Australian Open

[Smitty]

Let's have some fun.

Shelton to advance further than Fritz 2 to win 3.2
Bublik to advance further than Musetti 2 to win 2

Zhizhen Zhang to win the whole damn thing. Bet as many units as you can get your hands on. Borrow, beg, and steal. Take kickserv's money. Personally, I'm betting $50M to win $10B. Or maybe I bet $10 to win $2K.

ZZ beat Cerundolo (the good one) 4 to win 7.6
Collignon (vs Musetti) win at least 2 sets 2 to win 3
Spizzirri (vs Fonseca) win at least 2 sets 5.2 to win 4
Spizzirri beat Fonseca 2 to win 3.2
Parlay Tien (vs Giron)/Majchrzak (vs Fearnley) 4 to win 5.2
Machac (vs Dimitrov) 2.7 to win 2
Opelka/Kjaer 1st set Over 10.5 2.3 to win 2

One bet on the ladies' side for now.

The Field (vs Swiatek & Sabalenka) 5 to win 4

 

[kickserv]

Zhizhen Zhang to win the whole damn thing. Bet as many units as you can get your hands on. Borrow, beg, and steal. Take kickserv's money. Personally, I'm betting $50M to win $10B. Or maybe I bet $10 to win $2K.

This should win easily, not sure why they are even playing the men's singles, just give the Title to Z.Z. and be done with it.

 

[rocky mountain]

This should win easily, not sure why they are even playing the men's singles, just give the Title to Z.Z. and be done with it.

Kick are you making plays too? Any of these from Smitty that you two both feel strongly? Is Australian Open matches late night? Sadly I only know football 😟

 

[Smitty]

Kick are you making plays too? Any of these from Smitty that you two both feel strongly? Is Australian Open matches late night? Sadly I only know football 😟

Kick will absolutely not answer if he feels strongly about any of my (or anyone else's) plays. You know, until the match is over. But he'll post his plays, I'm sure. And if there's any overlap, you'll get your answer.

Melbourne is 8 hours behind (well, really 16 hours ahead of) us on the East Coast, so matches start at 7PM here. Most matches will end after your bedtime. The late matches might be ending early in the morning here.

Just bet everything you have on ZZ. He's +191 in the first round, but those should be his odds to win the tournament. Just kidding. He should be -5,000. He's the true GOAT.

And, to be clear, because sarcasm can get lost in the written word... I am, of course, joking. A couple years ago I came across ZZ, probably when he was playing doubles with Machac. I won a few bets on them, and then on ZZ in singles, and it's just been a running joke ever since. He just missed most of 2025 with a shoulder injury, which he's actually been dealing with for years. He recently returned and played fairly well in the United Cup. Supposedly he's re-worked his forehand to prevent the shoulder injury from recurring. No idea if he's really in shape for 5-set matches. But, as good as Cerundolo is, I still consider him more of a clay court guy. So I'm taking a shot with ZZ for shits and giggles.

 

[rocky mountain]

Kick will absolutely not answer if he feels strongly about any of my (or anyone else's) plays. You know, until the match is over. But he'll post his plays, I'm sure. And if there's any overlap, you'll get your answer.

Melbourne is 8 hours behind (well, really 16 hours ahead of) us on the East Coast, so matches start at 7PM here. Most matches will end after your bedtime. The late matches might be ending early in the morning here.

Just bet everything you have on ZZ. He's +191 in the first round, but those should be his odds to win the tournament. Just kidding. He should be -5,000. He's the true GOAT.

And, to be clear, because sarcasm can get lost in the written word... I am, of course, joking. A couple years ago I came across ZZ, probably when he was playing doubles with Machac. I won a few bets on them, and then on ZZ in singles, and it's just been a running joke ever since. He just missed most of 2025 with a shoulder injury, which he's actually been dealing with for years. He recently returned and played fairly well in the United Cup. Supposedly he's re-worked his forehand to prevent the shoulder injury from recurring. No idea if he's really in shape for 5-set matches. But, as good as Cerundolo is, I still consider him more of a clay court guy. So I'm taking a shot with ZZ for shits and giggles.

Great info, yeah i was thinking i need to bet this ZZ guy, hes from China? Gl Smitty always the man with incredible handicapping information to parse through!

 

[Smitty]

Great info, yeah i was thinking i need to bet this ZZ guy, hes from China? Gl Smitty always the man with incredible handicapping information to parse through!

Yup, he's the highest ranked player out of China EVER. Well, he was, before the injury. I think he got into the mid-30s. Solid player, but not a guy who would ever contend for a major.

 

[kickserv]

Kick are you making plays too?

kickserv selections.....

Australian Open - January 18th - February 1st, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

2026 Tennis Record ---------------------------------- Parlay 0-1 Head to Head 2-1 Over/Under 0-0 Game Spread 2-2 Prop 2-3 Futures 0-0 +3.45 units Futures The winner of men's draw comes from the 2nd quarter $16.00 (+1500) *0.25 unit The winner of men's draw comes from the 3rd quarter $9.95...

www.madjacksports.com

 

[kickserv]

Kick will absolutely not answer if he feels strongly about any of my (or anyone else's) plays. You know, until the match is over.

Yep, I find it is really easy to win money when you bet after the match is over. I win 80 percent of the time wnen I know the result, yes I am that good.

 

[Smitty]

Ladies...

Elena-Gabriela Ruse (vs Yastremska) 4 to win 4.4
Sramkova (vs Ostepenko, who's injured) 4.7 to win 4
Fruhvirtova (vs Sun) 2 to win 2.5

Valentova to win her Quarter 1 to win 22

 

[kickserv]

Zhizhen Zhang to win the whole damn thing. Bet as many units as you can get your hands on. Borrow, beg, and steal. Take kickserv's money. Personally, I'm betting $50M to win $10B. Or maybe I bet $10 to win $2K.

He's +191 in the first round

Oh no.....Zhang loses in straight sets in the first round...oh no

 

[Smitty]

Oh no.....Zhang loses in straight sets in the first round...oh no

that seems unlikely

 

[kickserv]

that seems unlikely

It happened.

 

[rocky mountain]

that seems unlikely

CCP has a Draftsking account too perhaps ?

 

[Smitty]

Rock, I can just imagine what you searched on to find that .gif.

 

[Smitty]

Collignon (vs Musetti) win at least 2 sets 2 to win 3

 

[kickserv]

Bet voided, so ya didn't lose, all is fine.

 

[Smitty]

Bet voided, so ya didn't lose, all is fine.

yup. i'll take it.

here's a question, mr former professional tennis player.... your opponent hits a short shot near the side line that brings you up to the net. you hit your return down the line. don't you have to cover the middle to take away the cross-court and force your opponent to make the tougher shot over the higher part of the net, back down the line? just today i've seen 3 different players in this situation, and all 3 stayed on the line, allowing the opponent to hit an easy cross-court winner. i was yelling at the TV on the last one... TAKE AWAY THE CROSS-COURT!! they never listen. seems like pretty basic shit to me... gotta at least make the other guy hit the tougher shot.

 

[kickserv]

yup. i'll take it.

here's a question, mr former professional tennis player.... your opponent hits a short shot near the side line that brings you up to the net. you hit your return down the line. don't you have to cover the middle to take away the cross-court and force your opponent to make the tougher shot over the higher part of the net, back down the line? just today i've seen 3 different players in this situation, and all 3 stayed on the line, allowing the opponent to hit an easy cross-court winner. i was yelling at the TV on the last one... TAKE AWAY THE CROSS-COURT!! they never listen. seems like pretty basic shit to me... gotta at least make the other guy hit the tougher shot.

Well that has been a debate since oh I'd say World War I (when you had to wear long pants and a top-hat on court).....there is no "right way" to answer that question. It all comes down to a couple of things:

When you are at the net.....

1. Is the player hitting a forehand or backhand (tougher to read a forehand passing shot then a back-hand passing shot, or at least it was for me)

2. How much time does the player have to pas you

3. Where in the court did the ball land (how deep was it)


Actually I could go on and on, so many variables....but I'll leave with this.....

Let's say "all things are equal", in my mind you should always "shade a bit" towards the line, yes it is the higher part of the net but it is the shorter shot and it leaves more of the court for you to hit the volley.


But yes as I said above there is no real right answer, it depends on a ton of factors. For me, on the backhand (when player was at the net) it was way easier to hit down the line or a cross court lob. Main reason for that was I had a two hand backhand, and that it is a longer shot to hit cross court (gives person at the net more time to react).


So yeah, I didn't really answer your question because well.....there is no right answer.





But I will say this though, if your opponent keeps hitting the same passing shot over and over again and you don't anticipate it, the it is on you, ya gotta read what is going on.

 

[kickserv]

gotta at least make the other guy hit the tougher shot.

It depends on what the "tougher shot" actually is....it depends on the player, yes obviously any dude ranked in the Top 500 can hit any shot blindfolded, but......

Some guys find one shot way easier than another, and some have way more confidence in one shot then another, and of course it depends on what stage of the match (nerves) you are at.

Not that I ever played in Grand Slams or anything (nowhere close to that good), so not comparing myself to the guys at that level, but for me if somebody hit a shot down the line and attacked the net, the "tougher shot" for me would be cross court for back hand and down the line for forehand. Meaning, the "tougher shot" was what I thought the "tougher shot" is not the dimensions of the court.

Now if it a match between two robots and it all came down to physics, and the ball was in one corner of the court and the one robot was standing in middle of court at the net, then yes I guess the "tougher shot" would be cross court because the distance is greater. But even then you have higher part of the net down the line so who the fuck knows.




All I can tell you is this......as a kid starting out I was always told to "cover the line", that sticks in your head, it is like a reflex. I bet today if you went to any elite Tennis Academy (for juniors) anywhere in the World, I'd bet big money the coaches are telling little kids the same thing I was told "cover the line".

 

[kickserv]

your opponent hits a short shot near the side line that brings you up to the net. you hit your return down the line. don't you have to cover the middle to take away the cross-court and force your opponent to make the tougher shot over the higher part of the net, back down the line?

Just have rocky mountain answer the question, he'd have the right answer.