A 15-1 shot with a chance at Philly

[Jimboski]

I'm afraid this one is for degenerates or bunge jumpers only. A fun bet of maybe 2 bucks accross the board might be in order though. The horse shows nothing recently and rates last in almost every catagory that counts. The bestest capping sheet I know of picks him dead last. But I see a few things that has the makings of a big upset winnah and worth some pocket change....

(Now, this is all gonna read like he's a cinch but he AIN'T and even I'll be a little surprised if he pulls this race out. Just a little surprised that is. I'd also be a little surprised if he doesn't hit the board too.)


Philly Park (No "Parx" for me)
Race 6, no. 2, Sir Dance A Lot (15-1 M.L.): Jock/trainer is a longshot combo. I really like the fact that he changed his running style in his last race even though the fractions were slow. He was pretty competitive in MUCH higher class races at Philly in 2010 and knows this track and distance well and Molina rode him almost every time. He has A P Indy blood in him whose one of MY favorites. I watched him in the prerace the last time he ran at Philly and he looked pretty good..... . . er, and finished 2nd from last.

The fact that he ran extremely wide in that race and then takes a trip to Laurel race track, shipping ain't his trainer style BTW, and changes his running style there makes me think that his owner and/or Shavelson (trnr.) are "up to no good"

And GET THIS -> except for his maiden win which was way back in March, he finished in the moola only 3 times and his odds were 12-1 (3rd), 11.90-1 (won) and 9.60-1 (won). Those are from the 9 races he was in since his maiden win.

For me? Well, I'm going a little overboard for a stab like this and 5 stinkin bucks (W/Pl/Sh) is plenty enough. I'll also do the exacta box thingy (only $2 tickets) - him with the no. 4.5 and 8.

Good luck.

 

[Sportsaholic]

Scratched :shrug:

 

[Jimboski]

Get an "E" for effort

Get an "E" for effort

Doncha just love it when ya spend so much time studying them only to get a scratch and an outa the money

If you watched that second race, the pick ran real nice until hitting the stretch. He got pressed throughout the first 3/4s of the race. Most of my horses show that good early speed and since I don't put that much weight (handicapping points, if ya know what I mean) on just early speed - I think thats a good sign. I think he was well meant... another good sign. STILL that horse with the ugly name ran out.. DAMN, DAMM, damn... OOOPS, (sorry bout that, Axe :facepalm: )

Something may be up with that Dancing horse. Could be good or BAD? I'll be on the lookout for this one and the play is ONLY win or on top if I play exotics with the Dancer. Expecting either a first place finish in it's (po thang ain't a HIM anymore. OUCH!) next race OR a last place finish. NO wheeling or dealing with this one

BTW, I only had action on that 2nd race today. Put in the 6th race plays but that was a refund. Got to the puter in time to check out the last race and came up with the fav. A top/bottom wheel job woulda worked but I don't want no part of 7 to 5 shots in fairly competitive 10 horse fields. NOT AT THIS TRACK. Fav.finished second to complete a $45 zacta. No big deal.

JUST for your entertainment.. I'll post tomorrow's pick(s) IF THERE IS ANYTHING WORTHWHILE. Monday and Tuesday have always been my bestest days at Philly (I don't bother with Saturdays at all anymore. What a day to skip wacin, huh?)

Thanks for lettimg me know you read this stuff, Sportsaholic.

Enjoy the game tonight if ya like footsball.

 

[Sportsaholic]

My buddy follows the ponies so I ran it by him. He pulled the 1 of that race with 8/4. Will follow Sir Dance going forward :0008

 

[Sportsaholic]

(po thang ain't a HIM anymore. OUCH!) next race OR a last place finish. NO wheeling or dealing with this one
QUOTE]

Is this why "It" was scratched?

 

[Jimboski]

Good one Sports

Good one Sports

:142lmao:

They say that the horse actually runs faster. You know, the less weight they carry around the track - the faster they can run. :142lmao:

I'm gonna go over tomorrow's entries and see if there's something good going. Track conditions should be fine and the weather too so maybe the races will run fair and square. That's good.

I'm in a good mood after that Stanford game and that's when my horse sense works best. Really. I'm pretty much done with the college Bawlers so I can concentrate on them Philly Bombers now.

Oh... Sports, do you play the ponies online? TwinSpires?

 

[Jimboski]

As promised - Philly plays for today (Tues)

As promised - Philly plays for today (Tues)

Think I'll just put the plays here instead of starting a new thread. Don't wanna hog up the place.

Overall, looks like a very nice card AT FIRST. Some nice big fields with plenty of longshot angle horses throughout the card too. Really like to hit one of them but the problems are (1)there's a couple (not just one) of longshot plays (horses) per race and (2) not finding a race where ya can disregard the favorite; just about every one of them looks very tough to beat. Ya just gotta get your horse's nose in front of one of them favorite's nose at the wire to cash one of them nice, fat Philly exotics. YUM, Yum! Actually, since some of them longshots are gonna be really huge odds - finishing 2nd to the fav. could still make the WHOLE DAY worthwhile cause we're talkin Philly.

Studied them real close like and come up with these. BTW, posting more races/COMMENTS than usual so I'm using the official program nos. instead of horse's names.

2nd Race
I'm covering the bets with several kinds of bets and different horses. Some players say that's "playing against yourself". If so, just skip this one.
KEY exacta 7 with nos. 1,2 (that means these kind of exactas -> 7 over no. 1, no. 1 over 7, 7/2,2/7).
Also, key exacta box no. 6 with nos. 1,2.
Cover with small Win/Place on each -> no. 4 and no. 9. Odds should be very good on either.

3rd Race
Sheesh, the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices look good. There's 2 horses that have the "longshot look" to me. I may take each of them with the 3 favorites in exacta boxes, But, maybe just taking a shot with each of those two horses by themselves W/PL or just Win may interest some players. The three choice that figure are the 2,4,and 6. THE TWO bombers (Longshot possibilities IMO) are the no. 10 and 12. I've seen that no. 12 run sooo many times and he was a good one in these cheap races. I always keep an eye on him and his last race showed signs of being his ole self again. That doesn't mean I'm ignoring the no. 10 though.


7th Race
I cannot believe this race. It's filled with some amazing stuff that will bore most of you to death. I know that there are some folks around here that are really into horseracing AS A SPORT not just a gambling avenue, so here's just one of the shorter, amazing things in this race.... .... . . . I like the no. 3 and the 5 in this race a lot. Along comes the no. 6 hoss whose trained by one Carlos Guerrero who I've written about in here before. Now, how the hell can you bet against a hoss trained by this guy? Like. this horse f'rinstance, who C.G. claimed in his last race and today is the first time he's gonna run the horse. Now, this C.G. fella wins his first race with his claimed horse ONE HALF (actually 45%) of the time. Can you imagine that? AND... how many times has he claimed a horse and then got to run it?... 10?, 15?, 20 times. NO, how bout NINETY FOUR times.That's 45-46 times he wins the freakin race. Hell, his "all races" win % last year was 40%.

I started with the no. 1 and by the time I got to the no. 5, I had 3 excellent plays that I had to weed out later. Then I run into this Guerrero's horse. I give up.

Oh, the play?...

The play is TWO stinkin bucks W/PL/SH on the no. 9 hoss. He's 20-1 and will probably go off MUCH higher. This is the kind of horse that pays 3 figures in the win column and, based on his pp's, the first figure should be a 2 and not a 1. The real question is whether he makes it to the first turn. If he does, well... ah, we'll see what happens. I'm also gonna box him in exactas with the field (that is, wheel him top and bottom)... smallest size tickets I can find. If any of you get to see the PPs for this race and don't follow me down this crazy path, I can easily understand why.

Next playable race is the 10th. I'll do that one around race time.

 

[Sportsaholic]

Thanks for the info :0074

 

[Sportsaholic]

Nice hit on the 7th :0074

 

[Jimboski]

Sho wish that favorite didn't get in there

Sho wish that favorite didn't get in there

Unfortunately, the DANG $/*)&*$#**, freakin 1-1 mutha jumpin FAV. beat my 30-1 shot by a half a nostril, IF THAT.

SON A Ma Beeech. You know, one of them favorites I wrote about in my post. Check it out on Twinspires if ya can. If ya can't I took a pic (below) for my memoirs. LOL

Still,the Win/Place/Show (went for $5 tickets, WOW WEEE, cause his odds weren't nearly what I thought they'd be) Even my STINKIN $1 dollar zacta (YEAH, had ALL the bastages with that no. 9 hoss, top and bottom) wasn't too bad. Day was decent enough I guess.


.... Don't give up, MJ hossplayers. NEVA give up!








Looks like ya gotta get out the magnifying glass to see the pic. Losing my touch with these dang newfangled, electronic, TOYS.
If ya click on it, you'll see it better. That's my 30-1 shot on the outside and I took the pic. just BEFORE the finish line. It was even closer there.

Oh well, close, but not quite the Jackpot.. there's one right around the corner methinks.

 

[Sportsaholic]

That 10th race had some bombs come in :scared

Did you have any of it :shrug:

 

[Jimboski]

Do you play horses online, Sports??

Do you play horses online, Sports??

I got online kinda late and had to watch the replays to see how I did. Turns out, I watched that 7th race about THREE times, Ya think I woulda use my head and at least made one of those exactas the $10 or $20 variety - my hoss with that freakin Guerrero's hoss. Dang it. Re-read my post and you'll know why I ain't so happy bout NOT doing just that.

When I was done with the replays, I switched to the live racing and thems were just coming onto the track for the 10th.

Looked them over real quick and couldn't come up with anything solid. I skip a LOT of races anyways; that's difinitely the thing to do.

I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have come up with either of those first 2 finishers in the 10th.

Stay tuned, Sports and see my question in the titile LOL.