago, Rutgers professor Harold Sackrowitz got a call from Patriots director of football research Ernie Adams, who quizzed Sackrowitz on some work he had just done detailing football?s two-point conversion ? when to go for two and when to kick the extra point. Adams sent the professor the Patriots? ?go-for-two? chart, and asked Sackrowitz to take a look. Of the 32 NFL teams, the statistician told the New York Times, only the Patriots called.)
Sunday night?s decision to go for it against the Colts was certainly in character for Belichick and the Patriots. Whether it had anything to do with Romer?s impact or not, when it comes to going for it on fourth down, the Patriots have traditionally been one of the more aggressive teams in the NFL under Belichick. (A list of some of the outside-the-box decisions by Belichick and the Patriots to go for it is available here.) In five of the last seven seasons, New England has been in the top 10 in total fourth-down attempts. This year, the Patriiots are tied for ninth in the league with 11 attempts and have converted five of them.
More often than not, they are able to convert. According to ESPN, since 2001, on fourth-and-2 or less, the Patriots had converted 76.4 percent of fourth-down plays. In that same span, the teams with the two best fourth-down conversion rates are the Colts (61.6 percent) and Patriots (60.5 percent). Interestingly, Elias also noted on Monday that since 2000, including the postseason, Bill Belichick had gone for it an astounding 16 times on fourth down against the Colts ? and converted 12.
On WEEI's "The Big Show" on Monday, Belichick referenced the end of the 2006 AFC championship game ? where the Patriots punted the ball away to Manning and the Colts, only to see him engineer a game-winning drive with just over a minute to go ? as one of the reasons he decided to go for the first down on Sunday night.
?It came to, if we had made that play [Sunday], we would have been able to run out all or most of the clock so we didn?t need very much. We felt good about the play,? Belichick said. "We?ve been on the other side of that one, it?s basically where we were in the AFC championship game. We?ve done it both ways and we tried to win the game on that play and it didn?t work out.?
here's an excellent piece on it.
and don't forget how easy it is to criticize someone after the fact. He has to take intangibles into account, in addition to the fact that it's just a percentage play---randomness is a fact of this life and lotta folks don't seem to wanna accept this fact.
When It Comes To Fourth Down, Belichick Is Anything But Conventional
Tue, 11/17/2009 - 1:31am
By Christopher Price
Bill Belichick is receiving a lot of criticism from Monday morning quarterbacks, but he has some backing in the academic world.
When Bill Belichick was deciding whether or not to go for it on fourth down in the fourth quarter of Sunday night?s 35-34 loss to the Colts, there were several reference points for him to consider, including field position, the state of the Patriots defense and the overall ability of Peyton Manning.
And what David Romer might do in this situation.
Early in his career with the Patriots, Belichick acknowledged that when it came to his overall decision-making on whether or not to go for it on fourth down, he was able to draw some information from a paper written by Romer, an economics professor at Cal-Berkeley. Entitled ?It?s Fourth Down and What Does The Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic-Programming Analysis of Football Strategy,? the 33-page paper (link to it here, warning pdf file) studied a number of NFL box scores over several years ? as well as mathematical, statistical and economic factors ? in trying to find out when it made sense to go for it on fourth down, and when to either kick a field goal or punt it away.
Romer found that teams punted far more than they had to. His analysis included several salient points, including some that Belichick may have had in mind when he went for it on fourth-and-2 at the New England 28 late in Sunday?s game:
? Even on its own 10-yard line, a team within three yards of a first down is marginally better off, on average, going for it.
? At midfield, on average, there is an argument for going for a first down on any fourth down within five yards of a first down.
While many around the league openly scoffed at the paper ? including former Giants coach Jim Fassel and ex-Steelers coach Bill Cowher (Fassel snarkily told ESPN.com, ?What does the professor coach? Maybe he needs a few more classes to teach. Too much free time.?) ? Belichick confessed to having read and studied Romer?s work, and had been able to put it into practice on several occasions.
?I think I understand some of the points that were made in there, and I think he has some valid points,? the coach said during training camp in 2002. ?There?s sometimes an emotional aspect, and momentum, if you will to those decisions, but I?m not sure how to calculate that.
?I understand the points that he?s made. I don?t understand all the mathematical equations [of] how he got to those points, but I think that some of those are legitimate points and you just have to evaluate the situation to your team, the team you?re playing,? he added. ?I see where a lot of that?s coming from.?
(The Patriots have turned to the academic world on several occasions. A few years ago, Rutgers professor Harold Sackrowitz got a call from Patriots director of football research Ernie Adams, who quizzed Sackrowitz on some work he had just done detailing football?s two-point conversion ? when to go for two and when to kick the extra point. Adams sent the professor the Patriots? ?go-for-two? chart, and asked Sackrowitz to take a look. Of the 32 NFL teams, the statistician told the New York Times, only the Patriots called.)
Sunday night?s decision to go for it against the Colts was certainly in character for Belichick and the Patriots. Whether it had anything to do with Romer?s impact or not, when it comes to going for it on fourth down, the Patriots have traditionally been one of the more aggressive teams in the NFL under Belichick. (A list of some of the outside-the-box decisions by Belichick and the Patriots to go for it is available here.) In five of the last seven seasons, New England has been in the top 10 in total fourth-down attempts. This year, the Patriiots are tied for ninth in the league with 11 attempts and have converted five of them.
More often than not, they are able to convert. According to ESPN, since 2001, on fourth-and-2 or less, the Patriots had converted 76.4 percent of fourth-down plays. In that same span, the teams with the two best fourth-down conversion rates are the Colts (61.6 percent) and Patriots (60.5 percent). Interestingly, Elias also noted on Monday that since 2000, including the postseason, Bill Belichick had gone for it an astounding 16 times on fourth down against the Colts ? and converted 12.
On WEEI's "The Big Show" on Monday, Belichick referenced the end of the 2006 AFC championship game ? where the Patriots punted the ball away to Manning and the Colts, only to see him engineer a game-winning drive with just over a minute to go ? as one of the reasons he decided to go for the first down on Sunday night.
?It came to, if we had made that play [Sunday], we would have been able to run out all or most of the clock so we didn?t need very much. We felt good about the play,? Belichick said. "We?ve been on the other side of that one, it?s basically where we were in the AFC championship game. We?ve done it both ways and we tried to win the game on that play and it didn?t work out.?
Here's some math:
When you pass the ball, three things can happen.....two of them are bad. Well, you can add a fourth, if you include NOT passing the ball far enough to get the first down.
I notice everyone who agrees with the call and how great Manning is have very short memories.........
Remember last year in the playoffs when all the Colts needed was..........not a 30yd drive for a winning TD.............Not a 70 yard drive for a TD...........BUT A MEASLY FU#KIN FIRST DOWN VS SAN DIEGO........a shitty sd defense I might add...............
And the GREAT MANNING AND THE COLTS COULD NOT GET A FIRST DOWN............
They punt and SD scores and puts it into overtime and SD wins............
So dont be telling me Manning is automatic in that position...............
A STUPID CALL:mj07:
Of course Belichek probably never watched this game because his team was not in the playoffs:mj07:
Remember last year in the playoffs when all the Colts needed was..........not a 30yd drive for a winning TD.............Not a 70 yard drive for a TD...........BUT A MEASLY FU#KIN FIRST DOWN VS SAN DIEGO........a shitty sd defense I might add...............
And the GREAT MANNING AND THE COLTS COULD NOT GET A FIRST DOWN............
They punt and SD scores and puts it into overtime and SD wins............
So dont be telling me Manning is automatic in that position...............
A STUPID CALL:mj07:
Of course Belichek probably never watched this game because his team was not in the playoffs:mj07:
First the fact that the Patriots are better is highly debatable. If they play again it will likely be another shoot out. However, how can you say that homefield advantage isn't going to matter in the playoffs? That may be the the one thing that you would get the most people to agree on in this whole conversation.
I witnessed the Patriots take it to the Colts. Patriots are a bad matchup for the Colts, and had it not been for conservative play calling in the 4th quarter...and going for it on 4th and 2 isn't what I mean. I mean the CHOICE of plays called.
There's no doubt in my mind that when these 2 teams play again(if they do) I'd be willing to bet that the Patriots win, ML all the way.
The Colts aren't as good as their 9-0 record indicates. These over thinking ego coaches go away from what they know and what got them to where they are late in the game. They continuously give the Colts 10 lives and sooner or later you're gonna lose when your balls are tucked between your legs.
If it weren't for terrible coaching, they SHOULD have 2 losses already, and 2 more looking right at them.
Amazing how just the slightest thing can make a difference between 9-0 or maybe soon 11-0, or even 7-4(I think they lose to BAL + HOU).
