90% Public money on Carolina

gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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a question...

when we put so much emphasis on what "the public wants/plays",aren`t we admitting that many gamblers believe that the whole shooting match is fixed in some way?...why else would such a statistic mean jack- shit?.... we all would agree that logically,carolina has been the far better,more consisitent team all year long...manning looks lost out there much of the time(his qb rating is just north of eddie Arcaro`s boot size).....the entire afc has been decimated by injury and was a bit of a joke this year....

always wondered what the actual logic behind bucking the public was?(unless the books need the other side and have some way of shading the outcome)........you hear quite a bit about momentum,but,nobody`s been hotter than cam and Carolina....

we hear this contrarian anti-logic all the time on gambling forums....why?...what`s the logical explanantion?

i appreciate the responses...but I don`t think I got a logical answer as to why people worry about public percentages on a game...

why worry about what vegas "needs' if vegas has no actual bearing on what happens in a game?
 

Scrapman

Rollingdembones
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Jan 6, 2013
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i appreciate the responses...but I don`t think I got a logical answer as to why people worry about public percentages on a game...

why worry about what vegas "needs' if vegas has no actual bearing on what happens in a game?

BOOM Drops the mike walking off the stage!

BRavo Weasel i could say it any better than YOU did!

Vegas has no bearing on any outcome of any game they have a vested interest YES but cannot make one side cover a wager .

NOT even if refs help because that team was just that BAD.
 

TouchdownJesus

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Jun 13, 2004
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I think its more about "Vegas knows more than the average bettor"

I think its really difficult to find and/or trust where the public money is. But if I knew 80% was on one side, I would either take the other side or not play it.

Sometimes I see a line that looks too good to be true and I play the other side. I'll have friends who don't bet and they'll see it as "easy money"...or that I'm an idiot for betting the other way. My logic is that Vegas doesn't give away money.
 

luke5579

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Oct 31, 2015
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I don't think they have any bearing or control over the game however I think they are so good at what they do that they typically know what the outcome will be within a few percent and at that point adjust the lines in order to get the money they need from the public.
 

3 putt pete

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Hell, I've been asking this for years "and just who is the public?" and have never received an answer of any sort.

People around here use the term all the time. It's like they think they are somehow on a higher plane than others because they post on a sports gambling forum or maybe they gamble a few more dollars than the average Joe.

For the record, I don't buy into the notion that books release sensitive and accurate information that could potentially damage them. There is absolutely no advantage to be gained by them by doing so. I don't buy into any of it.

It's got to the point that there are very few of us that cap games the old fashioned way any more. I think that all the hoopla surrounding any given game is more scrutinized than the match up itself. I'd be willing to bet that 75% of the guys that post in the college hoops forum could name 3 starters on any team they wager on.

We are all the public
 

airportis

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Sep 22, 2006
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to differntial is huge

negative number vs a postive number add together to get differnce bewteen two teams or points on a straight zero line scale

heres what it looks like

Denver -4 - - - -0- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Panthers +21

byieeeeeeeeee denver Panthers win by making Deners D stay on filed with 4 minute to 6 minute drives wearing them down final scores i have are

Panthers 35 denver 14 or 17 Panthers 28- denver 9 Panthers 49 or 53 denver 21


all these trends mean fuck all. especially trends over numerous seasons. the game and the way it is played has changed over 50 years, so giving some trend of the last 47 superbowls means jack shit.

the Panthers scoring 49 or 53 is a pretty asinine prediction.

Peyton Manning might not be the elite QB he once was but I dont have much doubt that he will step his shit up and play the best game of the season this Sunday. nobody is smarter at the position. I can guarantee you he is relentlessly studying this defense looking for weaknesses and anything to give him the edge. he will be ready Sunday and you will eat your words.

have been waiting for the Broncos to get back to the Bowl after the fiasco a few years ago. hope we win this one for Peyton and he rides off into the sunset just like Elway did.

I love the fact that everyone is counting Manning out due to his age and shitty season. It is the last game of his career most likely, and he has the best work ethic in the league. he will be ready Sunday and the Broncos will win the game. :toast:
 

tcon142

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Oct 16, 2005
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We are all the public[/QUOTE]

Hit the nail on the head 3 double P! A good number of the people that get asked about the game that we consider joe public (work associate, neighbor, wife's BFF, local weather guy etc) probably don't wager dime one on it! And if they do it's probably minimal compared to those in forums discussing the game. I do feel being on the other side of any wager is a good position if you could ever find out exactly what the true numbers are.

good luck on your call Airportis!
 

Kelso

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Feb 1, 2009
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I saw on my computer the lines come up around halftime of the Caro Az game.

It opened. 4 1/2. 44
The in the second half it dropped to 3 1/2.
After the game , the line started rising.

Hmmmmm
 

Skanoochies

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Nov 15, 2001
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Hell, I've been asking this for years "and just who is the public?" and have never received an answer of any sort.

People around here use the term all the time. It's like they think they are somehow on a higher plane than others because they post on a sports gambling forum or maybe they gamble a few more dollars than the average Joe.

For the record, I don't buy into the notion that books release sensitive and accurate information that could potentially damage them. There is absolutely no advantage to be gained by them by doing so. I don't buy into any of it.

It's got to the point that there are very few of us that cap games the old fashioned way any more. I think that all the hoopla surrounding any given game is more scrutinized than the match up itself. I'd be willing to bet that 75% of the guys that post in the college hoops forum could name 3 starters on any team they wager on.

We are all the public
Great Post.
For there to be a Public post of money and bets wagered, would there not be a
corresponding Private bettors list of no. of bets and wagers to show why the odds
are the way they are? What a crock of shit.

I don`t care if it is Walters, Mayweather or the fucking King of England,
anyone making a bet is part of the Public!!!
 
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