An "instructive" line this week.

[TheShrimp]

I'm not on this one yet, but I think it's a very interesting game "handicapping" wise.

STL is a 7 point underdog this week (7.5 at SIA). So far this year, they've been a favorite at DEN and TB and a double digit favorite at home against NYG and DALL.

I don't recall ever seeing a turn around like that. If you think lines are based solely on X's and O's and not public sentiment then you need to look no further than STL. There's no team in the league that should go from a 12 point favorite one week to a 7 point dog the next. Why did STL do it? For one, they shouldn't have been a 12 pt fave last week, and for two, they shouldn't be a 7 point dog this week (even if they lost their QB). That's almost equivalent, in one sense, to seeing a team go from being a 10 point fave to a 10 point dog in one week.

While I thought the lines in their first 4 games were based largely on public sentiment and not really X's and O's, I think this one is the same way IN THE OTHER DIRECTION.

Everybody think they're a genious now because they're pointing out the Rams are done. If you look at the Rams, they've been in every game this year, and what have the Niner's done? Squeaked by NYG and didn't cover, lost at home to DEN, won by 10 against a questionable wash team. We're not talking worldbeaters here. They were arguably worse against DEN at home than STL was at Mile High.

Now, the big question mark for me is STL's psyche, but they're so cocky that I don't think its a problem. I'm not worried about Martin (24/37 262 1 1 last week). I've always thought most quarterbacks would be as effective as warner in that offense.

Don't be surprised if STL turns up as a Goldman play this week.

I'm not on it yet but I think I will be before long.

TheShrimp

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I couldn't agree more. Maybe with Warner out, Faulk will finally start getting some carries. Also, with the ducks that have been coming out of Warner's hand this year, is there that much of a downgrade with Martin?

 

[MrChristo]

I believe this is the first time the Rams are dogs in 57 games

And suddenly it's +7!!

Totally agree

 

[Valuist]

I can't remember the last time I've seen that big of a price turnaround in the pros, either. The public perception is that its Warner's team, when in reality, its Faulk's team. And if you look at their 4 losses, they really weren't blown out in any of them. The TB score is a little deceptive since it was close late in the game and TB got an INT return for a late score. I think the under may be the better play, however, since Mariucci has gotten more conservative since late last season and I would expect Faulk to get far more rushing attempts this week.

 

[acehistr8]

I see this game as the chance to get back to what made you, Faulk getting 25-30 touches. I dont have a lean on the game yet, but I really think this could be a wake up call to the Rams. Martin is more than adequate as a backup, and I mean, how adequate do you need to be with Bruce Holt and Faulk catching your passes?

 

[Z-MAN]

I agree with you guys as well, but if anything, I will play the Niners. They had a bye week, they are at home, and they are playing against a team that sure hasn't played well this year.

I think their will be a ton of action on St. Louis catching the points. When I feel this way, I typically go the other side,

Aren't Garcia and Owens due for big games also?????

Valuist - I think your on with the under play. That looked good to me as well..... :shrug:

 

[Stewy]

49ers will exploit that pathetic offensive line of the Rams, San Fran after a bye week at home will play exceptionaly well on defense. Don't touch it!:shrug:

Like the under as well here

 

[MrChristo]

Pretty sure there are some big-ass winds forecast for gametime in San Fran.
Should also favour a (relatively) low scoring game.

 

[THE KOD]

I think their will be a ton of action on St. Louis catching the points. When I feel this way, I typically go the other side,

as jessy told me earlier this week, go with your gut ! Your guts will give you a edge usually .

Good luck!

Scott-Atlanta

 

[TheShrimp]

as jessy told me earlier this week, go with your gut ! Your guts will give you a edge usually .

If this were true, almost everybody would have an edge. And who's Jessy? The guy from Mexico? Every sucker I know "goes with his gut" -- that's practically the definition of what a sucker is. I usually have a look at what my gut is telling me and go the opposite way. It works for me most years.

When I started this thread as an "instructive" line thread, I meant to get away from some of the talk that has turned up in it.

As Z-Man wrote:
"I agree with you guys as well, but if anything, I will play the Niners. They had a bye week, they are at home, and they are playing against a team that sure hasn't played well this year."

**All of these thing might point to why SF is a 7 point favorite, but none if it points to why they're a good play at -7. Look in the "bye week" thread. Home faves off byes are terrible ATS -- in part because the books know people THINK they should cover and they can shade the line to get you. That's the main thing I'm trying to say here -- the bye weeks makes the 7 LOOK attractive, but that doesn't mean its a good bet. The bye week allows the book to hang a higher number because they know people will bite.

"I think their will be a ton of action on St. Louis catching the points. When I feel this way, I typically go the other side, "

**I doubt it. STL bettors have now been burned 4 weeks in a row. No way is the public on STL this week. Besides that, the lines have gone up indicating the money's been on SF.

"Aren't Garcia and Owens due for big games also?????"

**I don't even know where to come at this from. Isn't STL due for a win? Isn't NE due to stop the run? Is there a rule I'm unaware of that athletes can only perfom below their expectations a certain number of weeks?

----------------------

I was trying to point out in this thread that lines are often not based on X's and O's but rather on ways to get the public to take a particular team. The line-setters know more about matchups than most any of us. They know that either STL-DALL (+12)was "wrong" or that STL-SF (-7) is "wrong". That's the main point here -- X's and O's don't set the line, but rather public perception sets the line. The more times you can figure out which side the book wants you to be on, and you have the discipline to go the other way, the better off you'll be.

You need to look no further than the history of the goldman experiment or Joe Lupo himself who told Nolan Dalla (paraphrasing here), "we definitely try to split the public and the pros." If it weren't so, you wouldn't see the results in the goldman experiment so skewed against the bettors. We're not talking about people who are down because of the vig. We're talking about people hitting games ATS at 35-40% and NO ONE hitting at 60-65%.

And someone wants to tell me its a good idea to "go with your gut"?

Look at valuist's post today about the public in week 5. Some website he looks at has 22 people on KC and 1 person on the Jets. Do you really think the books screwed up this bad? Oh, they may get burned on it this weekend. And several times a year they'll have the shit end of the stick, but more times than not do you want to be on the side of the book (with all that jet's action)or the side of the schlubs (with all that KC action)?

I'm sure there are people out there who think you'd have to get a jets bet from their cold dead fingers this weekend, but sometimes that's exactly the way your bookie wants it.

Look around this site and see how many people every week take a team because "they're mad" or "they're due" or because the other team gave them bulletin board material. You'd think at a site where people care about capping games and sharing information we wouldn't see so much of that, but there you are.

 

[HeadHunter]

instructive

instructive

well said. that's why i only bet small amounts of $$.

 

[thunderdoll]

I'm looking at the Jets and KC and after learning a hard lesson on Monday Night I am leaning towards the dreadful Jets this week. KC has a big division game against the Chargers next week and might be looking past this game. Also change in QB for the Jets could spark the offense. Still not strong enough for me to play it though. But strong enough to make it a no play for me.

 

[x2man]

Great Speech!!!
Hey how about Monday Nite, Balt coming off 3 games only scoring 2 or 3 TD, the Public ate it all up. All the comments on ESPN, ABC and everywhere were talking about this. I know, because I heard and belived them. The under and Denver that all i heard. Well the little devil talked me into take the wrong side again. I know that after monday's game i have learned my lesson.
You are right, If you can find which team the Line Makers want you to wager on and bet the opposite side, more than likely you will come out ahead.
My 2Cents

 

[TheShrimp]

Re: instructive

Re: instructive

well said. that's why i only bet small amounts of $$.

What I said doesn't relate to this. I'm not saying that you can't find an edge worth betting money on. I'm just pointing out a different way of finding the edges.

"small amounts of $$" means different things to everybody. No matter what you bet, there's probalby someone out there paying that in VIG every week.

I used to bet $1 per game with my old man when I was 15. I used to yell and scream and jump up and down watching my teams play. Over a buck.

 

[TheShrimp]

Great Speech!!!
Hey how about Monday Nite, Balt coming off 3 games only scoring 2 or 3 TD, the Public ate it all up. All the comments on ESPN, ABC and everywhere were talking about this. I know, because I heard and belived them. The under and Denver that all i heard. Well the little devil talked me into take the wrong side again. I know that after monday's game i have learned my lesson.
You are right, If you can find which team the Line Makers want you to wager on and bet the opposite side, more than likely you will come out ahead.
My 2Cents

MN was a funny game. Usually when I see a -7.5 or -8, I think the book is begging me to take the dog and so I look to the fave. But the fave was so public in this one it kind of scared me.

I'm done with totals. When it comes to totals, I'm the square you guys should be fading.

[Not trying to say I'm a great "side" guy either, just that I have a better feel for it. I'm off to a good start, and I've had a couple good seasons lately, but I'll be the first to tell you it can turn around in a heartbeat. Shoot, KC loses that crazy one in week 1 or det and buff don't get the back door in week 3 and I'm sitting at even money right now.]

 

[gardenweasel]

if stictly fading the public was a winning philosophy

if stictly fading the public was a winning philosophy

everybody on an internet site would be a millionaire.....all you hear is "the squares"....well,i`ve got news for you and it might come as a shock....if you aren`t taking book,you are pretty much a square....i think 75% of the guys on here check out wagerline....is that all there is?.......unless you are extremely disciplined,and handicap to the extreme like the nolan dalla`s of the world,you will probably lose more than you will win... and,please,it`s not necessary to chime in and testify how much money you win....shrimp,i `m sure you are a very nice fella`,but you sound a tad full of yourself lately,bud....

 

[gardenweasel]

shrimp

shrimp

apologies...sorry for coming on a little strong....you are a good,knowledgable guy to talk sports with....had a rough day down here today....my point,in a nutshell is,successful gambling isn`t usually just fading the public,playing trends,or gut feelings....it`s a potpourri of all these things and more....and no matter how much research is done(you can cap a game or an event from every angle),it won`t matter...that`s why i think,the most important aspect of successful capping is moneymgmt,hands down...just some thoughts....from somebody who had many very unsuccessful years back in the day....best of luck and interesting thread...again sorry about the stupid comments.

 

[MrChristo]

I've just read what Shrimp wrote for the 3rd time incase I've missed something, but I'm sure I haven't.

I think what he is getting at (forgive me for speaking for you here, Shrimp, and feel free to tell me to **** right off if I'm wrong!), that books DO come out with lines where you just KNOW what they WANT you to play.

Just 2 off the top of my head from a couple of weeks ago......
Cleveland @ Tenn...line was set @ 37.5, begging for 'under' money...game goes over easily.

Atlanta -7.5 to Cinci....again begging for people to take the dog with the hook....again, Atlanta covers easily.

I'm sure there's been more examples this year.

This has nothing to do with 'public money' or 'squares' as such, it's simply showing where the books WANT people to put there money. Obviously more often than not people oblige.

I don't have a strong opinion on this game, and to be honest, I don't think the books do either, otherwise it would have opened 1/2 point either side of 7 (IMO).

What constantly amuses me about this board (and therefore the public as a whole) is the amount of people willing to play 50/50 games!
I've played 14 games for the entire season so far, and I see people playing upwards of 20 a week!!!
No-one can possibly tell me that they can have a serious edge in bloody near every game on the board! (I realise some are HT bets and props, but still )

gardenweassel says the key to winning is money management, and I agree....but the key word is 'disipline'.
I believe the main key to turning a profit is simply NOT TO PLAY LOSERS.
I you pick 10 winners a week, but also play 8 losing games then what was the point?
Now obviously no-one plays a loser deliberately, but how many times after losing do you (anyone) get angry at yourself for playing a game you knew was going to be tight

As GSP always says, 1-0 is better than 4-3

Edit: for some spelling

 

[gardenweasel]

g.l.this weekend,bud

g.l.this weekend,bud

 

[THE KOD]

Re: if stictly fading the public was a winning philosophy

Re: if stictly fading the public was a winning philosophy

everybody on an internet site would be a millionaire.....all you hear is "the squares"....well,i`ve got news for you and it might come as a shock....if you aren`t taking book,you are pretty much a square....i think 75% of the guys on here check out wagerline....is that all there is?.......unless you are extremely disciplined,and handicap to the extreme like the nolan dalla`s of the world,you will probably lose more than you will win... and,please,it`s not necessary to chime in and testify how much money you win....shrimp,i `m sure you are a very nice fella`,but you sound a tad full of yourself lately,bud....

I think your on to something garden. Not that shrimp is full of himself lately, but the part about there is more to it than just fading the public. I am on a quest myself to figure it out so I can throw some more down hard ! I dont like throwing money away though. I got to be more sure of things. It will take time. I am a patient man. Shrimp you do have some good points though.


Scott-Atlanta