6-1-1 posted plays.
Last 5 games for the Saints and Crows are interesting...almost identical I50's (52-49 each), almost identical scoring (2.29 - 2.27), but St. Kilda defense has fallen away (1.89) whereas the Crows has stepped up to 2.35.
(Interesting to see that they've played 3 common teams in those last 5 games too!)
Saints score better in the dome, av. 4 more I50's and 2 goals more.
As I've mentioned before, Adelaide play a much freer game away from home, av'ing nearly 12 more I50's per away game! (6 more themselves, 6 more against).
Neither team going all that well, imo...both just 2 wins of their last 5.
Crows deserve to start favs, but don't think I can take them here in that role.
Will hopefully get a nice low total, given it's a Crows game! Will be looking for an over at around the 160 mark...time will tell.
Bit pointless looking at stats as far as Geelong are concerned!! They lead just about everything.
Collingwood 4th best D over last 5 games, Geelong best...
...the Cats do av. about 6 less shots per game outside...although I guess that has to be tempered somewhat by the Brisbane and Sydney games that were in the pouring rain.
Still, with both teams' D on fire, and plenty at stake this should be a low scorer.
I'll be looking for an under, not sure whether I'll get what I want, but hoping for 180ish.
Geelong deserve to be 1.50 favs, but yeah, not great value either way imo.
(Although, pick a winner and take the 1-39, it won't be a blow out.)
WC/Port?! How to get a handle on this one. WC without Kerr and possibly Judd.
Despite gong just 2/5 (and 3 of last 8!), theiur numbers aren't too bad. Av'ing 5 more I50's than their opp, holding them to a shot every 2.09 for only about 22 shots per game!!...
...but as mentioned, their last 2 at home have been unusually poor.
Port av. -2 I50's and let teams score every 1.77 entries!!...the dif being that they score well themselves.
Port actually av. +4 I50's at home this season tho, and without 2 keys for WC...
No idea! One team that plays D but can't score, away to a team that scores lots but can't stop anyone.
Interestingly Port have won 8 of 10 meetings, 4 of the last 6 they were 'dogs, inc/ last season winning easily @ home as 'dogs.
Wish I had have grabbed the 2.25 for Port yesterday...
Nothing in the stats overall for the Dogs/Essendon...nothing in them inside the Dome (Ess -6 I50's to -1, but play far better D than the Dogs)...but last 5 is pretty telling...
Dogs -1 I50...Ess -10!! Dogs score 1.73 entries, Ess 2.02...Again tho, Ess play better D, but with Fletcher out and likely McVeigh (who I'd suggest would have got Johnson) can they keep that up?
Tough one with so many people missing from both sides.
I do think the Dogs win, but was horrified to see 1.50...now down to 1.40 even!!
Will have to think seriously about taking Ess +15.5 or better I think...
...the over looks a given, but I'm sure the number will be stupidly high.
Melbourne going slightly better than Brisbane in their last 5, but Brisbane at home are better again.
I don't thinnk they deserve to be 1.50 favs, but not brave enough to touch Melbourne.
We all know Sydney/Carlton will be a joke, but 1.15? No thanks. Swans love the SCG, winning and covering 8 of theri last 10. They hold teams to a shot every 2.5 entries (about 70ppg), and av. about 9 more shots per game!
Carlton defense at an all time low...allow a shot every 1.61 entries in theri last 5 (worst by a fair way!), and about 140 ppg.
I wanted -26.5 or better. Woin't get it. Oh well...
Swans did win at home last season by 92...
Tigers!...Starting to enjoy them in this dog/spoiler role! Haven't lost any of their last 7 games by more than 25.
Hawks lask of scoring power looks a worry, esp. without Boyle.
Their last 5 games have all been won well by their midfield (+8, holding teams to 44), but their scoring has dried up (2.06 overall, 2.17 now), and their D has too! (1.98 down to 1.85)
Richmond are on the improve, overall stats of -7.5 I50's score 1.95, allow 1.75...now into -4, 1.82 and 1.83.
The MCG suits them better, as turnovers don't hurt as bad...they are 1-6 there this year, but the losses were only by an av. of 20.
Interested...+23.5 will make me even more interested...
Kangas +16.5 or better should be available I think. Freo have won their last 4 at home...but a closer look shows it's all been down to conversion! Either they kick straight (21.11 v. Carlton...in a game they statistically lost!), or the opp kicks badly (Saints 6.19 in a very even contest).
At home this season they av. -1 I50 and 1 less shot than their opp..Kanga av. +1 and 1 more shot this season!
Last 5 is all very even. Kangas scoring has dried up a bit, but Freo have allowed 25+ shots in 8 of their last 9 and 34, 31, 31, 27 and 28 in their last 5!
Somewhat ironically, the Dockers won this meeting at home last year by 35 points...in a game where the teams had 19 shots each!
Straight kicking in the AFL is a fleeting thing at best these days...the numbers suggest a close game in general play, so let's hope the scoreboard reflects it!
Essendon +15.5 @ a couple of places, but that's the one I'm least sure of.
Kangas +15.5 @ Lasseters, but would like that extra point.
Richmond and Sydney won't get close to what I wanted.
Might have a 'fun' multi with Richmond +24.5, Sydney -24.5, Ess +24.5 and Kangas +24.5 @ ~6.70.
Still hoping for a total or two to come my way, but other than that, looks a quiet weekend.
:shrug:
Last 5 games for the Saints and Crows are interesting...almost identical I50's (52-49 each), almost identical scoring (2.29 - 2.27), but St. Kilda defense has fallen away (1.89) whereas the Crows has stepped up to 2.35.
(Interesting to see that they've played 3 common teams in those last 5 games too!)
Saints score better in the dome, av. 4 more I50's and 2 goals more.
As I've mentioned before, Adelaide play a much freer game away from home, av'ing nearly 12 more I50's per away game! (6 more themselves, 6 more against).
Neither team going all that well, imo...both just 2 wins of their last 5.
Crows deserve to start favs, but don't think I can take them here in that role.
Will hopefully get a nice low total, given it's a Crows game! Will be looking for an over at around the 160 mark...time will tell.
Bit pointless looking at stats as far as Geelong are concerned!! They lead just about everything.
Collingwood 4th best D over last 5 games, Geelong best...
...the Cats do av. about 6 less shots per game outside...although I guess that has to be tempered somewhat by the Brisbane and Sydney games that were in the pouring rain.
Still, with both teams' D on fire, and plenty at stake this should be a low scorer.
I'll be looking for an under, not sure whether I'll get what I want, but hoping for 180ish.
Geelong deserve to be 1.50 favs, but yeah, not great value either way imo.
(Although, pick a winner and take the 1-39, it won't be a blow out.)
WC/Port?! How to get a handle on this one. WC without Kerr and possibly Judd.
Despite gong just 2/5 (and 3 of last 8!), theiur numbers aren't too bad. Av'ing 5 more I50's than their opp, holding them to a shot every 2.09 for only about 22 shots per game!!...
...but as mentioned, their last 2 at home have been unusually poor.
Port av. -2 I50's and let teams score every 1.77 entries!!...the dif being that they score well themselves.
Port actually av. +4 I50's at home this season tho, and without 2 keys for WC...
No idea! One team that plays D but can't score, away to a team that scores lots but can't stop anyone.
Interestingly Port have won 8 of 10 meetings, 4 of the last 6 they were 'dogs, inc/ last season winning easily @ home as 'dogs.
Wish I had have grabbed the 2.25 for Port yesterday...
Nothing in the stats overall for the Dogs/Essendon...nothing in them inside the Dome (Ess -6 I50's to -1, but play far better D than the Dogs)...but last 5 is pretty telling...
Dogs -1 I50...Ess -10!! Dogs score 1.73 entries, Ess 2.02...Again tho, Ess play better D, but with Fletcher out and likely McVeigh (who I'd suggest would have got Johnson) can they keep that up?
Tough one with so many people missing from both sides.
I do think the Dogs win, but was horrified to see 1.50...now down to 1.40 even!!
Will have to think seriously about taking Ess +15.5 or better I think...
...the over looks a given, but I'm sure the number will be stupidly high.
Melbourne going slightly better than Brisbane in their last 5, but Brisbane at home are better again.
I don't thinnk they deserve to be 1.50 favs, but not brave enough to touch Melbourne.
We all know Sydney/Carlton will be a joke, but 1.15? No thanks. Swans love the SCG, winning and covering 8 of theri last 10. They hold teams to a shot every 2.5 entries (about 70ppg), and av. about 9 more shots per game!
Carlton defense at an all time low...allow a shot every 1.61 entries in theri last 5 (worst by a fair way!), and about 140 ppg.
I wanted -26.5 or better. Woin't get it. Oh well...
Swans did win at home last season by 92...
Tigers!...Starting to enjoy them in this dog/spoiler role! Haven't lost any of their last 7 games by more than 25.
Hawks lask of scoring power looks a worry, esp. without Boyle.
Their last 5 games have all been won well by their midfield (+8, holding teams to 44), but their scoring has dried up (2.06 overall, 2.17 now), and their D has too! (1.98 down to 1.85)
Richmond are on the improve, overall stats of -7.5 I50's score 1.95, allow 1.75...now into -4, 1.82 and 1.83.
The MCG suits them better, as turnovers don't hurt as bad...they are 1-6 there this year, but the losses were only by an av. of 20.
Interested...+23.5 will make me even more interested...
Kangas +16.5 or better should be available I think. Freo have won their last 4 at home...but a closer look shows it's all been down to conversion! Either they kick straight (21.11 v. Carlton...in a game they statistically lost!), or the opp kicks badly (Saints 6.19 in a very even contest).
At home this season they av. -1 I50 and 1 less shot than their opp..Kanga av. +1 and 1 more shot this season!
Last 5 is all very even. Kangas scoring has dried up a bit, but Freo have allowed 25+ shots in 8 of their last 9 and 34, 31, 31, 27 and 28 in their last 5!
Somewhat ironically, the Dockers won this meeting at home last year by 35 points...in a game where the teams had 19 shots each!
Straight kicking in the AFL is a fleeting thing at best these days...the numbers suggest a close game in general play, so let's hope the scoreboard reflects it!
Essendon +15.5 @ a couple of places, but that's the one I'm least sure of.
Kangas +15.5 @ Lasseters, but would like that extra point.
Richmond and Sydney won't get close to what I wanted.
Might have a 'fun' multi with Richmond +24.5, Sydney -24.5, Ess +24.5 and Kangas +24.5 @ ~6.70.
Still hoping for a total or two to come my way, but other than that, looks a quiet weekend.
:shrug:
