AFC CHAMPIONSHIP:
The Baltimore Ravens pulled a "shocker" by winning as an underdog of more than a touchdown (+9) in Denver last week. No one, and I mean no one gave them a chance to win, but they did. Denver fans and backers claim the game was stolen by the refs, the coach, etc. Watching the game with purple glasses on, I felt the refs made equally horrible calls against the Ravens (example: PI against Williams for putting his pinky on the receivers shoulder on 3rd down. The drive went from a long FG try to a Denver TD) The Ravens won IN SPITE of giving Denver 2 touchdowns on special teams. Not sure if or when that has ever happened before, especially in a playoff game. Bottom line: The Ravens won the game and overcame many obstacles. No excuses for their win.
Can they do it again?
Winning as an underdog of more than a touchdown in the playoffs has happened 11 times since 2000. So, how did the winning underdog do the following week? Since 2000, a team winning a playoff game as more than a 7 pt dog has won SU 6 of 11 the following week and covered ATS 8 of 11 of those games. Not bad.
Can a big dog win back to back weeks in the playoffs?
8 times since 2000, has a team been an underdog of over 7 points in back to back playoff weeks . These teams went 5-3 ATS and 3-5 SU the 2nd game. That's a SU winning percentage of 38%; significantly higher than the NFL average of 19% for dogs over 7 points winning SU. However, if the underdog of 7+ won its playoff game on the road, and the following week are 7+ point underdogs again, then these teams are a SOLID 6-1 ATS and 3-4 SU the 2nd week!! Conclusion: If a team can go into a visiting stadium in a playoff atmosphere as a huge underdog, and come away with a victory, then this team is for real. History tells us that a big upset road win will propel a team forward, not wear them out or drain them emotionally.
THE LINE
My initial thought was that the line should be 6.5 or 7 in favor of the Patriots. I was surprised to see the line of 9 as most of you all were. It feels as if Vegas is begging for Ravens money. Knowing the "Book" is not in the business to lose money, its never a good feeling to be betting along with the majority of the public. So, I sat down and figured out what the true line should be by the numbers for THIS YEAR'S teams . I came up with the Patriots being a 10.5 favorite. So, if my math is correct, then Vegas is actually enticing Patriot money on the game. Many wagering "fun" sites report the Ravens are getting more action (around 70% on some) and the line has come down from 9 to 8, indicating Ravens action and enticing Patriot money. Remember: Vegas wins about 53% of all games. Advice: Do not allow this one piece of information to sway your wager!!
The Rematch or The Rematch?
The Ravens are looking to revenge an AFC championship game loss last year that was bitter to swallow. They were a dropped pass away from the Superbowl and a shanked chip shot away from overtime. The Patriots are looking to avenge their loss to the Ravens in wk 3 of this season when Justin Tucker's kick went precariously over the right goal post. Motivation will not be advantage to either side in this game. Patriots want nothing more than to pound out a 40 point win and put to rest this anomalous team in the Ravens, that just seem to always give them fits.
Between the Lines:
The Ravens offensively are clicking as well as ever. Joe Flacco has never looked more comfortable in the pocket with the new O-Line. The big bad Broncos and the dynamic sack duo of the Colts combined for only 2 sacks of Flacco so far in the playoffs while the Ravens have dished out 6. What has been truly impressive has been the averages produced per play. Flacco averaged 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 12.0 yards per completion this year. In the 2 playoff games, he is averaging 10.4 per attempt and a whopping 19.7 per completion. The running game has even seen slight improvements from 4.4 yards per carry to 4.6 yards per carry in the post season. The defense has been much improved the past 4 weeks. Defensively giving up 21 to Denver, 9 to Indy, 16 to Cinnci, 14 to the Giants for an average of 15 points per game compared to the season average of 21.5. Conclusion: The Ravens look the best they have all season. They are finally healthy on defense, they have flourished with the revamped O-Line, Flacco is much more comfortable and productive with Caldwell as O-Coordinator and they have a rookie kicker that is trust worthy to make the "big kick". This team looks like they could beat ANYONE - ANYWHERE.
The Patriots are a juggernaut on offense. Tom Brady has more weapons than a Halo character at Inheritor level. Brady's per play averages are not much higher than Flacco's for the season; 7.6 yards per attempt and 12.0 per completion, but Brady has 12 more TD's than his counterpart this year. The Ravens have for the most part, given up a lot of yards between the 20's and held their ground in the red zone. The patriots must capitalize when they get their chances inside the 20. In a normal game, the opposing offensive will try to extend their time of possessions and number of play in order to keep Brady off the filed. Sunday, the Patriots may try to do just that to Flacco. The Patriots must exploit their strengths and the Ravens weakness which is across the middle of the field. Lets face it, the Ravens LB's are slow (Suggs and Lewis). It will be very difficult to stop the Patriots TE cross patterns and the Arrow route to the running backs. Look for Brady to wear out CB Kerry Williams on the sidelines. Ravens will need to pressure Brady or it will be a long day defensively.
Conclusion:
This should be one hell of a game. Both teams are playing great ball. Both teams are on fire offensively. I honestly believe this one comes down to turnovers. If history repeats itself Brady will do just that. He has 7 TDs and 8 INTs lifetime versus the Ravens. The Ravens will bring pressure early and often. Most of Brady's success against Baltimore has been against 3 and 4 man pressure.
The Ravens must jam the receivers at the line and not allow the quick release and throw plays.
Baltimore must hit the big play. In the Ravens? last six playoff games (since the 2010 season), Joe Flacco is 107-of-184 for 1,485 yards, 12 TDs & 2 INTs (101.4 rating). Joe has been his best in the postseason.
The Flacco/Rice/Harbaugh era has done just about everything in their 1st 5 years that anyone could ask. Now its their time, their opportunity to jump the next hurdle; Win a Conference Championship Game.
History says it can be done. The numbers say it can be done. The team believes they WILL GET IT DONE.
Prediction: Ravens 34 Patriots 31
Play: Ravens +8 **STRONG PLAY**
