A general handicapping question...

[TheShrimp]

I read Nick Douglas, notorious dog bettor, state before that he likes betting baseball because without the point spread his goal is the same as the team he bet on (something like that -- sorry if I misquoted you Nick). But is it really worth it if you prefer to play favorites?

Take an example from today. I just looked at the SF game, and to play them straight up, 100 wins 70, whereas if you give the 1.5, 100 wins 120. That's about a 55% discount in payout for a single run. Other games are similarly discounted. Now, if you expect a lot of 1 run ball-games (like maybe the d-backs), you might not want to lay the 1.5.

But, in order to make the straight up play worth it over laying the 1.5, you would have to expect a 1 run margin in about 1/3 games that your team wins (70/(70+120) or 7/19).

On the other hand, if you're a dog bettor, getting that 1.5 run costs you about 55% and it hardly seems worth it to take the run. I presume that Nick, being a dog bettor, made the statement I paraphrased above for this reason.

Now, I don't have statistics for the amount of 1 run games, but a look over the scoreboards for the first couple weeks of the seasons makes it look like betting the fave and laying the 1.5 is worth more than just betting the favorite outright. If you're betting a fave in a high-scoring environment like Coors or Enron, or on a day with two #5 starters going, laying that 1.5 might become even more worth it.

Any opinions on the matter, or anyone with data to support/refute what I have said here would be appreciated.

Thanks,
TheShrimp

 

[Magic_01]

I am totally with you. If I bet a fav, lets say they are -150 or so... then they are +125 on the -1.5 line, so what I do is play 150 to win 100, and usually 50 to 100 on the -1.5. That way if they dont' cover the 1.5, I still break even, or make a small profit, but when they do win, it seems like over 50% of the time they will cover the 1.5, and you will cash in more.

 

[DNOMYAR_5791]

Magic

Magic

What part of NE are you from? I grew up in Omaha.

:drinky:

 

[yyz]

Let's say that you know the Brewesr stink out loud. So, you see them playing in St Louis, and say, "Why should I take the Cards at -165, when I can give up the run and a half and get +115?"

You could have said that on Tuesday, Wednesday, and today.

You know what?

You would have had the winning team all three days, as the Cardinals sweep all three, and lost every penny you risked, as each game ended 6-5

I touted the Pirates -1' on a day this week, when they pitched a shutout! Man, that is some sweet handicapping, and some easy scratch, when you have a guy toss a shutout! "What? Oh, really? They only scored one run themselves?"

"Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuhk!"

The run line, like any other wager, is only a good bet if you win. "Saving money" would have cost you everything with the Cards this week. There are no shortcuts.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Shrimp,

I say only from experience that giving 1 1/2 runs to turn a fave into a dog is a bad idea. First of all for me personally, it gives the team a different motivation than my wager. To use yyz's example, the Cards are the happiest team in baseball after the last few days but runline bettors who took the Cards are the polar opposite.

Last year was my first year putting serious money on baseball but in 1999 and 2000 I would track my "would be" record and from time to time play $10 or $20 on a game while I was learning to bet the sport. I read where Jim Feist wrote that on faves higher than -125, it was a better idea to take the -1 1/2 so I tried that out. When I looked back at my results, I found that doing so cost me money over the long term. I would have lost money betting faves anyway, but giving the 1 1/2 runs cost me even more money.

My advice is that if you like to bet faves, choose them carefully and lay the chalk. Don't look at those little -120 and -130 faves looking for teams that supposedly should be favored by more. Look for a good -150+ fave that is a mismatch. I don't see any tonight as an example but if you play them selectively at only 1 to 3 plays per day and you look for mismatches and good situations, you can probably make a profit betting faves without giving the -1 1/2.

 

[TheShrimp]

Thanks Nick,

The Cards is a fine example (even if it is only 3 games), but as I looked through the first week or so of the season, laying the 1.5 was really looking to me like a better deal (of course you need to throw out the cases where they lost out-right and neither wager would have paid).

You threw STL my way, but of the favorites that won last night,
(Bal, Cle, Sea in the AL and STL, FLA, Atl, Zona in the NL),
you would have won much more money laying the 1.5 rather than picking straight up, with the Cards being your only loss. If the run only gained you 15% value or so, I'd be more leary of laying the 1.5, but you're gaining, as I said previously, almost 55% a HUGE difference.

(I don't believe NYM, Cin or LA were favored. If I'm wrong on those accounts, it could sway the results, but it would still be close.)

One caveat I might add to a "lay the 1.5" strategy would be not to do it if the FAVE is the home team, where the chances of a 1 run win are higher. Of course that eliminates a lot of favorites.

I'll try to have the dedication to track this strategy over a longer period of time and post some results to Madjack's as the season goes along.

Thanks to everyone for the input.

TheShrimp

 

[TheShrimp]

Let's say that you know the Brewesr stink out loud. So, you see them playing in St Louis, and say, "Why should I take the Cards at -165, when I can give up the run and a half and get +115?"

I know this, but if you bet 100 on EVERY fave last night, not just the Cards, you would have cashed about +720 (6 wins at about +120 apiece).

If you bet every fave last night without laying the 1.5, you would have cashed about +600 (7 wins at about +85 a piece).

And I'm not saying that one night makes your strategy, but you can't tell me to just look at the Cards from last night when there were many more examples than that.

Thanks.
TheShrimp

As in my other post, I can't exactly remember if the cubs, mets and reds were favored, but you get my point anyway, I hope.

 

[MadJack]

if the runline was an advantage to the bettor, they wouldn't have it.

no stats off-hand to support it, but letting you know from experience, the runline has killed me in the past.

THE RUNLINE IS EVIL! :nono:

 

[MadJack]

by the way. you can track a team's recent runline history by clicking here and scrolling down to the runline matchups. click on 'matchup'

http://www.bigguy.com/main/welcome.html?screen=comprehensive


for an example, here is last night's matchup report for the yankees/toronto game.

http://www.bigguy.com/main/analysis.html?report=matchup&id=MLR020411NYYANKEESCLEEYR

 

[PerpetualCzech]

It can't be a simple as this ... I haven't done any research on 1-run games but if the run line is so bad when laying the -1.5, then shouldn't betting on +1.5 blind on every game give a profit?

 

[MadJack]

then shouldn't betting on +1.5 blind on every game give a profit?

nope....you're turning a dog into a favorite and they'll get you that way too!


it cannot be beaten.

i'm so sure of it, i won't bother to research it.

just scroll through some history's from the link above and you can see for yourself.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

The skeptic in me doesn't beli3ve you. Any line can be beaten with enough research!

One way where I am pretty sure you can get an edge is in games with high scoring. If you take a look at a sample of lines, you'll see the a 1.-5 road favourite in Colorado has the same run line as a -1.5 road favourite with Randy Johnson somewhere else. This is almost certainly wrong ... the former game will have twice as many runs scored in it yet the run that you have to give up is worth the same since you are getting the same line. This can't be right ... there has to be value with the -1.5 line here compared to the straight up line.

 

[dr. freeze]

the runline is killing me so far this year....i am playing it through th weekend, and if things don't turn around, i am done with it.....

 

[goldcupsports]

OK jack you baited me... LOL As a straight up play the runline is a losing proposition in most cases. One thing the run line is good for is a scalp. That is really the only use I have ever see for the runline over a long period of time. I make those comments and then I played the White Sox -115 -1.5 today. Maybe I should practice what I preach

 

[Pgh Kid]

another bad thing about the run line is betting the home team -1.5. Makes it a little tougher with one less at bat.

 

[THUNDER]

RUNLINES GIVE SOME VALUE IF YOU ARE LAYING HEAVY CHALK.if one is laying -200 and lose it takes 2 winners at even money to make it up. which way are you screwed more +100 or -200? one run games may get you but laying that heavy of chalk will kill you.example sf is -165 to 170 with 2 quality pitchers on the mound.sheets is a stud i see this as a close game so if i liked sf i would have to lay -165. no value. know last night with johnson and colon on the mound pitching against 2 aaa pitchers there is alot of value in rl. but like schilling against hampton tonight a phenom against a good pitcher no value in the rl. i play rl in c ertain spots and will lay upto -150 no more on straight wagers.it works for me. but whatever one does laying over 150 no matter who is on the mound will kill you. one more note when i play rl i also look at the favs offence, can they score against those aaa pitchers if they can i like the value in the rl. jmho

 

[yyz]

This is kinda like when someone thinks thet have figured out how to bet a parlay so they are assured a winner.

I really hope it works fro you, but don't be shocked if it fails.

 

[Night Owl]

I've been keeping track of the runlines since the start of the season for every game (in addition to faves and dogs, straight up). And the numbers are actually pretty interesting. For arguments sake and just so you're aware, I have NOT COUNTED games in which both teams have been listed as slight faves (I.E. neither team gets you back even money or better). Those games seem to happen only about 2-4 times a week on average. That being said, the favorites overall for the rest of the games are 73-52 so far by my calculations, a .584 winning percetage. No big deal there, right? I'd agree. HOWEVER, I've also tabulated how those WINNING favorites would do if you decided to lay the 1.5 runs in each contest and out of the 73 favorites who have covered so far this year, 57 have ALSO COVERED THE RUN LINE!! 78.1% Not bad, huh?? :shrug: Granted, it's still very early in the year and I'm not trying to suggest there's no risk involved, but the way I look at it is if you honestly feel one team is going to blow the other out for whatever reason, there's absolutely nothing wrong with laying the 1.5 runs. Personally I would especially apply this to Johnson and Schilling and just take my chances with a 2-run game and MUCH LESS chalk as the trade-off. Anyway, just my .02 cents. Good luck all.

Night Owl

 

[Magic_01]

Re: Magic

Re: Magic

What part of NE are you from? I grew up in Omaha.

:drinky:

I live in the Kearney area.

 

[THUNDER]

xyz parlays have little value also. i am talking plain bang for buck and minimizing losses. guessing has nothing to do with it. but money management does, owl thanks for the stats. one will find more 2 and greater games than one run games. i i put 500 at -200 and lose 1000 or just losing 500 i feel better about losing by that .5 than losing 1000 inreality one is laying .5 for alot of value not 1.5 because unlike hockey there are no ties.