An "instructive" line this week.

[THE KOD]

Re: Re: instructive

Re: Re: instructive

I'm not saying that you can't find an edge worth betting money on. I'm just pointing out a different way of finding the edges.

I am writing that down.

The journey to finding the "edge" is on. The answers are in here. We can do this.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[THE KOD]

This has nothing to do with 'public money' or 'squares' as such, it's simply showing where the books WANT people to put there money. Obviously more often than not people oblige.


What constantly amuses me about this board (and therefore the public as a whole) is the amount of people willing to play 50/50 games!

I've played 14 games for the entire season so far, and I see people playing upwards of 20 a week!!!

If the public and square money is not the answer to the edge then we got to look deeper. We cant waster our time looking at things that dont work. Damn It I want to win and I want to win now!

They dont cap the games at 50 / 50 MrChristo or they wouldnt be on it.


I think your right about keeping the number of games down. I learned that lesson last year playing 10-12 college games on Saturday and then on Sunday getting in on 5-10 more. Its nuts. And no way you can make good decisions. That is not the way to make money at sports wagering.

Our quest to find the edge is on. We cannot be defeated. Victory will be ours. I love the smell of blood in my morning coffee.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[THE KOD]

Re: Re: instructive

Re: Re: instructive

I used to bet $1 per game with my old man when I was 15. I used to yell and scream and jump up and down watching my teams play. Over a buck.

So that was your introduction into sports wagering ? Do you wish it would have been later in life ? Seems like as a kid of 15 you got money on it , it takes away something. Especially baseball.

I remember sitting with my grandfather we called him Pa. He would pull up the chairs around this desk he sat at and we would listen to the Red Sox games. He would drink his balantine ale and I would sit there not saying much but enjoying the game.
If I had laid a buck on the games then I think it would have changed my enjoyement. Just my thoughts.

Thanks


Scott-Atlanta

 

[Doctor Baseball]

JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJA

JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJA

:lol: :lol: :lol:
Thanks for the laugh Shrimp, dont want get into a verbal fight with someone I dont know (and I dont want to) but I guess I have the right to make some points:

1.- Yes Im Jessy, the guy from Mexico.

2.- sucker: 1.- One that sucks. 2. Slang. A person who is easily deceived. 3. A lollipop. I didnt find a definitation about someone that go with his guts, but who Iam for trying to teach english lessons to an american (maybe I should buy another dictionary).

3.- After reading your first post 4 times, I didnt found anything Instructive:
a) " STL is a 7 point underdog this week (7.5 at SIA). So far this year, they've been a favorite at DEN and TB and a double digit favorite at home against NYG and DALL. " Well what line do you like? pk? -3? How many weeks do you need to realize that THIS rams sucks? As I said a couple of weeks ago, people only handicap the QB, WR and RB, an offense also have 5 big guys that people who now about football call them Offensive line, and also a team has something I guess that is called deffense.

4.- Whats the point of starting a new thread if you are going to bash absolutely everyone that post a reply?. Does that means that we are not as wise as you are and that nobody deserve to post in your "instructive" thread.

5.- By the way, had you been talking to my little brother lately?. I mean because you sound exactly like him with your complete season analysis "and what have the Niner's done? Squeaked by NYG and didn't cover, lost at home to DEN, won by 10 against a questionable wash team. We're not talking worldbeaters here. They were arguably worse against DEN at home than STL was at Mile High.". The whole paragraph make me laugh, but my best part was the last sentence. So, let me get this straight HOUSTON beats Dallas, Dallas beats Titans but, Titans beats Eagles which beats Houston the team that have only one win (vs Dallas) which by the way beats Rams, the same rams that lost vs Denver, a team that lost vs ravens on MNF, but the ravens DAMN now im more confused, maybe you can help me to get this straight Shrimp.

ps. My last 3 weeks play had been winners, also my MNF system is 4-0, Including last monday nught football, which was a big play for me (as I said before the game started on my thread). So please dont come here and try to play the smart ass guy role.

:moon:

 

[THE KOD]

Re: JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJA

Re: JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJA

:lol: :lol: :lol:
Thanks for the laugh Shrimp, dont want get into a verbal fight with someone I dont know (and I dont want to) but I guess I have the right to make some points:

1.- Yes Im Jessy, the guy from Mexico.

2.- sucker: 1.- One that sucks. 2. Slang. A person who is easily deceived. 3. A lollipop. I didnt find a definitation about someone that go with his guts, but who Iam for trying to teach english lessons to an american (maybe I should buy another dictionary).

3.- After reading your first post 4 times, I didnt found anything Instructive:

ps. My last 3 weeks play had been winners, also my MNF system is 4-0, Including last monday nught football, which was a big play for me (as I said before the game started on my thread). So please dont come here and try to play the smart ass guy role.

:moon:

Jessy ............I am laughing my ass off in here. Great Post. I will say one thing for you Jessy you got guts ! I think you understand the english better than me also !

Good Luck with your picks !

Lets see if Shrimp will respond.


Oh Mr Shrimp !



Scott-Atlanta

 

[SingleMalt]

It has been a while since I have posted anywhere due to my "habit" has been put on the shelf with new found fatherhood but I am starting to find some time to 'cap some games and have been lurking here for a while.

This thread has a lot of good points that have been stated but I want to comment on something things posted in here.

MrChristo correctly observed that:

"What constantly amuses me about this board (and therefore the public as a whole) is the amount of people willing to play 50/50 games! "


Scott-Atlanta (looking for that edge) replies with:

"They dont cap the games at 50 / 50 MrChristo or they wouldnt be on it."


Scott, please do not take this the wrong way as I am not looking to start any negativity, but I think there is a few things wrong with your reply.

First, I believe that the general "betting" public would place money on a 50/50 wager. A 50/50 chance on a game to "get some action and make it interesting" is appealing to alot of people. I have seen this with people who enjoy "gambling" all the time. I have even gotten into this mentality myself. Ex. This past Super Bowl, people were betting each other on the coin flip, starting kickoff goes left/right or right/left, first reception by an odd/even number player. and countless others. I think this mentality passes over to the "public opinion" on the actually sporting events. People will bet on 4 games they believe to be 50/50, expecting to win 2 and hoping to do better. This takes be to my second point.

I believe that a majority of the public money is bet without "capping" anything. I always look at the opening lines and always seem to think on a couple games, "Wow, that line looks way off. I can't believe that TeamABC is only giving x points to TeamDEF. And look here, TeamGHI is getting y points from TeamJKL. That looks really good." I think I just "capped" the KC/NYJ and Monday's GB/Chic games for a large amount of bettors.

No matter how many times it has been said, money management is the key to longevity. Cutting you number of plays to only the most advantagous is key. But I have learned that while "Joe Public" can spout off at the water cooler on Monday that he knew "TeamMNO was overrated and that was proven this week and TeamPRS was definitely due for a breakout game", he will also go on about the 3-4 games that were "can-you-believe-that-TeamTUV-played-so-well and TeamWYZ-looked-so-bad".

Never overestimate "Joe Public"

 

[THE KOD]

This thread has a lot of good points that have been stated but I want to comment on something things posted in here.

MrChristo correctly observed that:

"What constantly amuses me about this board (and therefore the public as a whole) is the amount of people willing to play 50/50 games! "

Scott-Atlanta (looking for that edge) replies with:

"They dont cap the games at 50 / 50 MrChristo or they wouldnt be on it."

Scott, please do not take this the wrong way as I am not looking to start any negativity, but I think there is a few things wrong with your reply.

First, I believe that the general "betting" public would place money on a 50/50 wager. A 50/50 chance on a game to "get some action and make it interesting" is appealing to alot of people. I have seen this with people who enjoy "gambling" all the time.
This past Super Bowl, people were betting each other on the coin flip, starting kickoff goes left/right or right/left, first reception by an odd/even number player. and countless others. I think this mentality passes over to the "public opinion" on the actually sporting events.

No matter how many times it has been said, money management is the key to longevity. Cutting you number of plays to only the most advantagous is key.

Single

I wont take anything the wrong way usually. I am always up for a discussion on my quest to win at sports wagering. I know ppl that bet on the 50 / 50 coin flips also, but you wont see me doing it. I want to win at sports wagering.

The money management thing is fine as long as your not playing 30 games a week. If you do that books love that money management action. They just take it from you more gradually. I dont like that idea. Have you heard of my Throw it Down theory that I am working on ?


Good luck


Scott- Atlanta

 

[SingleMalt]

Scott - first off, No, I please explain the ThrowItDown theory...

Money Management is fine as long as you are not playing 30 games a week...


If you are refering to 30 NFL plays a week (sides, totals, moneylines, half lines)...remember that money management is not only related to your bet size, but to the expected outcome of your bet.

30 plays a week in late November with college football and basketball, NFL, NBA and NHL may be light if you handicap all of these sports. In the height of NCAA Bball, 30 plays a week is normal.

It took me a while to get a feeling for baseball side betting due to the money line. Randy Johnson at -300 each start needs to win at somewhere around 77 percent of the time to break even (quick math, so it may be slightly higher or lower). If you capped the game and found that the BigUnit should win 77% of the time, this wager becomes a 50/50 wager.

But, wait...I ramble...

My point is that 30 plays per week on the NFL is not proper money mangement. Unless you have a method that can pick at 60% for sides, totals, moneylines and half time lines for all the NFL games...

If you can pick 4 NFL games at a 75% clip (don't we wish we could), and bet a flat 110/100 bet. You would win and average of +190 each week. Not +190 each week, but over the course of a large sample set, you should make money over the long run.

Now lets add 10 games at a 60% expectancy...over the long haul, you could expect to win +350...better that the +190 but risking more (not to get into bell curves and standard deviations). Still, betting 14 games SHOULD be more profitable each week than betting the 4 games.

Now lets add 36 games at a 50% expectancy...27-23 is our expected outcome with a profit of +170. So here we are risking a lot more ($5500) for an expeced profit of $170. Granted, we could get "lucky" and win a bunch...but we could also get taken to the cleaners...Much better to risk $440 with an expectation of +190 than risk $5500 with an expectation of +170.

Money Management come in when you look at the second set. Is it worth the added money outlay ($1540) to win +350? The answer to this question is how close are you to picking 3/4 and then picking 6/10. If you can average 9/14 picks...GIVE ME THE KEY...

 

[Doctor Baseball]

Scott thanks, and I hope this will be my last post on this thread, I really felt that shrimp was acting as a racist, with his "the guy from Mexico" I try not to get involve into another people threads, but this one, at some point was a little about me. What I really hate the most, is that people come here and try to act as if they know everything, and the worst part for me was the shrimp?s post telling everyone that their comments were useless, like if he knows all. Thanks for the support scott, and my experience tel me that shrimp would not reply anything until the rams game its over, if he won careful, but if he lost, ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST. KENNEDY INFO memories anyone????????????

 

[THE KOD]

Scott - first off, No, I please explain the ThrowItDown theory...
Money Management is fine as long as you are not playing 30 games a week...

If you are refering to 30 NFL plays a week (sides, totals, moneylines, half lines)...remember that money management is not only related to your bet size, but to the expected outcome of your bet.

30 plays a week in late November with college football and basketball, NFL, NBA and NHL may be light if you handicap all of these sports. In the height of NCAA Bball, 30 plays a week is normal.

.

With that many games you think are so necessary to a money management style, I would have to say that may fall into the dr freeze catagory of the flat out fool theory.

The Throw it Down principle is.......ahhhh nevermind.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[THE KOD]

Scott thanks, and I hope this will be my last post on this thread, I really felt that shrimp was acting as a racist, with his "the guy from Mexico" I try not to get involve into another people threads, but this one, at some point was a little about me. What I really hate the most, is that people come here and try to act as if they know everything, and the worst part for me was the shrimp?s post telling everyone that their comments were useless, like if he knows all. Thanks for the support scott, and my experience tel me that shrimp would not reply anything until the rams game its over, if he won careful, but if he lost, ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST. KENNEDY INFO memories anyone????????????

yeh I know what you mean Jessy. No one knows everything. We are supposed to share what we know for the benifit of all. Maybe shrimp had a bad day. Maybe shrimp was two sheets into the wind. Maybe shrimp is just a nut. Not sure.

Good Luck Sunday !


Throw it the hell Down !


Scott-Atlanta

 

[TheShrimp]

too much to even respond to here. damn. I love it.

Anyway, I haven't been online since yesterday and won't be again till monday. GLTA this weekend. I did take the time to check in today because I thought I might have ruffled a few feathers.

just a few things...

jessy -- the racist suggestion has to be addressed: it was a question about who said that. i didn't check if there was another Jessy, and so I asked, "the guy from mexico?" I probably pissed you off for making a statement I compared to a sucker statement, but racist is a pretty heavy term to be throwing around after I said something as simple as "the guy from mexico?" The main point was that "going with your gut" was really the complete opposite of what I was trying to say here and I don't think its great advice. Keep in mind that "sucker" shouldn't be personal. Its like calling someone a fish at poker. Its a "gambling criticism", not a "personal criticism".

weas -- you can call me out for being full of myself -- I don't give a crap. I was really just trying to get a dialog going here. OK -- I've hit some good picks lately, but I'm the first one to admit when I get lucky.

For those with short memories -- I was writing just as much crap here while I was handing out losers trying to cap some baseball games this year. I've called myself out for missing fights all the time. I post quite a bit of stuff while winning and losing and if people think I'm full of myself because I do it while winning then give me props for humility for doing it while I'm losing. How big was I on Rahman over Holyfield? Mosley over Forrest II? If I start losing on NFL, you'll see me here just as often, telling you my plays every week and trying to figure out what I'm doing wrong.

admittedly -- i responded a little sarcastically and smart-ass to a couple posters. I tend to have thick skin (esp on the net) and always kind of think others are the same.

Fact of the matter is, I like handicapping NFL. I've been doing it for a long time. I like talking about it, thinking about it, arguing about it, so I like all the comments.

And "NO" to whoever asked if I felt I missed out on sports because I've been gambling on it for so long. My whole life I've related to the NFL through point spreads. I remember asking a kid in 6th grade what the spread was on a game and he said something like, "how do i know. they haven't played it yet." I just thought every kid knew those things. I think trying to guess winners against spreads makes watching games more fun.

Capping's not as easy as just fading the public. I didn't try to imply that it was. That can be as unsound a technique, especially done blindly without solid reasons, as anything else. I don't have this game figured out. If I did, I'd quit my damn job, buy a lap top and go live on the beach. I don't know if anyone does.

Anyway, thanks for the criticism. Sorry to have offended anyone. I wish Jessy hadn't dropped the "R" bomb over a pretty innocent statement but what are ya gonna do?

GLTA this weekend.

TheShrimp

 

[THE KOD]

OK I am cool with everything you said Shrimp. I went back and read it and I dont believe you were being that R word thing either.

OK back to the business of making money!


Throw it the f.... Down !



Scott-Atlanta

 

[gardenweasel]

shrimp

shrimp

that was sheer stupidity on my part...i had a set-to with some bozo in a bar when i stopped for one beer friday....and i came home with a lousy attitude,....i respect your analysis and enjoy your boxing repartee.....hope you won`t hold one case of foot-in-mouth against me... as you see in my posts,i had an attack of guilt immediately succeeding my comments....not my style....g.l.

 

[THE KOD]

Re: shrimp

Re: shrimp

as you see in my posts,i had an attack of guilt immediately succeeding my comments....not my style....g.l.

yeh ok garden but I noticed you didnt edit it out. you let it ride so that says alot to me.

We have been doing really good lately about not having alot of the bs back and forth . Damn I kinda miss it .


Scott-Atlanta

 

[gardenweasel]

scott

scott

it wasn`t addressed to you....your welcome to your opinion...but that`s between myself and shrimp...capiece?

 

[jmizeus]

nice write-up! a really weird scenario here seeing the rams being such big dogs! but now with warner out that is main reason line has changed drastically! also who have the rams stopped-no one,and there offense looks terrible. nfl definitely caught up with this team! the way i see this game as i would not touch this except i do have san fran on a ml-parlay

stlouis wins outright or gets blown out! i cant see them staying with 9ers so i have to lean this game as a blow-out

gl!

 

[THE KOD]

OK -- I've hit some good picks lately, but I'm the first one to admit when I get lucky.

admittedly -- i responded a little sarcastically and smart-ass to a couple posters. I tend to have thick skin (esp on the net) and always kind of think others are the same.

Fact of the matter is, I like handicapping NFL. I've been doing it for a long time. I like talking about it, thinking about it, arguing about it, so I like all the comments.


TheShrimp

and your the first one to dissappear when you get unlucky ?

:moon: :moon: :moon: :moon: :moon:


I think its a full moon out there.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[Doctor Baseball]

 

[THE KOD]

TheShrimp

The gut play was the niners and oh wow did they hand the Rams their jockstraps.

Maybe gut players arn't suckers after all.


Scott-Atlanta