Ugly & bloody (& bloody ugly) as it?s been for the Ravens this season, at 5-6 they are still very much alive for a ticket to the Big Dance. In fact both of the paths that were there from the opening kickoff in Denver remain possible: win the AFC North or qualify as a wild card.
Could the Ravens win the division? They would need help, but that?s not as unlikely as you?d think, so long as they take care of their own business. Of all the AFC?s current division leaders, the Bengals arguably have the toughest row to hoe: With a 2 game lead over both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, they must play each in the last 3 weeks of the schedule. Meanwhile they must travel cross-country to San Diego to face the Bolts, re-energized by a last-minute victory over the then 9-1 Chiefs, and then host the AFC South-leading Colts.
Let?s consider two main cases:
(1) Poe?s Crows run the table to finish 10-6. I give this roughly a 6% chance of happening. Only the Bengals could match or better this record (since in running the table Baltimore would hand the Stealers their 7th loss Thanksgiving night). If Cincinnati also finished 10-6, the Ravens would win the division based on head-to-head sweep. This would require the Kittehs to lose one more game beside the season finale. Pulling some numbers out of my butt, I guesstimate the chances of the Ravens winning the next 4 in a row at 13.5% to come into Week 17 at 9-6, & the chances of the Bengals winning the next 4 in a row (clinching the division in week 16 at 11-4) as about 26.5%, which would leave about a 10% chance that the season finale will be for the division.
(2) Baltimore finishes 9-7, defeating both AFCN opponents remaining. Here there are three subsets:
(2a) Cincinnati also finishes 9-7 but Pittsburgh finishes 8-8 or worse. The Ravens then win the AFC North via the head-to-head sweep of the Orange Tabbies.
(2b) Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both finish 9-7 to create a 3-way tie. This requires the Bengals to lose 2 of the next 4 games & come into the season finale no better than 9-6; the Ravens to lose no more than 1 of the next 4 games to come in at 8-7; and Pittsburgh to win out after losing in Baltimore (defeating the Bengals in the process). Once again, the Ravens win the division, because the first tiebreaker for 3 or more teams within a division is their record in games amongst the tied teams. Baltimore would be 3-1 in those games (1-1 vs PGH, 2-0 vs CIN), Pittsburgh 2-2 (1-1 vs CIN, 1-1 vs BAL), and Cincinnati 1-3 (1-1 vs PGH, 0-2 vs BAL).
(2c) Pittsburgh finishes 9-7 but Cincinnati collapses to finish 8-8 or worse. In this case Pittsburgh wins the AFCN over Baltimore. Going down the tiebreak hierarchy,
- Head to head: PGH and BAL split
- Divisional record: Both 4-2 in the division, but
- Common games: These consist of 12 games (4 vs Cleveland and Cincy, 4 vs the AFC East, and 4 vs the NFC North), in which the Stealers would be 8-4 and the Ravens 7-5.
Note that the two games the Ravens
must win to have any plausible shot at the AFC North title are vs the divisional rivals. If Baltimore beats Pittsburgh but loses to Cincinnati, then in a 3-way tie at 9-7 all teams would be 2-2 (splitting with each of the others) but Pittsburgh would take the crown on divisional record (4-2 vs the others? 3-3); if Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh but defeats Cincinnati, then in a 3-way tie Pittsburgh again advances, with a 3-1 record in games amongst them while Baltimore is at 2-2 & Cincinnati at 1-3. To win the division while losing to either one essentially requires one or both of them to stumble to where tiebreakers are irrelevant.
IMHO the odds of the Ravens winning the AFC North are a lot better than anyone would have thought--so long as they take care of their business. That needs to start with stomping the Stealers this Thursday. (Stomp, hell--I'd take a FG in the last seconds of OT with no injuries. Counts the same in the standings as a stomping.)
opcorn2
