ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
- Thread starter EXTRAPOLATER
- Start date
she just patted you on the a$$ and winked...you may get laid tonite :142smilie
I'm Lovin' it!
Yesterday I thought to myself...it IS better to be good than lucky.
Today I'm having second thoughts.
Also,
is it me or did Emmel stop calling all those outside pitches for strikes from about the 4th inning on?
Quite a game.
I'd be lying if I said that my earlier post was not meant to jinx the under.
If that makes sense.
Finally might cash a total pick.
I still think I'll take it easy on totals for the rest of these playoffs. Byrd shutting down the Bosox for the first 5 innings is NOT what I expected.
Man, I wish there was a game tomorrow.
Yesterday I thought to myself...it IS better to be good than lucky.
Today I'm having second thoughts.
Also,
is it me or did Emmel stop calling all those outside pitches for strikes from about the 4th inning on?
Quite a game.
I'd be lying if I said that my earlier post was not meant to jinx the under.
If that makes sense.
Finally might cash a total pick.
I still think I'll take it easy on totals for the rest of these playoffs. Byrd shutting down the Bosox for the first 5 innings is NOT what I expected.
Man, I wish there was a game tomorrow.
If you had under 10.5 the hitters would have actually had some ABs rather than just hacking away at first pitches...lol...gotta love this shit.
:142smilie
:142smilie
rats. oh well. I'll take it.
Just how this might affect game #5 is something I have to consider. Nobody other than Boston's big three appears to be hitting. Youkilis did get that homer. Indians will be tough in game #5 but I'm not sure what's going on with Sabathia.
My 'cap is done. I just need to adjust it some.
Maybe.
Boston will feel serious pressure, I figure, but Beckett should toss a good one.
Have it up in a bit.
Just how this might affect game #5 is something I have to consider. Nobody other than Boston's big three appears to be hitting. Youkilis did get that homer. Indians will be tough in game #5 but I'm not sure what's going on with Sabathia.
My 'cap is done. I just need to adjust it some.
Maybe.
Boston will feel serious pressure, I figure, but Beckett should toss a good one.
Have it up in a bit.
Red Sox -125 in game #5 is the opening line... my guess is this line goes up a bit after Sabathia's terrible game #1 performance and the fact Beckett has been so awesome during his career.
I'll be hard pressed to not back the Tribe as home dogs once again.
I'll be hard pressed to not back the Tribe as home dogs once again.
Indians lead series 3-1
Indians lead series 3-1
Game #5
Beckett @ Sabathia
red sox 58% (-120)+3
under 8.5 54% (-115)even --ump Cederstrom is even
I'm giving the Red Sox a decent sized pitching edge for this contest. Giving them a very small edge at the plate, as well.
Beckett threw two horrible games against the Indians last season?one on the road and one at home?but this year both of his regular season starts against them were excellent, though he went 1-1 due to being the loser in a 1-0 game against Carmona at Jacobs. He was solid in game #1 of this series, though he did surrender 2 earned runs for his 6 innings of work, allowing 4 hits, a solo homer, and walking none while striking out 7. Beckett was outstanding on the road all season long: he owned a 4.17 era at home this year but on the road he went 11-2 with a 2.18 era and a 1.07 whip; his K/BB ratio on the road was over 5 as he gave only 16 free passes in 90.2 innings pitched. In his 15 innings of work so far in these playoffs he has walked NOBODY while striking out 15. He appears to have complete command of the strike zone currently. Beckett should be totally fresh and able to last for a good 7 innings or more. Red Sox have the arms in the pen to shut things down over the final couple of innings, including rock-solid closer Papelbon.
Sabathia lost a 1-0 decision to Dice-K at Jacobs back on July 24th, his only regular season meeting with Boston this year. In 7 career RS starts he is 2-4 with a 3.91 era. He was 11-4 with a 3.13 era at home this season. C.C. didn't look particularly good in his encounter with the Yankees, posting a 5.40 era for the game and allowing 10 baserunners (4 hits, 6 walks) and 2 home runs over his 5 innings of work. He survived that start, to get the W, but his next playoff start?game #1 of this series?was dreadful as he posted a 10.61 era for the game while allowing 7 hits, 5 walks, and 8 earned runs for his 4.1 innings pitched, picking up the loss. One has to imagine him giving a better performance for this contest but I think that the 11 walks to only 8 strikeouts, so far in these playoffs, is a bit of a warning sign. I'm finding it very difficult to come up with an appropriate rating for Sabathia in this contest; I have to rate him quite high as he has done his best work at home, but I certainly can't rate him as high as Beckett for this match. Indians middle relief is very good but closer Borowski, as I keep mentioning, is not the greatest closer.
Red Sox .800 OPS vs L regular season
Indians .760 OPS vs R RS
Red Sox .768 OPS on the road RS
Indians .795 OPS at home RS
Red Sox hitting .288 vs L
Indians hitting .268 vs R
Red Sox hitting .259 vs L on the road
Indians hitting .278 vs R at home
Red Sox hit .368 vs L last 10 (Sabathia only)
Indians hit .282 vs R last 10
(these offensive stats exclude Tuesday's game)
Red Sox 13-15 on the road to L RS
Indians 35-19 at home to R RS
The first line that I see for this game is a bit of a drag. Not a ton of value with Boston but I think that they're the right play. Sabathia may be due for a good game, mind you. No good under-umps working in these playoffs so my preference for totals?the under?isn't getting much help (Gorman is an under-ump though the announcers for game #3 claimed that he was the opposite, using his "era" as proof). If Sabathia tosses a good game then this one should play under, but how Sabathia performs is something that I'm having a hard time figuring out. I'm probably looking at a small play on the Bosox. I'm going to wait for a better line, though, as I think that I'll be able to get it. Two minutes after typing that and the -113 that I saw has moved to -120. Damn. I might try one unit for that price, if that's the best that I can get. I can be a real sucker for dominating starting pitchers?e.g. I took a bad hit backing Peavy for their one-game playoff?so I could be way off on this one. Still, Sabathia has been garbage in the playoffs thus far.
I'm going to look at a few more angles before doing anything with this one.
I'll post what I find, if I think it should factor in.
Predicted score: Red Sox 4 Indians 3
Plays pending.
GL
Indians lead series 3-1
Game #5
Beckett @ Sabathia
red sox 58% (-120)+3
under 8.5 54% (-115)even --ump Cederstrom is even
I'm giving the Red Sox a decent sized pitching edge for this contest. Giving them a very small edge at the plate, as well.
Beckett threw two horrible games against the Indians last season?one on the road and one at home?but this year both of his regular season starts against them were excellent, though he went 1-1 due to being the loser in a 1-0 game against Carmona at Jacobs. He was solid in game #1 of this series, though he did surrender 2 earned runs for his 6 innings of work, allowing 4 hits, a solo homer, and walking none while striking out 7. Beckett was outstanding on the road all season long: he owned a 4.17 era at home this year but on the road he went 11-2 with a 2.18 era and a 1.07 whip; his K/BB ratio on the road was over 5 as he gave only 16 free passes in 90.2 innings pitched. In his 15 innings of work so far in these playoffs he has walked NOBODY while striking out 15. He appears to have complete command of the strike zone currently. Beckett should be totally fresh and able to last for a good 7 innings or more. Red Sox have the arms in the pen to shut things down over the final couple of innings, including rock-solid closer Papelbon.
Sabathia lost a 1-0 decision to Dice-K at Jacobs back on July 24th, his only regular season meeting with Boston this year. In 7 career RS starts he is 2-4 with a 3.91 era. He was 11-4 with a 3.13 era at home this season. C.C. didn't look particularly good in his encounter with the Yankees, posting a 5.40 era for the game and allowing 10 baserunners (4 hits, 6 walks) and 2 home runs over his 5 innings of work. He survived that start, to get the W, but his next playoff start?game #1 of this series?was dreadful as he posted a 10.61 era for the game while allowing 7 hits, 5 walks, and 8 earned runs for his 4.1 innings pitched, picking up the loss. One has to imagine him giving a better performance for this contest but I think that the 11 walks to only 8 strikeouts, so far in these playoffs, is a bit of a warning sign. I'm finding it very difficult to come up with an appropriate rating for Sabathia in this contest; I have to rate him quite high as he has done his best work at home, but I certainly can't rate him as high as Beckett for this match. Indians middle relief is very good but closer Borowski, as I keep mentioning, is not the greatest closer.
Red Sox .800 OPS vs L regular season
Indians .760 OPS vs R RS
Red Sox .768 OPS on the road RS
Indians .795 OPS at home RS
Red Sox hitting .288 vs L
Indians hitting .268 vs R
Red Sox hitting .259 vs L on the road
Indians hitting .278 vs R at home
Red Sox hit .368 vs L last 10 (Sabathia only)
Indians hit .282 vs R last 10
(these offensive stats exclude Tuesday's game)
Red Sox 13-15 on the road to L RS
Indians 35-19 at home to R RS
The first line that I see for this game is a bit of a drag. Not a ton of value with Boston but I think that they're the right play. Sabathia may be due for a good game, mind you. No good under-umps working in these playoffs so my preference for totals?the under?isn't getting much help (Gorman is an under-ump though the announcers for game #3 claimed that he was the opposite, using his "era" as proof). If Sabathia tosses a good game then this one should play under, but how Sabathia performs is something that I'm having a hard time figuring out. I'm probably looking at a small play on the Bosox. I'm going to wait for a better line, though, as I think that I'll be able to get it. Two minutes after typing that and the -113 that I saw has moved to -120. Damn. I might try one unit for that price, if that's the best that I can get. I can be a real sucker for dominating starting pitchers?e.g. I took a bad hit backing Peavy for their one-game playoff?so I could be way off on this one. Still, Sabathia has been garbage in the playoffs thus far.
I'm going to look at a few more angles before doing anything with this one.
I'll post what I find, if I think it should factor in.
Predicted score: Red Sox 4 Indians 3
Plays pending.
GL
Sabathia has 11 walks this post season and an ERA that is double digits. Beckett has a 1.20 ERA and hasn't walked a batter.
I need to sleep on this game as Boston appears to have a lot more value based on recent performances.
If you like Boston, take them now. If you like Cleveland wait until a few minutes before the first pitch and you might get +130 or better.
I need to sleep on this game as Boston appears to have a lot more value based on recent performances.
If you like Boston, take them now. If you like Cleveland wait until a few minutes before the first pitch and you might get +130 or better.
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further game #5 analysis
further game #5 analysis
Pitcher vs Batter assessment for game #5
Sabathia
--------------
this season:
--only 3 Bosox players had hits off of C.C. in their one meeting this season, all singles;
Lowell went 1 for 3
Manny went 2 for 3
Youkilis went 2 for 3
Ortiz missed the game while
Crisp K'ed twice in 3 plate appearances
Drew stuck out in all 3 plate appearances
Varitek stuck out once in 3 trips
career:
going by the lineup the 'Sox used in game #1;
1.Pedroia is 0 for 3
2.Youkilis is 3 for 7 (.429) all singles
3.Ortiz is 5 for 18 (.278) with a double and a homer
4.Ramirez is 12 for 21 (.571) with 3 doubles and 4 homers (1.286 slugging)
5.Lowell is 2 for 7 (.286) both singles
6.Kielty is 9 for 29 (.310) with 4 doubles and 2 homers...I can see why he was put in the lineup; Drew should again sit as Bobby went 1 for 2 with a walk and 2 RBI against C.C. in game #1
7.Varitek is 1 for 10, though it was a homer
8.Crisp is 2 for 6, both singles
9.Lugo is 4 for 18 (.222) with a double and a homer
Bosox will no doubt use the same lineup as they had success in game #1 and, judging by the above numbers, they might have success again.
Of the 7 hits that C.C. allowed in game #1, the only extra-base hits were 2 doubles (Lugo & Lowell).
The key to success for C.C. in game #5 will be to find the strike zone on a more consistent basis. He only walked 1.4 batters per 9 innings pitched for the regular season, so his past two games have either been anomalies or else he just struggles under pressure. It's hard to fathom it being the latter. The better of his 2 starts, so far in the playoffs, was the game against the Yankees, and that one was at home, so I expect a bit of a bounceback game from C.C. here. While he did only allow the 2 doubles to the Bosox in game #1, he did allow 2 homers to the Yankees (Damon & Cano) and a double to Abreu. Jacobs is a hitters park so the extra-base hits are no surprise, but C.C. had little trouble keeping the ball in the park at home during the season as he allowed only 7 big flies in 135.1 innings pitched (he allowed 13 on the road in only 105.2 innings pitched). A bounceback game, maybe, but expecting him to totally turn things around may be asking too much. I'd be surprised if the Bosox can't cash at least 3 against him. 4 or 5 might be possible, while 6 is about the max. that I expect.
Beckett
------------
this season:
--6 out of 12 Indians faced had hits off him in their 2 meetings;
Gutierrez went 1 for 3; it was a homer
Hafner 1 for 6; triple
Lofton 2 for 3 including a double
Nixon 1 for 6
Peralta 3 for 5
Sizemore 1 for 6, striking out 4 times
Beckett walked 1 and K'ed 15 in the 2 meetings.
career:
again looking at the lineup from game #1;
1.Sizemore 3 for 12 (.250) with a double and 6 K's
2.Cabrera no appearances
3.Hafner 4 for 9 (.444) with a double, a triple, a homer and, surprisingly, 3 walks with no K's
4.Martinez 2 for 11 (.182) with a homer and 4 K's
5.Garko 0 for 5
6.Peralta 3 for 7 (.429) with 2 walks and no K's
7.Lofton 3 for 8 (.375) with a double and 4 walks to only 1 K
8.Gutierrez 1 for 3; a homer
9.Blake 2 for 8 with 3 K's
I was thinking that the Indians might change the order up, considering their failure in game #1, but looking at these numbers it appears that several of these bats have had some success against Beckett before. Keep in mind that he was punished twice by the Indians last season--once at home and once on the road--so it's no surprise to find several Indians with some decent numbers vs him. Lofton and Peralta were the best vs him this season, while Lofton continued it in game #1 by doubling off of Beckett. Hafner had the 2-out homer in the 1st, in game #1, while Blake doubled off him; he only surrendured 4 hits but 3 of them were for extra bases. This is, obviously, a must win game for the Bosox and Beckett has proven on several occassions that he can pitch in big-game situations. Beckett likely goes as long as he is able to; 7 or even 8 innings from him is expected, assuming that he is having success, which seems likely. Delcaman likely won't be used no matter what, I'd say, after his poor work in both game #2 and then again in game #4. The ideal scenario, for the Bosox, would be to have him last until Papelbon can close things down in the 9th. My guess is that either Timlin or Okajima would be used in the 8th, if needed. If the 'Sox need someone before the 7th then this series likely ends Thursday. I think that 2 or 3 runs seems like a reasonable low end prediction, while 4 or 5 runs seems reasonable for the high end.
I'm going to submit this before playing around some with these numbers.
further game #5 analysis
Pitcher vs Batter assessment for game #5
Sabathia
--------------
this season:
--only 3 Bosox players had hits off of C.C. in their one meeting this season, all singles;
Lowell went 1 for 3
Manny went 2 for 3
Youkilis went 2 for 3
Ortiz missed the game while
Crisp K'ed twice in 3 plate appearances
Drew stuck out in all 3 plate appearances
Varitek stuck out once in 3 trips
career:
going by the lineup the 'Sox used in game #1;
1.Pedroia is 0 for 3
2.Youkilis is 3 for 7 (.429) all singles
3.Ortiz is 5 for 18 (.278) with a double and a homer
4.Ramirez is 12 for 21 (.571) with 3 doubles and 4 homers (1.286 slugging)
5.Lowell is 2 for 7 (.286) both singles
6.Kielty is 9 for 29 (.310) with 4 doubles and 2 homers...I can see why he was put in the lineup; Drew should again sit as Bobby went 1 for 2 with a walk and 2 RBI against C.C. in game #1
7.Varitek is 1 for 10, though it was a homer
8.Crisp is 2 for 6, both singles
9.Lugo is 4 for 18 (.222) with a double and a homer
Bosox will no doubt use the same lineup as they had success in game #1 and, judging by the above numbers, they might have success again.
Of the 7 hits that C.C. allowed in game #1, the only extra-base hits were 2 doubles (Lugo & Lowell).
The key to success for C.C. in game #5 will be to find the strike zone on a more consistent basis. He only walked 1.4 batters per 9 innings pitched for the regular season, so his past two games have either been anomalies or else he just struggles under pressure. It's hard to fathom it being the latter. The better of his 2 starts, so far in the playoffs, was the game against the Yankees, and that one was at home, so I expect a bit of a bounceback game from C.C. here. While he did only allow the 2 doubles to the Bosox in game #1, he did allow 2 homers to the Yankees (Damon & Cano) and a double to Abreu. Jacobs is a hitters park so the extra-base hits are no surprise, but C.C. had little trouble keeping the ball in the park at home during the season as he allowed only 7 big flies in 135.1 innings pitched (he allowed 13 on the road in only 105.2 innings pitched). A bounceback game, maybe, but expecting him to totally turn things around may be asking too much. I'd be surprised if the Bosox can't cash at least 3 against him. 4 or 5 might be possible, while 6 is about the max. that I expect.
Beckett
------------
this season:
--6 out of 12 Indians faced had hits off him in their 2 meetings;
Gutierrez went 1 for 3; it was a homer
Hafner 1 for 6; triple
Lofton 2 for 3 including a double
Nixon 1 for 6
Peralta 3 for 5
Sizemore 1 for 6, striking out 4 times
Beckett walked 1 and K'ed 15 in the 2 meetings.
career:
again looking at the lineup from game #1;
1.Sizemore 3 for 12 (.250) with a double and 6 K's
2.Cabrera no appearances
3.Hafner 4 for 9 (.444) with a double, a triple, a homer and, surprisingly, 3 walks with no K's
4.Martinez 2 for 11 (.182) with a homer and 4 K's
5.Garko 0 for 5
6.Peralta 3 for 7 (.429) with 2 walks and no K's
7.Lofton 3 for 8 (.375) with a double and 4 walks to only 1 K
8.Gutierrez 1 for 3; a homer
9.Blake 2 for 8 with 3 K's
I was thinking that the Indians might change the order up, considering their failure in game #1, but looking at these numbers it appears that several of these bats have had some success against Beckett before. Keep in mind that he was punished twice by the Indians last season--once at home and once on the road--so it's no surprise to find several Indians with some decent numbers vs him. Lofton and Peralta were the best vs him this season, while Lofton continued it in game #1 by doubling off of Beckett. Hafner had the 2-out homer in the 1st, in game #1, while Blake doubled off him; he only surrendured 4 hits but 3 of them were for extra bases. This is, obviously, a must win game for the Bosox and Beckett has proven on several occassions that he can pitch in big-game situations. Beckett likely goes as long as he is able to; 7 or even 8 innings from him is expected, assuming that he is having success, which seems likely. Delcaman likely won't be used no matter what, I'd say, after his poor work in both game #2 and then again in game #4. The ideal scenario, for the Bosox, would be to have him last until Papelbon can close things down in the 9th. My guess is that either Timlin or Okajima would be used in the 8th, if needed. If the 'Sox need someone before the 7th then this series likely ends Thursday. I think that 2 or 3 runs seems like a reasonable low end prediction, while 4 or 5 runs seems reasonable for the high end.
I'm going to submit this before playing around some with these numbers.
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further game #5 analysis
further game #5 analysis
Boston score..probability(%)...Indians score...prob
0.......................1.....................0...............3
1.......................3.....................1...............7
2.......................7.....................2...............16
3......................14....................3...............24
4......................26....................4...............23
5......................25....................5...............15
6......................14....................6...............7
7.......................6.....................7...............3
8.......................2.....................8...............1
9+.....................2.....................9+.............1
I used to use, and may start again, a formula like this for NFL games; you can imagine the amount of time that can be spent trying to get such things accurate. For the NFL I relied heavily on stats but for this I'm kind of just using the force, and maybe a bit of whatever better judgement I've gained by relentlessly overanalyzing every nook and cranny of the 2007 MLB season.
As you can see, I'm concentrating the probability of the Red Sox total in the 4-5 range, while the Indians highest lies in the 3-4 range. Highest probabilities given to the Bosox 4 and the Indians 3, to match my score prediction. I've spent 10-20 minutes trying to come up with some reasonable numbers for this...perhaps the 4% chance of the Bosox scoring more than 7 is too high--I dunno--but they did pound C.C. not too many days ago so I think that I'm going to leave it as is.
Let's see what these numbers suggest...
(giving the Indians 60% on any ties, being home team and all)
Probable winner: Red Sox 63.9%
Red Sox -1.5: 40.3%
Probable total: (8.5) under 52.7%
Red Sox total: (4.5) under 51%
Indians total: (4.5) under 73%
and with available lines:
Red Sox win 63% (-118)+8
Red Sox -1.5 40% (+145)-1
under 8.5 52% (-115)-2
Red Sox under 4.5 51% (-140)-8
Indians under 4.5 73% (-140)+14
According to the crazy numbers that I've got posted up top, the Red Sox moneyline and the Indians team total under 4.5 both have value.
The game total, as my system call submitted, has no value either way.
The two plays that I was considering look to be worthwhile according to this fooling around. Of course, there's always the chance that the above numbers are skewed from reality and towards my inclinations, but I've done about as thorough a 'cap as I've done for any game this season right here...right now. If Beckett stumbles then it looks like I'll be stumbling with him. I actually would have had a system call of 60 or 61% for the 'Sox if they had taken game #4, so the results that I've got herein aren't too far off that mark.
Believe me, I am no fan of the Red Sox.
I state this because I'm actually thinking that this series may be far from over; if the 'Sox win game #5 with Beckett then they will have an excellent chance to come back at home and take this series. Several of these guys were on the team that came back to take 4 straight from the Yankees after being down 3 games, so they've done it before. I believe that Schilling could best Carmona in a game #6, but I'd be hesitant to put any money on Dice-K in a game #7. Still...'Sox have an excellent home-field edge and I presently believe that this series will go the distance. I mention all this as a series price on the Bosox, if they reopen it, might be a worthwhile play. I would need at least +300 to give it a go. I expect that the 'Sox would be -130 or -140 faves in that game #6--same as game #2--so I might be wiser to try Thursday's moneyline and then Saturday's moneyline as opposed to trying the 'Sox for the series; Matsuzaka against Westbrook, in the finale if it happens, looks to be a coin-tosser. Bosox would get the edge at the plate and would have a nice home-field edge, but Dice-K has not looked very good for the past 6 or 7 weeks now, so backing him, at likely -150 or more, seems a trifle stupid.
Hmmm...going to try one more thing...
a 3-team parlay with the Sox for the next 3 games (if such were possible) would be about:
-118 Thursday
-140? Sat-Schilling-Carmona
-150? Sun-Dice-Westbrook
----------
+427 for the 3-teamer
It looks like a +300 for the 'Sox series would NOT be enough. One would be better playing each game and then parlaying the winnings onto the next game. I might do just that, except that I'd pass on the game #7 matchup. I'm not very good at predicting series prices, though, so maybe my guess of +300 is way off. Either way, I would need better than the +427 to try such a crazy longshot bet.
I think that I'll grab that -118 while I can.
Don't know about pushing my luck with the Indians team total. Still, I'm looking at a +14 value indicator for a 73% call...better than the +8 that I get with the 63% call on the moneyline. System call was actually only 58%...
taking an average:
58%
63%
-----------
121/2= a 60.5% call on the 'Sox.
-118 has a break-even of 54.13%
60.5 - 54.13 = a 6.37 value indicator
NOT a system pick.
Beckett's 1st 2 playoff starts WERE.
Oh well...that number 37 has always been good luck for me. That was Dave Steib's number. Remember him? Still one of my favorite all-time Blue Jays.
Jeez...I've just spent the better part of the past 3 hours or so looking at this game #5.
Hope it was worth it.
further game #5 analysis
Boston score..probability(%)...Indians score...prob
0.......................1.....................0...............3
1.......................3.....................1...............7
2.......................7.....................2...............16
3......................14....................3...............24
4......................26....................4...............23
5......................25....................5...............15
6......................14....................6...............7
7.......................6.....................7...............3
8.......................2.....................8...............1
9+.....................2.....................9+.............1
I used to use, and may start again, a formula like this for NFL games; you can imagine the amount of time that can be spent trying to get such things accurate. For the NFL I relied heavily on stats but for this I'm kind of just using the force, and maybe a bit of whatever better judgement I've gained by relentlessly overanalyzing every nook and cranny of the 2007 MLB season.
As you can see, I'm concentrating the probability of the Red Sox total in the 4-5 range, while the Indians highest lies in the 3-4 range. Highest probabilities given to the Bosox 4 and the Indians 3, to match my score prediction. I've spent 10-20 minutes trying to come up with some reasonable numbers for this...perhaps the 4% chance of the Bosox scoring more than 7 is too high--I dunno--but they did pound C.C. not too many days ago so I think that I'm going to leave it as is.
Let's see what these numbers suggest...
(giving the Indians 60% on any ties, being home team and all)
Probable winner: Red Sox 63.9%
Red Sox -1.5: 40.3%
Probable total: (8.5) under 52.7%
Red Sox total: (4.5) under 51%
Indians total: (4.5) under 73%
and with available lines:
Red Sox win 63% (-118)+8
Red Sox -1.5 40% (+145)-1
under 8.5 52% (-115)-2
Red Sox under 4.5 51% (-140)-8
Indians under 4.5 73% (-140)+14
According to the crazy numbers that I've got posted up top, the Red Sox moneyline and the Indians team total under 4.5 both have value.
The game total, as my system call submitted, has no value either way.
The two plays that I was considering look to be worthwhile according to this fooling around. Of course, there's always the chance that the above numbers are skewed from reality and towards my inclinations, but I've done about as thorough a 'cap as I've done for any game this season right here...right now. If Beckett stumbles then it looks like I'll be stumbling with him. I actually would have had a system call of 60 or 61% for the 'Sox if they had taken game #4, so the results that I've got herein aren't too far off that mark.
Believe me, I am no fan of the Red Sox.
I state this because I'm actually thinking that this series may be far from over; if the 'Sox win game #5 with Beckett then they will have an excellent chance to come back at home and take this series. Several of these guys were on the team that came back to take 4 straight from the Yankees after being down 3 games, so they've done it before. I believe that Schilling could best Carmona in a game #6, but I'd be hesitant to put any money on Dice-K in a game #7. Still...'Sox have an excellent home-field edge and I presently believe that this series will go the distance. I mention all this as a series price on the Bosox, if they reopen it, might be a worthwhile play. I would need at least +300 to give it a go. I expect that the 'Sox would be -130 or -140 faves in that game #6--same as game #2--so I might be wiser to try Thursday's moneyline and then Saturday's moneyline as opposed to trying the 'Sox for the series; Matsuzaka against Westbrook, in the finale if it happens, looks to be a coin-tosser. Bosox would get the edge at the plate and would have a nice home-field edge, but Dice-K has not looked very good for the past 6 or 7 weeks now, so backing him, at likely -150 or more, seems a trifle stupid.
Hmmm...going to try one more thing...
a 3-team parlay with the Sox for the next 3 games (if such were possible) would be about:
-118 Thursday
-140? Sat-Schilling-Carmona
-150? Sun-Dice-Westbrook
----------
+427 for the 3-teamer
It looks like a +300 for the 'Sox series would NOT be enough. One would be better playing each game and then parlaying the winnings onto the next game. I might do just that, except that I'd pass on the game #7 matchup. I'm not very good at predicting series prices, though, so maybe my guess of +300 is way off. Either way, I would need better than the +427 to try such a crazy longshot bet.
I think that I'll grab that -118 while I can.
Don't know about pushing my luck with the Indians team total. Still, I'm looking at a +14 value indicator for a 73% call...better than the +8 that I get with the 63% call on the moneyline. System call was actually only 58%...
taking an average:
58%
63%
-----------
121/2= a 60.5% call on the 'Sox.
-118 has a break-even of 54.13%
60.5 - 54.13 = a 6.37 value indicator
NOT a system pick.
Beckett's 1st 2 playoff starts WERE.
Oh well...that number 37 has always been good luck for me. That was Dave Steib's number. Remember him? Still one of my favorite all-time Blue Jays.
Jeez...I've just spent the better part of the past 3 hours or so looking at this game #5.
Hope it was worth it.
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updated record
updated record
PLAYOFF RECORD
15-8 +13.24
ML 10-1 +14.58
RL 2-3 -0.9
game totals 1-2 -1.85
team totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 1-2 +0.91
system sides 15-6
system picks 4-1 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 5-8
total picks 0-2 (65%+)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
updated record
PLAYOFF RECORD
15-8 +13.24
ML 10-1 +14.58
RL 2-3 -0.9
game totals 1-2 -1.85
team totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 1-2 +0.91
system sides 15-6
system picks 4-1 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 5-8
total picks 0-2 (65%+)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last edited:
I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.
I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.
PLAYS
red sox -114 3.42/3
One of my places dropped the line; might drop more but I'm happy with the 54% BE.
I don't think that I can add much to what I've already stated.
I decided to stick with the moneyline as opposed to trying some on the Indians team total, what with it being -140.
Should be a good game. I'm enjoying the playoffs, so far.
Just would like to see my Jays make it sometime.
Maybe next year.
GL
I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.
PLAYS
red sox -114 3.42/3
One of my places dropped the line; might drop more but I'm happy with the 54% BE.
I don't think that I can add much to what I've already stated.
I decided to stick with the moneyline as opposed to trying some on the Indians team total, what with it being -140.
Should be a good game. I'm enjoying the playoffs, so far.
Just would like to see my Jays make it sometime.
Maybe next year.
GL
You are doing a hell of a job this year. A couple of things that I started to mention yesterday but didn't. I posted this early on in one of my threads, forget what the umps did in the past, they will decide before the game and work as a crew as to what zone they will use. I don't remember seeing this in the past but almost posted it yesterday. It seems they are switching the zone about the fifth inning. I didn't see the game last night but you confirmed what I was suspecting. That's the reason I quit totals after the third game I saw. I would have the game right until the 4th or 5th inning and it would go haywire. Good luck the rest of the way.
- Sep 1, 2007
- 66
- 10
- 8
GOING TO OXFORD(that'sMississippiToYouCanadians...)
GOING TO OXFORD(that'sMississippiToYouCanadians...)
GO EX GO.....
think you're raising my eyebrows with the BS pick...think he's the man(Beckett), but concern about his pitch count.....
an Sabathhia is due....guess we'll see...huh???
Me....I'm going to Tunica(again in Mississippi) then to party in the GROVE, on campus at Ol Miss.....
then back to Memphis for Beale St saturday nite.... AAAIIIIIEEEEEEEEE!!!!!
.....Your Jays can get there.....Hell, they got AJ Burnett now.....get some more pitching and you're there.....
You missed a good party for AUBURN....plus won my bet on Auburn....
GO HOGS>>>>>>BET OL MISS.....
nedp
GOING TO OXFORD(that'sMississippiToYouCanadians...)
GO EX GO.....
think you're raising my eyebrows with the BS pick...think he's the man(Beckett), but concern about his pitch count.....
an Sabathhia is due....guess we'll see...huh???
Me....I'm going to Tunica(again in Mississippi) then to party in the GROVE, on campus at Ol Miss.....
then back to Memphis for Beale St saturday nite.... AAAIIIIIEEEEEEEEE!!!!!
.....Your Jays can get there.....Hell, they got AJ Burnett now.....get some more pitching and you're there.....
You missed a good party for AUBURN....plus won my bet on Auburn....
GO HOGS>>>>>>BET OL MISS.....
nedp
Im sorry,but our top and bottom of the lineup couldnt hit a beachball thrown there way.
Francona wont even put Ellisbury in for Coco to create some kind of spark. kietly goona play tomorrow,but the the Sox,there done.
GL with your play thou.
rusty, your team is in the playoffs.
I'm jealous as, like I said, I am dying to see my Jays get in. I was living in Calgary when they won their bask-to-back series so I missed out on a lot of the celebrations (still had some...it is Canada, after all, but not quite the same as being here).
Your comments further make me think that the UNDER might be a good play. I can't see Beckett getting lit up, after all, and the Indians really only had the one inning where they scored in game #4. My concern is what Sabathia does, as far as the under is concerned.
I still like the Indians under 4.5, but yesterday's -140 has become today's -150; way too expensive considering the Indians hve had 2 innings in this series where they've plated 7 runs.
I'm sticking to my guns.
I'll be a big Red Sox fan about 16 hours from now.
hey, gsp, I'm not sure about that strike-zone change. It just seemed that Emmel was calling EVERYTHING for strikes over the first 2 or 3 innings, and then there started to be a lot more balls called shortly after that. Still...I'm not feeling too confident regarding any more playoff totals.
Another reason that I don't really care for the under in game #5 is ump Cederstrom; while I call him "even", he actually was more of an "over-ump" about 5 or 6 years ago. Since they (supposedly) enlarged the strike zone a few years back, he's become fairly even, but before that (check out his numbers from 5-6 years back and further) he played predominantly over.
I wish that I had something more useful to add, here, but I think that I would suffer some withdrawel if I had nothing to post...I don't really even have a game that I can 'cap so I'm going a little stir-crazy. I guess I could look at their game #6, working on the assumption that there will be one.
I HAVE just spent the past 2-3 hours looking at the NCAA. And I do want to tackle some NHL for Thursday, so I guess I'm not totally lacking some work for this evening.
tip of the day: look for my NHL post, which should be up in a hour or two, and FADE AWAY!!! I can't seem to pick shit right in the NHL yet. Actually I can tell you right here, right now, what I'm looking at for Thursday:
lightning moneyline
Flyers puckline
rangers moneyline
Leafs moneyline (best fade bet)
Senators puckline
I think that this contribution to the forum can safely be rated 1 stars.
Go Red Sox!!!
I'm jealous as, like I said, I am dying to see my Jays get in. I was living in Calgary when they won their bask-to-back series so I missed out on a lot of the celebrations (still had some...it is Canada, after all, but not quite the same as being here).
Your comments further make me think that the UNDER might be a good play. I can't see Beckett getting lit up, after all, and the Indians really only had the one inning where they scored in game #4. My concern is what Sabathia does, as far as the under is concerned.
I still like the Indians under 4.5, but yesterday's -140 has become today's -150; way too expensive considering the Indians hve had 2 innings in this series where they've plated 7 runs.
I'm sticking to my guns.
I'll be a big Red Sox fan about 16 hours from now.
hey, gsp, I'm not sure about that strike-zone change. It just seemed that Emmel was calling EVERYTHING for strikes over the first 2 or 3 innings, and then there started to be a lot more balls called shortly after that. Still...I'm not feeling too confident regarding any more playoff totals.
Another reason that I don't really care for the under in game #5 is ump Cederstrom; while I call him "even", he actually was more of an "over-ump" about 5 or 6 years ago. Since they (supposedly) enlarged the strike zone a few years back, he's become fairly even, but before that (check out his numbers from 5-6 years back and further) he played predominantly over.
I wish that I had something more useful to add, here, but I think that I would suffer some withdrawel if I had nothing to post...I don't really even have a game that I can 'cap so I'm going a little stir-crazy. I guess I could look at their game #6, working on the assumption that there will be one.
I HAVE just spent the past 2-3 hours looking at the NCAA. And I do want to tackle some NHL for Thursday, so I guess I'm not totally lacking some work for this evening.
tip of the day: look for my NHL post, which should be up in a hour or two, and FADE AWAY!!! I can't seem to pick shit right in the NHL yet. Actually I can tell you right here, right now, what I'm looking at for Thursday:
lightning moneyline
Flyers puckline
rangers moneyline
Leafs moneyline (best fade bet)
Senators puckline
I think that this contribution to the forum can safely be rated 1 stars.
Go Red Sox!!!
I have CLE +240 on series line (bet after gm 1). I like your Sox pick here. Even better when Sox fans are writing them off. Beckett is the playoff master. Has he ever lost a start in the playoffs? Sox get this series back to Boston because of Beckett- making a great wagering opportunity to pound CLE twice as dogs. I'm riding Sox w/you in game 5. It wouldn't break my heart if Cle won. I hate the RedSox. Beckett is the man though gotta roll w/him and then watch Bennifer and the Red Sox nation lose @ home v. Carmona
To the best of my knowledge this is only Beckett's second stint in the playoffs.
He's 2-0 this season with a 1.20 era.
In 2003 he made 5 postseason starts, 1 agaiinst the Giants, 2 against the Cubs and then 2 against the Yankees (he also had 1 relief appearance, at the Cubs):
Sept 30th @SF: worked a brilliant 7 innings, allowing only 2 hits and 1 earnie while striking out 9, but he took the loss as the Giants won 2-0.
Oct.7th @Cubs: he allowed 6 earnies over 6.1 innings but the Marlins won 9-8 (no decision for Beckett).
Oct.12 vs Cubs: complete game 2-hit shutout while walking 1 and striking out 11; Marlins won 4-0. The Marlins were down 3-1 in the series when Beckett tossed this game #5 gem.
Oct.15th @Cubs: worked a solid 4 innings of relief (1 hit, 1 earnie) after an inning of relief by Brad Penny, as Redman had a crappy start; Marlins came back to win 9-6.
Oct.21st vs Yankees: he took the loss in a 6-1 Yankees win, despite pitching quite well (7.1 IP, 3 hits, 2 earnies, 3 walks and 10 K).
Oct.25th @Yankees: the game they keep talking about. He outduelled Andy Pettitte as the Marlins took the series, winning the game 2-0; Beckett went complete, 5 hits, 2 walks and 9K.
So, he actually went 2-2 in the 2003 playoffs, but had a great 2.11 era for the 6 games. In his one stinker, on the road (uh-oh), he allowed 4 in the first then shut the Cubs down until the 6th where the Cubbies scored another pair; Marlins took the game in 11 innings. It was two 2-run homers that hurt Beckett the most, 1 in the first and 1 in the 6th. His other 2 road starts that year were brilliant.
------------------------------------------------------------------
I still think that the key to this game will be how well Sabathia performs. If the Indians win the game then I think it will play under. If the Bosox win the game, it's harder to tell. Hmmm...C.C. is bound to throw better, wouldn't ya think? He was good all season long, even finishing the year the quite strong (Indians won his final 6 regular season starts).
If I had good reason to suspect that something was wrong with C.C. then I would add to this play, but like Beckett's bounceback from a horrible game #1 performance in the 2003 NLCS, Sabathia could very well stymie the Bosox today.
I preferred Beckett in game #1 and I prefer him today. Indians being home is more of a concern for me than the man on the mound for Cleveland.
Bosox did have a losing record on the road to lefties (13-15), and the Indians OPS at home was 50 points higher than it was on the road.
Should be a hell of a game.
He's 2-0 this season with a 1.20 era.
In 2003 he made 5 postseason starts, 1 agaiinst the Giants, 2 against the Cubs and then 2 against the Yankees (he also had 1 relief appearance, at the Cubs):
Sept 30th @SF: worked a brilliant 7 innings, allowing only 2 hits and 1 earnie while striking out 9, but he took the loss as the Giants won 2-0.
Oct.7th @Cubs: he allowed 6 earnies over 6.1 innings but the Marlins won 9-8 (no decision for Beckett).
Oct.12 vs Cubs: complete game 2-hit shutout while walking 1 and striking out 11; Marlins won 4-0. The Marlins were down 3-1 in the series when Beckett tossed this game #5 gem.
Oct.15th @Cubs: worked a solid 4 innings of relief (1 hit, 1 earnie) after an inning of relief by Brad Penny, as Redman had a crappy start; Marlins came back to win 9-6.
Oct.21st vs Yankees: he took the loss in a 6-1 Yankees win, despite pitching quite well (7.1 IP, 3 hits, 2 earnies, 3 walks and 10 K).
Oct.25th @Yankees: the game they keep talking about. He outduelled Andy Pettitte as the Marlins took the series, winning the game 2-0; Beckett went complete, 5 hits, 2 walks and 9K.
So, he actually went 2-2 in the 2003 playoffs, but had a great 2.11 era for the 6 games. In his one stinker, on the road (uh-oh), he allowed 4 in the first then shut the Cubs down until the 6th where the Cubbies scored another pair; Marlins took the game in 11 innings. It was two 2-run homers that hurt Beckett the most, 1 in the first and 1 in the 6th. His other 2 road starts that year were brilliant.
------------------------------------------------------------------
I still think that the key to this game will be how well Sabathia performs. If the Indians win the game then I think it will play under. If the Bosox win the game, it's harder to tell. Hmmm...C.C. is bound to throw better, wouldn't ya think? He was good all season long, even finishing the year the quite strong (Indians won his final 6 regular season starts).
If I had good reason to suspect that something was wrong with C.C. then I would add to this play, but like Beckett's bounceback from a horrible game #1 performance in the 2003 NLCS, Sabathia could very well stymie the Bosox today.
I preferred Beckett in game #1 and I prefer him today. Indians being home is more of a concern for me than the man on the mound for Cleveland.
Bosox did have a losing record on the road to lefties (13-15), and the Indians OPS at home was 50 points higher than it was on the road.
Should be a hell of a game.
My Take is this.DR Fade can take this into acct also.
This is how most of Boston is feeling right now.
There bottom of the order is to put it simple awful.Yes they have Beckett pitching,but if they cant hit,there gonna lose anyway.
The Boston fans wanna see Elisbury in the lineup instead of Coco Crisp.The manager is being loyal to not only his players,but also management.
Francona is being stubburn ,and to be honest up til this pt. in his career here ive had no complaints with his managing until now.Hes slowly strangling our team to death and not giving us a least a chance to win this series .
Taking nothing away from Clev. cause they are a good team.Boston pitching has been horrible also.
Schilling layed an egg.Can see why they didnt extend his contract earlier this yr.
DK has done ok in my opinion because of the ajustment period etc.15 wins is nothing to sneeze at.
Having said all this I hope you guys are right.
Ill be rooting for them.
It just seems to me that there getting out managed,out hit,and out pitched this series .
GL!
early word on game #6
early word on game #6
I've got my report ready, but I'm going to hold it back until I've got some time to fine-tune it.
I'm looking at a call of somehwere in the neighbourhood of 53-56% on the Bosox.
The first line that I've seen is Boston -125.
-125's have a 56% break-even mark, so I don't think that there will be much value on EITHER side; it looks like the line will pretty much match my 'cap.
In other words, my contribution for game #6 isn't going to be very meaningful, unless, like me, you decide to just sit on your money.
Both starters were very bad in game #2.
The question as to which one can turn things around is one that I cannot answer. At least not at the moment.
Schilling has more experience but, at this stage of their careers, I'd say that Carmona has the better stuff.
Bosox home-field and a small bonus for momentum will comprise the entire edge that I'll be posting...I'll have a very small edge to the Indians pitching and a very small edge to the Red Sox hitting, making things basically even before the home-field edge and a tiny edge for momentum (Indians still lead the series and momentum has swung quite easily in this series).
Just thought I'd post my early thoughts for game #6 as I've been getting a lot of action in this thread, so far in this series.
Been up more than 24 hours so I'll have to fine-tune what I've got for game #6 tomorrow. Going out for the day so it likely won't be up until the evening. Like I stated, I'm looking at a call of Boston 56 or 57% MAX., so, in my eyes, there will be no value on either side.
If you've got a hunch then go for it.
I wouldn't bet the farm on either side though, if it were my money.
GL
P.S.
ump DeMuth is basically even/slightly over (has played over in 4 of the past 5 years, with a rather low K% this season). I tried the under in game #2 and it cost me. The under is my only real lean for this one, but it is not very appealing for a number of reasons, most of which lie in that game #2 result. Besides, game #5 almost went over and look at the game that Beckett threw; Sabathia was pretty solid early on as well.
I think that the smart money should pass all 'round for this one.
Game #7, if it materializes, also looks to be a tough call. I might try the Indians at +140 or more for that one, but it would be small.
I think that my money will chillax until the Series.
I'll be looking to ride Francis and Jimenez when they take the hill for the Rockies.
That's the word for now.
early word on game #6
I've got my report ready, but I'm going to hold it back until I've got some time to fine-tune it.
I'm looking at a call of somehwere in the neighbourhood of 53-56% on the Bosox.
The first line that I've seen is Boston -125.
-125's have a 56% break-even mark, so I don't think that there will be much value on EITHER side; it looks like the line will pretty much match my 'cap.
In other words, my contribution for game #6 isn't going to be very meaningful, unless, like me, you decide to just sit on your money.
Both starters were very bad in game #2.
The question as to which one can turn things around is one that I cannot answer. At least not at the moment.
Schilling has more experience but, at this stage of their careers, I'd say that Carmona has the better stuff.
Bosox home-field and a small bonus for momentum will comprise the entire edge that I'll be posting...I'll have a very small edge to the Indians pitching and a very small edge to the Red Sox hitting, making things basically even before the home-field edge and a tiny edge for momentum (Indians still lead the series and momentum has swung quite easily in this series).
Just thought I'd post my early thoughts for game #6 as I've been getting a lot of action in this thread, so far in this series.
Been up more than 24 hours so I'll have to fine-tune what I've got for game #6 tomorrow. Going out for the day so it likely won't be up until the evening. Like I stated, I'm looking at a call of Boston 56 or 57% MAX., so, in my eyes, there will be no value on either side.
If you've got a hunch then go for it.
I wouldn't bet the farm on either side though, if it were my money.
GL
P.S.
ump DeMuth is basically even/slightly over (has played over in 4 of the past 5 years, with a rather low K% this season). I tried the under in game #2 and it cost me. The under is my only real lean for this one, but it is not very appealing for a number of reasons, most of which lie in that game #2 result. Besides, game #5 almost went over and look at the game that Beckett threw; Sabathia was pretty solid early on as well.
I think that the smart money should pass all 'round for this one.
Game #7, if it materializes, also looks to be a tough call. I might try the Indians at +140 or more for that one, but it would be small.
I think that my money will chillax until the Series.
I'll be looking to ride Francis and Jimenez when they take the hill for the Rockies.
That's the word for now.
