Bases Tues 4/21
- Thread starter Junior44
- Start date
Cleveland (Messick) -140 over Houston (Weiss) (3x)
-Cleveland inexplically lost to the lowly Astros last night making Houston 2-9 on the road this season. Tonight Cleveland evens the series. The Guardians start LHP Parker Messick who has been nearly unhittable so far this season, going 4-0 and allowing just 3 ER's in 25 2/3 IP for an ERA of 1.05 (with all starts at home) Overall, in his career, Messick is 6-1 dating back to last year. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros this season, going just 2-9 on the road and standing at 9-15 overall, the worst record in baseball. Their pitching staff gives up 5.94 runs/game and I can't see it getting any better with tonight's starter Ryan Weiss, who is 0-1 this year in his only start of his career, with and ERA of 6.00 in just 3 2/3 IP. In 6 appearances in 2026 his is 0-2 giving up 12 ER's in 14 2/3 IP for and ERA of 7.40. Cleveland is 7-4 at home and currently in first place in the AL Central. Play Cleveland
-Cleveland inexplically lost to the lowly Astros last night making Houston 2-9 on the road this season. Tonight Cleveland evens the series. The Guardians start LHP Parker Messick who has been nearly unhittable so far this season, going 4-0 and allowing just 3 ER's in 25 2/3 IP for an ERA of 1.05 (with all starts at home) Overall, in his career, Messick is 6-1 dating back to last year. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros this season, going just 2-9 on the road and standing at 9-15 overall, the worst record in baseball. Their pitching staff gives up 5.94 runs/game and I can't see it getting any better with tonight's starter Ryan Weiss, who is 0-1 this year in his only start of his career, with and ERA of 6.00 in just 3 2/3 IP. In 6 appearances in 2026 his is 0-2 giving up 12 ER's in 14 2/3 IP for and ERA of 7.40. Cleveland is 7-4 at home and currently in first place in the AL Central. Play Cleveland
Cleveland (Messick) RL +155 over Houston (Weiss) (1x)
-4 out of 5 of Messick's last 5 starts have been won by 2 or more runs.
-4 out of 5 of Messick's last 5 starts have been won by 2 or more runs.
Cincinnati (Burns) vs Tampa Bay (Matz) Under 8 (1x)
-Both of these pitchers are off to hot starts in 2026 with Connor Burns coming in with a 2.22 ERA and Steven Matz posting a 2.36 ERA. Yesterday's game between these 2 teams yielded 7 runs (after a 3-run first) with worse starting pitchers. Burns is a career 1-1 vs the Rays with a 2.12 ERA while Matz is 4-0 vs the Reds with a 3.21 ERA. Play Cinci/TB Under the total of 8.
-Both of these pitchers are off to hot starts in 2026 with Connor Burns coming in with a 2.22 ERA and Steven Matz posting a 2.36 ERA. Yesterday's game between these 2 teams yielded 7 runs (after a 3-run first) with worse starting pitchers. Burns is a career 1-1 vs the Rays with a 2.12 ERA while Matz is 4-0 vs the Reds with a 3.21 ERA. Play Cinci/TB Under the total of 8.
Miami (Paddack) +106 over St Louis (May)
-Once again, one of my favorite go-against pitcher Chris Paddack takes the mound for the Marlins. But, THIS time I am going to back him. Paddack, after a rough 2 starts, he has had 2 good starts, allowing just 4 ER's in 10 2/3 IP for an ERA of 3.39. Furthermore, Paddack has his best record against ANY team in baseball, with a career ERA of 1.32 vs the Cards. Meanwhile, Dustin May has battled injuries for the last few years and stands at 0-2 on the road, giving up 13 ER's in just 7 1/3 IP with 17 hits for an ERA of 16.03. In is last start against the Marlins, he took the loss, giving up 7 ER's in 5 1/2 IP. Play Miami
-Once again, one of my favorite go-against pitcher Chris Paddack takes the mound for the Marlins. But, THIS time I am going to back him. Paddack, after a rough 2 starts, he has had 2 good starts, allowing just 4 ER's in 10 2/3 IP for an ERA of 3.39. Furthermore, Paddack has his best record against ANY team in baseball, with a career ERA of 1.32 vs the Cards. Meanwhile, Dustin May has battled injuries for the last few years and stands at 0-2 on the road, giving up 13 ER's in just 7 1/3 IP with 17 hits for an ERA of 16.03. In is last start against the Marlins, he took the loss, giving up 7 ER's in 5 1/2 IP. Play Miami
NY Yankees (Gil) vs Boston (Early) Under 9 -115 (3x)
Red Sox pitcher Connelly Early has been dynamic so far in 2026, posting a 2.03 ERA in 4 starts, while Yankees pitcher Luis Gil has a career record of 11-5 on the road. His road performance has been solid over 20 away games in his career, showing an ability to win outside of his home stadium. In addition, Gil has a 2-1 record with a 0.99 ERA and 26 strikeouts across 5 appearances vs Boston. In addition this is always a tough-fought series games between these 2 and the Under is 7-1-2 their last 10 matchups.
Red Sox pitcher Connelly Early has been dynamic so far in 2026, posting a 2.03 ERA in 4 starts, while Yankees pitcher Luis Gil has a career record of 11-5 on the road. His road performance has been solid over 20 away games in his career, showing an ability to win outside of his home stadium. In addition, Gil has a 2-1 record with a 0.99 ERA and 26 strikeouts across 5 appearances vs Boston. In addition this is always a tough-fought series games between these 2 and the Under is 7-1-2 their last 10 matchups.
Not saying this to be a dick, but where do you get ur stats? The era’s you post for SP’s are rarely right. The only reason I know is because play in a $1,000 mlb fantasy league and I have to know lol. But seriously man, they are always off. Just a heads up.
Your post sorta jumped out to me, so I thought I would randomly pull a stat to check--Paddack, Miami, last two games.
Checked against Statmuse. They are spot on. So, clearly, your "they are always off" is full of shit. Care to cite specific examples of what you are talking about, instead of a highly critical generalization?
If you are not saying this to be a dick, why do come across like a dick? Maybe you just don't know how to talk in a civil way?
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Maybe I don’t. Either way, I was asking where he gets his stats cause they see to be off. Fact check my shit, and I’ll say I’m wrong when I’m wrong. We’re all here to make money. If i’m capping on A site with wrong info, i’d certainly want to know.
Thanks for providing the examples. I guess, for me, there's a nice way to ask a question or make a point, and there's another way. Maybe offering to share your stats source with Junior-- to say, 'hey, I follow this stuff closely too and my site has some different numbers" as opposed to "rarely right" and "always off" ? Also, it just gets old to see good cappers here sharing their time and picks only to have people bitch about their record/accounting or whatever. The guys who **try** to lie and post bogus records, etc. are pretty obvious. But I would hope we can have a little more grace for folks like Jr who clearly put in a lot of time to cap and may make an honest error or two along the way. Just my two cents. Good luck with your picks and fantasy league.
Since there's only one way to compute an ERA, maybe some sites occasionally, or for other reasons, compute it on more or less games than the other place. Just a guess.
Good luck... tailing you today with the addition of Ramirez over .5 on hr 👍
My guess is numbers ai/llm derived. I’ve found that info is often very unreliable. Doesn’t really matter tho the guy posts his record and unless that’s inaccurate who cares if some stats are off.
I think he's letting Junior know that he may be relying on faulty info for his handicapping.
Most of the discrepancies he listed were fairly minor, but the Matz #s are a big difference.
My guess is he’s not actually relying on those numbers and he’s having an LLM create a narrative for his plays (which are made for other reasons). It’s very easy to do I’ve done it And those incorporate tons of incorrect stats and factoids.
Again I don’t care it’s a bottom line business. The “write ups” are unnecessary window dressing.
