(Another) What am I missing here?

[Penguinfan]

The early line is Pats -5.5 and O/U 51 in the AFC Championship game. Seems low, like really low. I know (as YYZ has pointed out multiple times) the home favorites were on a roll and Vegas is probably not doing well/not doing as well as they usually do but this looks like another easy one to take the favorite and the over.

The Steelers will probably score on most drives and a lot of them will likely bog down to FG's like we saw yesterday and Brady may score on EVERY drive as he carves up that Steeler secondary.

5.5 seems awfully low, I would have expected that line at 8 or 9 and still taken NE.

What am I missing?

 

[T]

The early line is Pats -5.5 and O/U 51 in the AFC Championship game. Seems low, like really low. I know (as YYZ has pointed out multiple times) the home favorites were on a roll and Vegas is probably not doing well/not doing as well as they usually do but this looks like another easy one to take the favorite and the over.

The Steelers will probably score on most drives and a lot of them will likely bog down to FG's like we saw yesterday and Brady may score on EVERY drive as he carves up that Steeler secondary.

5.5 seems awfully low, I would have expected that line at 8 or 9 and still taken NE.

What am I missing?

PITT's defense has come together I think Brady has difficulty scoring at will in this game...

 

[MadJack]

The early line is Pats -5.5 and O/U 51 in the AFC Championship game. Seems low, like really low. I know (as YYZ has pointed out multiple times) the home favorites were on a roll and Vegas is probably not doing well/not doing as well as they usually do but this looks like another easy one to take the favorite and the over.

The Steelers will probably score on most drives and a lot of them will likely bog down to FG's like we saw yesterday and Brady may score on EVERY drive as he carves up that Steeler secondary.

5.5 seems awfully low, I would have expected that line at 8 or 9 and still taken NE.

What am I missing?

LookseasytometoosoI'llprob

It looks easy to me too so I'll probably make a regular bet on PIT + and a small bet on PIT ML.

 

[Penguinfan]

PITT's defense has come together I think Brady has difficulty scoring at will in this game...

This is another one of those "perception is reality" things. I hear a lot of people talking about the defense improving, but is it really?

They did hold KC in check last night, granted and Miami had nothing to challenge anyone with. Prior to that they gave up 24 to Cleveland and while the offensive stars didn't play the defense was almost 100% intact for that game.

Gave up 27 to Baltimore who averaged 21/game, gave up 20 to Cincy who was a 6-9 team who averages 20 points a game, gave up 20 to Buffalo who was another sub .500 team (though they did average 24/game), not a playoff team in the bunch and they averaged giving up 20+/game.

I guess we have to consider the NYG a playoff team and the Steelers only gave up 14 there, but prior to that the other playoff teams they played scored 35, 27 and 30.

Where would you rank Brady and Co.? I'd say much higher than any of those teams, wouldn't you?

I just don't see how Pittsburgh stays with them when they are likely to put up 35. I honestly see this as a 35-24 type of game that is never really in doubt from the Pats point of view.

I'm a Steeler fan and I'd like to be wrong here, but I just don't see it any other way than the Steeler defense looking for answers that aren't there to be found.

 

[scrub]

I am a Patriots fan and I am all over Pittsburgh plus 6.I see this game being tight the whole way and I give Pittsburgh a really good chance to win Straight up so I need to sprinkle me some money line also

 

[Penguinfan]

I am a Patriots fan and I am all over Pittsburgh plus 6.I see this game being tight the whole way and I give Pittsburgh a really good chance to win Straight up so I need to sprinkle me some money line also

If you don't mind, could you elaborate as to why? Do you really think they won't have an answer for Bell? That could be the only thing I see turning this even close to a Steelers victory is controlling the clock and wearing down the Pats defensive front (which I really don't see happening).

 

[layinwood]

This is another one of those "perception is reality" things. I hear a lot of people talking about the defense improving, but is it really?

They did hold KC in check last night, granted and Miami had nothing to challenge anyone with. Prior to that they gave up 24 to Cleveland and while the offensive stars didn't play the defense was almost 100% intact for that game.

IMO if the KC WRs wouldn't have dropped so many key passes then Pitt would have been screwed. I'm a Pitt fan but I thought that was the key to KC losing. Smith put some passes right on the money but their WRs and even TE dropped them. Of course this could be because there is a fear when playing Pitt that your head is about to get KOd.

 

[sds222]

Best to check the injury report too, Hogan was hurt in the game and Malcolm Mitchell was out. Amendola got his first start from injury but didn't do anything. TE Martellus Bennett was banged up as well. The Pat's offense was not on par partly because they had to rely solely on Edelman, me thinks. Michael Floyd didn't look like he was in sync yet.
They, obviously, have to play much better against Ptt.