Back by popular demand - WEEK 7

[Jimboski]

Er.... . ah, well UCbearcats asked for me to post something. :look:

Been doing some serious no. crunching and juggling for this week. Note the "new" avatar that reflects what I thought about last week's action. And what I went through trying to figure out what the hell happened.

No worries - I think this guy will be back soon.

I did ask around here someplace if anybody can tell me what the hell happened in that Indiana/Virginia game. Looks like that answer is " ".

The Bad News
How could something I rely on that uses valid data that has been modified (hours and hours of blood, sweat and fears) to make it even MORE valid be soooo wrong about one of it's TOP plays? And that wasn't the only STRONG pick that got creamed last week either. Fortunately, the "Cruncher's methods have been positive overall so far but it is bad news that it could hone in on such a massacre.

The Good News
I fed the monster some more data chow (last week's results and ran the analysis that makes it "re-adjust" the modifiers it uses on the team matchup factors.

I also checked to see if it is improving as we continue to stuff it's ugly face with more data week by week. It's a long story how I do this, the bottom line is "YES" - it is getting better and better. Now, that doesn't mean that it's gonna have a better and better winning % (although it should mean that) but, for sure, it does mean that the formulas are strengthening and getting more and more positive for the factors that it has shown to be the most important ones from the getgo. Pretty much - if you use it's latest formulas on the earlier week's plays - the results improve week by week.

Last thing - I'm running a separate analysis to establish it's Line for the game based on all the factors. That part is looking good too, but some games go way off base (like, REAL line is -10 and it's line is -1). I ONLY give this aspect a little weight when I filter out it's results to establish the STRONGEST PLAYS from the others. I'm not as much of a believer of this Line Thingy as I am from the results that it's been giving me all along. If anybody wants me to also include the Line Thang with my list of plays, let me know. Just don't let it through you off for now.
Ok, nuff of that stuff.


:violin:
This week's Cruncher POWERHOUSES

Pudue +14

Northwestern +14

Wisc -3: I am holding off on this one. I rechecked the new results I put in from last week and it's all correct; but how it came up with this play I dunno?? I could check every calculation it did, step by step, to find out but forget that cause I ain't that much of a numbers freak. Might be Wiskey's strong pass defense and the fact that Iowa has been tailing off (ATS) lately. Yes, Iowa's pass def. is even stronger, BUT Iowa relies on the passing game much more heavily than Wishkey does. I doubt I'll pull the trigger on this one. I've already indicated around here how much I respect the Hawkeyes.

Iowa St. -3

New Mexico St. +20: I made it +21, but that may not be necessary. I LUV when it picks any of them there Mexican squads. They've both been berry good to me (as a guy named Sosa used to say when doing his imitation of another guy named Hernandez (Marlins World Championship Team).

Idaho -9: Psst... . . red is a good thing
Arizona -5

Arizona St. -7

N. Texas -2: I'm on this one, but I should mention that you do need to be careful with these Mickey Mouse type teams; they are kinda UN predictable. Still, like the others - this one comes up as a STRONG PLAY.


The "Cruncher may gone bonkers when it picked this one" play":

Central Fla +15: Oh Kay, Chrunchy. :142smilie .
How bout the projected line for this one -> -2.9. That would be C.F. giving Miami pts.:mj07: Am I on this one? Hah HAH, I don't sink so, Chrunchy.

Ooops, before I forget - Good Luck, LDB.

 

[Jimboski]

Place is still jumping at 3 A.M. ... WOW

Place is still jumping at 3 A.M. ... WOW

Can't believe it; I just hit the refresh button right after I posted and there were 6 clipboarders in here already. Place is great.:00hour

 

[boilermaker]

Jimboski, I would be leary of Purdue. I follow the Boilers very closely and I think they have cashed it in. Last week against Minnesota they flat out quit after blowing a 10 point lead. Their season has been one blown lead after another and I think it has finally broke their spirts. BOL in whatever you play.

 

[Jimboski]

Purdue/ STATE

Purdue/ STATE

Thanks for the heads up, Boilermaker. I always appreciate intelligent discussions. Sorry i got on so late today; slept in till around 1 p.m. Note the time I posted my (er... Chrunchy's) picks last "night".

No matter when I get on though, afterthoughts don't save me cause I almost ALWAYS playem for real BEFORE I postem. I think it's only fair that, if somebody is playing along that i don't know of or a clipboarder puts a check on the huge clipboard he's carrying around before he make his quick exit :mj07: - well, I should either join in their celebration or share their crying towel after the games are done.

This early in the season my plays are only one or two units on ALMOST all the picks. Red ones get some mo.

Here's my thoughts when I evaluated the Purdue game:

- I really like it if a mechanical method (like good ole Chrunchy) picks AGAINST a high profile squad like Ohio State. I'm sure their are many FANS who just see whose playing who .... and jump on the high profile team. I think the line has automatically swayed in your/mine favor if the not-so-popular team REALLY has a shot at covering.

- State has been hit with the flu bug. AND has more injured players. As always, most or all are not starters, but this DOES affect their depth today.

- Worser yet - their starting RB, think it's Herron, is not starting today. Best of all, the No. Cruncher didn't even "know" that.

- Last year, Boilermakers (ha HaH, I just realized that your info. is most valid) covered more comfortably than the score indicated and 11 of those player are on the field today.

There's at least one more point that I can't recall right now but I think there's plenty here to justify the pick methinks.

So far - it looks like we gotta score one for the Cruncher.

Hope to communicate withya again, Boilermaker.
Take a good look at Arizona St. tonight.

 

[boilermaker]

Hope the hell you didn't listen to me. What the hell do I know? Nice call :toast:

 

[oceanguy]

thx for the overview of your analysis last week :toast: appreciate that you took the time to tell me all that BUT had I known how complicated it was I never would have asked :mj07:

anyway BOL on all yer plays dis week :00hour

 

[Jimboski]

I'm a complex Dude I guess.

I'm a complex Dude I guess.

EVERYTHING I do is complicated, OG. Remember, Ask questions at your own risk.

Maybe someday all the complicated stuff I go through will pay off for both of us :142smilie

Check out Ariz. State tonight, OG. But DON'T complicate the issue. I already did that.

GL

 

[Wolver98]

Nice call on Pur. I was on OSU, how over rated can one team and qb be?

 

[Jimboski]

Good to see ya

Good to see ya

Thanks Wolver.

I know what you're saying cause I was leery about pulling the trigger on that one myself. May be my lucky week cause I did act on that play and skipped the Wisc. play. I don't see myself fading Iowa for awhile no matter what the Sheet sez.

Pretty much though, just sticking with the spreadsheet works best for me.

Best of luck to ya the rest of the way, Wolver.

 

[Wolver98]

Thanks. Tailed you on NM St. and I hope I didn't jinx you.

 

[Jimboski]

Great

Great

I know this ain't the time of the year (Halloween) for me to write/say this - but there ain't no such thing, Wolver.

Your vote just adds one more good spirit rooting for US.

GL tonight.

 

[Jimboski]

OUCH

OUCH

Looking pretty good so far. One of the Bestest Bets paid off in addition to the other winners.

Man, sorry bout that New Mexico St. game, Wolver. Wish you woulda liked one of the red picks instead. I can't understand the beat downs that happen from time to time.:shrug:

Still time for the Arizona State play, gang.

 

[Jimboski]

Wrap up time

Wrap up time

Got plenty of time today cause I ain't too swift with NFLers and pretty much steer clear of them. There's too much parity in Pro sports for me.

It took me 5 TIMES to figure how my posted plays did (and I've set up a spread sheet in Excel? Duh!). Doing it "clipboarders" style, I'm pretty sure it's 5-3-1. Correct me if I screwed up on this.

But, here's my style (remember, like I replied to somebody around here - complicated is GOOD THING with this stuff). Just an idea for the record keepers...

Purdue = 1 point
N.Western = 1 point
Wisc. = -1/2 (there is a reason for the comments)
Iowa State = 1 point
N. Mex St.= - 2 points (beat down)
Idaho = 2 points (RED, best bet)
Arizona = 1 point
Ariz. St = - 1/2 point (push, but NOT a winning Red, best)
N. Texas = - 1 point (really should be 1/2 on account of the comment, but I don't want to complicate things )

I'll let somebody else add up that mess :mj07:

For me, it turned out good and maybe somebody will like my idea about how to playem. JUST TO SHARE AN IDEA, here's how I playem... ..

When the line is:
+/- 3 ->BUY the dang hook in the appropriate direction.

-3 1/2 -> Get it to -3 for single side plays and down to -2 1/2 in parlays (cause you're laying out less moola)

-7 -> Get it to -6 (with the help of a LOT of LUCK, it sho paid off yesterday, and plenty of other times as well)

+/- 10 -> git da hook.

+/-1 -> Don't buy a thing.

Now, how bout that Ariz. St game? Found out by closely watching it that State is not as good as I thought and Wash. is a little better than I thought. QB has to carry them though. I coulda swore my goose was cooked. Went a little overboard on that play. LUVIT:00hour

Really sorry about the only tailer - best to play the red teams IF YOU ALSO LIKE the play or... do like I do and just playem all; that's been working. I think that advice will change to "PLAYEM ALL" into the tail end of the season. At least I HOPE so. It sure worked last year.

Stay tuned cause more data for the Cruncher should mean that things should continue to get better I HOPE.

GL NFLing today.